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LEGAL VIEW WITH ASHLEIGH BANFIELD

FBI Terror Investigation; New Hampshire Primary Results; Candidates Campaign in South Carolina; How Primaries Work. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired February 10, 2016 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[12:30:] PAMELA BROWN, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: -- that all of these data is encrypted. And the FBI is saying that information could perhaps shed light on whether or not this couple was talking to terrorists overseas, whether they were planning additional attacks and what their movements were around the time of the terrorist attack. We know they've come out and said 18 minutes they haven't been able to piece together 18 minutes in what they were doing in that time so they say this could help them.

However, Ashleigh, even though they haven't been able to exploit one phone, we do know they have been able to exploit other phones because there were two that they retrieved, at least two. So perhaps that is helping them piece together what they need to know.

ASHLEIGH BANFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: All right, Pamela Brown, thank you for that, do appreciate it.

Coming up next, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump were expected to win big in New Hampshire. But what about that whole John Kasich thing? Was his strong second place finish a warning shot to the rest of Republicans? And is everybody scrambling now to change up ground games in South Carolina, Nevada, and beyond?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:35:19] He said himself he was headed home if he didn't do well in New Hampshire, and today Ohio Governor John Kasich is not heading to Ohio.

A hundred plus town halls over the past several months earned Governor Kasich a respectable second place finish in yesterday's first in the nation GOP primary. After which Governor Kasich reflected with my colleague, Sara Murray.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. JOHN KASICH (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know I was very calm about it. I just sort of felt we were going to be in second place. I heard earlier that, you know, there was some word that we were going to be there. And then, you know, when I traveled around to the polling places it was pretty clear I was running into everybody and they were like, yeah, we really like you, and all that stuff. So, you know, I'm gratified by it for sure, I think it's fantastic, but I wouldn't say I was shocked by it. SARAH MURRAY: Now, the Bush campaign is already previewing the attacks

they're going to use against you in South Carolina, saying you're going to weaken the military.

KASICH: I'm going to weaken the military?

MURRAY: Are you prepared for the incoming fire that's going to come your way now that you have landed a second-place finish?

KASICH: Well, I think they've spent about $120 million so far and I don't know what somebody said as much as $50 million in New Hampshire. They ought to get this figured out at some point. I mean, they've spent so much money, I don't know who's advising them. But I mean, I think, that's kind of silly that I'm weakening the military? I don't even understand what you're talking about.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: Well, there's another former governor, Jeb Bush, who says today he's living the dream after a fourth place finish in New Hampshire's Republican primary.

Already Governor Bush is on the ground and campaigning in South Carolina and he told "New Day's" Alisyn Camerota that while Donald Trump won New Hampshire, he did not get the support of most of the Republican voters.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEB BUSH, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDITATE: Remember, he didn't get -- he got 70 percent, you know, he got 30 percent of the voters, this is a great win and I commend him for it, So, there are, there's two-thirds of Republican voters that didn't support him. And a lot of people won't support him because he insults people, he disparages people, he divides people.

I say, look, I understand why you're angry, here the solution. The solution is let's forge consensus on how we tax, how we regulate, let's help carry civil service reforms so that public employees in Washington aren't our masters, but there to serve us. Let's empower back to the states it's been (ph) decade..

Let's repeal ObamaCare. I have an agenda that will, you know, the anecdote to the angst that people feel. So that's my case. Trump's the master at capturing people's angst. And he has it all for the compelling alternative to where are right now. He does this all fix sold that up, you know, it will be fine, it will be huge, or whatever. But there's nothing tangible that will suggests he has the skills to actually do what he says.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: Governor Jeb Bush talking with Alisyn Camerota on "News Day" after his fourth place finish.

