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LEGAL VIEW WITH ASHLEIGH BANFIELD

Primary Voting Day In New Hampshire; 23 Republican Delegates At Stake In New Hampshire Today; New Hampshire's Secretary of State Predicts Record Turnout. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired February 9, 2016 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[12:30:02] RON BROWNSTEIN EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, NATIONAL JOURNAL: There's no single state other than South Carolina on the Republican side that's decisive. I think there are a couple of reasons.

First, the outside role of independents, and not, you know, undeclared voter for 45 percent of the vote in both the last Republican primary in 12 and the Democratic primary in 08. That's more than almost anywhere else. So it's kind of excused results.

Second, on the Democratic side, it's not really representative of the modern democratic coalition which is defined heavily by diversity by the changing face of America.

ERIN BURNETT, CNN GUEST HOST: Yeah.

BROWNSTEIN: You know, 35 percent, 40 percent of all the Democratic votes in 2016 will probably be minority voters. Here it's going to be 5 percent. And then on the Republican side, you don't have much evangelical presence. So, Iowa and New Hampshire between them actually give a pretty good boundary of the Republican coalition. That synthesizes in South Carolina which has been the real decider.

BAKARI SELLERS, FORMER SOUTH CAROLINA LAW MAKER: And just to go to go to your point about the demographic change, you have Iowa and you have New Hampshire, where less than 3 percent of the population are African-American. And then you come down to South Carolina where we're looking at more than 50 percent of the electorate will be African- American, maybe 60 percent of the electorate will be African-American.

BURNETT: Yeah, stunning change.

SELLERS: And when you get to the SEC and even Nevada, I mean, you start to see more people of color playing a role in the Democratic choosing process. So, New Hampshire is very important. However, the demographics do change and the voters do look different when you move farther downside.

BURNETT: And are the Independents really independent care? I mean, this is something, Donald Trump hoping to get a lot of voters. But (inaudible) pollster this morning said really only three percent to five percent of the total electorate here is truly independent.

That, you know, people want to say we live in the world where everyone can get everything monogrammed. Right, everyone wants to be it's me, me, me, I'm independent. But to most they're really not. They're mostly Democrats or Republicans right on there.

KAYLEIGH MCENANY, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Exactly. That's exactly right when you look at the numbers that certainly bears out. So, the question is, which way are independents going to break. And it's interesting they tend to break in the most contested area.

So, for instance, in 2008, you saw them break for the Democrats because that was the contested race. You had an excellent ground game on the part of Barack Obama here. Hillary was fighting for her life. They came in strong for Barack Obama, and Brooke freaking for the Democrat side.

Meanwhile, you look just four years ago they broke Republican because there was an incumbent president. There's something to say for independents wanting to be in the race, making a decision be, making their both meaningful.

So, I think tonight you could see them break Republican because Bernie Sanders seems to be the forgoing winner.

SELLERS: That's a very important fact. I think we go back to the game of expectations, and Bernie Sanders either we're expecting him to have a large night tonight. And I met a guy earlier today. He told me that his choices were Kasich or Sanders. And for me, I mean, I don't necessarily know how I reconcile that in my head. But yeah ...0000

BURNETT: Well, how do you reconcile the Trump/Sanders?

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah, right.

SELLERS: Well but exactly. But he's going to votes for Kasich because Kasich needs the vote more. You know, that is just the way it's happening and breaking in New Hampshire.

BURNETT: And is it's your feeling, Ron, that they want to pick winners? I mean, obviously, when you look at the track record, Tom just laid the outlet. New Hampshire doesn't generally pick winners but, is there a feeling on a voter of I want to pick the winner in a primary process?

BROWNSTEIN: I actually think less in Iowa and New Hampshire than later. And Iowa and New Hampshire don't feel like they have to be bounded by what others think. They get to decide who the others get to choose among. And I think that particularly in Iowa, there's -- you know, that kind of argument I think doesn't carry a lot of weight. I think there's something to adhere but less than in later states.

