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Big Wins for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton; Assessing the Paths of Presidential Campaigns; Election Roll Troubles in New York. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired April 20, 2016 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ISHA SESAY, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers in the United States and around the world. I'm Isha Sesay in Los Angeles where it is 11:00 at night.

JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR: It is late night and I'm John Vause, great to have you with us. You're watching CNN's special coverage of the New York primary.

[02:00:02] Big wins tonight for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. CNN projects the billionaire businessman will take the Empire State by a wide margin. Even though Trump was heavily favored in his home state, this is perhaps his most significant and important win so far.

SESAY: All right. Well, let's take a look at the numbers, then, shall we? Trump far and away the winner with 60 percent of the vote as you see there on your screen. Ohio Governor John Kasich in second with 25 percent, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz in third place with 14 percent. Trump is projected to add 89 delegates to his total, bringing him to 847.

Here's the thing. Here's the goal. He's trying to reach the magic number of 1,237 so he can clinch the party's nomination before July's convention. Ted Cruz will not win a single delegate in New York because he did not win a district.

VAUSE: That's a big goose egg for Ted Cruz. Trump told his supporters, though, this win was special.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have great, great admiration and praise for the city of New York and the state of New York. I can think of nowhere that I would rather have this victory.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SESAY: Let's talk about the Democrats then. Well, Hillary Clinton claiming a big victory in New York's Democratic primary, propelling her ever closer to clinching the party's nomination.

CNN projects she will triumph over Bernie Sanders in her adopted home state.

VAUSE: OK, here are the numbers. Hillary Clinton, 57 percent of the vote. Bernie Sanders, 42 percent. 15 percent margin as the delegates, Clinton is projected to add 139 to her total, bringing that to 1,930. She needs 453 more delegates to clinch the party's nomination.

SESAY: Well, it was a much needed win for Clinton after losing eight of the last nine contests to Sanders.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: In this campaign, we've won in every region of the country.

From the north to the south to the east to the west. But this one's personal.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: CNN's M.J. Lee is in New York with more on this. But M.J, I guess the big news in the last couple of hours was this criticism coming from the Clinton campaign about Bernie Sanders and his destructive path. What more can you tell us?

M.J. LEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, first of all, this was a very, very big night for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. So much so that I'm willing to bet if ultimately both Trump and Hillary Clinton do end up being their party's nominees, I think there was a good chance that they point to last night and the New York primary races as sort of a turning point in their races.

And why is that? For Donald Trump, the results of New York gives him a better chance now of actually getting to the 1,237 delegates necessary to actually clinch the GOP nomination outright and avoid this messy contested convention scenario, which has campaign very much does not want.

And for Hillary Clinton, this was an opportunity for her to really stop the narrative that Bernie Sanders continues to enjoy real momentum in the Democratic race. You pointed out and Sanders love to point out these days that he has won eight of the, nine last Democratic races. So for both of these candidates, this was a huge, huge night.

And of course something of a homecoming for both candidates as well. Trump and Hillary Clinton both have very deep roots here, and they both launched their campaigns in New York City. So for them to make their victory speeches back in New York City, that was especially personally significant for both candidates.

VAUSE: OK. M.J. Lee there in New York, thank you.

And joining us here now in Los Angeles, Dave Jacobson, a Democratic Strategist and campaign consultant with Shallman Communication. Also John Thomas, a Republican consultant and founder of Thomas Partners Strategies. As always good to have you with us. Let's start with Donald Trump. The big, big night for him. A real comeback after a bad couple of weeks. And tonight in his victory speech, a very different Donald Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We don't have much of a race anymore based on what I'm seeing on television. Senator Cruz is just about mathematically eliminated. As you know, we have won millions of more votes than Senator Cruz, millions and millions of more votes than Governor Kasich. We've won, and now especially after tonight, close to 300 delegates more than Senator Cruz. We're really, really rocking.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: So, John, who is this Senator Cruz of which he speaks? No more Lyin' Ted. We have Governor Kasich, Senator Cruz.

JOHN THOMAS, REPUBLICAN CONSULTANT: Look, tonight was really a huge night for Donald Trump.

VAUSE: And he was disciplined on this.

[02:05:01] THOMAS: But everything he did, let's look at his tie. He normally wears a bright red tie. Tonight was blue because he's showing that he's a uniter, right? He can cross over party divides. Everything Donald Trump did tonight was strategic. He's been saying that the establishment is out to get him, and he's now instead of Lyin' Ted, its Senator Cruz. And that's just to highlight the fact that Senator Cruz is party establishment and Donald Trump isn't.

SESAY: And Dave, let me ask you this. The never Trump, the stop Trump campaign, it was all about to trying to keep him below that 50 percent threshold in New York. They tried. They failed. Does this kind of win, this margin of win, does it give him the validation, the momentum he needs for the next contest?

