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High Stakes for Hillary Clinton; NASA Astronaut Captain Scott Kelly Closing in on One Full Year in Space. Aired 3:30-4p ET

Aired February 11, 2016 - 15:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[15:30:00] SONNY HOSTIN, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: And I really wonder how far up this goes, because what you want to do is a federal prosecutor and here you have eight federal indictments coming out of the U.S. attorney's office, you want the biggest person. You want the big fish. So I suspect what we'll see is the very beginning of this investigation and people will start pointing fingers. So how far up did this go, is the very question I have.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN HOST: Sonny Hostin, thank you very much.

HOSTIN: You bet.

BALDWIN: Pamela Brown, of course, thank you as well.

Meantime, all eyes on Milwaukee. The Democrats facing off tonight for the first time since Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in that New Hampshire primary earlier this week. My next guest says Hillary needs to fire Hillary. What does that mean? He will explain that for us.

Also ahead is a brokered Republican convention inevitable? A former governor has crunched the numbers for us. He will join us live to explain how there's no way anyone, not even Donald Trump, can outright win the nomination.

Absolutely fascinating stuff. You're watching CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:35:29] BALDWIN: You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

High stakes for Hillary Clinton tonight. 9:00 p.m. eastern, she will be debating Bernie Sanders on PBS. You can watch it here on CNN. The presidential Democratic debate continuing at 9:00. It will be the first time the two Democrats go head to head after Sanders pulverized Clinton's front-runner status with his win by 22 points in the New Hampshire primary earlier this week.

Now, that loss has put Clinton's campaign under a microscope of sorts with some criticizing that it is the big picture here that Hillary Clinton is missing. Quoting one columnist, this is what he writes. Quote "Hillary, truth be told, just isn't a gifted politician. And while Sanders focus is relentlessly on the big themes that preoccupy voters, Clinton's campaign feels like it's all about her, her resume, her 25 years of suffering through the indignities of public service. Let me bring in Anita Dunn, former White House communications

director, former Obama campaign adviser, and Jonathan Allen, political columnist at "Roll Call." So great to have both of you. Thank you so much.

And Jonathan, let me just begin with your words, you know, you write in "Roll Call," Hillary should fire Hillary. To me it echoes, you know, the tweet from David Axelrod the other night that she and her husband are the worst problem, you know, struggling with developing basic campaign messaging. How is that when they have been in the public eye for decades? Can you answer that?

JONATHAN ALLEN, POLITICAL COLUMNIST, ROLL CALL: Well, first of all, I think that's part of the problem. They are running a campaign in a lot of ways in particular the messaging for an old Democratic Party for Democratic Party that is very much cleaved into various constituencies. Women voters, African-American voters, the Hispanic voters and they talk to people like that. And I think the younger generation is much more listening to a message like Bernie Sanders where he says he wants to bring everyone together under the sort of big bold themes he is talking about.

Look, the messaging problem for Hillary Clinton is one that starts at the top. And the way we know this, David Axelrod pointed out in a tweet. The way that we know this is the 2008 campaign suffered from the same message problem as the 2016 campaign does.

BALDWIN: And Anita, you know about the messaging in the 2008 campaign. On the other side of the track, so to speak. You know, Jonathan points out, that it is together, you know, you go to Bernie Sanders rally, you watch this video they put out. You know, the theme is together or believe. He says a lot of "we" not a lot of Is. You know, back in 2008, it was a lot of "we" with Barack Obama. Is that part of the issue here with Hillary Clinton?

ANITA DUNN, FORMER WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: You know, it is interesting, Brooke, because both campaigns and both candidates have huge jobs to do moving forward. And they're very different. So for Hillary Clinton, it is taking her biography and making it a compelling reason to trust her when she says that she is going to do these things that she has plans for and that she is absolutely committed to doing.

For Bernie Sanders, whose campaign has been primarily around a cause so far, it's actually filling in his biography for voters so it gives credibility to the idea that indeed he will do the things he says he will do. I think both campaigns, both candidates, as they go into tonight, have huge challenges. I think that there has been a lot of attention to Hillary Clinton's challenges. But I, as one who has been on the side of insurgent candidates in the past, tells you Bernie Sanders has some big challenges too.

BALDWIN: Well, what do you think his number one challenge is going into this debate tonight, Anita?

DUNN: You know, whereas I think Vermont was a huge advantage for him and New Hampshire, that his need to be able to message to a broader group of voters than northeastern Democrats and Iowa Democrats is part of that challenge. But I also think that he is going to be challenged by Hillary Clinton and by more scrutiny from the press to really prove that he is serious and that he can get these things done. I think the people love his ideas and the next question is going to be how. And I think his answer to how will be very important for him.

BALDWIN: What about Hillary Clinton, Jonathan, you know, Anita mentions her story, she has a compelling story. There's no lack there. So she has this story. It is I think it is just, you know, we hear this word authenticity so much in politics. How does she relay that tonight? We are also hearing from the campaign it will be more aggressive. But then it's like this teeter totter. It's like this delicate dance she has to do without, you know, alienating viewers and voters.

