Return to Transcripts main page

CNN NEWSROOM

ISIS Fights Back; Debate Night in America. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired October 19, 2016 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[03:00:00] ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN NEWSROOM SHOW HOST: ISIS fights back. Suicide bombers are attacking Iraqi government and Kurdish forces, all while U.S. President Barack Obama expresses new optimism.

Plus, civilians liberated from ISIS tell stories of atrocities. Some say ISIS would kill people for having mobile phones.

Debate night in America. And a few surprises. Donald Trump's debate guests and a new poll both have people talking.

Hello and a very warm welcome to our viewers all around the world. I'm Rosemary Church at CNN world headquarters in Atlanta.

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And I'm Michael Holmes live in Erbil, Iraq covering the offensive to retake Mosul from ISIS. You're watching CNN Newsroom.

Iraqi and Peshmerga forces are now in the third day of their advance toward Mosul. This is what it looks like from one Peshmerga fighter's body cam. The forces say they've made progress to the east and south of the city but they're facing strong ISIS resistance.

This video supposedly shows the militants fighting back. One Iraqi soldier was killed in a car bomb attack.

The Peshmerga forces found tunnels built through several houses. Inside they found weapons, ammunition, and food left behind, some of it still warm.

U.S. President Barack Obama admits the battle will be tough, but he's convinced ISIS will be driven out.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA PRESIDENT: Mosul will be a difficult fight, and there will be advances and there will be setbacks, but I am confident that just as ISIL's been defeated in communities across Iraq, ISIL will be defeated in Mosul as well, and that will be another step towards their ultimate destruction.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: And let's go to our Michael Holmes who is in Erbil east of Mosul. So, Michael, as this offensive pushes closer to Mosul there is much concern for the civilians who will of course be caught in the middle of the urban warfare that will follow. What is likely to happen to the civilians? What are their options here?

HOLMES: It's a very perilous situation for those civilians. Perhaps a million of them still inside Mosul, Rosemary. You know, they -- they've been talking about humanitarian corridors to get people out. That's not likely to happen.

There have been reports of ISIS killing people who have tried to leave the city. You've got the Iraqi government also the Kurdish political leadership urging people to stay in place. Basically hunkered down while this battle goes on.

And part of the reason for that is that the humanitarian side of things, the camps that have been set up outside of Mosul for people displaced by the fighting; they're woefully inadequate in terms of size to deal with anything like hundreds of thousands of people pouring out.

So, the residents inside there have been given a pretty tough decision. Hunker down or try to get out and risk being killed doing so.

The fighting is going to be fierce once the Iraqi forces and Kurdish forces get into Mosul itself. We're being led to believe that ISIS is not going to heavily defend the eastern part of the city. Instead, they will hunker down themselves in the western part of the city.

That's where you find the old city, narrow roads and really that favors the incumbent ISIS when it comes to that urban warfare.

Meanwhile, on the battlefield as it stand now Iraqi forces and Kurdish forces still some 30 to 40 kilometers from Mosul. They're going village to village clearing. There has been fighting of course. Not a lot of civilians in those villages that they have been clearing. There have been some but not all that many.

It is a very deliberate progress that they're making. They are taking their time. They're saying that perhaps it will be two or three weeks before they get to Mosul or to a position to enter Mosul and then that battle could perhaps take months.

But there has been progress ahead of schedule according to Iraqi leadership and also Kurdish leadership and the Americans too are saying that they're making good progress.

Fawaz Gerges is international relations professor at the London School of Economics and political science, author of "ISIS: A History." He joins me now from London.

And, Fawaz, as these battle progresses, look forward if you will, just as important as the military victory in Mosul is how that victory is then handled in terms of governance, in terms of the sectarian dynamic.

[03:05:03] How important is that after the fighting is over?

FAWAZ GERGES, "ISIS: A HISTORY" AUTHOR: Well, I think, Michael, as you've said, I mean, the morning after is as important as the takeover of Mosul from ISIS if not more so. You're talking about the city that has been devastated by two years and a half of occupation by ISIS. You still have 1 million man and woman and children living in the city.

It was reassuring yesterday, Michael, when President Barack Obama said that the American government and the Iraqi government and the United Nations have been discussing the humanitarian crisis for quite a few weeks, and President Obama said there are plans in place to deal with the flood of refugees that are 203,000 people from Mosul.

That's how many people the United Nations expect to flee Mosul if and when basically the fighting starts in Mosul itself.

So, the question on the table is not just the question of refugees. Does the Iraqi government have a post-ISIS reconstruction plan? In terms of both governance, and also in terms of rebuilding the city. Everything that we know that ISIS will fight a battle to the last man. It will concentrate its forces in the urban center.