BURNETT: All right so let's talk about the later states because from here you know, we heard that Chris Christie saying he's got his ticket for tomorrow morning. Everyone says they're going ahead. So, what are the states that are most important? Obviously, it was the South Carolina. But is that really the state to be looking at in the south?

BROWNSTEIN: Look, in South Carolina, until the last time, until 2012 ...

SELLERS: We voted for Newt Gingrich.

BURNETT:: Newt Gingrich.

BROWNSTEIN: Every other time in the modern primary era going back to 1980, one candidate won Iowa on the Republican side, one candidate won New Hampshire. One of those two won South Carolina and that person was the nominee.

BURNETT: And that's was your nominee.

BROWNSTEIN: And the reason is South Carolina actually is an amalgam of the Republican coalition. Iowa is one in social conservative, this is more moderate, white collar, economically-focused South Carolina brings both of those together. It's very really important. And Georgia has a similar profile coming later in March. I think that's very important. And one of there I think is a sleeper is Arkansas, a very blue collar, evangelical state voting March 1st.

And the reason is important is because I think that is where the Cruz and Trump Venn diagrams overlap.

BURNETT: Yeah.

BROWNSTEIN: Among blue collar evangelicals and said look it was a signal not only to the south but to the big mid-western states, Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, where there are also a lot of blue-collar evangelicals.

SELLERS: Ron just named half the map.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

SELLERS: So, I'm going to -- I know, he left me with four states left. But I do look Florida. I think Florida's going to be important because of the sheer number of delegates that are assigned there. And on the Republican side, if I'm not mistaken, I believe its winner take all in Florida.

And so when you get to Florida, if you have Cruz, if you have Trump, if you have Rubio, if you have Bush --not sure Kasich can make it that far. But if you have those four, the amount of money and energy that's going to be dumped into Florida -- you know, Florida is Bush country.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

SELLERS: He has to be the --

BROWNSTEIN: And Rubio.

SELLERS: And Rubio, well, I guess, and Trump.

R: Or in a sort of do or die for all of them.

MCENANY: Yeah, Bakari, you're exactly right on this one, with Florida being so important in this race because typically, you see the Republican field whittled down fairly quickly to two, maybe three candidates.

We see now a path viable for five candidates to move forward. So, all of a sudden, these little states which might be split proportionally like we saw in Iowa, where we split eight for Ted Cruz, seven for Trump, seven for Rubio, all of a sudden, these cash cows become very, very important to cleave the way for an actual winner to.

BURNETT: How long can you have continue -- let's just say, you come out with five or six ...

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

[12:35:10] BURNETT: And you've got this still, this establishment grouping, you got a Rubio, you got a Bush, you got Kasich, you got Christie evening, let's just say. How long can you continue to have that many people stay in?

BROWNSTEIN: You know, historically, it's --

SELLERS: All about the money.

R: It's all going to get more interested with money.

SELLERS: Yeah.

BROWNSTEIN: Now there's more money and more attention than ever before. Really, there haven't been three lived -- rarely even three viable candidates in the Republican side as far as South Carolina, right. We've only had two races --

BURNETT: But now you're looking at five.

BROWNSTEIN: We're looking at that, and I think this is more money and attention. I think Marco Rubio had an enormous opportunity coming out of Iowa. There was a lot of momentum behind the idea that he would kind of close off the others and really consolidates that.

But if he doesn't do it here, it's not clear exactly where it gets done. The longer that goes, the more it benefits Cruz and Trump who have a more solid base than the other four.

SELLERS: And this drives many Americans crazy their influence and role of money in the process. And we're about to see because, you know, having a $100 million in your campaign account like Jeb Bush had at one point, that's a luxury to have. And that's going to keep him afloat for a very long period of time.