[15:40:02] ALLEN: Well, if she says one thing on Monday and says a different thing on Wednesday or the Thursday night debate. That becomes problematic in terms of the credibility factor. So I think she has to be careful about how she moves her messaging.

I think one of the things that is going to be important to her going forward is how to win some of these millennial voters that she is losing by such a large margin to Bernie Sanders. How to appeal to them. And I think that starts with being a little bit more natural up there. She's extremely good at debating. Extremely well prepared. And yet at the same time, that can come off as a little over prepared or little path (ph).

I think also, she has got to talk about the future. She talks a lot about the resume. Look, she did help expand the children's health insurance program. So when she talks about trying to expand the insurance to people and expand how to care to people, there is a record of that. But I think what she is going to get more to, is that 30,000 foot view of where she wants to take the country and let those details of her background fill that in. Like Bernie Sanders, if you are here on the future, on the vision part, knowing that your background and your resume is stronger than his is.

BALDWIN: So I just got an interesting piece of news in my ear. This is from reporting from our political correspondent Manu Raju that apparently now, Anita, I'm going to throw this to you, the senate majority leader, Harry Reid, has now officially come forward and said in this Democratic race it truly could go to a contested convention. Is that possible?

DUNN: Well, of course it's possible, especially in the Democratic primary because we don't have winner take all primaries. We have proportional delegate selection in all our caucuses and primaries and so it could go that way. Don't forget there's a huge chunk of delegates who are super delegates, who aren't elect, and they can always make a significant difference as well.

Here's the thing, though, these are contests. They are not coronations. I think a lot of people were very unrealistic in thinking this was going to be over after one or two contests. There's a significant contest in the Democratic Party. Both candidates share a great deal in terms of values and where they want this country to go.

The contest is between who's the better of them to get it there. And I think compared to what's going on in the Republican Party, the Democratic contest is actually a healthy one for a party and for the country. I also think that, you know, people always talk about brokered conventions or going all the way to the convention. It is where that that happens.

BALDWIN: I agree with you, there is also - there is definitely talk, but at the same time, Jonathan, finally to you, the fact we are truly talking about the potential for that on both sides, this election year, I don't mow if it says more about the candidates or about the American, you know, voting populous and how we feel about politics, what do you think?

ALLEN: I think it says a lot about the American voter right now. That they're dissatisfied on both sides with what's going on in Washington for very different reasons. Republican voters absolutely want to see a smaller government. They want to get rid of the establishment they think is propping up larger government, more regulations, more taxes, more spending.

And in the Democratic side, there seems to be a feeling that the establishment is getting under way of the larger government, more services for the public greater equality in terms of income and wealth. So there are a lot of similar feelings I think out there in the country about wanting to get rid of the establishment but very different views on what the ends are.

BALDWIN: Not a dull moment for months to come.

Jonathan Allen and Anita Dunn, I really appreciate both of you.

ALLEN: Thank care.

DUNN: Thank you for having us.

BALDWIN: Definitely, thank you.

And definitely watch tonight because CNN will be simulcasting the CBS News hour Democratic presidential debate live from Milwaukee, 9:00 p.m. eastern. You can watch it here on CNN or you can also find it on your local PBS station.

You know, speaking of contested or brokered conventions, one former governor says it is inevitable on the Republican side. He has done the math. Wait until you hear this.

Plus, his year in space. Astronaut Scott Kelly getting ready to finish this monumental mission. Sanjay Gupta actually got to talk to Kelly live from the international space station. We will talk to Sanjay coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [15:48:11] BALDWIN: So we just reported that senate minority leader Harry Reid says it is absolutely possible that the Democrats will have a contested convention. My next guest says on the flip side for Republicans, a brokered convention is inevitable. He says he has done the math, he has crunched the numbers and no one can break away.

He is Michael Leavitt. He was a top advisor to Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign, a former governor there in Utah. He is live in South Lake City.

And Sir, I hear it's your birthday as well, so happy birthday first and foremost.

MICHAEL LEAVITT, TOP ADVISOR TO ROMNEY'S 2012 CAMPAIGN: Thank you, Brooke.

BALDWIN: You got it.

Before we discuss this battle ahead, I know you have been crunching numbers on these all-important delegates. And so, from what I have read you say you don't think the path to a majority is in the bag for Donald Trump. Tell me why.

LEAVITT: Well, first, I don't think it's inevitable, but I think it is highly probable that, well, the circumstances are just such that it's going to be very difficult for any candidate to get 1237 delegates given the way things lay out. In 2012 you'll remember that Governor Romney was until actually April before he was able to get the certainty of being the presumed nominee. That was because there were candidates who were able to stay in the race a long time, primarily because of super PAC money. And we have a situation here where you have as many as four or five candidates who have the viable -- have the likelihood of being viable all the way to the end.

BALDWIN: Do you think that there is any sort of clear path forward for any of these among, let's say, the number twos, the Kasich, Bush, Rubio, Cruz?