And just for your own viewers, both in Iraq and internationally, when we say the urban center it is 10 miles wide, 10 miles long. So the urban city, the urban center could be devastated and it would take as we know from Tikrit, from Ramadi, from Fallujah, this could be devastated, it would take a year or two to rebuild the city. Not to mention the question of law and order.

How do you bridge the divide among the various ethnic communities? The Kurds, the Sunni Arabs, the Shiites, and the other minorities. Many, many unanswered questions so far.

HOLMES: Well, we'll speak to that potential. And there is a bit of a dire potential at the end of all this if ISIS is at least geographically defeated in Iraq the chances are it would become an insurgency of sort and wreak its own havoc.

But then you have -- you have Sunni tribes in this area who don't agree. You've got different factions of Kurds who don't agree. You've got the Shia paramilitaries and some of them don't agree in Baghdad and up in the north as well.

Not to mention Turkey on the outside. What is the potential for ongoing conflict among those disparate groups once ISIS is pushed out of Mosul?

GERGES: Michael, I mean, it is very alarming that the various players, whether you're talking about the Peshmerga, the Kurds, or you're talking about the Sunni tribes or you're talking about the Iraqi government, Turkey and Iran, they have their own agenda, and that's the reality.

Of course everyone wants to get rid of ISIS, but the question is everyone, all the players, whether you're talking about the Kurds, whether you're talking about the paramilitary, it's called al-Hashd al-Shaabi, the Shiite forces, Turkey itself, Iran, the Iraqi government, this is really -- it could become Mosul a time bomb that basically demolishes the peace. The question, the challenge for Iraq is not just to win the battle

against ISIS, Michael. As you know, the challenge for Iraq is to win the war. The struggle for reconstruction.

And the question is how do you manage, how do you bridge the divide among the various players? My hope, my take is that the Kurds and the central government have already been talking.

Obviously, the Kurds and the Iraqi government have a vested interest in the peace process in the post-ISIS phase in Mosul. Iran also wants the central government to establish its authority.

Another reassuring point because, you know, we've been talking about bad news is that the paramilitary Shiite forces will not enter Mosul itself.

In his address to the Iraqi people the prime minister made it clear only the Iraqi forces will enter Mosul and the United States has trained about 5,000 Sunni tribesmen who basically will take care of law and order in the city.

All in all, I mean, I think you have a great deal of tensions. The reality is the clashing agendas -- the various players could turn really the post-ISIS basically face into a greater conflict than we have witnessed in the past two years and a half in Mosul.

HOLMES: Yes indeed. A very dire prediction but one that you're not the only one to make, that the end of ISIS in Mosul could just be the beginning of a lot of other issues. Got to leave it there unfortunately. Fawaz Gerges, as always, thanks for your analysis.

[03:10:00] Now, a Peshmerga commander says his forces are ready to take in and protect civilians who do flee the front line.

Senior international correspondent Arwa Damon spoke to some villagers recently freed by the Iraqi army who are still very much terrified of ISIS.

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: We just came across this group of people. They're from one of the villages nearby. We were actually on our way toward one of the Iraqi army ninth division's positions.

According to what these gentlemen were saying, and we can go now and talk to some of the women as well, their village was liberated by the forces about two days ago. All these people were actually living under ISIS.

And then today they heard a rumor that ISIS was returning, so they all actually fled their village and have now ended up here and are waiting for permission to go back home.

And so what these women are saying is that ISIS actually reemerged from some of the orchards, some fighters did.

(FOREIGN LANGUAGE) And so we ran out, she doesn't even have her shoes on. If you see

this, Steve. Lived under ISIS. They now had to flee. I mean, this is one of the ongoing catastrophes of this war.

They're talking about the fact that they are hungry, and she's saying every day they used to come to us, they would say do you have guns, do you have mobile phones, give them over. Whoever they found with a mobile phone they would kill.

"They starved us. They killed people that would smoke. And they were so happy when the army came in. And then ISIS reemerged." They're saying "come on, let's go, let's go." And they're going back to their village.

Most of the families are returning. And the Iraqi and Kurdish commanders who we spoke to say that there was no ISIS counterattack. But you heard what they were saying to us. You saw how scared they were.

And this just shows you the psychological and other trauma that they have been through where just the rumor that ISIS has r

Arwa Damon, CNN, Manish, Iraq.

HOLMES: And it's hard to imagine, Rosemary, just what those people have been through and what others inside Mosul will be going through in the next couple of months. Back to you.

