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LEGAL VIEW WITH ASHLEIGH BANFIELD

Michigan Primary; Super Tuesday II; Delegate Race; Political Ads. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired March 8, 2016 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:00:15] ASHLEIGH BANFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone. I'm Ashleigh Banfield. And welcome to LEGAL VIEW.

This is election day in America. I know, again. But this time voters in four more states are helping to shape and maybe just narrow these nominating races. And while the voters do their thing, the candidates are doing their thing. Republican John Kasich is about to speak in Michigan, the biggest delegate jackpot of the day, that's on the left- hand side of your screen. Ted Cruz is on deck in North Carolina, which votes next Tuesday. That's far on the right side of your screen. And we're waiting for him, in fact. That candidate's about to speak to the press live. We're going to listen in on both of those candidates the moment they appear.

And you've got ballot cams right in the middle of your screen. That is Warren, Michigan, folks. Michigan is key today. But in all, 150 Republican delegates are up for grabs today in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii. Democrats are competing today in just two states, Michigan and Mississippi.

Nationwide, there are some brand new signs, folks, that the races are getting tighter. Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz by just nine points in this brand new poll out from ABC and "The Washington Post." But back in January, that gap was way bigger. It was 16 points.

Among the Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by seven points, but, again, back in January, that was a lot bigger of a lead. It was 19 points back then.

An even newer poll, literally, literally released just a moment ago from NBC and "The Wall Street Journal," has a very similar view of the Democratic race. Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by nine points. In January, she was down by 25 - Sanders was down by 25 in January. So you can see how things have been changing as the campaigns get tighter.

Polls in Michigan suggest that a Super Tuesday indeed could be ahead for the frontrunners of both of their parties, Trump and Clinton. But the only numbers that matter right now are the vote totals, and that means you folks. It also means Jean Casarez, who's watching you folks, can weigh in from Warren, Michigan.

So this is the ballot cam in Warren, Michigan. What does it look like? Because turnout in the south has been huge. I'm wondering if you're feeling the same thing in Michigan today, Jean.

JEAN CASAREZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Ashleigh -

BANFIELD: Jean, can you hear me? Can you hear me OK? Just looking for turnout and how things feel there.

CASAREZ: Hi. Ashleigh, I can - I can hear you. I can.

Yes, I want to tell you, we're here in Warren, Michigan, and it's been a steady stream of voters. Michigan is so important, Ashleigh. As you just said, because this is the Midwest and this is going to give the pulse of what is going to happen possibly in Illinois, in Ohio, because the Midwestern voters are showing their opinions today by this voting.

I want to tell you, I've talked to so many voters and let me tell you what I'm not hearing. I have not heard the name Ted Cruz come out of the mouth of one voter. I have not heard the name Marco Rubio come out of the mouth of one voter. I am hearing Donald Trump, because we are right here in the auto industry country. Auto industry is just miles from us. But I'm also hearing John Kasich out of Ohio. That is a name that people are saying. They are loyal to him because he is Midwestern. They like what he has to say.

As far as on the Democratic side, a life-long Republican told me that in this open primary, because it doesn't matter what party you are, you can vote for the other side. He said that he voted for Bernie Sanders. A life-long Republican voting for Bernie Sanders because he believes he has the will of the people. Several people voted for Hillary Clinton. I asked them why. They said because of Bill. And the thing that amazed me the most, a man said that he voted Republican and he's a life-long Democrat. He voted for Donald Trump, not because he wants him to win, but because he wants him to win in the short term because he thinks Hillary can beat him in the long-term general election.

Ashleigh.

BANFIELD: That's amazing we're hearing those stories all the time of people switching parties completely. The absolute antithesis.

Jean Casarez, keep an eye out for us there in Warren, Michigan. Thank you for that.

I want to dig into this Michigan race because there's a lot that is telling about Michigan. We've got two very astute observers. David Gergen, a CNN senior political analyst and White House adviser to four - count them - four presidents. Errol Louis is a CNN political commentator and political anchor at Time Warner Cable News, and I like to call him also the walking Wikipedia of politics.

So, first and foremost, guys, I do want to talk about - about how the polls have been changing. Nationally, we have seen a shrinking. The Donald Trump lead nationally has been shrinking from about 16 points in January to nine points ahead of Ted Cruz. And in Florida we've seen that same shrinking with other polls. I think the shrinking in Florida was about eight points or so. It looks almost like the national shrinking. And there is some talk that Trump may have peaked.

[12:05:24] I know it's a little difficult to two take polls, but, David Gergen, weigh in on this whole notion, with all of your history and watching waves and peaks and ebbs, do you get the same feeling?