DAVE JACOBSON, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: For sure. It was a blowout victory. I mean everybody was saying is he going to get past 50 percent? Is he going to be able to clinch even 55 percent? This was an enormous victory. And, you know, it sort of eviscerated any momentum that Ted Cruz had sort of after the big Wisconsin win.

And I think it's going to propel him moving forward with significant momentum into Maryland, pardon me Connecticut, Pennsylvania, some of these big delegate-rich states. And I think he can now make a case, there is a pathway for me legitimately to get to 1,237.

VAUSE: But it's still a steep climb.

THOMAS: It is, but Donald Trump reset the narrative tonight. Look, we knew he was going to win New York, but we didn't know by this much of a margin. He needed big momentum as we steam-rolled into California, which is where it all may end, and he got it tonight.

SESAY: Now he picked up the momentum, but let me ask you this. You talk about him, you know, him changing the optics of all this. But the narrative is still kind of tip toed around that idea of if he doesn't get it, it's because he was robbed. He's still keeping that narrative going because it's good for his base.

THOMAS: It is. He needs his people to stay with him that the establishment wants to stop him from getting it.

SESAY: Yeah.

THOMAS: And remember, I think Donald Trump understands that even if he doesn't get the delegate -- requisite delegate number, if he comes this close, he could make it probably difficult for the party at a convention to strip it from him.

VAUSE: OK.

JACOBSON: If I could jump in real quick,

VAUSE: Yeah.

JACOBSON: I think the other thing that was significant, if you look at turnout, it was astronomical on the Republican side. It's tough for me to say that as a Democrat, right? The better number, we didn't break any records tonight. But I think that underscores the fact that Donald Trump has a message that is resonating with a wide range of voters who normally don't participate in this process.

VAUSE: You know, John Kasich did better than Ted Cruz. Where he had Ted Cruz to say, yeah, I'm the guy that beat Donald Trump many time with John Kasich.

But, you know, resonate the point here. Marco Rubio who got out of the race back Florida, you know, back in March, he still has more delegates than John Kasich in this one.

THOMAS: Yeah. What is John Kasich doing in this race? I mean, honestly he should have done better that New York was a state as a moderate Republican that he should have done better in and he didn't. The fact is he has no statistical chance of getting the number of delegates he needs. He's hanging in this because who knows?

SESAY: OK.

VAUSE: We should say, so he won Manhattan.

SESAY: Yes.

VAUSE: Donald Trump, you know, where he lives. In that, you know, people who know Donald Trump didn't actually vote with Donald Trump.

THOMAS: I mean, I can't speak to that but on to Kasich front, the problem he's going to have after tonight with such a weak showing, is his money, he wasn't raising much before. Now it's going to completely dry up and it's hard to keep going without money.

SESAY: You mentioned Kasich but we've got to talk Cruz. What about him? How does he rebound? I mean, what do you say when he's all but mathematically eliminated, which is what Trump said.

THOMAS: Well, I think it's really difficult for Cruz coming out of tonight because the never-Trump movement was really getting oxygen by some of these, like, delegate stories where delegates were switching over to Cruz. But if you're supporting the never Trump or you're a big financier, after tonight you're going to get the Willys going do I want to keep investing in something, maybe a Trump train that can't be stopped?

VAUSE: OK, let's go on to this Democrat side now because, you know, we heard from Hillary Clinton. She's well on her way to getting this party nomination. She had this, you know, the victory speech. She went out there, you know, and tried to make this pivot yet again to the general election campaign, and Hillary Clinton, she reached out to the supporters of Bernie Sanders.

Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: It is humbling. It's humbling that you'd trust me with the awesome responsibilities that await our next president. And to all the people who supported Senator Sanders, I believe there is much more that unites us than divides us.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: But then after the outreach and the kumbaya moment, we had this statement coming from the Clinton campaign, from the spokesperson basically telling Bernie Sanders he needs to stop this destructive path. Stop the attacks on Clinton's character. It kind of blew the whole moment out of the water, didn't it?

THOMAS: Well, the two campaigns, they hate each other. It's clear. In fact ...

(CROSSTALK)

THOMAS: I mean, Jeff Weaver, of Bernie Sanders' campaign said tonight they're going to take this thing all the way to the convention floor no matter what the delegate math says. I mean, they don't like each other.

VAUSE: Dave, why would the Clinton campaign spokesperson come out? Is it just frustration right now?

JACOBSON: I think it underscores the heated rhetoric in sort of that sharpen to tax that we saw building up to New York.

[02:10:03] Look, I think Bernie Sanders right now has no viable path moving forward to getting to the 1230 -- pardon me the 2383 delegate number. I'm mixing in the different parties up. You know, but I think the reality is he has a choice, right?

Bernie Sanders can either embrace the sort of heated rhetoric. The sharpened attacks and continue to rip apart the fabric that holds the Democratic together and really hurt his chances moving into the convention to be a part of it, right? Or he can pivot back to his more optimistic, hopeful message, which really got -- built the movement around his campaign, and I think he can continue until California. He's got the resources to do that. But I think if he wants to participate in the general election, be part of the party's platform this summer, he's got to move away from these negative attacks.