CHURCH: Yes, it certainly is. We'll talk to you again, Michael, in just a bit. Stay put there and take care.

Well, anti-terror forces in Turkey have shot and killed a suspected ISIS suicide bomber. The state news agency says it happened during a shootout in the capital Ankara earlier Wednesday.

Authorities say the suspect ignored orders to surrender. They later found what they called scores of explosives in his home. The governor's office in Ankara warned on Monday of imminent terror attacks.

Well, coming up, the half-brother of U.S. President Barack Obama will be a guest at Wednesday night's final debate. Take a guess at who invited him. We're back in a moment.

[03:15:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DON RIDDELL, CNN WORLD SPORT ANCHOR: Hi. I'm Don Riddell with your CNN World Sport headlines.

Real Madrid seems to be in the mood for scoring goals these days. Six in the league on Saturday. And on Tuesday, they continued that trend. Stuffing five past Legia Warsaw. And all five came from different scorers too. Obvious of which was arguably Gareth Bale, his first in the competition since December two years ago. Real won 5-1.

Now this time last year the idea of Leicester City playing in the Champions League was the stuff of fantasy. But as the champions of England they're not only doing it now they're on the brink of a place in the knockout round.

And on Tuesday, they beat Copenhagen 1-0. Riyad Mahrez 40th minute goal was the decider. And that was Copenhagen's first defeat of the season, by the way.

Big sport is big business these days. When it comes to hosting the Olympics they know all about that. Two major European cities, Rome and Hamburg, were bidding for the Summer Games in 2024 but both have shelved their bids.

Now there's talk that some events could be moved out of Tokyo or perhaps even out of Japan altogether for the 2020 games. A panel of experts have estimated the cost to Tokyo is going to be a staggering $28 billion. That's four times as much as the first estimate.

The Olympics chief Thomas Bach said on Tuesday that Tokyo and the IOC are looking at the costs and trying to find a way to make it more feasible.

That is a quick look at your sports headlines. I'm Don Riddell.

CHURCH: The third and final presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is just hours away. It's the showdown that could make or break Trump's sinking campaign.

CNN's Phil Mattingly takes a look back at the two previous debates and the lessons they hold.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The high points.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, (R) U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will say this about Hillary. She doesn't quit. She doesn't give up. I respect that. I tell it like it is. She's a fighter.

HILLARY CLINTON, (D) U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I respect his children. His children are incredibly able and devoted and I think that says a lot about Donald.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: And the low points.

CLINTON: Look, it's just not true. And so, please, don't...

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: You didn't delete them?

ANDERSON COOPER, AC360 SHOW HOST: Allow her to respond, please.

CLINTON: The personal e-mails. Not official...

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: The 33,000?

CLINTON: Not -- well, we turned over 35,000. So, it was...

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: Oh, yes. What about the other 15,000?

COOPER: Please allow her to respond. She didn't talk while you talked.

CLINTON: Yes, that's true. I didn't in the debate.

TRUMP: Because you have nothing to say.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: So, what are the lessons of the first two debates? Clinton advisers describe the first debate as ideal, an opportunity for Clinton to showcase her preparation.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: I think Donald just criticized me for preparing for this debate. And yes, I did. And you know what else I prepared for? I prepared to be president.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: And also for her to set this trap for Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: And one of the worst things he said was about a woman in a beauty contest. He loves beauty contests, supporting them and hanging around them. And he called this woman Miss Piggy. Then he called her Miss housekeeping because she was Latina. Donald, she has a name.

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: Where did you find this?

CLINTON: Her name is Alicia Machado.

TRUMP: Where did you find this?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: For Trump it was an uneven performance. There were moments when Trump hit on the exact message GOP leaders want him to hammer.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: And now you want to approve Trans-Pacific partnership. You were totally in favor of it. Then you heard what I was saying, how bad it is, and you said I can't win that debate. But you know that if you did win you would approve that and that would be almost as bad as NAFTA. Nothing will ever top NAFTA.

[03:19:56] CLINTON: Well, that is just not accurate. I was against it once it was finally negotiated and the terms were laid out. I wrote about that in...

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: You called it the gold standard.

CLINTON: Well, I...

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: You called it the gold standard of trade deals. You said it's the finest deal you've ever seen.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: And others where it appeared he'd lost control.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: Well, I hope the fact checkers are turned -- turning up the volume and really working hard. Donald supported the invasion of Iraq.

TRUMP: Wrong.

CLINTON: That is absolutely proved over and over again.

TRUMP: Wrong.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: But Trump advisers point to the second debate, a town hall format as an unquestioned victory for Trump. Despite polling that showed otherwise. There was this off-the-cuff zinger that landed.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Mr. Trump.