And then you see if Christie does well today. Which I'm not sure he will. But let's say Christie comes in third or second, or surprisingly to some people comes in second. Then he has one or two donors he go to get very, very large sums of money for his pacs to keep him afloat for a longer period of time.

BURNETT: He would be thrilled to come in third. I think that, yeah. SELLERS: You know, if he comes in third, he'll have a celebration.

BURNETT: He certainly will.

MCENANY: And the longer the establishment folks send the more viable it is for a Ted Cruz or Donald Trump nomination. I predict we're going to have an unhappy establishment, a very unhappy possibly RNC. We're going to look back and say, when did this happen, how did we pave the way for these folks. It could be tonight.

BROWNSTEIN: Saturday night (inaudible).

MCENANY: Exactly. Saturday night with you guys ...

R: All right.

SELLERS: I hope the Republican Party has a brokered convention. That would be some good TV.

MCENANCY: Oh no, I'm sorry.

BURNETT:: It would be good for you. I guess. All right.

Thank you very much to all three of you. Bakari, Ron, Kelly. We appreciate it.

New Hampshire has had among the highest primary voter turnout rates in the country, usually North of 50 percent. But we're hearing so far a former governor telling, this one could be 65 percent for the record books. We'll see. We'll go live to Hudson, New Hampshire, to see how things are going there right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:41:25] It is primary day in New Hampshire, but Republican hopeful John Kasich says he is already looking ahead to states like South Carolina and even Michigan.

Last hour CNN asked the Ohio governor about claims by a Jeb bush strategist who says Kasich has no play in South Carolina.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. JOHN KASICH, (R-OH) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I can't begin to tell you how many millions of dollars have been actively spent against me by virtually every candidate in the field. And yet, we're continuing to do well. And we think we have the momentum. And we're going to take a big plane tonight to down to South Carolina. We'd travel around like sardines. And now all the press wants to go. It's pretty interesting to be in the center of this tsunami.

You ought to believe virtually nothing of what you read and hear on this campaign day and only half of what you see. If you want to see what we have, you come on down to South Carolina. You hear me? Y'all come. Y'all come because we're going to be changing snowshoes for flip-flops, and we'll go from fried clams to jambalaya. Come on down and see.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHLEIGH BANFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Like that. Kasich tells at CNN no matter what happens he's run a positive campaign and says he will have no regrets. But we are still in New Hampshire, folks. And that's the state that's long enjoyed one of the highest voter turnouts of any of the primary states.

And this year the secretary of state there is predicting something big. The number of people casting votes could in fact set a record. He says he expects 550,000 people to come out. His deputy said, wait, hold on, we're only around the noon day now. So, we're going to hold back on that. But says expects things to be pretty active.

I do want to give you perspective though. About 357,000 people caucused in Iowa last week, so that's a lot more voters in New Hampshire. Chris Frates is live at one of the polling stations. He's in Hudson, New Hampshire.

So, I'm just looking behind you, taking a peek. Does it look pretty busy in the midday?

CHRIS FRATES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, it's been busy all day here, Ashleigh. And the folks here tell us about 3,200 voters have come through the door since they opened here at 7:00 a.m. And about 1, 600 Democrats, 1,600 Republicans so it's about even in terms of which party folks are casting votes for.

It had been a little bit more Republican earlier in the day. That's evening out as more and more folks come. But what's so interesting about Iowa, right behind me, you see a line. Those are independent voters. So, those voters who came in, they chose Democrat or Republican ballots. And now they're changing their affiliation back to independent.

And I talked to two independent voters. One was a Goldwater Republican. He told me he voted for Hillary Clinton. I talked to another conservative Republican. Here's what he told me. Let's take a listen to what some voters said earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BRUCE ATWOOD, VOTER: From NY Archie Bunker line is, right down to -- my son is gay, and my daughter's Jewish.

FRATES: Is that a fact?

ATWOOD: That's a fact. So, obviously I'm sensitive to the views of the evangelicals about gay rights, of course.

