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New Hampshire Primary; John Kasich on Primary. Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired February 9, 2016 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[14:00:00] WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks very much for watching. I'll be back in "The Situation Room," 5:00 p.m. Eastern, for our special coverage of the New Hampshire primary. The news continues right now.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, here we go. Top of the hour. You're watching CNN here on this special first in the nation primary Tuesday. I'm Brooke Baldwin, live in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Primary day in America. First primary in the nation. Right now voters are at the polls. They're deciding who will walk away with some big, big prizes here. There are no more rallies, no more town halls. It is time for the shaking of hands, pouring of coffee or, if you're John Kasich, the Red Arrow Diner, topping someone's coffee off this morning. The candidates are out in full force doing what New Hampshire elections are known for, talking to supporters, being with volunteers, whatever they can to round up those votes.

Listen, it's cold here. It is 20-something degrees, but I can tell you, we all somehow managed through the snow all day yesterday. It is clear, beautiful blue skies. Certainly some snow on the ground, but these are some hardy folks here in New Hampshire. They've got this.

The New Hampshire secretary of state is expecting a record turnout with more than half a million votes. We're watching closely because it's not just win, place or show here, where everybody falls matters. A failure here in New Hampshire to perform to expectations, to show your campaign has life, will be costly. So let's kick off our coverage this hour with Joe Johns. He's at a polling station not too far from me here in Manchester. And we also have Brian Todd down in Hudson, where we'll actually begin our coverage.

Brian Todd, talk to me, how's turnout so far?

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Brooke, the turnout is fantastic. The snow, the cold weather, not hampering these voters from getting to the polls. We're here at the Hudson Community Center in Hudson, New Hampshire, just outside Nashua. They expect about 9,000 voters here. We think they're going to break that record.

As you mentioned, the secretary of state thinks the state record is going to be shattered today. There's evidence of that here. Look at these lines going out the door right over here. They've been piling in here since 7:00 a.m. this morning, almost the predawn hours, and the line of cars, Brooke, has extended at least six blocks down the road. The voters come in here, they line up, they register here. Many voters

are undeclared independents. They'll come in here. They'll say that they're independent. They'll be asked which affiliation they want to choose just for this vote. And then they're handed either a Republican ballot in pink or a Democratic one in blue.

The average voter then goes over here to the booth. And the average one, as we've timed them out, takes about 35 seconds to vote. Not long. Then they run them through a tabulator that's right there.

Now, we mentioned the independent voters are critical. I've got one right here, Debbie Hedstrom.

You're an undeclared voter, Debbie. You were undeclared coming in. You said you went Republican. Why did you go Republican this time?

DEBBIE HEDSTROM, UNDECLARED VOTER: Because I really believe in all the values that Donald Trump says what he's going to do for this country. And I think that for us to build up the military and our defense is a big priority with the security of the country and of the world.

TODD: And a big question that a lot of people have - because a lot of states don't have this dynamic of a lot of undeclared voters. When did you change your mind? When did you decide to go Republican this time?

HEDSTROM: Oh, quite a long time ago. Quite a - I've been -

TODD: Week, days?

HEDSTROM: I'd say weeks. Weeks. Definitely weeks. Although many of the people I've spoken with have - in New Hampshire, typically a lot of them are undecided until they get to the polls.

TODD: Right.

HEDSTROM: I definitely was not. I was clear about my decision.

TODD: Very good. Well, Debbie, thank you very much for talking to us and best of luck to you.

HEDSTROM: Thank you. Thanks.

TODD: Now, Brooke, one thing we have to tell you is, when the undeclared come in and they declare an affiliation here, they don't have to stay declared. If they want to reregister as an independent voter when they leave, they come and stand in this line and they tell these folks that they want to go back as an undeclared independent voter. And a lot of them, Brooke, are doing that. The undeclared voters in New Hampshire are dominant in this state. They are certainly dominant here today.

BALDWIN: I feel the energy. Thank you for the tour. Thirty-five seconds, you're in, you're out, you vote. Brian Todd, thank you very much.

And on to Joe Johns now. Let's check in with Joe Johns, who is live in Manchester.

Listen, the story is, these independent voters, it's a game-time decision once they enter the polling places.

JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Yes, and, you know, here at McDonnell Elementary School, Brooke, this is where we are, they've had so far they tell us about 1,200 people come in and vote. That is since they started early this morning. Total, they have about 4,000 registered for this ward. But I hesitate to say they've had one- fourth of the people who are registered actually come in. And that's because of new voters.

If you look over here at this table, we've had a steady stream of people coming in registering on the same day and voting. It's a process that doesn't take very long. As you can see, they have clip boards. They stand there. They fill out an application. And they turn it in. And then they move on to go and vote.

[14:05:05] So the question is, how many people they're going to end up with and who are they voting for. Really no way to tell that scientifically because they're not going to give us a vote count until sometime after 7:00, 8:00 this evening.

However, I can tell you, we've talked to some voters who have been leaving after they finish and we've got just a variety of answers. Here's a sampling.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think that we have a really diverse group of candidates right now and they all bring something to the table. But, ultimately, my heart went with Carly.

JOHNS: Why?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: She's the - she's the candidate that's going to beat Hillary and that's what's important to me right now.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Clearly and unequivocally say that I voted for Bernie Sanders. Where my deciding, you know, factor goes leaning towards Senator Sanders has more so to do with his relatability. I don't believe that one should vote, you know, gender base at all.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JOHNS: So the voting was very busy first thing this morning and then it settled down just a bit. You hit that typical lull. A big crowd around the lunchtime hour and they're expecting another one around dinnertime, right before the polls close. So we'll be watching.