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I do have a feeling that the assault on Donald Trump coming from all sides are taking some of the paint off the car and it's sort of chipping away at it now. To me, the biggest strong wind (ph) was not just the shrinking, but one of these polls that has just come out shows that among Republicans and among independents leaning Republican, over half now think that Donald Trump is dishonest. Over half think he's dishonest. That's the anchor that Hillary Clinton has been carrying around for a long time. If voters think both of them are dishonest, it will wipe away that advantage that Republicans might have had. If they have Donald Trump (INAUDIBLE) he's got to deal with this question now.

I do think he's likely, Ashleigh, I think he's likely to get a boost today, both in Michigan and in Mississippi. And some of these doubts will - may subside for a bit. He's going to be hard to stop. The man to watch is John Kasich today.

BANFIELD: OK.

GERGEN: He's surging in Michigan. He - he's perhaps -

BANFIELD: And he's been - he's been talking about Michigan and Ohio being his -

GERGEN: (INAUDIBLE).

BANFIELD: Being his savior. Yes, I -

GERGEN: Absolutely. He could be the one person that could stop Donald Trump at this point.

BANFIELD: All right, so I do want to talk about something that's getting a lot of traction. It's on a lot of newspapers. It made the morning shows this morning, and that is some imagery that's coming from Trump rallies. It's sort of this recent trend where he's been asking all of his followers to take a pledge and put up their right hand. And it really depends on the phone you look at. Here you can definitely see people with their right hands up taking a pledge, but other photos make it look like they're actually saluting, almost as a "Hail Hitler" analogy. And it's been uncomfortable to a lot of people.

And he was asked about that by Matt Lauer on the "Today" show this morning. I want to run his sound bite. It's on the phone, unfortunately, guys, because he canceled all of his on-camera appearances. He was heard by a technician saying, I don't like the way I look, so just tell them there's a technical issue, but he carried on his interviews all by phone. And this is why we're hearing his comment by phone.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE (voice-over): Sometimes we'll do it for fun and they'll say - they'll start screaming at me, do the swear in, do the swear in. I mean they're - they're having such a great time. They're massive crowds. I get, you know, by far the biggest crowds. And we're having a good time. Honestly, until this phone call, I didn't know it was a problem.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: Errol Louis, until this phone call, I didn't know it was a problem. And I think he went on to say, when pressed by Matt Lauer, whether he's going to do something about it and would you stop doing this? He said, I'll certainly look into it, which we've heard him say a lot of times and then we don't hear much later. But there's a problem when it comes to race and he's been hammered hard on race.

ERROL LOUIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, sure. I mean, look, when it comes - first of all, when it comes to the - the pledge to go out and vote, there's a very practical side to this, you know, where you've got early voting states where people can go out literally from the rally and go cast a vote that day, it really helps to cement it. And we know this because there is solid research on it that once people say that they're going to do something, you know, you can sort of nudge them a little bit - it's a little easier to nudge them to the polls and get that vote in the bank on that day.

Now, the imagery looks horrible. So, understandably, maybe Donald Trump might want to walk away from that. On the other hand, you know, if it's working for him, if he's putting votes in the bank on that day, you know, all the negative imagery in the world is not going to be worse than what Donald Trump has already been experiencing and, frankly, surviving through.

BANFIELD: David Gergen, I want to move on to Marco Rubio in Florida. He's got robo calls going out to people in Florida saying, hey, Floridians, here's the deal, if you don't like Donald Trump, the only way you can beat him is to vote for me, because I can beat him. Cruz can't beat him. Kasich can't beat him. And then, on top of that, there's actually calls going out, you know, by - by Mitt Romney, too. Is this strong enough for him? Is this the only strategic move that he can make in Florida?

GERGEN: I think he doesn't have a lot of moves left, but I don't think this is strong enough. Robo calls can help modestly, but they're not going to make a big - big difference. He's got to find some over avenue, some other exciting thing that gets people to vote for him. You know, he has - he is closer. He's - perhaps the polls suggest he's within 10 points now. But we know there's a lot of resistance. I think the single most important thing he can do is to endorsement of Jeb Bush. And the fact that Bush has held back, despite the pressure on him to endorse Rubio, just underscores how deep the bitterness is on both sides.

[12:10:03] BANFIELD: All right, I'm going to get the two of you to stand by, if you will. I have so many more questions for you. There's the Democratic side of the race and there's just digging into Florida, which I want to do as well.

So, stand by, gentlemen, if you will.

Looking ahead to next week's contest in Florida, the GOP ad war is on.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Corrupt Marco Rubio has spent years defrauding the people of Florida.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Trump entrusted convicts to help him run his company. Who would he entrust to run the country?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: Wow. Wow. That's bad, right? Guess what, it's even worse. You're going to see just how ugly this is getting after this.