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: Where I think I should respond because so ridiculous. Look, now she's blaming -- she got caught in a total lie. Her papers went out to all her friends at the banks, Goldman Sachs and everybody else. And she said things WikiLeaks that just came out. She lied.

Now she's blaming the lie on the late Great Abraham Lincoln. That's one that I haven't -- OK, honest Abe. Honest Abe never lied. That's the good thing. That's the big difference between Abraham Lincoln and you.

That's a big, big difference. We're talking about some difference. (END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: It was, according to one senior Trump adviser, a demonstration of a more focused and more prepared Trump. Something the campaign is seeking to replicate Wednesday night here in Las Vegas. As to any pregame theatrics one Trump adviser told CNN stay tuned.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: I have a feeling that by the end of the evening I'm going to be blamed for everything that's ever happened.

TRUMP: Why not?

CLINTON: Why not? Yes. Why not?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Phil Mattingly, CNN, Las Vegas.

CHURCH: Joining me now is Larry Sabato. He is the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Thank you so much for being with us. Always a pleasure to chat with you.

Now, the campaigns have announced their debate guests. Clinton invited billionaires Mark Cuban and Meg Whitman. Trump invited Obama's Kenyan- born half-brother Malik and the mother of a Benghazi victim.

What are each of the candidates trying to achieve by bringing these particular guests and what advice would you give each of them to come out on top in this final debate?

LARRY SABATO, VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR POLITICS DIRECTOR: Those guests are just an opportunity to play mind games with the opponent, but both I think are more than ready to focus on the debate. This is the final debate. It's their last opportunity to reach a truly broad, tens of millions of people audience.

So, I don't think it will have any effect. What should they do in the debate? I think it's pretty obvious. The pressure is on Trump, enormously so. He is not just behind. He has fallen well behind. So he really has to win this debate.

And I don't even know that that would make a difference because there are so few undecided. For Hillary Clinton, she has to thrust and parry. She can't let Trump simply land blow after blow without responding. But her main task is not to mess up. She is winning.

CHURCH: President Obama responded Tuesday to Donald Trump's claims that the election is rigged. Let's just take a listen to what he will to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: There is no serious person out there who would suggest somehow that you could even -- you could even rig America's elections. I'd invite Mr. Trump to stop whining and go try to make his case to get votes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: And now people are openly speculating whether Trump will actually concede if he loses the election. Let's take a listen to Tony Schwartz, co-author of "Trump: the Art of the Deal."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TONY SCHWARTZ, "THE ART OF THE DEAL" CO-AUTHOR: The number one thing that drives Donald Trump is how do I fill up this black hole inside me, this feeling of my own worthlessness.

And he keeps having to up the ante to make to just get back to even. It's not unlike somebody doing a drug where you're sort of chasing the high. He's chasing the high and the presidency was the final high that he could reach for. And it's really scary to imagine how he will respond when he doesn't get it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: Now, Larry, powerful words there. What do you think Tony Schwartz means, and how do you think Trump will respond if he doesn't win this election?

SABATO: Well, I'm not a therapist. So I'm going to let Tony Schwartz's words stand. And he can explain the black hole in the heart.

But as far as whether Donald Trump will actually concede it's an open question. People who know Trump well wonder whether he is even capable of making the traditional call from the loser to the winner should in fact he lose and Clinton win.

[03:24:59] That's part of the ritual of our politics. And this has been such a bitter, nasty campaign that it would surprise no one if he never conceded.

Now, what's disturbing is he has tens of millions of followers, even though he's likely to lose. And a good number of them believe anything he says.

If he questions the integrity of this election, as he is doing, if he continues this, then my guess is millions of those people will never reconcile themselves to the actual results of the election.

And let me add, Trump's charges are absolutely ridiculous, with no evidence whatsoever, and they're totally irresponsible. And people on both sides of the partisan divide in the United States agree on that.

CHURCH: And Larry, six people have come forward to corroborate the story of a former People magazine writer who said she was sexually assaulted by Donald Trump. Will this story plague Trump, do you think, until Election Day, and does it even matter to his supporters?

SABATO: It certainly doesn't matter to the vast majority of his supporters. Again, they're totally dedicated to him. There are some aspects of a cult at work here.

But as far as the general electorate is concerned, it has hurt Trump. It's one reason why in many good national polls he has fallen below the 40 percent mark. I expect him to finish slightly above that.