SESAY: And you feel they may have hurt him, the negative attacks?

JACOBSON: Absolutely, right. I mean, look, there were polls showing that he was closing the gap, and then all of a -- you know, there was a poll his campaign put out just days before the election showing him six points behind. But then he loses by a whopping double-digits. I mean, think it really backfired, particularly when he called Hillary Clinton unqualified. You know, women voters were turned off by that.

VAUSE: I looked at the New York campaign for Sanders here. This was his last stand. He was an outsider. He won in an upset. He threw everything at Clinton, everything he had. He went negative. There were some false accusation they made by the Sanders campaign. He didn't even get close.

So, you know, he's gone back to Vermont now for a day to rest. He's made it clear he'll stay in the campaign. That's tonight. Is it possible maybe not tomorrow, maybe next week, they come out and say we're done?

THOMAS: I mean, I don't think so. He's got the money to keep going. He's going to go to California. California is a different kind of electorate than New York.

But tonight there are two stories for me on the Democratic side tonight. On the one hand, former Senator Clinton won her home state that she represented, OK?

VAUSE: Right.

THOMAS: On the other hand, you know, secretary Clinton always wins with different ethnicities like Latinos and African-Americans. But tonight she stomped senator Sanders with whites, which was Senator Sanders' base.

SESAY: And another point that she made to pick up on the diversity of her win is a point she made in her speech. She's won everywhere. She said that in a speech. She's won in the north, she won in the south, she won in east. She's making that point that she's getting these broad based wins. Draw that contrast with Sanders.

JACOBSON: Well, I think Sanders was making the case. Look, I'm picking scene have won eight out of the last nine contest. Sure, but those are primarily Republican state. She's dominating in Democratic strong holds. And I think it underscores the fact that she's building up the collection of voters that you need for a general election to be successful.

VAUSE: As you move forward here, you know, for Sanders even have a hope of winning, you know, in a majority delegates, why he needs that? He needs to take California by about 20 points, Pennsylvania and New Jersey by around 10 points.

I mean, this is not going to happen. So we heard from the Sanders campaign that essentially they're looking at flipping those super delegates. So we're getting to kind of hypocrisy here from the Sanders campaign after criticizing the super delegates, so all I'm saying now my entire campaign rests on flipping those super delegates.

JACOBSON: Right. And that would be a viable option for him had there been sort of the Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton dynamic where there was much more narrow gap with the delegates. She has enormous lead. She's about 700 delegates now combined with state delegates and super delegates.

And so, for him to sort of mount any effort to peel away those delegates, I think is not realistic at this point. SESAY: And the challenge she faces now of course is when she gave that speech at the end of this evening with the victory in New York, it was a general election speech. It was this is America. This is what America is about.

For as long as Sanders continues in this campaign and makes these attacks, she can't focus on that general election. And that is a problem for her.

THOMAS: Yeah, she has two -- she wants to go to the general election, but she can't.

SESAY: Yeah.

THOMAS: And she has to get Sanders' supporters to come on board, but a poll as of last week said that 25 percent of Sanders supporters said under no condition would they ever for Hillary Clinton.

VAUSE: Polls are reflective, not predictive, so we'll see what happens.

SESAY: He loves saying that by the way.

VAUSE: OK, Dave and John. Thank you for being with us.

[02:03:51] And we'll take a short break. But when we come back with CNN's special election coverage, we'll tell you why Bernie Sanders campaign is calls voter problems in New York on Tuesday a disgrace.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now, I don't want you to tell anybody this. Keep it shh, but Secretary Clinton is getting a little bit nervous.

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And to share with you what America has learned over the past few months, and it has nothing to do with a politician winning his home state tonight. It has everything to do with what we've seen in the towns and faces that have been weathered with trouble, joblessness, and fear.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SESAY: Hello, everyone. Welcome back. Decisive wins for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the New York primaries, moving both candidates closer to their party' nominations. On the Republican side, Donald Trump with a whopping 60 percent of the vote. John Kasich in second with 25 percent and Ted Cruz in third place with 14 percent.

VAUSE: And impressive margin of victory for Democrat Hillary Clinton as well as she looks to put the nomination out of reach for Bernie Sanders. Clinton, 57 percent. Bernie Sanders, 42 percent.

SESAY: Well, New York was plagued by widespread complaints of voting irregularities on Tuesday.

For more we're joined by Dylan Byers CNN Senior reporter for Media and Politics. Dylan always good to have you with us. Before we get to the issue of irregularities. Let's talk about the wins themselves. I mean Trump and Clinton not just winning but winning big.

DYLAN BYERS, CNN SENIOR REPORTER FOR MEDIA & POLITICS: Yeah.

SESAY: What does it mean?

BYERS: Winning very big. In a way, it doesn't mean anything, and in a way, it means a lot.

VAUSE: Let's talk on that.