BILL YORKELL, VOTER: My original thought was to vote Democratic. Then I was going to vote for Bernie against Hillary and so forth because I think she's of the old school.

But as I thought about it more and more and I got up to the table, I decided to go Republican because I'm definitely Republican, very conservative. And I ended up voting for John Kasich.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FRATES: So, there you go Ashleigh. That is the kind of -- very difficult to tell where folks are going to go in New Hampshire. Independents here, always able to choose one way or the other. I talked to Bill Yorkell, he's the one who was thinking Sanders and went with Kasich.

[12:45:00] And he said that was largely because he had seen Kasich campaign throughout this state. In fact, he's from the North Country. And Kasich was the only Republican to go all the way up to Dixville Notch, which of course you know cast the first vote here in New Hampshire at 12:00 a.m.

And he thought that swung his vote. And that was something -- I was with the Kasich campaign for a lot of the week, they thought their ground game in doing over 100 town halls would pay off.

I talked to one voter who did. Now, when we talked to the conservative Goldwater Republican who voted for Hillary Clinton, Bruce Atwood, he told me, I said, why didn't you vote for maybe the establishment -- Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, you know, they were moderate Republicans and certainly after a vote like Bruce Atwood's.

And he told me, you know, I just couldn't get down with them on the social issues. He thought that was important. The next president he told me will likely select the Supreme Court justice. And he didn't want that justice to be too conservative. So you know, it's ...

BANFIELD: Always curious.

FRATES: Fascinating, here Ashleigh to talk to.

BANFIELD: What doesn't, right? That last group of people is huge.

FRATES: Exactly.

BANFIELD: That's last chunks of people is huge and, it could be one little thing that changes their mind. And you're hearing it right there where they're making a decision.

FRATES: exactly.

BANFIELD: Chris Frates. Thank you for that.

CNN's going to cover the New Hampshire primary all day today. Be sure to tune in for the voting and the results.

Battle for second place in the GOP is so close. The polls show Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich are so close, it's the jump ball that Jeb Bush was talking about. Is he into it? We're following the candidates on the campaign trail on this exciting day in New Hampshire.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [12:50:51] BURNETT: All right there, a lot of hours of voting left here on primary day in New Hampshire. It is snow-filled but not snowing, and very, very cold. But no one is intimidated here. Cities and towns can set their own poll closing hours. Most of them though close at 7:00 Eastern.

Very soon thereafter, we'll get a somewhat clearer picture of this unconventional race for president. I say somewhat because, my god, it just may not clear anything up. But joining me, now our political commentator Sirius XM radio host Michael Smirconish and of course CNN anchor also joins me.

OK, so a couple of big themes here. So, let's just, you were saying, let's assume for a moment if that Donald Trump does come out on top. If that happens, then you're saying there could be this real cluster in the middle. And this real cluster, we were joking about what word usually comes after cluster.

MICHAEL SMECONISH, CNN POLITICAL ANCHOR: Was that to ...

BURNETT: All right. Yeah. It's both of those things, OK. So, what happens if everyone is bunched up?

SMERCONISH: Then everybody gets to say I'm still in this thing and let's get to South Carolina. And I'm thinking Erin that's a likely outcome tonight. That whom ever is number two -- and this is a race for number two.

I just got off the radio. Robert Costa was one of my guests. He's been assigned the lead for the "Washington post" tomorrow. It's not going to be Trump. His lead is not going to be Trump. Because it seems a foregone conclusion that Trump wins. It's all about the race for number two. If someone comes in not by a large margin, then they're all still packed together and they keep fighting if they have money.

BURNETT: If they have money.

SMERCONISH: Right.

BURNETT: And that's the crucial thing. So, if you're packed into that bunch, don't have money now, are you going to be able to get money? I mean, this is the crucial question, someone like John Kasich has momentum. He needs more money. Chris Christie needs more money. And Jeb Bush has money right now. But what about ...