But the truth is this is hurting him especially with women. We are headed for the biggest gender gap in American presidential history, at least in the polling era, meaning that men are supporting Trump but only by a few points whereas, women are supporting Clinton overwhelmingly. And that is what is delivering in all probability the victory to her.

CHURCH: But it is to be said trouble will persist for Hillary Clinton too with more embarrassing hacked e-mails from her campaign manager John Podesta released Tuesday. If Clinton wins what impact might these leaks have in the years ahead?

SABATO: There's no question that this is going to bedevil a president Hillary Clinton. There's so much information, so many things said back and forth, really it's an advertising to all of us to stop e-mailing.

It's clear that she is going to have to make some critical decisions and undoubtedly people will draw lines between the e-mails sent during the campaign and the decisions that she makes. So, it's just endless trouble for her. And in that sense, WikiLeaks has won.

CHURCH: And just quickly before we go, one interesting poll came out Tuesday. This is from University of Houston showing only three points separating Trump and Clinton; 41 percent to 38 percent. That's within the margin of error.

Does this mean Texas is as competitive as states like Ohio suddenly? What does this tell you?

SABATO: I doubt that it's all that competitive. But I will say this. In all the polls taken in Texas in the general election the biggest margin Trump has had is seven percentage points.

The normal republican margin for president in Texas is around 15 percent. I suspect that he is going to have one of the lowest winning margins for a republican presidential candidate in modern American history.

CHURCH: Three weeks to go. Larry Sabato, it's going to be interesting to see the outcome on this one. I appreciate chatting with you.

SABATO: Thank you, Rosemary.

CHURCH: And a reminder that the final presidential debate is less than 24 hours away. CNN is live in Las Vegas with full coverage from 11 p.m. Wednesday in London. That's 6 a.m. Thursday in Hong Kong. Make sure you tune in.

Well, for many Iraqis nowhere feel safe. Coming up, the humanitarian crisis that could come with the Mosul offensive. We're back in a moment. [03:30:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHURCH: And a very warm welcome back to our viewers from all around the world. I'm Rosemary Church. I want to update you now on the top stories this hour.

Iraqi and Kurdish forces say they have made progress to the east and south of Mosul but the resistance from ISIS is strong.

One Iraqi soldier was killed in a car bomb attack. A Peshmerga commander says it could take two months to retake the city.

Police in the Philippines clash with anti-U.S. protesters outside the American embassy in Manila on Wednesday. Activists say police fired tear gas and that one officer drove a patrol van toward the protesters.

We're trying to get a statement from the police on what exactly happened. We're told more than 20 people were arrested.

Iran has sentenced an Iranian-American father and son to 10 years in prison. Its official news agency says the U.S. paid Baqer and Siamak Namazi for anti-Iran activities. Siamak Namazi on the left is the first U.S. citizen reported to have been detained in Iran since its nuclear deal last year.

All right. We do want to go back to our top story, the offensive to retake Mosul from ISIS. Our Michael Holmes there live n Erbil. Michael, the real concern here, too, once this offensive gets underway in Mosul, it's the humanitarian crisis will inevitably follow.

HOLMES: Yes, already, Rosemary, there are tens of thousands of Iraqis who have been internally displaced by the fighting. The fear is once the fighting gets into the city itself you've got hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps a million in there who are obviously going to be at enormous risk.

The fighting is likely to be in the west of the city, which is the old city, narrow streets and a very difficult urban combat environment.

And a lot of those civilians live in that area are going to be at great risk.

The other thing that is concerning. Some groups, for example, Amnesty International, raising concerns about possible human rights violations.

Now that group has accused Iraqi security forces and paramilitary groups of torture, even unlawful killings in their campaigns to free cities like Fallujah and Tikrit, something the Iraqi government says it's investigating.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HAIDER AL-ABADI, IRAQI PRIME MINISTER (TRANSLATED): In any case, there are violations of human rights violation. We will bring justice to those who commit these violations. But there are no human rights violations at this point.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: And the United Nations meanwhile saying, up to a million people could try to flee the fighting around Mosul.

Jomana Karadsheh joins me now live from Amman, Jordan where she's been looking into at.

One can't imagine a million people fleeing. It might not be that much but it's certainly tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands. How prepared are aid groups and the U.N. for those kinds of numbers?

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, right now, Michael, they're not really prepared. We've heard this from the U.N., from other aid agencies. They say they have the capacity right now for about 60,000 people.

[03:35:05] They have been working for months to set up camps, to set up these emergency sites to host refugees fleeing Mosul, but because of insufficient funding amongst other reasons they say international donors have provided some funding but it is nowhere near enough what they need to prepare for this possible flood of humans who will be leaving Mosul.

