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EARLY START

The Race for President: Will Indiana Be A Turning Point?; Obama Reveals Challenges For His Successors; Syria Ceasefire Collapsing. Aired 4-4:30a ET

Aired May 3, 2016 - 04:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[04:00:39] MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN ANCHOR: In just hours, Indiana voters head to the polls in what could be a turning point in the race for president. Can frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton lock up their nominations or will a surprise upset shake up the race?

Good morning and welcome to EARLY START. I'm Miguel Marquez.

Good to see you.

ALISON KOSIK, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. I'm Alison Kosik. Good to see you, too. It is Tuesday, May 3rd. It's 4:00 a.m. in the East.

And in just hours, voters head to the polls in Indiana. The frontrunners trying to close the deal in the state's crucial primary. Donald Trump campaigning in Indiana predicting a huge victory that would crush Ted Cruz and John Kasich.

CNN's Jim Acosta is with the Trump campaign in Indiana. He has the latest.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Miguel and Alison, Donald Trump is declaring this race for the GOP nomination over if he wins the Indiana primary. Joined by some of the biggest sports heroes all day long, Trump hit Ted Cruz hard in South Bend, the home of Notre Dame, teasing the Texas senator for not assisting his running mate Carly Fiorina when she stumbled off a campaign stage over the weekend. But Trump said he is ready to turn to Hillary Clinton in the general election campaign.

Here is more of what he had to say.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If we win, it's over. And then I can focus -- then I don't have to worry about Lyin' Ted Cruz. And I don't care less if he endorses me or does -- I couldn't care less. But I don't have to worry about Lyin' Ted Cruz. We wouldn't have to worry about Kasich who's 1-44.

ACOSTA: A top Trump campaign official tells me they believe a big win in Indiana will force Cruz to start rethinking his future in this race, predicting the money will start drying up for the Texas senator. Cruz is vowing to stay in the race as long as he remains viable --

Miguel and Alison.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MARQUEZ: Thank to Jim Acosta.

As he just mentioned, Ted Cruz is not giving up his bid to stop Trump. Cruz has no path to victory outside of a contested convention. So, he has been barnstorming Indiana, a state he described as critical to his hopes.

Cruz spoke with CNN's Dana Bash about why he still has a chance at a Republican nomination. She joins us from Indianapolis.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Miguel and Alison, the thing to keep in mind about the today's primary here in Indiana today is it is in no way going to get Ted Cruz the nomination before the convention. This is all about just giving Cruz the ability to say that he has the potential to have a fight at the convention in Cleveland.

So, that is part of what I talked to him about when he was standing with the governor of Indiana, Mike Pence, who endorsed him and I put the numbers to Ted Cruz. I said that from now on, Donald Trump just needs 47 percent of the remaining delegates to win and Cruz needs 132 percent. Meaning, it's mathematically impossible.

So, why is he saying he is sure it will be a contested convention? Here is how that conversation went.

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Dana, nobody is going to get to 1,237. I'm not going to get to it but neither is Donald Trump. And I'll tell you, I think Indiana is going to be a critical state in that. Indiana is voting tomorrow and I'm encouraged that we're seeing conservatives come together, including especially Governor Mike Pence.

BASH: What makes you sure he won't get the delegates? I mean, getting 47 percent of the remaining delegates isn't inconceivable at all.

CRUZ: Well, he hasn't gotten 47 percent to date. That's better than he's done. And I'll tell you --

BASH: But he sure did well last week.

CRUZ: You are right. He did well in his home state and he did well in the adjoining states. He won five states last week. But I'll tell you, in the three weeks that preceded that, I won five states in a row, starting with Utah and then North Dakota and then Wisconsin and then Colorado, and then Wyoming -- 1.3 million people voted in those states. BASH: The bottom line for Ted Cruz, is that he gotten a lot of what

he wished for, for almost a year -- a one-on-one chance to try to beat Donald Trump mano-a-mano because John Kasich is effectively not campaigning here in Indiana, fertile ground, which Indiana is for him.

He's even got a running mate who is relatively popular, at least seems to be here in Carly Fiorina -- however unconventional that announcement was last week.

So, he has laid everything, all of the stakes have been raised by him and his campaign for Indiana.

[04:05:04] So, if he doesn't win, that is why people in the never Trump community, people who have been helping to pour money in against Donald Trump privately are telling me and others that they think maybe this is the end of the road for them, which could mean that it would be much more difficult for Ted Cruz to continue, even though his campaign is insisting, even if he doesn't win here in Indiana, today, he is not going to get out of the race, but getting out of the race and continuing on nominally, they are different things.

While I toss it back to you, I just want to give you just one more anecdote. This room is relatively empty. It was filled with people who came to hear Ted Cruz. And there were a remarkable number of people who said to me that, many supporters, of course, but other who said they weren't sure they were going to vote for him because they don't want a contested convention. And a vote for Ted Cruz, by definition, is a contested convention, because he can't get the nomination outright. And those kind of calculations going into voter's minds today could make this race very different from what perhaps Ted Cruz wants -- Miguel and Alison.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOSIK: All right, Dana Bash. Thanks very much.