BYERS: Here we go. We've oscillated between two polls in this election, right? We've had this story of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton being the front-runners and being decisive front-runners at that, and at worst what happens is Donald Trump goes to a contested convention with a huge advantage over Ted Cruz. The other pool outside between is momentum.

SESAY: Yeah.

BYERS: Bernie Sanders Ted Cruz having huge momentum, especially in smaller states, putting to say that we've won five out of the last six contests, seven out of the last eight, and this sort of causes us all to question just how much Hillary and Donald Trump are the front- runners. What tonight did is it reminded us once again that we always come back to that.

[02:20:02] We always come back to them being the front-runners, to them winning decisively, and more important than anything -- and you know, Ted Cruz can cast it off as it's Donald Trump's home state. It shows the limitations of Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz with their respective constituencies on each side of the political spectrum.

VAUSE: Again, let's look forward because there's Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware all to come. These are all good states for Donald Trump. No good states for Ted Cruz. I mean as the stop Trump guy that Ted Cruz is billing himself to be, you know, its not looking good.

BYERS: Right. This is -- again, this goes back to the problem with momentum or what they call big mo.

VAUSE: Yeah.

BYERS: You can only go -- momentum only matters if you can sustain it into territories like the northeast. If you can sustain it beyond certain small states where you have, like -- where your base has a robust voice in where you have big turnout. You have to do better than just some of these small states.

And when you see Ted Cruz giving Donald Trump a hard time for what saying, it's just your home state. Go back and look at what Ted Cruz was saying when he won Texas. He was making a much bigger deal about it. The point is that both Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders have been unable to really radically expand their base. And so that momentum that they love to talk about can only carry them so far.

SESAY: Talking about Hillary Clinton doing well in the state like New York, obviously -- I say obviously but she did well amongst minorities. That's expected, but also doing well with whites on this evening. Does this put pay to that question of electability?

BYERS: Yes, absolutely. I mean, in a big way. I would say, A, it sheds light just on the limitations of Bernie Sanders' electability in a general election. And for Hillary Clinton, it shows she's starting to make in serious inroads, and that's always been the big question. Can she win over those white voters, who are supporting Bernie Sanders, can she win over the young voters that are supporting Bernie Sanders?

There's no question she has a lot of work to do and frankly in her home state of New York she probably should have done better than the margin that she took tonight even though it was a resounding victory for her. She still has work to be done, but it's clear that she's the one who is going to be doing that work to win the nomination, not Bernie Sanders.

VAUSE: Well, the controversies over the past 12 hours or so, there was a huge voter turnout, record turnout for the Republicans. Big turnout for the Democrats hundreds of thousands of people, but more than 100,000 people went to vote and they found they had been taken off the voter rolls. One voter told us it took him five hours to cast a ballot.

Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This morning, I go to the polls. They look for me in their books. I'm not in there. So in Rick (ph) faith obviously they offer me an affidavit ballot. It's my right to vote in a normal ballot, so I decided to take it all the way as far as I could basically. So I drove over to Forest Hills Queens county board of elections, and I waited an hour and a half to see a judge. I saw the judge. He immediately ruled in my favor, gave me a court order. I drove 30 minutes back to Richwood, stall them the court order, and long behold, I voted and my vote counted.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: There are also allegations of fraud and people being bumped off the rolls, and, you know, Bernie Sanders has actually hammered this a couple of times. He's raised a lot of concern about voter irregularities.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SANDERS: It is absurd that in Brooklyn, New York, where I was born actually, tens of thousands of people, as I understand it, have been purged from the voting rolls.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: OK. Now, an election that wasn't really about winning the state. It was all about margin. And we're talking about 120,000 people, mostly Democrats off the voter rolls, a lot of them, it seems, you know, were leaning towards Bernie Sanders. What impact does this have moving forward, or does this just go away?

BYERS: Oh, no. I think it does have an impact. And first of all, Bernie Sanders is absolutely right. I mean, it's absurd not only that this would happen in Brooklyn. I mean, it's absurd this would happen anywhere in the United States of, America in 2016.

The biggest impact it will have, not to sound like a callous observer of political process -- the biggest impact this will have is on Bernie Sanders's ability to tell the story that he was robbed. Not necessarily that he was robbed of victory, but that he was robbed of a certain margin. He was maybe robbed of a delegate or two.

And by telling that story, he is going to be able to reinforce the narrative that the establishment is unwilling to let his movement -- and he has generated an incredible movement -- to let his movement really realize its full potential. That is going to anger voters. That is going to galvanize voters. That is going to allow him, like you were discussing earlier in the show, to take this all the way to the convention even if Hillary Clinton has the delegates she needs to win.

In order to sort of tell a story of hey, look, we're a movement. We're here. Were real the Democratic party needs to listen to us, and you can't show this out.

VAUSE: Same argument Donald Trump is making.

BYERS: That he's winning.

SESAY: Yeah.