With me now from Bluffton, South Carolina is CNN's Victor Blackwell. Victor, listen, this guy has been campaigning with an exclamation

point after his first name but not the last name Bush. And now he's bringing out the big guns, Barbara Bush was out last week, and George W. is coming out this week.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR, NEW DAY WEEKEND: Yeah, that's because the Bushes have historically gone well here in South Carolina. Handing wins to the H.W. Bush -- George H W Bush back in 1988, 1992. George W. Bush in 2000, and we know that George W Bush, as you said, will be on the campaign trail for his brother over the next ten days leading up to the South Carolina primary.

Now, this rally in Bluffton, the first of three events for Governor Bush today. When Governor Bush mentioned his brothers actions and decisions after 9/11 there were cheers and applause here from these attendees of 200 people at this rally.

This is the first time we're seeing George W.Bush. We're' going to play you something for you here now. He's recording an ad from the campaign. We've seen George W. Bush in a television ad for the Right to Rise Super PAC which supports Governor. Bush.

But we're hearing from the governor touting his brother's experience. We're hearing the readiness that George W. Bush says that Governor Bush has for the position of commander-in-chief.

Listen to a portion of this new ad out from the Bush campaign featuring former president George W.Bush.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, FORMER: This is President George W. Bush. We live in troubled times with the military deployed around the world.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[12:40:06] We need a strong leader with experience, ideas, and resolve. There's no doubt in my mind that Jeb Bush will be a great commander-in-chief for our military. Jeb has dealt with crises as the Governor of Florida and he did so with resolve, steadiness, and calmness necessary in a good leader.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: But Victor, it's interesting to hear that but at the same time, I keep wondering what the polling says in South Carolina about Jeb Bush?

BLACKWELL: Fourth place here according to the latest NBC /Wall Street Journal poll. It has him at nine percent behind Marco Rubio.

Now, let's add this caveat that this is a January poll, the most recent polling here this is pre-New Hampshire, this pre- the New Hampshire debate so of course those numbers will shuffle. The campaign says after that New Hampshire debate what we saw -- they saw from Marco Rubio was that he doesn't have the readiness to be commander-in- chief and they believe John Kasich who finished second in New Hampshire just doesn't have the infrastructure or financial strength in the state to compete.

BANFIELD: Well, that's going to be a fascinating race to watch. Thank you, Victor Blackwell, good to see you. Appreciate it.

BLACKWELL: Sure, like wise.

BANFIELD: The two Democratic candidates and that whole larger Republican group all turning to the state where Victor was just broadcasting live, South Carolina. And they're also looking ahead to Nevada, too.

But in the meantime, I'm going to talk to a South Carolina state lawmaker who has said he made up his mind and it's clear as to why. I'm going to ask him about it. And then ask about trickier issues with regard to that. That's next.

[12:45:25] New Hampshire was yesterday and the next two states the presidential hopefuls will fight over are Nevada, out west and South Carolina, of course, down south.

And joining me from Columbia, South Carolina, is State Senator Marlon Kimpson. Thank you so much Senator. Last night you made it official, you are a Hillary guy. I want to ask you tough questions about what Hillary Clinton can expect as she comes to your state.

Because there is this prevailing wisdom out that there that she's got the Black vote locked in and that's a very, very big lock. Clinton's 74 percent to Sanders '17, that's huge. But there's another wisdom out there that that she's losing a Black progressive grass-roots movement that is against the Black establishment. What do you know about that?

STATE SEN. MARLON KIMPSON, D-SOUTH CAROLINA: I can tell you that, Secretary Clinton is no stranger is to South Carolina. And if the evidence that she experienced back in 2008 sent any kind of message, she knows not to take anyone's vote for granted.

What I see on the ground just for you people that don't live here in South Carolina, is that she is working extremely hard canvassing the neighborhoods the churches, barbershop barber shops, the beauty salons, the institutions, The gay and lesbian community.

She is working with a diverse message and her message is striking a chord. So, I don't anything about this business of her taking anything for granted? I witness differently.

