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Osama bin Laden's Will; Super Tuesday. Aired 3-3:30p ET

Aired March 1, 2016 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[15:00:11]

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: And we continue on. You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you so much for being with me on this most important of days, Super Tuesday.

We're back with our special live coverage here.

Listen, millions of Americans, they're out and about today. They are casting their votes in the most important battle thus far in this presidential race, 11 states on each side. They're holding contests.

And let me just show you here what's at stake. First up, you have the Republicans here, and check out the red states there on your map, 595 delegates there at stake, almost half the number needed to clinch that nomination. But without question, the crown jewel today, the state of Texas, with a massive 155 delegates.

For the Democrats, 865 delegates there, more than a third of what is required to win that party's nomination.

We have CNN crews fanned out all across the country at campaign events and polling places.

So with me now this hour, I have Chris Frates, CNN investigations correspondent. He's live for us in Louisville, Kentucky. Also standing by, CNN's Brian Todd at a voting station there in Northern Virginia, and CNN's Martin Savidge in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

But, Mr. Frates, to you first, sir, where Donald Trump is about to hold his second rally of the day. And just as he was in Ohio looking ahead to that primary, March 15, it's not a Super Tuesday state.

CHRIS FRATES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No, that's exactly right, Brooke, and I will tell you, a lot of excitement here in Louisville, the lines going around the block here, around the convention center as people wait in the rain to get in to see Donald Trump.

And if you want to see how Donald Trump is feeling today, just look at the map. He was in Ohio today. They vote March 15. It's not a Super Tuesday state. Here in Kentucky, they don't vote until Saturday, so Donald Trump already looking ahead past today's votes to the next contest, of course taking shots on the stump today, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, but also saving his sights and setting his target on Hillary Clinton, saying she's not strong enough to be the next president of the United States. And that's no mistake there, Brooke. He's looking towards a future where he's the Republican nominee, Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. And to give you some sense of maybe how he's thinking today, he tweeted this out just yesterday, Gandhi quote where he said -- quote -- "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

So, maybe a little peek in Donald Trump's mind as he gets going here in Kentucky and then goes on to Florida to watch these results roll in, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Chris Frates, thank you very much.

Brian Todd, to you, sir. You're there in Virginia. You have been there for a number of hours, done a little bit of informal sampling. What are voters in Virginia telling you?

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Right.

Brooke, a lot of voters are saying they're going kind of against their traditional voting patterns here in Northern Virginia and we're watching that very closely because of who it might benefit. Here are some sample ballots. This is the Republican ballot, Democratic ballot right here.

And how this process works here is crucial, especially for candidates like Marco Rubio and Sanders on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders, because there are a lot of first-time primary voters here, a lot of crossover voters. Sanders and Marco Rubio benefit from those.

You come in and you don't have to register by party. You select one of these two ballots after checking in here. Then you vote by paper over here. Going to sidestep these voters here. You vote by paper behind these partitions. Then your vote gets tabulated in the scanner right here.

Now, the reason that we're watching this so much is, our own sample balloting when people come out of the polls, what we have talked to people about, you know, is who did you vote for, why, and when did you decide? That's crucial. Marco Rubio does well with last-minute deciders. There are a lot of those here in Northern Virginia, a lot of those here in this precinct.

He also does well with first-time primary voters. Among our sampling, fully a third of them are first-time primary voters. As a result, Rubio is aware of that. His campaign is aware he does well in those demographics. He has poured a lot of resources here in Northern Virginia. He was here in this town two days ago. Hundreds of thousands of dollars in ads over the weekend.

The big question is, are those people going to be enough to help Marco Rubio beat Donald Trump in Virginia? The polling does not suggest it will be enough for him. Some political analysts say if he can't do well in Virginia, if he can't win in Virginia, pull out an upset victory or at least get some good delegate counts of Northern Virginia, then his candidacy might be in trouble. So that's why we're watching that so closely right now, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Please do. We shall see. Brian Todd, thank you very much.

To Tennessee, to Martin Savidge, where we know 58 Republican presidential delegates are up for grabs there, 67 Democratic delegates.

What are you seeing there in Chattanooga?

MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, say hello to Lookout Valley here in Tennessee. It's located on the outskirts of Chattanooga.

It's a relatively small precinct, but they have been voting like crazy all day long here. There was a line of people waiting to get in around 7:00 a.m. this morning, significant because the polls don't open until 8:00 a.m.