And on the Democrats side, Bernie Sanders are hoping for a win today in Indiana, poling close second to Hillary Clinton. Sanders has been making his case to Hoosier voters, the same case he hopes will persuade Democratic superdelegates to back him, namely that he will be the strongest candidate in the general election.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Every single national poll, every single poll in a battleground state like Indiana, you know what those polls show? They show that by far, Bernie Sanders is the strongest candidate to defeat Donald Trump.

(CHEERS)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KOSIK: I like the guy with the blue beard and goggles.

Senior Washington correspondent Jeff Zeleny is traveling with the Sanders campaign. He has the latest from Indianapolis.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPODENT: Miguel and Alison, Bernie Sanders campaigning until the very last minute before this Indiana primary. He is looking for another win. Hillary Clinton has won five out of the last six contests. Bernie Sanders is looking to turn around the momentum.

One thing he cannot turn around is the math. Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead in pledged delegates, even more so in superdelegates. But Bernie Sanders still making the argument he will go forward until the California primary and perhaps even until the convention. Now, he was campaigning across the state of Indiana on the eve of the primary and not holding back on Hillary Clinton at all. Still calling on her to release those paid speeches to Goldman Sachs, still calling her out support for her Iraq war vote.

And the crowds were cheering along the way here. Now, how does Indiana primary turns out tonight will help decide how much the Clinton campaign is going to have to fight back. They've already been trying to turn their attention to Donald Trump, turn their attention on the fall campaign. But if Bernie Sanders wins here in Indiana, this is one problem the Clinton campaign wants to sprint through the finish line, not limp toward here.

So, the Clinton campaign is still holding out for hopefully a win. But Bernie Sanders could win Indiana and that could slow down her march to the nomination -- Miguel and Alison.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MARQUEZ: Jeff Zeleny for us.

Hillary Clinton looking past Bernie Sanders to the general election. He's campaigning not in Indiana, but in Appalachia, making several stops in West Virginia. Clinton felt the wrath of coal miners angry over past her remarks to CNN that she would, quote, "put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business" as part of her clean energy plan.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I want to know how you can say you will put coal miners out of -- out of jobs, and then come in here and tell us how you're going to be our friends, because those people out there don't see you as a friend.

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What I said was totally out of context from what I meant. I have been talking about helping coal country for a long time. And I did put out a plan last summer. And it was a misstatement because what I was saying is that the way things are going now, we will continue to lose jobs. That's what I meant to say. I think that that seems to be supported by the facts.

I didn't mean that we were going to do it. What I said was that is going to happen unless we take action to try to help and prevent it.

I do feel a little bit sad and sorry that I gave folks the reason or the excuse to be so upset with me, because that is not what I intended at all.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MARQUEZ: Now, Clinton acknowledges she had a steep climb to win West Virginia in the primary and general election, but she said she has a moral obligation to help coal workers regardless.

[04:10:02] KOSIK: The economy and jobs will likely be the top issue for voters in Indiana today. And the state has a unique economic picture. Listen to this, Indiana's jobless rate, it actually matches the national average at 5 percent. The state's median household income is just more than $48,000, that's below the nationwide average.

And check out home prices. The average single family home in Indiana is $119,500. It's almost less than the national average.

Manufacturing is one of Indiana's top industries, giving it deep connections to the auto industry. Retail trade and health care employ hundreds of thousands of workers in the state.

Mining is also important, though it employs a smaller number of workers than many other industries. Indiana does produce a lot of coal, limestone and sand and gravel.

Interestingly enough, you look at manufacturing, though, it is still huge in the state. You know, 14 percent of all the employed workers in the state are in manufacturing.

MARQUEZ: It's a big manufacturing, which was interesting because the Carrier thing really sort of caught fire when the carrier moved down and went to Mexico.

KOSIK: Exactly. Yes, you're going to see -- you're going to see Trump's economic policies really resonate with the voters, especially when he talks about jobs moving overseas.

MARQUEZ: Cool. Thank you very much.

President Obama revealing the biggest challenge ahead for his successor in the war on terror. It's a CNN exclusive, coming right up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[04:15:28] MARQUEZ: President Obama revealing some of the challenges ahead for his successor in the war on terror. In a CNN exclusive, the president tells our Peter Bergen, the next commander in chief will most likely turn to special forces and intelligence gathering model his administration used in the raid against Osama bin Laden. The president also identifying one area his successor should be worried about.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Because of the power of social media, there is a mechanism to recruit volunteers that are located in the West, that are much more difficult, precisely because they don't engage in the same kind of planning. And what that means is, is that we've got to continue to be vigilant. It means we have to go after ISIL in its core where it allows itself to maintain the illusion that somehow it's on the march.