(CROSSTALK)

VAUSE: Dylan thanks for coming in.

SESAY: Dylan, thank you.

BYERS: Thanks Isha.

SESAY: All right, time for a quick break.

[02:25:00] So far Donald Trump leads the Republican delegate count. Hillary Clinton is the top Democrat. But when you poll all registered voters, both candidates are widely disliked.

VAUSE: Very disliked.

SESAY: It's an odd situation. We're going to look into it, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: The race for the Democratic nomination is in the home stretch, and victory is in sight.

TRUMP: Thank you, New York. We love New York. We love New York. Thank you very much, everybody.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: Thanks for staying with us, everybody. You're watching CNN's live coverage of the New York Primary. I'm John Vause.

SESAY: And I'm Isha Sesay. It's just 11:30 here in Los Angeles.

VAUSE: Well, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump taking big steps toward their respective party's nominations with impressive victories in New York. Let's take a look at the numbers. The Republican Trump, 60 percent of the vote, Kasich second with 25 percent. Ted Cruz, third place there, 14 percent.

SESAY: Well, among the Democrats, Clinton is celebrating her win in the empire state. The margin of victory over Bernie Sanders even better than many of the recent polls predicted. Clinton with 57 percent of the vote. Bernie Sanders, as you see there, 42.

VAUSE: We're joined now by Larry Elder, a Syndicated talk radio host and a conservative analyst, also in that Matt Littman, a Democratic strategist. Guys, thanks for being with us.

SESAY: Awesome.

LARRY ELDER, SYNDICATED TALK RADIO HOST: Thank you.

VAUSE: OK. We're doing assumption now that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are most likely going to be their party's nominee. This general election, if we get to this point, will be an unpopularity contest, let's look at some of the numbers.

Trump has an historic level of negative ratings, 57 percent. I mean that's the highest for some polls that it's ever been.

[02:30:05] Hillary Clinton not far behind, we should add to that, she is at 52 percent when it comes to her unfavorable rating as well.

And Matt first, how did the Democratic get to the point where they are ...

JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR: 7 percent, I mean that's the highest for some polls that it's -- that ever been. Hillary Clinton, not far behind we should add to that, she is at 52 percent when it comes to her unfavorable ratings as well.

Matt, first to you, how do the Democrats get to the point where they are likely to dominate someone who is so widely disliked?

MATT LITTMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, let's remember that -- that's a loaded question, right? Let's remember that Obama's numbers are starting to go up now, right? And I think that's in comparison to when we see the Republican candidates, I see Obama's kind of scene. And I think that the same thing is going to happen in L.A. increasingly, Hillary's numbers. As we go on here and get sort of one-on-one contest with Trump, I expect that to be the case too. Let's also keep in mind that almost all the polls, Hillary beats Trump by double digits at this point.

ISHA SESAY, CNN ANCHOR: You got to weigh in Larry.

LARRY ELDER, RADIO HOST: Yeah. Well, Hillary is very, very unpopular, and I think when the e-mail scandal gets cooked up, because I think that there's going to be a criminal referral by the FBI to the DOJ, it's going to get even worse. But you're right, they are two very unpopular candidates. He haven't talked about the numbers among blacks and Hispanics, I think that Donald Trump's (inaudible) are 105 percent.

So -- But the good news is, the election is not until November. He's got plenty of time to work and he'll definitely will get much further.

(CROSSTALK)

LITTMAN: Historically, these times are not those numbers down further.

ELDER: You can't give what's (inaudible).

LITTMAN: I can 't believe that 30 percent in favor of ...

ELDER: And I think that Tump's got a secret weapon and you know that he's secret weapon is it's Ivanka, it's Eric, and it's Donald Jr., these are very sharp kids and say what you will about Donald Trump, he's raised very good kids that are respectful, that are humble, and he can't be that bad of a guy if he's raised these kinds of kids. I think a lot of people is.

LITTMAN: Well, I don't think that has anything to do with being president at all. ELDER: It has to do with likability.

LITTMAN: Well then his likability is very, very low. He has the lowest favorability ratings of any candidate.

(CROSSTALK)

ELDER: Actually in the Wall Street Journal poll that came out two days ago, he's at 65.

SESAY: He is. And as you mentioned that Wall Street Journal poll, Matt let me ask you this. It says that according to those numbers that Hillary has a 56 percent negative rating with voters, which is a five points from last month. That must worry you.

LITTMAN: Yes, I will. I mean, I think as Bernie Sanders' attacks have taken a little bit of a toll. I think the story that Larry said which is going to be proven to be false by the Department of Justice, we'll talk about that in a few more weeks. But that story has been out there for a little while and a lot of these hits are taking their toll, but I do expect as we get into one on one, Hillary versus Trump, I do expect those numbers to get better. Can we talk about how great she did tonight?

SESAY: Go right ahead. Put it in context.

LITTMAN: Well, a couple weeks ago we were talking about Bernie Sanders having all this momentum. As soon as we got to New York, that seems to have changed and I think over the next week or two, this is all going to be locked up on the Democratic side.