LEAVITT: Well, let me say that for any candidate, whether it's Donald Trump or another candidate, between now and the end, they have to get on average somewhere between 41 percent and 45 percent of the popular vote. And no candidate, including Trump, has been able to demonstrate that kind of strength.

In other races, people achieve that by a combination of their own momentum and suffocating the other candidates from their ability to be viable. And it's unlikely in my view that that will occur. By the way, I might add, as you crunch the numbers what becomes evident is that a candidate also has to win every winner-take-all state. So ask you have to ask the question, can Donald Trump win at least 41 percent and win all of the winner-take-all states. And that's the basis of a bit of skepticism on my part.

[15:50:47] BALDWIN: You know, just talking to my last two guests in the NEWSROOM, Harry Reid on the potential for a brokered convention for the Dems, and, you know, Anita was saying, listen. This is what everyone talks about every election cycle, the threat, the possibility of a brokered convention, how real do you think it is for Republican, truly truly?

LEAVITT: Well, look, it would clearly be unprecedented in the modern era, but I would argue that there are a couple of factors that have not existed. The super PAC and the ability for a candidate to last a long time or live off the land, that's one.

BALDWIN: The citizens united decision, yes.

LEAVITT: The second is the number of candidates. And if you're a candidate in this race and you can see that staying in the race could keep you alive in the convention where anything could happen, you're not going to be as likely to jump out of the race. You are going to continue. And I think economic supporters will see that as well.

So these are just circumstances. We don't know what's going to occur. But they're very unique circumstances and I think they add up. You have to also, I think, add into this equation the fact that Trump polarizes within the party. That there are people who simply don't want him to be the nominee. And there could be those who would continue to see this as an opportunity to stop him as well as to those who will want to support him. So very unique situation. Very possible in my mind that we could see a candidate not have the delegate votes necessary to get a first ballot nomination.

BALDWIN: Such an important crucial piece of the nomination, the delegate count.

Michael Leavitt, governor, thank you so much.

LEAVITT: My pleasure.

BALDWIN: Straight ahead, the end is in sight. Astronaut Scott Kelly approaching the completion of his year in space. He tells Sanjay Gupta about his adventure far above earth.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:56:53] BALDWIN: Captain's log day 321 in space and not the fictional captain kirk of star trek fame. No, no, we're talking about real life. NASA astronaut captain Scott Kelly, he is closing in on his one full year in space, all of it spent right there at the ISS, the International Space Station.

CNN's chief medical correspondent, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, talked to him just a short time ago and asked him how's it going?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CAPT. SCOTT KELLY, NASA ASTRONAUT: A year now seems longer than I thought it would be. So I definitely have an appreciation for, you know, certain things that freedom and, you know, being on earth provide, but you know, certainly, you know, being confined for this period of time is not something that I think people would -- it's different when you're in space and doing something that you think is important, but I definitely think I would, you know, kind of relish my freedom more after this experience maybe than I did before.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Too cool. Sanjay Gupta joins me now. You know, I saw him the other day --

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: It is too cool.

BALDWIN: Part of the football, the super bowl pregame show and he was tossing the football, you know, toward the camera. I mean it's awesome just what he's done. I can't believe it's almost been a year. What else did you talk about?

GUPTA: We talked about so many things and it is so cool. You know, it was interesting, he was giving a response -- we started talking about gravitational waves. You heard about this news today, Brooke. Nobody knows what it means. I think at least most people don't know what it means. He would know what it means, right, because he is a guy that actually studies these theories. That was a theory, one of Einstein's theories and we talked about space time continuum, because as you know, you know Brooke, because we talked about this, he is aging a little more slowly as he is orbiting the earth as compared to his twin brother, Mark, who is here on the surface of the of the earth. Just a fascinating sort of thing. That's what this twin study is about, looking at how his body changes for that period of time.

We talked about Mars. You know, it would take about nine months or longer to get to Mars. He is been up there 11 months. So if he was going to Mars, he would be just starting a mission as oppose to ending a mission. You know, that was really interesting.

We talked a lot about his life. I asked him to imagine looking at the earth, that spectacular view that he has and imagine the earth as a human body and how did it look, did it look healthy or did it look sick? Listen to what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: When you look at the atmosphere, I wouldn't say it looks -- the thin veil of the atmosphere on limb of the earth I wouldn't say that it looks unhealthy, but it definitely looks very, very fragile. And you know, just kind of like this thin film. So it looks like something we definitely need to take care of.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GUPTA: I just think that's very interesting. No one has that vantage point, Brooke. And I'm going to talk to him again in a few days and again when he gets back to earth. It's just a fascinating story.

BALDWIN: I love it. You have the ISS on the speed dial. Of course you do, Sanjay Gupta. Of course, you do. I love it. Thank you so much. Please wish him well from all of us here on earth. We'll talk again I'm sure.

And thank you all for watching. I'm Brooke Baldwin. "The LEAD with Jake Tapper" starts right now.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Thanks, Brooke.

Countdown to a critical Democratic debate right here on CNN.

"The LEAD" stars right now.