[15:05:02]

And even though this is a small precinct, the lines have been consistent all day long. What's remarkable is that Tennessee also has early voting. And they had a record turnout for that, 17 percent above the previous record for early voting, which you would have thought meant the lines of people showing up on the actual day to vote would be down, but, oh, no, there have been many, many people wanting to come in, which shows the enthusiasm that there is.

One last thing I should show you. This is the Republican sample ballot. The candidates are up here, but look down here. You can actually vote for the delegates that would go to the convention. You're only supposed to vote for 14. The problem is, some people are voting for more than that. That invalidates this ballot.

You have to start all over again. They're working through that problem. So far, there is a steady stream of anxious people to get in here and casting their ballots. They want to vote.

BALDWIN: Martin Savidge, we will check in with you through the day here on this Super Tuesday. Thank you.

As we watch all these votes come in, let's talk about what's at stake today with David Gregory, former moderator of "Meet the Press." CNN political commentator Donna Brazile, who's vice chairwoman at the Democratic National Committee, Donna is also a superdelegate who has not endorsed a candidate. And Sam Clovis, who is campaign co-chairman and policy adviser for Donald Trump.

Welcome, welcome. Nice to see all of you.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Let's begin with you, sir.

Donald Trump has said over and over he wants to run the table. And especially when you look at the states tonight, do you think he can pull it off? Will we be waking up tomorrow morning with him as really, truly the likely nominee?

DAVID GREGORY, FORMER HOST, "MEET THE PRESS": I think it's quite possible. He looks very strong across the board.

He has the potential to do extremely well in at least nine of these 11 states. And because it's all proportional, he has an ability to rack up delegate numbers even where he's not winning. And because of the rules that the RNC put into place, it could really hurt either Cruz or Rubio in other states.

If Trump is on top and either one of those other two don't get to 20 percent, they can't get to any delegates in some of these proportional states. That becomes important.

The other thing is, at the end of this night, how big is his lead? And how big it is will determine whether or not a guy like Rubio has any running room left. Even if he pulls off a big night on March 15 in those winner-take-all states, can he overcome the lead?

It's not just momentum that is at stake, although that's a big piece of it. It's raw delegate numbers that Trump has the ability to really rack up.

BALDWIN: Looking at you, talking about Donald Trump, listen, he could have an incredible night tonight. If you had to put your finger on one vulnerability of his, what would it be?

SAM CLOVIS, DONALD TRUMP NATIONAL CAMPAIGN CO-CHAIR: Right. Right. Yes.

Well, it's hard to come up with that, because I think that everybody has misread the electorate this year like no other time in history.

BALDWIN: How do you mean?

CLOVIS: Well, I just don't think that a lot of people have really taken a hard look. At least we have. We know who's coming to the rallies. We know who is turning out to vote.

We will likely have record turnout in every single one of these primaries and caucuses tonight. That will go already with the four that we have already had record turnout. Iowa generated 53 percent higher turnout in this caucus season than at any other time in our history.

So, those are things that I think are important. And when we bring in that many people and we start to see the coalitions that are out there and the number of people, and first-time voters, and all these other factors, I think it really gets to the point where the math starts to go against the other candidates.

BALDWIN: Sure.

CLOVIS: They just can't -- they can't come to that. And I think that's really been the issue. And I don't know whether that's a vulnerability or a positive for us. BALDWIN: That was a very diplomatic answer, by the way.

CLOVIS: It was. Thank you.

BALDWIN: No weakness whatsoever.

CLOVIS: Thank you. Thank you.

BALDWIN: What about Texas?

CLOVIS: Well, Texas is going to be a close-run thing.

I think -- but I do think that what's important here is what David brought up, is the proportionality. If we get 20 percent, over 20 percent in each of the congressional districts, we're going to pick up delegates there. If we win those congressional districts, we could win 13, 15, maybe 20 of those congressional districts.

May not win the popular vote, but we can win those districts. That gives us a chance to break even or even come up on top in the delegate count. And that's the way the math works.

BALDWIN: I want to revisit Texas, because I'm just fascinated by the symbolism that is the Lone Star State.

But to you, Donna Brazile, on the Democratic side, we talk about significance in margin of victory. It's extraordinarily significant on the Democratic side, proportional, especially margin of victory for Hillary Clinton when it comes to black voters.

DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Fifteen percent, that's our threshold, unlike the Republicans, which has a hybrid system from place to place, from congressional district to congressional district.