ELDER: For my perspective, and I know Matt will agree with this, when you look at the exit polling, it shows that people are overwhelmingly are concerned about the economy. They're concerned about economy, they're concerned about income inequality, added together it's all about the economy. And Hillary is running for the third term of Obama, and like it or not, Matt, most people feel that the economy is on the wrong track. And if I'm Hillary she's made no major criticism about Obama whatsoever. What's her argument for four more years?

LITTMAN: Can I just tell you something? A lot of those people voting for Trump, they're not voting on the economy.

ELDER: That's false.

VAUSE: Let's move on. Ted Cruz, not a good night for him. He walked away with absolutely zero. A big goose egg for him. Zero delegates. But now he's out there. He's trying to cast himself as the outsider.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TED CRUZ, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This is the year of the outsider. I'm an outsider. Bernie Sanders is an outsider. Both with the same diagnosis, but both with very different paths to healing.

(END VIDEO CLIP) VAUSE: Larry, who is Ted Cruz? Is he the party uniter? Is he the (inaudible)? Is he Trump's best friend? This guy changes every couple of months.

ELDER: Just a little while al, he was the alternative to Donald Trump (inaudible). Now he's back on the outside again. I 'm not quite sure who he is. All I know is that he does not have a path towards winning the nomination outright. The only way he can win is if there's a contested convention. And when you look at the polls, most Republicans feel that the guy that had the most votes, the most delegates and won the most contests should get the nomination even if he doesn't come to Cleveland with the majority.

SESAY: And Matt, as you talk conventions, I just wanted to toss it over on the Dems. The convention isn't shaping up to be all love and cuddles on the Democratic side of things either considering Bernie Sanders' ploy or his strategy. So what does that look like in your mind?

LITTMAN: Well, in terms of Bernie Sanders, I know he went off to Vermont tonight and it's really Sanders who has to make a decision at some point, does he want to compete attacking Hillary personally or does he want to talk about the issues and hope that those issues go on long after his candidacy. That's a decision he has to make. My expectation is that Sanders is going to come around. He's going to take some time to think about it. The party will be unified at the convention.

VAUSE: Is it a choice for (inaudible) or being a legacy?

LITTMAN: I heard that today, right. I heard that today. I did hear that today. Look, you have to make a decision. Sanders is not a dumb guy. He's a smart guy. He knows he's not going to win at this point. So what is his legacy?

[02:35:01] ELDER: The problem he had, Mark is about one in four of Bernie Sanders supporters say they don't care. They're not going to vote for Hillary. So Bernie may do kumbaya, but a lot of his supporters are very angry, very upset, and they believe all this stuff about the Wall Street people ripping them off. They believe all the stuff about Hillary being bought, about the whole thing being rigged.

LITTMAN: Fair amount of truth in that, except for the fact that in the last election ...

(CROSSTALK)

LITTMAN: Two times he got, went down. Hillary was running against Obama, the hot percentage of Hillary supporters who said they wouldn't support Obama was much higher. They ended up supporting Obama.

VAUSE: I want you to take a loot at this. This is the victory speeches tonight for both Clinton and Donald Trump. It was really interesting when you (inaudible). Take a look at this. Hillary Clinton she's surrounded by the Democratic party. You've got Bill deBlasio there, the New York mayor, Governor Cuomo, governor of New York state, a whole bunch of party people there. On the Trump side, it's just his campaign staff.

ELDER: And family.

VAUSE: And family. But clearly, you know, Hillary has the backing of the party. She's, you know, essentially bringing them together if you like. Trump is still going to have a lot of trouble. How hard is it to run a general election campaign if the party isn't behind you?

ELDER: It's going to be very difficult, but I think the party will be behind him. Come November.

SESAY: You really think so?

ELDER: I really do. Come November, looking at somebody who as I pointed out with a third term of Obama, somebody who supported the Iran deal, somebody's going to raise taxes, somebody's going to regulate more, someone's going to continue this march towards Medicare for everybody.

I think there'll be a great deal of enthusiasts for somebody like Donald Trump, who is a populist. He's not a fiscal conservative, but that's where the country is. The country is aligned with him about trade, and he's more against the Iraq war than even Bernie Sanders is. He even said that's the Bush administration lied about it. I mean my goodness, he's going to be kind of hard to fight.

SESAY: Matt, what's wrong, you know?

LITTMAN: I didn't hear a lot about Trump's actual positions, but let's remember that Trump spent a lot of time saying that he was one of the first people against the Iraq war, and then they went back to the tapes and it turned out he was for the Iraq war.

ELDER: No, he wasn't.

LITTMAN: Yes, he was. He actually said that -- he was ...

(CROSSTALK)

VAUSE: Thank you very much.

SESAY: Matt, thanks Larry.

VAUSE: OK. Here we go, look at that.

SESAY: Nicely done.