But right now they say they'll be working around the clock to set up 20 more sites to host hundreds of thousands of refugees. Now, so far we haven't seen large numbers of people fleeing just yet for some reasons including the fact that the fighting hasn't reached the populated areas.

We've also heard from the Pentagon yesterday saying that they believe that ISIS is forcing people to stay in Mosul perhaps to use them as human shields, one of the biggest fears when it comes to this operation.

And also as you were mentioning earlier, Michael, there is possibly that fear of retribution. This is a predominantly Sunni population and you have a large number of Shia forces taking part in this operation.

And they have been accused; some of these groups have been accused in other liberated areas of human rights violations and serious abuses. You've heard promises there from the Iraqi prime minister and other officials saying that this will not happen in Mosul, but these people need to see more than promises.

One very important aspect here is going to be that screening and vetting process of the refugees once they leave Mosul before the men and the boys are allowed into these refugee camps. They need to go through security screening.

And that process humanitarian agencies say must be a transparent one. They must feel safe after they flee, and this is going to really impact the refugee crisis and how we see people -- if we see people fleeing and the numbers, Michael.

But so many questions here about how many people are going to be fleeing, when we're going to see that happening.

HOLMES: You mentioned there the, you know, Mosul is predominantly Sunni. But it actually has a lot of different groups who've lived there historically, quite diverse in many ways.

And Christians among them. Christians who fled Mosul back in 2014 when ISIS moved in and who are now in Jordan. And you've been speaking to them. How do they view what's going on in the north back in their home?

KARADSHEH: Well, Michael, back in 2014, thousands of Christians who were driven out of their homes in Mosul by ISIS ended up here in Jordan. As you mentioned, churches here in Amman opened their doors. They were hosting these refugees.

And we spoke to them at the time. They were very emotional as you can understand. They had lost everything. They barely had anything when they arrived here in Jordan. And one thing people were telling us at the time is they really wanted to go back home. That's all they wanted at the time.

Now, two years later we met up with some of these refugees and they say, Michael, they have lost hope, they do not want to go back to Mosul. They said they have gone through enough over the years, persecution by Al Qaeda and then ISIS and right now they don't want their children to go through this one more time. So, for them Mosul is finished in their words.

HOLMES: Very sad. Jomana, thanks so much. Jomana Karadsheh, there in Amman, Jordan.

Now looking beyond this offensive, the question is, what happens if ISIS is forced from Iraq, at least geographically. But its ideology still holds appeal to some. I spoke with Ranj Alaaldin of the Brookings Doha Center.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RANJ ALAALDIN, BROOKINGS DOHA CENTER VISITING FELLOW: We've seen that ISIS over the past six months, for example, has committed atrocities throughout Iraq in its usual form. That is, by wave of sleeper cells in Baghdad, and other parts of Iraq it's committing the kind of bombings, suicide bombings, the IED attacks that it's done with deadly impact over the past 10 years.

And as you say, that's because conditions are still there for it to do all that. It's important to be wary of any absence of resistance in the coming period. ISIS could very well blend into the local population in Mosul.

You know, just because it doesn't put up much of a fight this time around that doesn't mean it isn't investing its resources into the kind of terrorist attacks that I happen to just referred to. That doesn't mean it isn't saving itself for another day to put up the kind of violence, the kind of resistance that it's been putting up over the past decade more generally. (END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: And that aspect, Rosemary, isn't the only one that has analysts concerned. There are so many different groups involved in this battle against ISIS.

[03:40:02] A lot of fears for what the future holds for Iraq. Rosemary?

CHURCH: There indeed are many concerns. Thank you so much, Michael Holmes. And you take care, my friend. I appreciate it.

Well, two democratic operatives have lost their jobs after one was called allegedly discussing ways to provoke violence at Donald Trump's rallies. You will see the tape. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHURCH: A democratic operative has resigned, and another has been fired after the release of an edited video. It suggests they hire people to incite violence at Trump rallies. The Clinton campaign denied encouraging any violence.

CNN's Drew Griffin has that story.

DREW GRIFFIN, CNN SENIOR INVESTIGATIVE REPORTER: The undercover videos produced by discredited conservative activist James O'Keefe suggest it was democratic operatives, hired political activists working in coordination with the DNC to instigate violence and incite reactions at Trump rallies.

And in one of the undercover videos, Scott Foval, a subcontractor for a DNC-hired firm called Democracy Partners, supposedly explains just how he does it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SCOTT FOVAL, AMERICANS UNITED FOR CHANGE NATIONAL FIELD DIRECTOR: There's a script.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK.

