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President Obama in North Carolina; Where Does Presidential Race Stand?; . Aired 3-3:30p ET

Aired November 2, 2016 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[15:00:25]

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Top of the hour. You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you for being with me.

In moments, Hillary Clinton's surrogate-in-chief, President Obama, is set to take the stage in the battleground state of North Carolina. James Taylor on the stage right now getting the crowd revved up in Chapel Hill.

This is a state, North Carolina, this is a state the president, the then senator, won in 2008, but he lost four years ago. How will that translate come 2016 and specifically in just six days from now on Election Day?

CNN has brand-new polls out from four battleground states, one of which Donald Trump himself says is a must-win if he wants to be in the White House.

So let's begin the hour with Mark Preston, our CNN politics executive editor, who can work through some of the numbers.

So, let's just control roll through this quickly and I will let our viewers know. So, we will look at the numbers. In Arizona, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by five points. In Florida, Clinton is ahead by two. In Nevada, that race has shifted with Trump now ahead 49 to 43 percent, and in Pennsylvania, Clinton holding a four-point edge.

Mark Preston, what do you think of all of this?

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: Well, if you're Donald Trump, those are pretty good numbers, given the fact we thought his campaign was all but over a week ago. Then, of course, the e-mail scandal, the Comey reopening of the investigation came to light.

Look, when you're Donald Trump and you are that close in Arizona, that is concerning. But the fact of the matter is, at least he is up five. In Florida, he is virtually tied. In North Carolina right now, which we know that President Barack Obama is going to be there shortly, as well as on Friday, another must-win state, we know the African- American vote is not as high as it was in the early absentees four years ago and also down in Florida, too, Brooke.

We're seeing a decrease by about 3.2 percent of the African-American vote. So, you look at those. And in Pennsylvania, the fact is, he's within four right now. So Donald Trump still has a very tough road to get to 270 or at least cross that threshold, but he's in a better position today than he was a week ago.

BALDWIN: OK. Mark, thank you so much.

I want to parse these some of these numbers and just have a bigger conversation with CNN chief political analyst Gloria Borger. Ed O'Keefe is with us as well, political reporter for "The Washington Post." April Ryan is here, White House correspondent for American Urban Radio Networks, and Brian Stelter, CNN's media correspondent and host of "RELIABLE SOURCES."

So, awesome to have you all on here, as we are six days away, but big picture, Gloria, and we ran through the numbers and we will go through some of those states again. But the fact that Hillary Clinton -- I was just talking to somebody from "The Detroit Free Press" -- the fact that they have added this stop in the Detroit on Friday, you could call it the bluest of blue, I don't -- I think it was red in '88 and that was it. Why are they doing this?

GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, she has got to keep her blue wall, the firewall. And Michigan is a really important part of it.

Obviously, Republicans are seeing some numbers tighten. I think they're probably going to be heartened in the Clinton campaign today that the polling out of Wisconsin shows her up six points there, so they can breathe a sigh of relief about the state of Wisconsin, not that they're worried about it, but it's part of their blue wall.

So, look, when you talk to the Clinton people, they will tell you, we are spending money there, we are doing these things because we can, because we have the money. But when you are sending a candidate to the state of Michigan this close to the election, she is really trying to beef up their get-out-the-vote operation, particularly as you can see Mark was pointing out in the state of Florida, African-American early voting down.

They need to get out their base of support. And Michigan, Detroit, Michigan, is very much a part of that. And they don't want to take any chances on their blue wall. They don't care how they get to 270. They just want to make sure they get there, Brooke.

BALDWIN: North Carolina, let me hone in on that, April, with you. The president is about to speak at Chapel Hill. I'm a proud graduate of UNC Chapel Hill. So, I'm thrilled that they're rolling through.

But what is much more serious is the fact that he is specifically addressing African-Americans. We have heard him talk about his legacy before, but I want to just play some sound before we chat. He was on "Tom Joyner" this morning and here's what he said.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I need everybody to understand that everything we have done is dependent on me being able to pass the baton to somebody who believes in the same things I believe in.

[15:05:07]

And so if you really care about my presidency and what we have accomplished, then you're going to go and vote.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

BALDWIN: April, you tell me if it sounds like he is sounding the alarm, especially in a place like North Carolina, which he lost in 2012. Is it realistic to think the same enthusiasm and numbers of black voters will show up in six days?

APRIL RYAN, AMERICAN URBAN RADIO NETWORKS: Well, that's the question.

And right now, Brooke, as we're seeing, we're hearing reports that early voting for African-Americans is lower. And I have talked to the head of the NAACP, Cornell Brooks. He said, look, he said specifically in a place like North Carolina, there is a concern about logistics, the fact that some of the polls have diminished in precincts where there's a high concentration of African-Americans.