BANFIELD: So, and tell me a little bit about the very prominence Black community leaders who have come out in favor of Bernie Sanders, who've Ben jealous, the former head of the NWCP(ph) with that, Michelle Alexander, prominent author. Al Sharpton was meeting with Bernie Sanders just a couple hours ago in New York. We don't know what will come out of that.

Cornel West, prominent activist and professor at Princeton, also supporting Bernie Sanders. Did these worry you that there is such a movement of afoot in favor of Bernie and not in favor of choice, Hillary Clinton?

KIMPSON: Well, no, we are not a monolithic society. We have independent thoughts and independent views. In fact, I hosted a town hall meeting with Senator Sanders myself. So the fact people are meeting with him doesn't lead me to draw any conclusions.

Listen, the bottom line is Secretary Clinton has been here. We are familiar with her, she has a 40-year track record of working for progressive issues in the African-American community and as this race comes to South Carolina, we're going to be asking tough questions of both candidates.

I believe that secretary Clinton is the better poised to win South Carolina. She has been with us in the past and in my senate district -- I hope we talk about this in a moment -- but two of the most historic tragedies occurred across in these nation and she was with us through both of those.

BANFIELD: State Senator Marlon Kimpson, it's great of you to take the time to talk to with us today. And I hope we get, to talk to you as we get closer to the vote in your state.

KIMPSON: Well, I'm looking for the opportunity to talk more.

BANFIELD: Thank you, sir, nice to see you.

So now that primary season is here we can finally vote directly for the candidate that we support, right? Turns out not exactly, a little civics lesson, in case you didn't know it, you're actually voting for the delegates. The delegates are ones that head to the convention to pick the nominee. How can you be sure that they will actually back your candidate? Actually, you can't. We'll explain why next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:53:34] BANFIELD: When a lot of voters cast their ballots in an election primary, many of them may not realize they're actually voting for delegates. And it's the delegates who go forward and cast their votes at their party's convention, that's where things can sometimes be tricky, can take a turn.

With me from Washington to break down how the actual delegate process works is CNN's Tom Foreman who is magic with these kinds of things. What is it exactly that I don't get, Tom? I just assumed that you vote for your candidate, right? And then it get tabulated and off they go, not so.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, this is like the overtime rules for NFL football right now. They seem straightforward but it's confusing. No, that's not what happens. State by state by state each party may have slightly different rules. So in some cases you may get a purely proportional vote where if 20 percent of the voters support this person they get 20 percent of the delegates.

But then other states have more at-large delegates, for example, who may be a bonus that are tacked on to the winning candidates' number of delegates and there are all sorts of per mutations of the Math when you end up with half delegates basically where the Math doesn't work out properly.

On top of that, if you look at the results here, for the Republicans, you can see how this breaks down. You can see why this is so critical because this is where they stand right now. Trump has 17 delegates to date, Cruz has 10, Marco Rubio, seven. And look how many they need to win, more than 1200, more than 1200 to win.

So you would think, well, it's a long ways away. But once you start doing all these Math and breaking it down, you can see how they move closer.

[12:55:09] And on the Democratic side, just as confusing, look at the numbers there, needed to win, whoa, look at this, Hillary Clinton 431, Bernie Sanders 52. How that possible? They've had two races and she won one barely and he won the one decisively.

Well, that's because she has these super delegates. Super delegates are elected officials like governors, members of congress who also get a say and they can weigh in. So she had a lead when she began. Important to note, though, in the big rules here, Ashleigh, that also is a bit up for grabs because the super delegates are in her favor right now but trust me if Bernie Sanders starts sweeping a lot of states and they get towards the convention, the party -- even though it's a good indication of how much the establishment of the party backs her, that she has the establishment support, will not stay if they gets to the convention because the party doesn't want to be position of saying, "well all our voters wanted this guy, but we're pushing it the other way.

BANFIELD: Are you saying this is fair weather?

FOREMAN: Yeah. Can you imagine?

FOREMAN: Yeah, the bottom line is its really complicated Math, ultimately as you work to through the whole process but in the end it's designed to echo what the public wants.