SMERCONISH: I think it depends which of them you are, because I just left Kasich, as well. He was on my radio -- my radio show this morning. And he seems to be really feeling the buzz.

If you're Kasich and come in, in second position, I think you are a fund-raising vehicle because now you get to see, see, I told you I can put this together. But some of the others, you know, Chris Christie, if you're not really at the top of that pack, i don't know where you go for fund-raising.

BURNETT: Right, and what about if there isn't a clear second? Right, what if Donald Trump comes in not at 30 percent? He comes in, in the mid to low 20s, and everybody is really, 18, 17, 14. You know when could end up with a tough call for "second."

SMERCONISH: Great news for Donald Trump, right, isn't that the scenario of? I mean, Donald Trump doesn't want to face one other individual particularly ...

BURNETT: So even if he underperformed, that could still be a win.

SMERCONISH If Trump wins but underperforms and the others are clustered together and there's no identifiable establishment, some of them don't like that label, but there's no establishment candidate, its great news for Trump, because no l longer they're -- in my opinion, the longer they're on that stage, the better able he can do at distinguishing himself.

BURNETT: OK. So, then there's this other -- this other thing looming in the wings. That, of course, is Michael Bloomberg.

SMECONISH: Right.

BURNETT: So Michael Bloomberg is saying he might jump in? At first it was only at Bernie Sanders and might jump in. At first it was only if Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump won the nominations. And now it's well maybe only if Donald Trump wins, he'd still be jumping in if Hillary Clinton won the democratic nomination. Do you think he is for real now? That this is likely?

SMERCONISH: Well, I think tonight it becomes more likely that he gets in, because if the polls hold, it would be Bernie Sanders by a large margin on the Democratic side and Donald Trump for the Republicans.

I think though that Bloomberg has to wait for the SEC primary on March 1st, to really know where we are. Meaning, beyond South Carolina, beyond Nevada to see what happens on March 1. And make his call.

But I take this for real and maybe ...

BURNETT: Yeah.

SMERCONISH: ... wishful thinking because I would like to see an independent on that stage, on the debate stage forcing the left and the right to defend their views against a centrist.

BURNETT: A centrist, what so many Americans say they are?

SMERCONISH: Correct.

BURNETT: They say they are. Are they really a centrist.

SMERCONISH: Of course not. More than two percent say, I'm and I not an R, not a D. And I think they need representation too.

BURNETT: All right Michael Smerconish, thank you.

SMERCONISH: It'd be quite enough, right? BURNETT: It's going to be an exciting day.

SMERCONISH: Unbelievable.

BURNETT: Exciting time. Exciting time to be a part of the whole process. All right, Ashleigh, back to you.

BANFIELD: Thanks Erin, Thanks Michael. Thanks for watching, everybody. CNN's going to cover the New Hampshire primary all day. Be sure to tune in for the voting and results. Wolf's going to pick up our coverage after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:54:15] WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, I'm Wolf Blitzer, its 1:00 p.m. in Washington. We want to welcome our viewers in the United States and around the world. Thank you very much for joining us.

We start in New Hampshire where voting is now underway in the first in the nation primary. The presidential candidates, they're spread out across the state today. They're meeting and greeting voters as they head to the polls. They're trying to squeeze every last vote out of New Hampshire.

Here's the snapshot of what we're seeing and hearing on the campaign trail today starting with James Sanders, Bernie Sanders, wife talking with our Alisyn Camerota in Manchester.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JANE SANDERS, BERNIE SANDERS WIFE: We hope to win by at least one vote. And that should be fine.

(CHEERS)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Marco, Marco.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I feel great.

We're having -- look, it's not over yet. We have to too well here, I mean, you know, who knows what will happen because each of these elections makes a big difference. And so we intend to change the narrative tonight.

JEB BUSH, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It was like everybody's got perceptions when they start and a good candidate changes while they got them when they're ...

[13:00:15]