So there's a big concern there. But there's also still across the nation, there's still a lag in the numbers for early voting or what they anticipated when it comes to African-Americans. And again Cornell Brooks said he is expecting that there will be a rush of African-Americans on November 8.

But President Obama is definitely trying to sound the alarm as loud as he can. He's telling people, look, health care will be rolled back, everything that he worked for, climate change issues, just things that are intrinsic for the nation, as well as particularly focusing in on African-Americans, they will change if Donald Trump becomes president.

And he really wants to make sure that his legacy is continued with number 45 if that is Hillary Clinton.

BALDWIN: Meantime, on Trump, and, Ed, this one is to you, the fact that he's not stepping in it, he is not tweeting who knows what at 3:00 in the morning, he is talking about substance, he is talking about those Obamacare premiums going up, he's talking about the FBI reopening its review of the Hillary Clinton e-mails, and it could be working for him.

ED O'KEEFE, "THE WASHINGTON POST": It could be.

I look at the way he's comported himself in the last few days the same exact way he did in the days after Secretary Clinton's health scare there on 9/11 at the commemoration in New York, the idea that suddenly they realized, oh, my goodness, we may actually have a chance to sneak ahead here, let's keep our eye on the prize, let's be disciplined, let's be scripted, let's talk about things that help bring Republicans home, and maybe we can pull ahead. And they have to be encouraged by what they're seeing, staving her off in Arizona, keeping ahead of her in Nevada, although I would question some of the polling that has been done by virtually everyone out there and that it doesn't necessarily totally the Hispanic voter universe in those two states, and somehow tightening things up in Pennsylvania and Michigan and keeping even in Florida.

By doing all of that, if he can keep at it for the rest of the week, one might think we have a very late night next Tuesday if he can at least find one or two of his ways to get to 270, which are limited, but still possible based on what the polling is showing us at this point.

BALDWIN: Before next Tuesday, we could have a late night tonight, depending on how many innings are played in game seven of the World Series.

So if I may transition to Brian Stelter and talk baseball, this is all relevant with politics, because I was sitting in my office and I was wondering, this is the perfect place to put it, to buy an ad when so many Americans are staying tuned to the game tonight. And you found out how many ads and in which camp.

BRIAN STELTER, CNN SENIOR MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: Both campaigns buying ads tonight for a game seven that no one thought would actually happen. The Indians looked to be running away with it, but now the Cubs are back, and so this historic game seven has Clinton with at least four ads tonight, Trump with three ads.

It's all actually still being worked out. So, we will see if all those ads get on the air tonight. You can imagine lots of advertisers are trying to get in the game. But you're right, Brooke. This game will have about 30 million viewers tonight. It's the last chance to be in front of that many viewers all at the same time. So what ads will the campaigns buy?

BALDWIN: Yes.

STELTER: Will they go positive? Will they go more negative? That's what we will find out tonight.

There's also an NRA ad, by the way, pro-Trump NRA. So we will see a number of political ads tonight. Hopefully, they won't make the game too much of a bummer or a putdown. Otherwise, it is going to be a very exciting game tonight.

BALDWIN: Ed, I don't how big of a baseball fan you are, or I bet you are a Nate Silver 538 fan. So, Nate Silver said that Donald Trump had about the best chance of winning as the Cubs winning the World Series. This is when they were down 3-1. They're about to potentially win tonight, Ed.

O'KEEFE: Yes.

Look, I'm more of a Yankees or Nationals fan, but since our fan Manu Raju is such a big Cubs fans, tonight, I'm with them. And we will see if they can pull it off in Cleveland. That, and you could also look at the fact the Redskins tied and here in D.C., we keep track of that and the results of the Redskins. They have a bye weekend this weekend. So we have to look at the tie game ahead of London.

[15:10:00]

And that would suggest perhaps a very interesting night on election night, because it might suggest they will be very even. We will see.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: We will see.

O'KEEFE: Why are you asking me the sports questions? Goodness.

BALDWIN: Listen, I was at the Series. I was in Fenway three years ago, when the Sox ended up -- they ended up grabbing it in the end.

But, Gloria, we will move away from baseball quickly. We just got new numbers. This is from Quinnipiac on North Carolina.

BORGER: Please.

BALDWIN: I'm moving on. I'm moving on.

North Carolina, look at that. She -- Hillary Clinton is ahead just by a couple percentage points, as we are waiting to hear from Obama, from the president in North Carolina. Still really close.