VAUSE: Donald Trump's victory in New York brings him closer to the party's nomination. We will speak to a Trump supporter and a stop Trump activist when we come back.

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[02:40:37] SESAY: Well, it's looking more likely that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be facing off against each other in November. For the Republicans, Donald Trump with a decisive 60 percent of the vote in New York.

VAUSE: Hillary Clinton's double-digit win in New York is casting some doubt on the future of Bernie Sanders' presidential hopes. Clinton winning her adopted home state with a 57 percent of the vote.

SESAY: Well, Trump's big win moves him closer to the Republican nomination. Joining us to talk about all of this is Trump supporter James Lacy, the author of Taxifornia and Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist and Trump opponent who joins us in Sacramento, California. Good to have you both with us. Rob, to start with you, as we look at the situation and Donald Trump's overwhelming win in New York, you've got to ask the question it looks pretty hard for Ted Cruz to come back, and that stop Trump coalition to gain victory.

ROB STUTZMAN, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, I think we need to remember we're only two weeks removed from that coalition having a phenomenal night of success in the State of Wisconsin. There are states ahead next week, and then Indiana in two weeks and finally the big show comes out here to California, where we are this evening. And there are almost twice as many delegates still at stake in California. So, there's a long way to go. And from the polling that we see in California, we're very confident that there's a path here to beat Trump for most of the delegates that are going to be available here.

VAUSE: Wisconsin, that was a lifetime ago. You know, it was such a long time ago, and that does look positive for Donald Trump, at least in the next couple of states. But James, you know, certainly with Mitch McConnell said this today, when a nominee gets to 1,237, he will actually be the candidate. If he does not, there will be a second ballot at about 60 percent of the delegates who are bound on the first ballot will be free to do what they want to on a second ballot and I'm increasingly optimistic that there may actually be a second ballot.

So, when you've got the leader of the Senate, you know, basically coming out saying I really hope there's a second ballot to deny Donald Trump the nomination, he then walked it back and said he was explaining the process. But this is the problem. How does Donald Trump win over the party establishment at this point?

JAMES LACY, AUTHOR OF TAXIFORNIA: Yeah, he just has to keep winning primary after primary because the establishment just doesn't want to believe it. You know, Rob just said he thinks the polling in California looks good for the anti-Trump forces. But, you know, Rob, that's just not true. The CBS poll that just came out shows that Donald Trump has 50 percent of the vote in California. Your premise is that he has 35 percent, you're looking at an old poll that came out around the time of Wisconsin primary.

The reality is is that Trump has 18 points ahead in this state, and that he wins in every demographic category within the Republican Party, old, young, women, men, Asians, Hispanics in the Republican Party. This is what's going to happen. As a result of this New York election, the big momentum is going to come, and it's only going to get better in the later primaries for Trump.

STAUTZMAN: Jim, why would there be momentum? He won his home state tonight as would be expected. So tonight he performed the way he should perform in his home state. Now we go back to other states where the coalition that assembled in Wisconsin can reassemble itself, and that would primarily, I'd say, look next in Indiana. And California, like the CBS poll in outlier to the average that has existed for two very reliable polls in the state. Plus, and I suspect you are too, I'm seeing polling in seats across the state. And I see 20 percent to 25 percent of Republican voters who are absolutely mortified about Donald Trump and are not going to vote for him.

There's real opportunity for Ted Cruz to grow here in many congressional districts. Remember, it's congressional districts here, just like in New York. And John Kasich may end up being viable in some area or districts.

CLACY: It's not just like New York. In New York you have a situation where two candidates can get delegates out of a congressional district. In California, it's winner take all. The outlier is the poll that you're relying on, which is the field poll. My landslide the Enson (ph) poll ...

STAUTZMAN: I'm relying on the real clear politic average which includes the L.A. Times poll as well.

CLACY: That's not the latest poll.

SESAY: And let me bring this point to your attention, Rob, that I hear what you're saying that the stop Trump coalition still feels good about its chances. But how do you deal with the fact that most Republican voters seem to agree with Donald Trump?

[02:45:02] A recent CNN poll found that 60 percent believe that if no candidate gets a majority then the one with the most support and delegates should be the nominee, which is most likely going to be Donald Trump. How do you go against the will of the party?

STAUTZMAN: Well, that's about process because that's what would appear to seem fair to most people. It's what actually a reasonable conclusion to probably come to. However, those are not the rules and a majority of Republican voters have not supported Donald Trump, and there's the polling showing that they don't continue to support Donald Trump in a majority.

The average in California, for instance, is about 38 percent, 39 percent. That's a plurality, and that's what he has successfully been able to use throughout this process. But as the field has narrowed and we get out of his home state of New York, he still has a lot of challenge to continue to win delegates with that mere plurality.