It's going to be important for us ultimately to take them out of Mosul and take them out of Raqqah, make sure they don't have the safe havens where they can pretend that they're a state in some fashion.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MARQUEZ: And the "AC360" special, "We Got Him: Obama, Bin Laden and the War on Terror." The president said large scale military operations like sending troops to Afghanistan and then Iraq has some current candidates suggesting in his words make the fight against extremism harder.

KOSIK: President Obama visits Flint on Wednesday and Michigan Governor Rick Snyder will not only be there to greet him, he is also asking for a private meeting, insisting he wants to work together with the White House to sold Flint's water contamination crisis and improve the quality of life there. The White House though is not saying whether the president will make time for the governor.

MARQUEZ: And Detroit public schools could be closed again today. The teachers union urging members to call out sick for a second straight day. The district has already warned the union it won't be able to meet payroll past June. Union leaders calling on state lawmakers to pass a $715 million bailout plan to keep teacher paychecks flowing through the summer.

KOSIK: A special administrator appointed by the courts to handle the estate of the late entertainer, Prince. The singer's family was in court Monday trying to determine the fate of the $300 million estate as well as a vault rumored to contain thousands of unreleased Prince songs. So far, no sign of a will, and if none is found, prince's sister and half siblings inherit his money and possessions.

MARQUEZ: That is going to be a massive fight.

KOSIK: Yes, we can already see the beginnings of that.

MARQUEZ: Sadly. Severe storms and heavy rain and possible flash flooding in the South.

Let's bring in meteorologist Pedram Javaheri.

PEDRAM JAVAHERI, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Alison and Miguel, good morning to you both.

I'm watching some active weather across the Southeast here, really not much in the way of severe weather spawning tornadoes. That's the great news. But we are looking out here for damaging winds and hail threat being the largest really across portions of the Carolinas, Charlotte, one of the larger cities is in line with this and southern Virginia, also some active weather to go around by this afternoon.

Again, light to moderate showers, some scattered thunderstorms. Much of the story across the Northeast. And we bring in cooler temperatures. Impressive for the month of May, especially across the Southeast. Some of these readings go from the mid and upper 70s on Tuesday, in Atlanta, down to 66 degrees.

Look what happens down in the Magic Kingdom, Orlando, from 90 down to 79 degrees. Well, across the Northeast and part of the Midwest, there is actually the opposite trend there where temps do want to warm up towards the latter portion of the week.

In fact, Mother's Day weekend not bad. Look at this, we have a couple days of showers and cool weather across New York City, and then just in time for a very important holiday, temps warm up into the 70s. And sunshine comes back later in the week as well -- guys.

KOSIK: OK, Pedram, thanks for that.

Negotiations to save a failing cease-fire in Syria. U.S. and Russia trying to help broker a deal. We are live next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[04:24:05] KOSIK: With a nine-week-old cease-fire in Syria falling apart, the U.S. and Russia say they are trying to restore the peace and bring an end to the hostilities in Aleppo. Secretary of State John Kerry meeting in Geneva with Syria's special envoy to the U.S., before making a lengthy phone call to Russia's foreign minister overnight.

Let's go live to Moscow and bring in CNN's senior international correspondent Matthew Chance.

Matthew, what is the likelihood that we could see a ceasefire actually put in place and stick?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Well, it's just the violence I think which is the emphasis of the moment around the city of Aleppo where over the past 10 days, hundreds of people have been killed in renewed fighting as the Syrian government backed, of course, by Russia pushes into the city, which is largely held by the al Nusra front, which is an affiliate of al Qaeda.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry speaking in Switzerland yesterday, said that in some ways, the Syrian conflict is now out of control.

[04:25:01] There's a renewed diplomatic effort to try and get the cessation of hostilities that was agreed in February to be reinvigorated and back in force. But much work, according to the secretary of state, still has to be done. The emphasis has now shifted here to Moscow with the U.N. special envoy to Syria's Staffan de Mistura is in town. He's going to meeting the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to see whether the Russians are going to be willing or able to put enough pressure on Syria, on the Syrian government to hold back on that offensive in Aleppo and trying to bring some calm to that devastated city, Alison.

KOSIK: Yes, it's certainly disturbing to say the least, especially the last seven to ten days we've seen hundreds killed in Aleppo.

All right. Matthew Chance, thanks so much.

MARQUEZ: The Marine Corps confirms it looking too claims that one of the men raising the American flag in the iconic World War II photo taken at Iwo Jima is incorrectly identified. This is an amazing story. The picture was snapped in 1945 by an "Associated Press" photographer. Now, now two amateur history buffs claimed the marine identified as John Bradley is actually Herald Henry Schultz, a private first class naval corpsman from Detroit who died in 1995.

Incredible.

KOSIK: Really. It's interesting that you've got the amateur history buff stepping in and saying, wait a minute, let's take another look here.

MARQUEZ: Well, it's such an iconic photo, the idea that they were misidentified all this time. Incredible.

KOSIK: Oh, yes.

All right. In just hours, Indiana voters cast ballots in the race for president. Frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton trying to close the deal. But will an upset change the race? That's next.

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