And in some places, you have to go back even tonight in order to get your precinct delegates. I'm familiar with their rules as well. But on the Democratic side, this is all about finding delegates in the 11 states and including Democrats abroad. As you well know, early this morning, New Zealand, there were 28 votes cast.

I believe Bernie Sanders got the bulk of them. So this is a day in which both candidates are not just trying to win states. They're trying to get delegates in some of these really voter-rich states, like Texas, 222, of course, Georgia, Virginia, and I can go on.

[15:10:00]

So, tonight, I think it's going to be a good night for both candidates since I'm neutral.

(LAUGHTER)

GREGORY: One of the things that you look for tonight, yes, Bernie Sanders does better in typically whiter, really progressive states, where you look at Vermont, you look at Massachusetts, perhaps Minnesota. But the significance of the African-American vote for Hillary Clinton

and for women and for younger voters, which is still a vulnerability for her...

BALDWIN: She did extraordinary in South Carolina.

GREGORY: Right, among at least two of the three. He's still doing well among younger voters. That's the Obama coalition from 2012.

And he turned them out in record numbers. She's going to need every bit of that this year, if she's up against Donald Trump, where she could be vulnerable among white men who are not likely to vote for her in large numbers anyway against a Republican.

She can be particularly vulnerable to him among Reagan Democrats if he's in fact the nominee. So she needs to turn out these numbers in big, big ways to really bring up that Obama coalition.

(CROSSTALK)

BRAZILE: And, look, the Obama coalition has been split. I mean, Bernie Sanders has been able to get the millennials, Hillary the minorities and the women.

I think tonight, when you look at the minority vote, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, and, look, I think the other parts of the country that we have to look at tonight, in addition to Minnesota, Oklahoma, Colorado, Hillary Clinton is also vying to win some delegates up in Massachusetts, where she went to college.

GREGORY: Why is Sanders doing so well in Oklahoma? Are those old polls or what -- I don't understand.

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

BRAZILE: Bernie Sanders is doing very well all across the country, better than expected. And I think the reason is, is that he's connecting with a lot of Democrats and independents who really feel the Bern.

BALDWIN: What about hypotheticals?

(LAUGHTER)

BALDWIN: Way to go, Donna Brazile. Way to go.

BRAZILE: I'm neutral.

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

GREGORY: Tried to you on the spot there. BALDWIN: In hypotheticals, I want everyone to sort of look at these

numbers. And let me put them up on the screen here. General election matchups shows in a race between Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton, it would lead to a virtual tie. Clinton would beat Donald Trump.

Are we surprised that she's losing or in a virtual tie with these Republicans?

GREGORY: Well, first of all, you have to remember, you look at Trump and Clinton right there, one of their big vulnerabilities, they both have extremely high negatives.

CLOVIS: Negatives, yes.

GREGORY: Now, he's able to mitigate that because it's such a large field. And this is why Rubio so desperately wants to go one on one with Trump. He might have a better opportunity to actually beat him.

She has those high negatives as well. If you're Marco Rubio, you are saying, look, I would do better against Hillary Clinton. And I think there's a lot of reasons for that, because he has fewer negatives.

BALDWIN: You're shaking your head.

CLOVIS: I want everybody to remind themselves of what day it is on the calendar. It's the 1st of March. And we went into May in 1980 with Ronald Reagan down 40 points to Jimmy Carter, and it was -- kind of turned out a little different on election night.

I think a lot of this has -- the fact that once we solidify the nomination, once it looks like we're inevitable, we will start that push, you will start to see the negatives go down, the positives will come up, and he will compete very favorably, if not dramatically, against Mrs. Clinton.

BRAZILE: I want to make one prediction. The Obama coalition will turn out for the Democratic nominee and not for Donald Trump.

BALDWIN: Yes.

GREGORY: Well, and probably in larger numbers.

One of the advantages I think Hillary Clinton has, if Trump is the nominee, there will be a real fear factor. We have seen the freak-out factor among the Republicans. Among Democrats, it's going to be high too.

And those numbers -- whether you trust Hillary, whether you like her or any of those things, you're going to turn out. If you care about the Supreme Court, you're going to turn out. If you're scared of Donald Trump and what he believes in, you're going to turn out as Democrats. She's going to rely on that.

(CROSSTALK)

CLOVIS: I want to go the other way, though. I will say -- I will argue it the other side.

And you're absolutely right, and you're -- I hope -- you know, I hope you're right, because what I would like to see is 70 percent turnout on this election.

BRAZILE: I agree.