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BANFIELD: Welcome back, everyone. Nice to have you on this very Super Tuesday. We've got some live pictures for you of the voting that's underway right now in Jackson, Mississippi. Happy to bring you ballot cams from all around the nation. We've got four GOP states at play today. And for the Democrats, two, Mississippi and Michigan. For the - for the Republicans, it's Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii.

[12:15:01] And as millions of people head to the polls, the sequel to Super Tuesday gets underway. Some GOP candidates are already looking ahead to next week's pivotal contest, though, in the winner-take-all states, otherwise known as the big kahunas, Ohio and Florida. CNN's Tom Foreman breaks down why that is.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Look at all the states that have voted so far, and look at the delegates that have been collected by the four remaining Republican candidate s here. Ted Cruz has been surging a little bit lately. This is the number they all need going to get to if they're going to win the nomination, 1,237 delegates. Anyone of them gets that, they are the nominee immediately.

So why would Trump, to any degree, be looking past Ted Cruz to Marco Rubio and John Kasich, down here with much fewer delegates? Because next week this contest goes into the winner-take-all phase, meaning that whoever wins a given state gets all of the delegates. And Florida is coming online. That is Marco Rubio's home state. It has 99 winner- take-all delegates. Rubio is outspending Trump there right now and he's polling relatively well. He's behind Trump, but not way behind. The same day, Ohio comes online. That's where Kasich is the governor. He's also polling relatively well, and there are 66 winner-take-all delegates. So you see what's happening here.

If both of these fellows lose, they will be pushed hard to get out of the race. But if they both win, they put a significant impediment in front of Donald Trump to get to that big number he needs to reach there. Look at this, 848, that's how many delegates he needs to get at this point to clinch the deal. If Rubio and Kasich and Cruz collectively get to that number before Donald Trump, then you are in all likelihood talking about a brokered convention.

BANFIELD: Our Tom Foreman doing the amazing math with the map. Map math.

While we're on the topic of the winner-take-all contest, like Florida, the sunshine state is proving to be a key battleground in the GOP establishment's attempt to bring down the frontrunner Donald Trump. There are a couple of super PACs that are blanketing the airwaves in attack ads in the state of Florida. And the latest one is, well, listen. Cover your ears or get the kids out of the room. We've done our best to cover up, but all we can say this is a highlight reel of Trump's most salty language.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I went to an ivy league school. I'm very highly educated. I know words. I have the best words. Listen you (EXPLETIVE DELETED).

He gets the nomination, they're going to sue his (EXPLETIVE DELETED).

She said he's a (EXPLETIVE DELETED). I don't give a (EXPLETIVE DELETED).

We'll beat the (EXPLETIVE DELETED) out of them.

They're ripping the (EXPLETIVE DELETED) out of the sea.

Bull (EXPLETIVE DELETED).

What the hell are we doing?

You're going to raise that (EXPLETIVE DELETED) price.

I have the best words. And you can tell them go (EXPLETIVE DELETED) themselves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: I do declare.

In the meantime, Mr. Trump is in the lead in Florida according to this recent Monmouth poll. But - and here's the big one - it's just by a narrow margin now over Senator Marco Rubio. This race is tightening there. And because of that, Trump is taking aim at his next closest rival in Florida, Marco.

I want you to take a look at part of Trump's latest attack ad against Rubio.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): Rubio's been a total no show in the U.S. Senate, with the worst voting record of all. Marco Rubio, another corrupt, all-talk, no-action politician.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm Donald Trump and I approved this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: Joining us now to talk about the race, CNN's senior political analyst David Gergen is back with us, along with CNN political commentator Errol Louis.

You heard me say, I do declare. I'm from Canada, so it's really hard for me to put that on, but it is - it's pretty powerful to hear that.

David Gergen, let me start with you. These ads f-ing work, don't they?

GERGEN: Yes, they do. And that - that PAC ad against Donald Trump I think is a - is a - is a tough ad on him. Americans don't really like coarse, crude presidents. We know that from the past. And I think especially in the - in the wake of Nancy Reagan's death, and all the eulogies and remembrances of Nancy and Ronald Reagan, remembering how careful he was to preserve the dignity of that office, I think these - this is not a helpful time for Trump to be - voters to be reminded of just how crude Trump often has been and he needs to tone it down.

BANFIELD: Yes, I'll tell you what, since the attack ads have started, at least in Florida we've got some polling from, you know, late January, rather late February, that had him 16 points ahead of Marco Rubio.

GERGEN: Right.

[12:20:02] BANFIELD: And that has now been squeezed down to just eight points. So he's lost eight points and he's only eight points ahead now. And so there is some talk that maybe it is this all-out assault against Donald Trump that some people say is a little too late. But then there's the other end of it. There's attack ads and then there's the kind endorsements. And so far, Errol, Jeb Bush has not endorsed anyone. And "The Orlando Sun Sentinel" has said they refuse to endorse any of the Republican candidates at this time. At this point, does that even matter? Do the endorsements matter or is it going to be this ad war that is just hot as blazes?