So when you hit something like the beginning of March we'll have a ton of states come in with hundreds of delegates available. If you look at map, you'll see that it's the same for the Democrats and Republicans. They start moving more toward the winner take all contest not these proportional ones and then you'll start seeing big numbers of delegates being rolled out and you'll have a much clearer idea of who can bring home the numbers at convention time.

And yeah, in the end it's supposed to be fair. Along the way the way there'll be a lot of things that will make people scratch their heads and say "really? Is that how they worked out?"

BANFIELD: I like how you said "designed" with about four syllables.

FOREMAN: Yeah.

BANFIELD: Thank you for that. Tom Foreman, always good to have you. Thank you.

I want to turn to senior political analyst David Gergen. That's what my question is to you.

OK, so here's what I don't understand, a lot of candidates right now maybe hotchpotching ahead and thinking about Nevada and Michigan and thinking about Ohio ...

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Sure.

BANFIELD: ... and really trying to focus as well on South Carolina. There is a strategy and it's not just a number game right off the bat do they have to curry favor at some point with these Super delegates. Do they have to do things that none of us understand at this time?

GERGEN: They don't spend a lot of time with super delegates right now.

BANFIELD: They don't.

GERGEN: No, but the super delegates are actually are, I think, an important addition to the way we choose presidents. And that is they give fears. People who know the candidates reasonably well, have known them behind closed doors and evaluate them. They have a voice in the process as in addition to primary voters. They -- the super delegates in the Democratic side make up about 400 out of 2400 delegates there. So, it's a big, it's a big vote. And consist of all the vote.

BANFIELD: And not everything is Hillary Clinton's column right now. Let me ask you about something as simple as Kasich.

GERGEN: Yeah, sure.

BANFIELD: For a lot of people they're thinking now I think I recognize that name, I think he's the governor of Ohio, but I wasn't sure that he as in the winning category. Well, last night he proved in New Hampshire he came in second, did very, very well. Most people would say it's a one off but there's a path forward for a guy like Kasich. How that so?

GERGEN: Well, he's is has been a governor of a big state and more importantly he's been a very good governor of a big state of Ohio and that he's ...

BANFIELD: OK, let's just take Ohio is in his camp. Let's just give him that. That's a winner take all, he gets a lot of delegates out of Ohio. Don't you have to have New York and California

GERGEN: Oh, absolutely.

BANFIELD: And, oh, yeah, Michigan. I mean these huge states. Could this guy pull those off?

GERGEN: He could, he could. He hasn't yet emerged as the clear alternative to Donald Trump, Ted Cruz is still in there. Jeb Bush wants to say in this, so forth and so on. And we've still kind a gaggle of people fighting for this. But if he emerges he does have a clear record of executive success as

well as serving in Washington and knows the ropes there. His personality, many think, doesn't fit television so well but he's a good guy. Everybody knows that.

BANFIELD: Can I ask you this? I only have about 30 seconds left. How many of these campaigns on both sides today are rejigging their ground games in all the states coming up?

GERGEN: You can guarantee John Kasich. All of them are turning full attention to this because the delegate count, as important as it is, already it's momentum. Breaking the walls open.

BANFIELD: The ground game.

GERGEN: Yeah, the ground game, but, essentially winning a whole set of states, that's what Hillary now hopes to do after these two stumbles early on. She willing helps to break this thing open here in March and she may do that.

BANFIELD: And she would say that whole Iowa thing was not a stumble, it was a win.

GERGEN: Well assured, I know that, still.

BANFIELD: It was a squeaker. David Gergen, thanks you, always (inaudible) appreciate it.

GERGEN: Thank you so much. OK.

BANFIELD: Great wisdom from the guy who's been through it.

[13:00:04] Thank you so much for watching. I'm going to pass it off to another guy with a lot of wisdom, it's Wolf Blitzer. And he starts right now.