(CROSSTALK)

CLOVIS: And it could cut the other way, because we will get the 10 million that didn't vote for Romney.

GREGORY: But you may also have a lot of Republicans who decide not to vote.

CLOVIS: That's just a fact. We had a lot in the last election that didn't vote.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Looking at you, Sam, what do you think left-wing surprise you the most?

CLOVIS: Tonight?

BALDWIN: Tonight. What will have you waking up tomorrow morning saying whoa?

CLOVIS: A hundred delegates out of Texas will surprise me tonight.

BALDWIN: A hundred delegates.

What about you, Donna?

BRAZILE: I want to see turnout higher across the board, but on the Republican side, there's no question, Texas will be the key factor for me.

BALDWIN: Texas.

David?

GREGORY: I just think underperformance by Trump on a delegate total, overperformance particularly by Rubio.

If Cruz can win Texas, that is really, really bad for Rubio, because that no reason for Cruz to get out if he can pull that off. Every day that this is a big field, the better for Donald Trump, and Rubio's chances really go down and down.

BALDWIN: Cruz said earlier if anyone doesn't win a single state, Marco Rubio, get out.

GREGORY: Yes.

BRAZILE: Can we talk about Kasich and Carson? I want to be totally neutral.

BALDWIN: Who?

BRAZILE: Kasich is trying to rack up some delegates up in Vermont today.

BALDWIN: You think he will hang in there through Ohio?

BRAZILE: Yes. And I haven't heard from Dr. Carson. We may have to page him.

(LAUGHTER)

CLOVIS: I do think that, because of the rules, because of the 20 percent rule, we're going to see a lot of dry holes out there tonight.

BALDWIN: Which we're going to get into all the weeds, political Super Bowl. We're going there.

You're sticking around.

Donna and Sam, thank you so much.

(CROSSTALK)

CLOVIS: Thanks, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Thank you.

Coming up next: Marco Rubio moments ago comparing Donald Trump to Jesse Ventura, asking voters if they really want to elect another celebrity, talking about embarrassments and not exactly being a class act. We will play that.

Plus, how Speaker Paul Ryan called out Donald Trump earlier. And just a short time ago, the Senate's top Republican also calling out his own party's front-runner. This is very, very significant stuff. We have those details ahead.

[15:15:12]

And the government releasing a treasure trove of never-before-seen documents from the Osama bin Laden raid some years ago in Pakistan, including a handwritten letter about America and his will. What do they reveal? That's ahead.

You're watching CNN's special live coverage on this Super Tuesday.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Welcome back. You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

When you look at the Super Tuesday map, you see that today is all about the numbers, finding out which candidate will ultimately get a certain number of delegates. And the way that the system works for Republicans is actually brand- new. After the long, drawn-out, nasty primary battle in 2012, the RNC made notable efforts to expedite the process so that a front-runner would be decided sooner.

But now those changes are helping Donald Trump, much to the dismay of his rivals and establishment Republicans.

Back with me, David Gregory, former moderator of "Meet the Press," and also joining us now, Genevieve Wood, former spokeswoman for the RNC, the Republican National Committee, and now a senior contributor to The Daily Signal.

[15:20:05]

So, great to have you both here, to you back.

Explain for all of us how, with the changes since 2016 with the delegates, how this really is a boost to Trump.

GREGORY: Well, the intention was to help the nominee, the front- running nominee, wrap up the nomination sooner.

BALDWIN: Quicker.

GREGORY: Yes.

And so what they did is, in a lot of proportional states, they said, well, you have to hit a certain threshold in a congressional district, say, in Texas. You have to get to 20 percent.

BALDWIN: Twenty percent.

GREGORY: And if you don't, you don't get any delegates.

BALDWIN: And the delegates go to the other candidates.

GREGORY: Right.

And so what it does is allow a squeeze to happen where Trump would get more delegates, can get to the victory line sooner. This was done to really help Mitt Romney, who, you know, because Mitt Romney went through a longer run to the nomination, the party wanted to make it a little better for the nominee.

In this case, the party's freaking out because they're not as interested in Trump being the nominee. They're realizing that the people they might prefer are going to have a harder time getting to the finish line.

BALDWIN: On the freaking-out notion, Genevieve, to you. As a former spokesperson for the RNC, can you sort of measure out the freak-out factor at the moment with the RNC and the rules changes?

(LAUGHTER)

GENEVIEVE WOOD, THE DAILY SIGNAL: Yes.