FOVAL: There is script of engagement. Sometimes the crazies bite and sometimes the crazy don't bite when they're outside the rally.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They won't back it out. They're harder to get in.

FOVAL: The media will cover it no matter where it happens.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I assume it's always in the rally.

FOVAL: Initiating the conflict by having leading conversations with people who are naturally psychotic. Honestly, it is not hard to get some of these assholes to pop off.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right.

FOVAL: It's a matter of showing up to want to get into the rally in a Planned Parenthood t-shirt or, you know, Trump is a Nazi. You know, you can message to draw them out and draw them to punch you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[03:45:06] GRIFFIN: According to the undercover videos it was it man the Democratic National Committee turned to to organize the work. Bob Creamer is the husband of Illinois Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky.

He's part of a group called Democracy Partners, and he, too, was caught on undercover video here explaining how he was hired by the Democratic National Committee to stage counterdemonstrations and press conferences wherever the Trump campaign showed up.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BOB CREAMER, DEMOCRACY PARTNERS FOUNDER: Wherever Trump had events we had events.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE:

CREAMER: And we have a whole team across the country who does that, both consultants and people from the Democratic Party and the democratic apparatus and people from the campaign, the Clinton campaign. And my role in the campaign is to manage all that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRIFFIN: Creamer stepped down from the campaign today and announced his subcontractor Scott Foval was no longer working for his firm. Both the DNC and the Clinton campaign deny any coordination with anything involving the incitement of violence.

Creamer himself told CNN his former contractors were committing bar room talks, insisting none of what is being described by Foval ever actually happened.

In a statement, Creamer writes, "We regret the unprofessional and careless hypothetical conversations that were captured on hidden cameras of a regional contractor for our firm. He is no longer working with us."

The Clinton campaign responds, "While Project Veritas has been known to offer misleading videos out of context some of the language and tactics referenced in the video are troubling, even as a theory or a proposal never executed."

"We support the Democratic National Committee's appropriate action addressing this matter and look forward to continue waging a campaign of ideas worthy of our democratic process." "James O'Keefe is a convicted criminal," they add, "with a history of doctoring video to advance his ideological agenda."

CHURCH: And that was CNN's senior investigative correspondent Drew Griffin reporting.

In 2010, James O'Keefe pled guilty to a misdemeanor charge for breaking into a former senator's office to tamper with her phone.

One typhoon has already made landfall in Southern China and another much stronger one is barreling toward the Philippines.

Our meteorologist Pedram Javaheri joins us now in the studio to talk more about this. So what is the track?

PEDRAM JAVAHERI, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes. So, that the track is an ominous one because we know Luzon in the crosshairs of the storm and beyond that Hong Kong and its seven million people in the metro could be impacted as well.

So I want to start across portions of the island of Hainan, I'll show you some video coming out of this region because it was an incredible storm that made landfall, the initial one that Rosie told you about already making landfall in southern China.

And the damage left in place in the video if we have it for you shows you exactly what we're talking about with the significance of this particular flooding widespread across the region. Of course, there are power outages, we have school closures businesses also severely impacted by this particular storm system.

And then we look back out toward the east. Here's what it looks like on satellite imagery with super Typhoon Haima that sits in just east of Luzon. Now close projections of this particular storm system and you take a look you had a very quiet year in the western pacific, and in particular for our friends across portions of the Philippines.

On average, eight to nine storms make landfall. We've only will two storms make landfall. Haima would be the third storm is expected to make landfall within the next 10 hours or so across northern portions of Luzon.

And I just want to populate the population density across this region. And the areas with the light there indicating a satellite imagery view here in the overnight hours of the population.

You notice Santiago, San Manuel, Cabagan, all these areas have 700,000 to over a million people when you put them together. But on the immediate coast where the storm searched throughout the highest it is sparsely populated.

That good news for the folks across that region of eastern Luzon. But you notice back out towards portions of Hong Kong an entirely different story.

Populations go up over well over seven million again in the metro area. And that is the storm that can make landfall there. That's potentially a category 1 or 2 sometime later Friday afternoon.

But I want to show you what's ahead of us in places like northern Luzon where half a meter of rainfall could come down. Those amounts of rainfall are a recipe for landslides to take place across this region, especially away from the coastline where it is rather elevated.

And then again, you work your way towards a Friday afternoon, Hong Kong could see a pretty powerful storm system working its way in this direction where only 100 millimeters is what is typically average for this time of year.

We could ping up another 200 millimeters from this storm system.

So, certainly the story we're following. And, Rosemary, we'll leave you with this. An unusual moon bow in North Yorkshire. This is in the U.K. And much like a rainbow. It is incredible.