LOUIS: Some endorsements matter than others. And it really does matter that Marco Rubio hadn't gotten the endorsement of Jeb Bush, which actually might really help him out at this point. I mean, you know, when you're talking about a matter of mere percentage points, a couple of points wouldn't hurt him at this - at this level. The same is true with the - with the newspaper endorsement. You know, you need somebody to sort of vouch for you, in part because Marco Rubio was getting beat up, not just by Donald Trump, but Ted Cruz is running negative ads on him. Both Trump and Cruz have the same thing in common, they want to see Marco Rubio lose Florida and get out of the race so that they can settle down into a one-on-one contest. That's not good news for Marco Rubio because he hasn't really sort of consolidated strength in his home base, witness the lack of endorsement from Jeb Bush and from some of the important newspapers. So he's got a problem on his hands.

BANFIELD: So along comes news today that Ted Cruz has decided to open up ten offices in Florida, a place where he had decided not to open up any prior to this. But at last math, and this is from the Monmouth poll, he's 21 points behind Donald Trump. This is a winner take all state.

David Gergen, why would anybody, at this late time, decide to make a play for Florida when you're that far back?

GERGEN: Anything he can do to take away votes from Marco Rubio is a good thing to do for Ted Cruz. You know, so he wants to lower the Rubio numbers so he can knock him out of the race. I - and I - I - there is one endorsement - you know, the Mississippi governor did today endorse Ted Cruz, which is going to help him in that state. But we also - the news just broke that Rudy Giuliani has just endorsed Donald Trump. And there are a lot of New Yorkers living in Florida. Maybe that will help him some. There are still favorable memories. Remember when Rudy ran for president way back when.

So this - I do want to have - one caution, Ashleigh, and that is, the Monmouth poll is a single poll. We'll have to see a few more to really understand (INAUDIBLE) the margin (INAUDIBLE). Some other polls suggest that Trump still has a comfortable lead. Let's wait and see a bit longer just how much - how threatened that - that Trump is in Florida. We're not quite certain.

BANFIELD: You're right. That's the Florida story. But I can tell you this, "The Washington Post"/ABC News poll that just came out -

GERGEN: Yes.

BANFIELD: Literally just came out, I mean that's a big strength. That's a - let's see, he was 37 points ahead of Cruz. - oh, sorry, he was - he was at 37 and he has dropped back to 34. Cruz has gone up from 21 to 25. So there's some shrinking there without question. Nationally speaking. But you're right about the Florida.

GERGEN: Right. There's no - there's no - there's no question.

BANFIELD: We need more numbers to know.

GERGEN: Yes, we need more numbers.

BANFIELD: And clearly we need the number, the voters numbers, which matter the most.

All right, guys, thank you so much. Errol, appreciate it. David, appreciate it.

GERGEN: Thank you.

BANFIELD: I want to take you now to John Kasich, who's live in Lansing, Michigan, right now, so we can listen in to what he's saying to his potential voters.

GOV. JOHN KASICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Across at this guy and he - he had something in a brown paper sack and he was weaving back and forth. And finally he looked at me and he went, "lookin' good." But, anyway, listen, I - this tie has a special, special meaning for

me because we have a little town down in Ohio where one day a foreign company, HDL, decided they were leaving. And they left thousands and thousands of people unemployed. The workers had done everything the right way. Everything. They were productive. They played by the rules. They got it - put in an honest day's work for an honest day's pay. And then, you know, out of the blue, they were told they didn't have a job anymore.

In fact, it was such that they - they opened food pantries all over the town and it was part of that - one of those television shows, Rachael Ray came out to help them in the - help them in the food pantry. And the people were really down.

But you know what? Little by little, little by little, the town is coming back because the state representatives, the administration has been focusing on that town down in Ohio. And I showed up not long ago with a big announcement of, I don't know, 400 or 500 jobs, and I wore this tie and I said, you know, I told you during the campaign the sun would come up. And this tie represents the hope that the sun is really coming up in your town. And God bless you.

[12:25:13] BANFIELD: And John Kasich has big hope for Michigan. He is holding out a lot of hope that he'll perform well in Michigan and then, of course, in his home state of Ohio. Could be his last stand, in fact, if he doesn't perform well in Michigan and certainly in Ohio.

We're going to get back to politics in just a moment. But first, he fought long and hard against this, but a court of appeals says that this man, a Baltimore police officer named William Porter, will indeed have to testify against all five of his fellow officers in the case of the Freddie Gray death. What impact will this have on their trials? And what about his fifth Amendment right to self-incrimination fighting (ph)? So many questions about this, next.

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