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CNN NEWSROOM

GOP Braces for Contested Convention After Cruz Win in Wisconsin; Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired April 6, 2016 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[10:00:29] CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me.

Frontrunners go down and chances of a contested convention, way up. Ted Cruz tops Donald Trump as Democrats in Wisconsin feel the Bern. Both candidates celebrating today after Wisconsin's critical primary.

On the Democratic side Sanders grabs his sixth consecutive win beating Hillary by more than a dozen points. And a big day -- a big day for the anti-Trump movement.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Tonight is a turning point. It is a rallying cry.

Let me just say, Hillary, get ready. Here we come.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Cruz stomps on Trump and picks up more than 30 delegates. Trump's path to the GOP nomination now in jeopardy as the Republican Party moves one step closer towards a contested convention. Trump would now have to win 60 percent of all the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination.

Is that even possible?

Christine Romans here is following the numbers for us. Good morning.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol. It's such an interesting night. Wisconsin was a must-win for Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders and they both did just that.

Let's look at those numbers. Cruz's decisive victory in Wisconsin shaking up the Republican race. He won more than 48 percent of the vote. 42 delegates up for grabs. Cruz will take 36 of them. Donald Trump will get three which means he's still on top of the GOP delegate race but as we get into the home stretch, the math isn't adding up for him to clinch the nomination before the convention.

This of course sets the stage for a delegate fight at an open convention. With 16 primaries and caucuses left to go, Trump will need to win 60 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to reach his magic number of 1237. Ted Cruz will need 88 percent and John Kasich would need an impossible 125 percent. So not impossible for Donald Trump to do it but unlikely.

For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders nabs more than 56 percent of the vote. That brings his number of pledged candidates to 1066, a little more than 200 behind Hillary Clinton's pledged delegate total.

Now Clinton leads with the so-called super delegates. Assuming all of them stay committed to their candidate, Clinton only nee 36 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to clinch her nomination. But super delegates don't count until they vote on the convention floor.

So what's ahead for Clinton -- Clinton's delegate-rich state like New York and Pennsylvania and California, she's already spent a great deal of time there. The Sanders campaign hoping some of his momentum causing those super delegates to jump ship. But you can still see here a long way to go for Bernie Sanders. He has to win 77 percent of all of the remaining delegates.

Now Republicans face the real possibility of not having their nominee before the start of their convention. Sanders' supporters dream of the same for them. But that's where we stand right now after Wisconsin, Carol.

COSTELLO: Remember back in the day when conventions were boring?

ROMANS: Proforma.

COSTELLO: And they didn't really matter. And we didn't want to have them anymore?

ROMANS: No.

COSTELLO: Not this time around.

ROMANS: Right.

COSTELLO: Christine Romans, thanks so much.

OK. So Ted Cruz's big win over Donald Trump now potentially resets the Republican race as the candidates set their sights on New York.

Let's bring in CNN's Phil Mattingly for that part of the story. Hi, Phil.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Carol. Well, last night was the night that anybody in the Republican Party that is aligned to try and stop Donald Trump's march to the nomination had been waiting for. A moment where the establishment coalesce with grassroots conservatives, with talk radio all behind one candidate for a major, major win.

Ted Cruz himself pointing out that this might change the tide of this entire race.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CRUZ: Tonight is a turning point. It is a rallying cry as a result of the people of Wisconsin defying the media, defying the pundits, I am more and more convinced that our campaign is going to earn the 1237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Now, Carol, one person we did not hear from, at least in public last night, was Donald Trump. A bit of a turn from what we usually see on primary nights. His big press conferences adorned with gold at his resorts, things of that nature. That didn't happen. He's also stayed off Twitter but he did have a very biting statement directed at Ted Cruz. Starting with, "Of course, lying Ted Cruz had the governor of Wisconsin, many conservative radio show hosts and the entire party apparatus behind him. Ted Cruz is worse than a puppet. He's a Trojan horse being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump."

[10:05:03] So Donald Trump, while he's talked about maybe moving into a more presidential tone in his campaign, not necessarily pursing that last night, Carol, but look, the race is now moving into Trump's territory. New York is the next primary up April 19th, 95 delegates at stake. Both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will be on the ground here today.

And for Trump's team, this is extraordinarily important. They believe they can pull as many as 90 delegates out of this state, really ride this into a series of states right now that look very good for Donald Trump on the map.