BORGER: That's really important to her. It's a very important state for Hillary Clinton, a very important state for Donald Trump. She has got to win. One easy path for her would be through North Carolina.

And there's other got news in that Quinnipiac poll for Trump, however, which is that this same poll now just said -- and we just got it in minutes ago -- that Trump is up 46-41 in Ohio.

BALDWIN: I'm listening to you and I'm thinking about North Carolina and that makes me also think of the president.

April, you also heard the interview that President Obama did with now this news where he was asked about this FBI investigation. And obviously this is something the Hillary Clinton campaign really doesn't wants us talking about. They don't want voters to be thinking about it.

But instead of the president saying, I don't really want to comment, it's an ongoing investigation, he did step into it. He talked about a leaky FBI and the innuendo and an ongoing investigation. And I don't know. Why do you think he did that the way he did?

RYAN: Well, one, you have to remember the stakes are very high.

And when we talk about the stakes being high, it's high not just for one community. It's high for all communities in this nation. And this president is very concerned with how things are playing out. He's watching just like we are watching.

He's so concerned that he's going back to North Carolina. He is going to be in Fayetteville on the 4th of November. So, North Carolina is a big state. And the White House is looking at this and saying, you know, wow, I had a problem when I was running. But, wow, this is something different.

And so this is unheard of. There is no precedent. But this is setting a precedent to have these leaks about this, this letter going to Congress from the FBI director 11 days or so before the election. That's unheard of. But the president, being a constitutional attorney himself and understanding the processes, he is definitely still moving forward. He has not shrinked or moved away from Hillary Clinton.

And he's trying to show people this is the same thing he wants them do, not shrink and move away from Hillary Clinton and keep moving forward and go vote for her.

BALDWIN: Yes.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Thank you, April.

And I'm looking at these pictures of Bill Clinton. I'm reminded of how much of a help he was to President Obama just four years ago. I think, just even in that final week, he made four stops in one day stumping for the president.

Go ahead, Ed.

O'KEEFE: Brooke, just we talk about unprecedented. I think it's important to remember here it's also unprecedented having a sitting president campaigning as aggressively, as frequently as he has been.

He is enjoying approval numbers at this point north of 50 percent. Ronald Reagan barely did this for George Bush. Bill Clinton didn't do it for Al Gore.

(CROSSTALK)

O'KEEFE: Yes. There's a reason. He's popular. And the states in which...

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Say it again, April.

RYAN: Gore and Clinton did not get along in the waning days.

Some of that reason was for -- we know what happened, the impeachment and things that came along with that. And that's one of the reasons why Clinton was not on the campaign trail for Gore. And then let's move down into George W. Bush and McCain. They didn't have the best relationship either, so let's -- if we're going to talk about history, let's fill out the facts when you're talking about history. (CROSSTALK)

O'KEEFE: That's what I was doing.

All I saying is that it's unprecedented to have a sitting president doing this. And it's an important thing for Clinton, because the president can go not only to the African-American community, but to so many of these swing states and say please turn out and help bolster my legacy. It's an incredibly important thing that he's doing.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: What about the first lady? Go ahead, Gloria.

BORGER: Yes.

I want to talk about the first lady, too. I also think what we see from both the first lady and from the president is that this is turning very personal for them. We heard the first lady come out after the "Access Hollywood" videotape and gave a very powerful speech to women about that videotape, although she didn't mention Trump by name.

And now we have the president, who used to joke about Trump to a great degree on the campaign trail. He's not joking anymore. He understands that something has shifted and that his legacy is at stake. And I think he believes everything he believes is at stake.

And so his tone now is much more serious. And when you have a president of the United States talking about innuendo from his own FBI director, you get a sense of how, I think, as an attorney, offended the president was by this announcement.

[15:15:14]

It was very clear to me from listening to the president talk about this that he was not happy with the decision the FBI director made.

STELTER: I just can't but wonder. The power of the presidency is real, of course, up until his final day in office.

But I have to wonder if this has some diminishing returns as he is on the stump, as he speaks out against Trump. Is there anything new at this point President Obama or the first lady can say, anything new that will create a new sound bite, generate a new news cycle, or is this really just about getting local media attention and cable news coverage at this point?

BORGER: It's really about getting out the vote.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Getting out the vote. Getting out the vote. He will be speaking momentarily in Chapel Hill.

Ed, Gloria, April, and Brian, thank you all so much. The president in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, that's happening moments away. Live pictures. We're back in a flash.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:20:10]

BALDWIN: The candidates and their top surrogates, they are out and about today, as we are six days away.

We have got some live pictures. There he is in that red hat. There you have Donald Trump. He's taking part in a roundtable there in the all-important state of Florida.