So, those are the rules. Trump needs to win by those rules if he's going to be the nominee. Look, I'll be the first one to agree, if he goes to Cleveland with the magic number of 1,237 to be the nominee, then he should be. He will have earned it. But until then, the rules are in play, and he needs to play this game effectively as well as everybody else, including winning at the polls but also winning in conventions and making sure he's courting delegates because that's the way the process works. CLACY: Well, Rob you're ignoring that 100,000 Democrats switched

their party affiliation to Republican in Pennsylvania, 20,000 Democrats switched their party affiliation in Massachusetts. In California, voter registration is up 20 percent right now, and you can't tell me that that's because people want them ...

STAUTZMAN: Yeah. And we're hearing from people that are re- registering Republican to vote against Donald Trump.

CLACY: Let me finish. OK, you know what, if they want to come in to the California Republican Party, you and others have presided over the most precipitous decline in Republican Party registration in history. Over the last two decades, Republican Party registration has gone from 40 percent to 27 percent in this state and you've been a part of that. I'm going to tell you something right now. Donald Trump is going to bring new registrants to this Republican Party, and he's going to reverse for the first time in two decades, he's going to reverse this trend downward. And I think you're going to see that by June 7th ...

STAUTZMAN: OK

CLACY: -- we're going to have a candidate that has enough delegates to win that nomination.

SESAY: All right.

VAUSE: So we'll have you guys back to continue this discussion because we would like to keep this going. But we'd like to have you guys back because we're running out of time.

SESAY: Yeah, please come back.

VAUSE: It's a good discussion to have and we promise. Thanks, Rob. We appreciate it.

SESAY: All right, thank you, guys.

Well CNN special elections coverage continues in just a moment. Just ahead, one of the stars of HBO's film confirmation talks about the election's possible effect on Supreme Court nominations and the race for the White House.

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[02:51:50] VAUSE: Welcome back, everybody. Thanks for staying with us. The outcome of the U.S. presidential race will have a decisive impact on the U.S. judicial branch. Right now, President Barack Obama is facing opposition over his nominee to fill a Supreme Court vacancy.

SESAY: And back in 1991, there was a different political fight over the nomination of Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas. A new HBO film relives that high stakes drama. Earlier, I spoke to one of the stars.

Wendell Pierce, it's great to have you with us. You play Clarence Thomas in the HBO film, "Confirmation." Some critics are calling this a Hollywood hit job on Justice Thomas. Does this film take sides?

WENDELL PIERCE, ACTOR: I don't think so. What we tried to do, especially what I tried to do is show his humanity. He's a man who was at the pinnacle of his career, who was ascending to the summit of his career and his legal profession, and something from the past came back and challenged it, you know, challenged the opportunity for him.

SESAY: How does that chapter from 25 years ago, the 1991 confirmation hearings, how do they resonate in the context of the current Supreme Court battle that's playing out right now?

PIERCE: Right now, as we're in an election year, you know the impact of that is profound. You realize in moments like this that your vote does matter and actually not voting matters because you are giving over to someone else deciding what happens in your life.

SESAY: Let's talk a little bit more about this moment wherein this race for the white House and the rise of someone like Donald Trump. What do you make of all of it? What has this revealed about America today?

PIERCE: Sometimes it can be very helpful to have a man like Donald Trump in the race because it makes it very clear the differences of opinion and political viewpoint and makes it very easy for people to make a choice. Either you support that's what is xenophobia and racism and, you know, just the whole idea of what religious freedom is about, all the things that we hold dear in American culture and in the constitution, and you see it threatened by the policies that this man is espousing. Then if you don't believe in those American values, you should vote for him. If you do, you need to protect those American values by making sure that someone like that does not attain power.

SESAY: You were a major fund-raiser for President Obama in the past, where do you stand on the Democratic candidates right now? Have you made a decision about who to throw your support behind?

PIERCE: I think they would both serve the communities well. The policies are there. The community development legislation going all the way back to the '90s and the Clinton administration, I've actually used to rebuild my community in New Orleans, where I put together community development corporation and took advantage of that legislation where you can access federal dollars so that you can actually develop your community.

[02:55:09] I believe the 21st century social justice movement is economic development. I believe that you give a person a job, you can stop bullets even. You can stop some of the violence. And so, that legislation and some of the policies that Secretary Clinton has been a part of in the past and still continues to be a part of is very, very helpful for the community.

Senator Sanders has great philosophical ideas. I want to see how he is going to put it in policy. So the specifics of what he wants to do, his message is very inspirational and aspirational, but being a middle-aged man, I kind of want the meat on the bones. I want a little bit more practicality. There's give and takes on both sides, but the most important thing is their policies are going to be more helpful for underserved communities than anything I see on the Republican side.

SESAY: Wendell Pierce, it's such a pleasure speaking to you. Thank you so much for making time to speak to us and share your insights.

PIERCE: Thank you for having me. Really appreciate it.

SESAY: You know what, well you're watching CNN's special election coverage live from Los Angeles. I'm Isha Sesay.

VAUSE: And I'm John Vause, please stay with us. The news continues with Rosemary Church and Errol Barnett on the East Coast right after this.

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