But, Carol, for the Cruz campaign, Wisconsin, obviously a big night. And as they hope, a turning point, not just to necessarily block Donald Trump but really to get them to a convention in a position to win, if not on the first ballot then in that open convention -- Carol.

COSTELLO: All right. Phil Mattingly, reporting live for us this morning. Thank you.

Even though Ted Cruz won in Wisconsin, it's not all rainbows and butterflies from here on out and here is why. According to exit polls, part of why Trump lost was because of the fear factor. Four in 10 voters said they were scared of a Trump presidency. And according to a recent CNN-ORC poll, 56 percent of all registered voters have an unfavorable view of Ted Cruz which means Cruz could face trouble in a general election if he's indeed the party's nominee.

So let's talk about all of this with CNN political commentator S.E. Cupp. I'm also joined by CNN political analyst and editor-in-chief of the "Daily Beast," John Avlon.

Welcome to both of you.

S.E. CUPP, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Hi.

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Good morning, Carol.

COSTELLO: OK. So, S.E., Donald Trump called Ted Cruz a Trojan horse. Is he right? CUPP: Well, I don't think he intended this, but in the beginning of

that statement, Donald Trump really gave Ted Cruz a compliment. He said that he coalesced -- establishment Republicans, talk radio, the party behind him, and that's what Ted Cruz has been really good at doing. Unifying everyone from grassroots to, you know, establishment personalities and voices behind his campaign in recent weeks.

Now some of that might be sort of an anti-Trump, you know, enthusiasm for Ted Cruz but it doesn't really matter. That kind of organization is what is propelling Ted Cruz's campaign through to the convention. And it's what will help him on those second ballot votes. And where Donald Trump is really lacking.

Now I think Donald Trump is going to probably go to the convention, maybe with the delegates already clinched, certainly a plurality of the delegates when he gets to the convention. But if it gets to -- excuse me, gets to a second ballot, that lack of organization, that lack of outreach to delegates in the -- you know, in the months beforehand could be a big problem for him.

COSTELLO: So what if it gets to a third ballot, John? Isn't that possible and doesn't that possibly mean a third-party candidate, some candidate we haven't heard of, maybe the nominee for the Republicans?

AVLON: Not necessarily. Not to rain on the rainbow and unicorn there. But it really would depend what the rules committee determined. The existing rules that are in place require a majority of delegates in eight states. So that puts a damper on any fantasies about Paul Ryan coming to save the Republican Party for itself.

But the question you asked, which I think is interesting is, is Ted Cruz, who is very effectively organizing the anti-Trump forces -- and this was a big win last night, but -- you know, and not dispositive as you point out because Trump has got some strong potential states coming for right up. Is Ted Cruz a more competitive general election candidate than Donald Trump? The one thing you can say is that he'll probably do better with Hispanics than Donald Trump. Low bar but important demographically.

But the reality is that, you know, Ted Cruz's entire political argument has been about ideological purity, and playing to the base, and that is not a message that generally works if you're trying to win swing voters in swing states in a general election. So that's the reality check for the Republicans rallying around Ted Cruz right now.

COSTELLO: Well, it's interesting because if you put Ted Cruz up against a Democratic candidate in a general election, he's very socially conservative. He's against gay marriage, right? And he's also against abortion in all cases with no exceptions, you know, for rape or incest. So how will those things play, S.E., in a general election?

CUPP: Yes. I think you -- it would be fair to say that before all of this, you know, election started, Ted Cruz was more of a fringe candidate. Now he has become sort of more normalized thanks to Donald Trump, and sort of the more palatable conservative candidate. But there's no question that in a general election, some of his views will put him outside of the mainstream of even, you know, moderate Republicans and independents. Now to that end, he's been recruiting senators like Mike Lee and Lindsey Graham to speak on his behalf and really court that establishment wing of the party and convince then, look, you might not have liked him in the Senate. You might have thought he was a divisive guy.

But now is the time to rally behind him and get behind a guy who is not Donald Trump, whose views and rhetoric, I think, are much worse and much less palatable to a general electorate than Ted Cruz is.

[10:10:15] COSTELLO: But still, John, even -- like Senator Lindsey Graham's support for Ted Cruz is so tepid, so does that even matter?

AVLON: Well, Lindsey Graham famously said that choosing between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will be like choosing between being poisoned or getting shot. And now he's actively out hocking poison. And, you know, that speaks to the fundamental problem the party is facing right now which is a problem of its own making. And yes, you do have center right leaders rallying around Ted Cruz, as S.E. pointed out, as an alternative to Donald Trump. By comparison, he looks like the better deal. At least he understands conservative catechism and to that extent complete the coalition together.