Well, it depends on who you talk to and at what time of day and so forth. But, look, Brooke, I think -- let's forget the political -- the presidential candidates for a moment, critiquing them. And I would say we ought to critique the Republican Party and its leaders right here.

BALDWIN: How?

WOOD: They have focused on -- well, they focused on politics and strategy and how do we get somebody in without having to go through a tough primary, as opposed to focusing on a bold policy agenda that people could get excited about.

Look, voters in 2014 gave Republicans control of Congress. But instead of really painting a contrast of here's what a Republican idea machine would look like vs. a liberal machine, the Obama administration, they have tried to play it safe and just say wait until the next election.

And ,frankly, the base was fed up with that. And, look, in a year also that cronyism and outside Washington became a big theme, they could have focused on that, but they didn't.

BALDWIN: Yes.

WOOD: And they played with electoral maps and primary dates. And now they're not getting exactly what they expected.

BALDWIN: That was then, this is now, so let's say with present day.

And, David, what about -- we fixate so much on Donald Trump, because, clearly, the people who are speaking, he's doing extraordinarily well. He could have a huge night tonight. But as far as Rubio and Cruz, we were talking in commercial break because I'm so wondering about how Texas goes. This is Cruz's home turf. Marco Rubio may not win a single state tonight.

GREGORY: Right.

BALDWIN: How could this shake out for both of them? How long do they hang in there?

GREGORY: First, let me just say, I think Genevieve makes a really important point, which is so many of these exit polls show us the betrayal that Republican primary or caucus voters feel with Republicans.

They really feel that the Republican Party has let them down. I think about, you know, the Tea Party movement starts not with Barack Obama. It starts with President George W. Bush bailing out the banks.

(CROSSTALK)

GREGORY: That's what really brings on the Tea Party sentiment issues. So, she's right. I disagree that they, all of a sudden, the process has been flush with a campaign of ideas. I don't think that is necessarily what Trump represents. I think he represents more of a feeling of conservatism and an attitude which ha gotten a lot of traction.

But, look, Texas is important, as you talked about, because, if you're Cruz, you have got to win your home state to get some delegates and to show that you can go toe-to-toe with Trump again and win.

BALDWIN: Yes.

GREGORY: That's his calling card: I can beat Donald Trump in a contest.

And then, again, for Rubio, it's about, you know, could he play, you know, in Minnesota? Could he win some delegates? His team is saying, look we're just looking for delegates tonight. We're looking for out- and-out wins.

BALDWIN: Right.

GREGORY: Who knows how that will go.

He's got to win somewhere at some point, and certainly in his home state of Florida by March 15.

BALDWIN: What about, Genevieve, on Texas?

WOOD: Yes.

BALDWIN: You know, I made this point. This is -- bleeds a deep red. This is the home of George W. Bush and Rick Perry and Ted Cruz, all of whom Trump has ripped apart on this campaign.

And I'm just curious, you know, where the state of the Republican Party will be if Trump wins.

WOOD: Well, I think it's a good -- I'm a native Texan. Let me be clear.

BALDWIN: OK, perfect.

WOOD: My parents are working the polls there today.

And what I'm hearing both from there, but also from Dallas and other places, is turnout is exceptionally high for a primary even in Texas. I think most people there are expecting Cruz to pull this out, and to pull it out by bigger numbers than one or two points.

But a high turnout in other places has meant good things for Donald Trump as well. So, we're just going to have to see. A lot of these states, as I think other people probably made mention of, not near as many polls have been done in these individual states as we saw out of Iowa, New Hampshire. So I think we may have a few more surprises than we might have expected. But it's going to be a very close call. And I agree. Look, tonight

is important. If Trump runs away with all of this, it's going to get increasingly tougher for others to be able to get ahead.

BALDWIN: Thanks to our Texan, Genevieve Wood, and to David Gregory. Thank you both, so, so much.

[15:25:02]

GREGORY: Thanks.

WOOD: Thank you.

BALDWIN: Coming up next: Marco Rubio warning crowds in Minnesota today about the risk of electing who he called a celebrity candidate, comparing Donald Trump to a former wrestler-turned-governor.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Jesse Ventura was an embarrassment. No, no, let me rephrase that. Jesse Ventura is an embarrassment.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Just about the bottom of the hour. You're watching CNN.

Marco Rubio needs a win badly. Only four states have voted so far, and he still has exactly zero wins. He is hoping that changes, and he can stay in the race.

Rubio hit Minnesota after lunch today, going hard after Donald Trump, who he linked to former Minnesota Governor.