Much like a rainbow where you have water refracted inside -- inside this, the atmosphere essentially and give you these colors, moonlight refracts the same sort of a pattern. And it gives you a pretty deep sight but not often you get to have a full moon lined one with moisture in the atmosphere to give you a boon bow.

[03:50:08] CHURCH: We have a fascinating world around.

JAVAHERI: Absolutely, yes.

CHURCH: Thanks so much, Pedram. Those images much appreciated.

JAVAHERI: Yes.

CHURCH: Well, Melania Trump's defense of her husband has the internet buzzing. Next, the Trump-inspired hash tag exploding all over social media. Back in a moment.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAVAHERI: A record heat still continuing around portions of the United States.

I'm meteorologist Pedram Javaheri.

Under an influence of high pressure here across the southeastern portion of the United States, temperatures for some have soared well above seasonal values.

In fact, in places like Dodge City in the U.S. State of Kansas they broke a record that's been standing for over 140 years. An incredible setup there with temps approaching 40 degrees Celsius for this time of year.

But you'll notice, still from New York City a mild setup at 28 degrees. Chicago still an enjoyable afternoon with partly cloudy skies, and 22 in portions like, portions of Texas there warming up into the lower 30s.

But you'll notice the trend is a cooler one and it's a pretty significantly cooler one for the U.S. capital there going from 28 down to 13 degrees. This is more in line with what you'd expect in the month of August. Down here more in line with what you'd expect in the month of

November. So, literally within four days the temperatures will take a two to three-month shift in the climatological norm in store across parts of the United States.

There's the mild air on Thursday. You'll notice the cool air pushes in. It's a short-lived trend here. As we approach later next week, more warmth looks to build here as we approach Halloween across the United States. So, an impressive trend still looks to develop across that region.

Around the Caribbean watching a storm system north of San Juan and also parts of the Turks and Caicos Islands, about an 80 percent probability this will form but it looks to track more to the north and east.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHURCH: OK. So you could say the committee that awards the Nobel literature prize has stopped knocking on Bob Dylan's door. The American singer won the honor last week, but the Swedish Academy says it hasn't heard from him despite repeatedly trying to contact him. It says it will host a presentation ceremony even if Dylan is a no-show.

Melania Trump is defending her husband against his sexual assault allegations by saying Access Hollywood host Billy Bush led him astray. And of course, social media is listening.

[03:55:03] Here's Jeanne Moos.

JEANNE MOOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: On SNL

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You're beautiful dutiful Melania.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MOOS: Melania Trump was portrayed as if she were ready to dump the Donald. But in real life Melania didn't just stand by her man.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILLY BUSH, ACCESS HOLLYWOOD REPORTER: Have a little hug for Donald.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MOOS: She partially blamed Billy Bush for leading her husband on.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MELANIA TRUMP, DONALD TRUMP'S WIFE: Lead on like egg on from the host to say dirty and bad stuff.

(END VIDEO CLIP) MOOS: But nobody had to egg on the internet. Instantly a new hash tag

was born. Hash tag Billy Bush made me do it. As in when Trump cheated on his first wife with the second. Hash tag Billy Bush made me do it. Or Ryan Lochte just changed his story. He now says Billy Bush made me do it. You know how Trump is always saying...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: This whole election is being rigged.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MOOS: So of course someone tweeted "Now we all know who's rigging this election, hash tag, Billy Bush made me do it." Even noted Hillary supporter Cher got into the act. "How can Trump stand up to Putin if he couldn't stand up to Billy Bush?"

This 4-year-old poogle tweeted "Hash tag, Billy Bush made me put this paper towel over my head." Billy is being bushwhacked. John Oliver's show did a segment.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Billy Bush being creepy with everyone.

BUSH: How do you feel about your butt?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you kidding? You did not just ask me that.

BUSH: I did.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MOOS: Now they can add the 2005 bus scene.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: Now let the little guy in.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, let the little guy in.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MOOS: Melania had a name for what her husband engaged in on that bus.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

M. TRUMP: They were kind of a boy talk. Boy's talk.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MOOS: With a 59-year-old boy? Blame it on the 33-year-old. President Trump, why did you nuke Brussels? Hash tag, Billy Bush made me do it. Though, the Donald sure seems to be the alpha.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) D. TRUMP: Come on, Billy, let's go.

MOOS: Jeanne Moos, CNN.

D. TRUMP: That's better.

MOOS: New York.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: The internet's having some fun out there. Thanks for joining us. I'm Rosemary Church. The news continues with Max Foster.

Have yourselves a great day.

[04:00:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)