But let's not fool ourselves about what a competitive general election candidate he'll be. And I do think that John Kasich, while he is a -- you know, as Christine just pointed out, it's mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination outright, is the guy who's been polling ahead of Hillary Clinton consistently. And the fact that the party can't seem to elevate its most competitive general election candidate speaks to those deeper problems the party still has to confront, whether it's a nominee is Ted Cruz or Donald Trump.

COSTELLO: OK. So last question on the subject of John Kasich, S.E. Is it time for him to get out?

CUPP: I think it was time a long time ago. But John Kasich is slaying for that third ballot, essentially. He's trying to go to the convention and make the argument that John is and that Marco Rubio had been trying to make, that it matters if you can win in a general election and John Kasich is right, he is the most electable but he can't seem to get any more support except from his friends in Ohio.

And unfortunately, he's not running for president of Ohio. He's running for president of the United States. You know, but the Republican electorate just does not prioritize winning, beating Hillary Clinton as a top priority in this election.

COSTELLO: Interesting. I have to leave it there.

AVLON: That's a problem.

COSTELLO: Thanks for your insight. Both of you. I appreciate it.

With the win in Wisconsin Bernie Sanders has now beaten Hillary Clinton in six of the last seven states but the delegate math is still in Clinton's favor. And if Sanders really was to make a dent, he needs a blowout win, but the Bern better be on his toes because Clinton is unleashing a new campaign strategy on her opponent and it's nasty.

CNN's Jeff Zeleny has more on this. Good morning.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: It's all about New York, Carol. I mean, Bernie Sanders has had a lot of contests, never one in New York, never one with this media market here. And you just have to look at the tabloids, the morning tabloids, or the sign of the -- that Bernie Sanders is in a different environment here.

The Clinton campaign has tried ignoring him, they've tried brushing him aside, they've tried, you know, sort of gently dealing with him. Now they are employing a new strategy. They are trying to disqualify him and defeat him and they're going to try and unify the party later here. But Bernie Sanders has so much support coming into this. He has so much support in New York as well. One problem for Bernie Sanders, though, we're now entering a period of closed primaries.

That means only registered Democrats can vote, only if you've already been registered for a few weeks here in New York. So that is a different moment for him than in the Wisconsin primary and other open primaries. But Bernie Sanders has been focusing on not only Hillary Clinton but also on Donald Trump. Let's take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When we stand together and we don't allow the Trumps of the world to divide us up, whether we were born in America or born abroad, whether we are Muslims, Jewish or Christian. When we stand together, whether we are gay or straight, male or female, yes, we can create a government that represents all of us.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: And Carol, I asked the Bernie Sanders top official, what's the thing he really needs to do here to pull this off and they said to convince Democrats that he can actually win in the end. That's why he talks about Donald Trump so much, to show that he could beat him, too. So we'll see if that works.

COSTELLO: We'll see if that works.

Going back to Hillary Clinton becoming more nasty in her campaign tactics against Bernie Sanders, she gave an interview to Politico where she said -- she's not even sure if Bernie Sanders is a real Democrat.

ZELENY: You know, so I guess, what else could he be? Maybe a socialist? An independent socialist? Of course, that's what he's been. But, look, the Democrats, the registered Democrats so far haven't minded this. The Democratic Party rules allowed him in. He's running as a Democrat. So I'm not sure that that's going to hold much weight but she's trying to send a message that look, I'm the party person here. He's not been with us all that long.

[10:15:03] COSTELLO: All right. Jeff Zeleny, thanks so much.

ZELENY: Thanks, Carol.

COSTELLO: Still to come in the NEWSROOM, the GOP sets their sights on July and the Republican national convention. Could the rules be Donald Trump's biggest obstacle?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: As Republicans deal with the fallout from last night's Wisconsin's shakeup, a new key date is working its way on to the calendar. That would be July 18th. The start of the Republican national convention. Ted Cruz's victory, meaning the GOP, could be moving closer to a contested convention. For some, that's bringing back memories from 1976 and the nomination fight between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan, a fight Ford would go on to win and it was quite the raucous event.

Frank Donatelli was there. He's a former deputy chair for the Republican National Committee and the former political director for the Reagan White House.

Welcome.

FRANK DONATELLI, FORMER REAGAN WHITE HOUSE POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Hi, Carol. How are you?