By the way, the vice president, he is in Florida today. We just saw pictures of Bill Clinton. He's stumping for his wife in Iowa.

And as we talk about all this, obviously, we're watching and waiting as well to hear President Obama speaking in Chapel Hill, North Carolina.

A well-known Democrat says be wary of a hidden Trump vote. I'm talking about former -- Ed Rendell -- Ed Rendell, former Pennsylvania governor and former DNC chair.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

ED RENDELL (D), FORMER PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR: I think there is a hidden Donald Trump vote like there was a hidden Frank Rizzo vote. And I think all this talk about being over and now the real contest is the Senate, I think is going to persuade a couple of Hillary Clinton voters and Democratic voters to say, what do I have to stand on line for an hour for?

If I were the Clinton team, I would be desperately worried about that type of talk, desperately.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Let's begin there.

I have got Lanhee Chen back me, CNN political commentator and a former Mitt Romney public policy director.

Good to see you.

LANHEE CHEN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Good to see you.

BALDWIN: On the notion of the hidden vote -- and I have heard this from Trump folks -- I just talked to a Trump surrogate last hour. And he says, Brooke, they're whispering me on the Metro in D.C. I don't want to say this too loud, but I'm with you.

CHEN: Yes.

BALDWIN: Is that a potential for next Tuesday? CHEN: It might be.

I think the more likely answer is, this is a turnout play. Right? This last week is going to come down to turnout vs. momentum. And so for the Clinton campaign, it's all what are the different ways we can turn out the people we need to turn out to win this election?

So, Ed Rendell saying that I think is less about they're actually being a hidden Trump vote and more about making sure that their voters get out to vote.

BALDWIN: Can I ask you just to go a couple years back when you were with Romney and you -- we were talking in commercial break and you referred to this as the siren song.

CHEN: Yes.

BALDWIN: You all really all of a sudden made an 11th hour play for Pennsylvania, just as the Trump team clearly is doing that in Michigan. How did that go for you?

CHEN: Yes. Yes. Well, it didn't go well, because there were a couple things that happened, basically.

We had the hurricane four years. We did show some movement in Pennsylvania. So, we began to make a play there. Now I think the challenge with this is that every campaign that is maybe a little bit behind or a lot behind in some cases looks for, what are the other pathways we possibly can use to get to the 270 electoral votes we need?

I think the Trump campaign, that's why they're playing in Michigan now, in essence, because...

BALDWIN: Who in Michigan? Is it that white working-class...

CHEN: Yes, exactly, disaffected white working-class voters.

BALDWIN: Who he does well with.

CHEN: Who he does well with. The economic message does well with them. The anti-free trade message does well with them. These are voters that potentially gettable for the Trump campaign.

Now, they would have been gettable if the Trump campaign had been working in Michigan three months ago. But now that we're a week out, this really is a momentum play. The hope is basically the bank shot, that the momentum will carry them into enough support potentially to get them over the top.

I just have a tough time believing that it's going to be there. The other factor in Michigan is, how large is that disaffected black vote? Is it going to be enough? Is Hillary Clinton's base in the African- American community diminished so much, is the interest diminished so much that potentially Trump has a pathway in Michigan? I think that's the open question. BALDWIN: She's added the stop in Detroit on Friday, which I know has

surprised a lot of people, and then though it makes sense, when -- I'm thinking we're waiting for the president to speak in North Carolina, which is where he won in '08, he lost in '12.

It's interesting hearing his -- every time we see the first lady out stumping in North Carolina, she points out specific precincts and how many votes he lost by, because so much of this is about getting out and voting.

But him standing in Chapel Hill is more than just saying vote. What is it?

CHEN: Well, it's about turning people out to vote, but it's also about figuring out, what is the right coalition that needs to be assembled to get Hillary Clinton over the top?

BALDWIN: What do you mean?

CHEN: If the stories about the black vote being less animated than it was four years ago -- and I fully believe that's the case -- if that's true, then the question is, where do they get the votes from?

Millennials. One big category in Chapel Hill speaking directly to students at the University of North Carolina, that's a turnout play, but it's also a play to build the base, the progressive base that is needed to get Hillary Clinton over the top in a key state, North Carolina.

BALDWIN: Lanhee, thank you very much, as always, for swinging through.

CHEN: Thank you.

BALDWIN: We're waiting for the president to speak in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. We will take it live as soon as we see him.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:29:58]

(MUSIC)

BALDWIN: Love that song.

Chapel Hill's native son and Hillary Clinton supporter James Taylor there giving a little concert at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill ahead of the moment that we are waiting for, the president of the United States set to speak there.