COSTELLO: I'm great. So you were there 50 years ago. What was it like?

[10:20:01] DONATELLI: Well, first of all, 40 years ago. Not 50 years ago.

(LAUGHTER)

COSTELLO: Sorry.

DONATELLI: I feel old enough already. So it was -- it was a very intense convention. You know, when it's a contested convention and you don't know the ultimate outcome, there's just much more excitement and much more tension on the floor.

Also the role of the delegate, Carol, is very, very different. In an uncontested convention, they are basically studio participants. They are supposed to applaud at the right time. In a contested convention, they may actually be called upon to make decisions, possibly their ultimate choice as far as who the presidential nominee should be.

COSTELLO: So as raucous as it was back then, what do you supposed a contested Republican convention would be like on July 18th?

DONATELLI: Well, I think it would be even more so. You know, in 1976 you didn't have all the media surrounding the convention like you have now. And President Ford and Ronald Reagan were, you know, I would say, pretty traditional Republicans. Now you have some outsized personalities that are going to be part of the convention. So it would be a very, very exciting thing and would have to see what would happen.

COSTELLO: Yes, we will. Hopefully it will only be an exciting thing, right?

So in a statement, Donald Trump's campaign called Ted Cruz a, quote, "Trojan horse." In other words, he's being used to steal the nomination. Do you think that's true?

DONATELLI: Well, look, let's understand something. From the time of the Republican Party, which does predate Donald Trump, you get the nomination by having a majority of the delegates. He doesn't have a majority of the delegates. No one has a majority of the delegates. So everyone, all the candidates have a right to go to Cleveland and try to get that number of delegates.

Trump will probably have a plurality but that does not give him a majority. What the trailing candidate wants to do in a contested convention is try to force procedural and ideological votes so that there is not a predisposition to vote for the frontrunner. I think in Trump's case, he's so at variance with what most Republicans believe on a wide variety of votes, he' probably vulnerable to a platform fight, for example.

So if Cruz or somebody else forces the number of votes on the platform that Trump were to contest and lose, it might make his nomination less likely. And so delegates may have the opportunity to vote their conscience if we go to multiple ballots.

COSTELLO: So, you know, the process is so complicated and so difficult to understand and it is difficult to understand that a lot of voters out there think that it's not necessarily a democratic process. Especially, I would say, Trump supporters who will definitely think that the RNC is trying to steal the election for their chosen candidate.

DONATELLI: Well, the RNC doesn't have a chosen candidate. I don't know who that would be. I mean, we had nine candidates when we started.

The process, Carol, is always as it's been. It takes a majority of delegates at the Republican national convention to win the nomination. Now how those delegates are selected has changed dramatically over time. If you go back 30, 40 years ago, back to 1976 a good deal of the delegates were selected by state conventions, and by party leaders. Over the years, that has changed so that the vast majority of delegates but not all are now selected in primaries and are bound to one candidate or the other.

So it's a mixed process. I don't think it's fair to say, well, I won the first half of the Super Bowl so the second half doesn't count. We're in the second half now and if Trump feels like he should be the nominee, he's got to continue to compete and to try to get a majority of delegates. As of right now, it looks like we're going to go to Cleveland and no one is going to have a majority. It will be up to him to convince undecided delegates that he's the right candidate.

COSTELLO: OK. And the last question about contested conventions in general. So when a candidate finally emerges, a nominee finally emerges, is it likely that nominee goes on to win in a general election? Because it didn't happen in 1976.

DONATELLI: No, it didn't. You know, it depends. Recently the feeling has been that if you have a divided convention, that hurts you in the general election. But, you know, a lot of it depends on the candidate. I mean, it's up to the candidate to put forward a positive message that a lot of people will understand and buy into.

I personally believe that after eight years of this administration with the worst economic record of any president since World War II, that a Republican candidate talks about an inclusive uplifting message that talks about making America get moving again and getting our economy moving again, whether he's the product of a divided convention or not would be a very strong candidate against a very weak Democrat, most likely Hillary Clinton, in the general election.

[10:25:24] COSTELLO: All right. Frank Donatelli, thank you so much for stopping by.

DONATELLI: OK. Thanks, Carol.

COSTELLO: You're welcome.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, the countdown is on to the CNN debate. So how hard is Hillary Clinton prepared to hit Senator Bernie Sanders?

We'll ask a Clinton campaign spokesman next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: And good morning, I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me.