Back to you, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Joe Johns, we will indeed. We'll be checking in with different polling locations. I'll tell you, I was up till 1:00 in the morning watching our coverage from Dixville Notch. It's just fascinating to see how seriously New Hampshire takes all of this, as they should.

Joe, thank you.

So much to watch for. Let's break it all down with Ana Marie Cox, senior political correspondent for MTV News and founding editor of Wonokette, CNN's senior political analyst Ron Brownstein. He is the editorial director at "National Journal." And Kayleigh McEnany, editor and chief and founder of Political Prospect and also a Donald Trump supporter.

So awesome seeing all of you. Thanks for taking the time.

So much to go through. First to you, Kayleigh, on Trump, will a win be enough for him tonight or does he need to win big?

KAYLEIGH MCENANY, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF & FOUNDER, POLITICAL PROSPECT: I think a win's enough because here's what we know about Donald Trump, he knows how to spin things in a very positive light. So as he said, a win by one vote is a win nonetheless. He was lowering expectations there. But he will drive that home. People said I couldn't win, people said I fell in Iowa, I faltered in Iowa, and I couldn't win here. He will blow this up into a big win. Now, there will be some media scrutiny for sure, but any win is a win for Donald Trump because as Ron pointed out several times today, the eventual nominee has historically won either New Hampshire or Iowa.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes, you know, look, a win is a win, but I think the issue for Donald Trump isn't really spin. I mean the question is, if he underperforms his polls again, it would suggest that he has a structural problem in that Donald Trump does best, like Bernie Sanders for that matter, among people who are less likely to vote. And if he underperformed the polls again, leave aside any spin or media expectation, it would suggest that some of the people are being counted in the polls don't actually show up and that would be an actual problem, not a perception problem going forward.

ANA MARIE COX, SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, MTV NEWS: He (INAUDIBLE) before -

BALDWIN: Right.

COX: (INAUDIBLE) people are willing to say they're going to vote for him on the phone, but when they get there in the voting booth and they have to decide who's actually going to be in the Oval Office addressing the American public, it might not be someone (INAUDIBLE) like Donald Trump.

BALDWIN: Change their minds.

BROWNSTEIN: And, of course, he may - he may just do fine, anyway. He may be fine.

BALDWIN: And if I may - if I may, and we're not going to dwell on this, but if you are in the Oval Office and the language that was used last night here in Manchester -

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Right.

BALDWIN: Can we just take a beat, this is someone who wants to be president.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BALDWIN: Is this acceptable?

BROWNSTEIN: No, no, I was - I was at the event last night and I describe this as the Trump trap. The language that he used was really in the tenor of the event. He felt the need, either by calculation or personal inclination, to really throw a lot of meat to that crowd. And this is the bod he's in, Brooke. I mean he feels that he has to do that to fire up his core support, but it does raise questions for other voters. I mean I was at an event on Sunday where many Republican voters were saying the biggest hurdle they have is, they just don't see him as a president.

MCENANY: Look, but, Ron - Ron, he shouldn't have repeated that word. You know, no one should say that word, even retweeting it or repeating it.

BALDWIN: He shouldn't have. Right. Right.

MCENANY: Nonetheless, you know, voters care about what we just heard on Wolf's show, who is, there's going to be an ISIS attack here in this country this year, which is what James Clapper came out and said.

BALDWIN: Right.

MCENANY: People who are voting for Donald Trump, we just heard that undecided voter, are voting for him for that reason.

BALDWIN: Let's talk about - beyond - and we're going to - the news on ISIS -

COX: I wouldn't -

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

COX: Well -

BROWNSTEIN: OK.

COX: I was just going to weigh in. I think what's really offensive about what Trump said -

BALDWIN: Yes.

COX: Is not actually that word, but that he was mocking Cruz -

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

COX: For not endorsing water boarding. I mean, what's really offensive to my sensibilities as an American is that we would torture people. It's not the language that he used, it's that he's an enthusiastic, blood thirsty guy.

MCENANY: When national security is on the line -

BROWNSTEIN: Well - well, it's -

MCENANY: When national security is on the line, most Americans don't care about water boarding an individual. They care about keeping their families safe.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

COX: I think that people - I mean I think that people like - other people on the conservative side, people like John McCain, have said - and people --- people like Ted Cruz have said that water boarding is too far. That we, as American people, want to distinguish ourselves from ISIS, not be like them.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. And, look, I think even the substance, as Ana Marie says, the substance is also indicative of the challenge Trump faces.

COX: Yes.

MCENANY: It is.

COX: Yes.

BROWNSTEIN: Because in many of things that he has proposed, deporting 12 million people, a Muslim ban, there is definitely an audience for that in the Republican Party.

COX: Yes. It's -

BALDWIN: Let me jump in. Hang on, hang on, hang on.

BROWNSTEIN: But there's a limit.

BALDWIN: On what he's talked - he's talked a lot about this wall. And so this actually just came down. He actually did the math. This is what he called - this is what he called, this is simple math. He said he took a price per square foot, price per square mile, you know, multiplied whatever and got to the figure of $8 billion, which is what he says it would cost to build this wall on the U.S./Mexican border. Mexico, he said, would pay for it. This is the first time we've actually heard a price tag.

[14:10:11] BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BALDWIN: How did he arrive at this?

MCENANY: He said it was cost per square mile. He said he would take into account natural barriers along the border. And, you know, if there's one thing we can trust Donald Trump on, it's probably math, because he did amass a $10 million brand and did so successfully. So, hey, I think -

COX: Except for all the bankruptcies. BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Yes.

COX: So, I mean, it might - you know, there might be some reason to doubt his math.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

COX: I mean or doubt his ability -

BALDWIN: Duly noted.

BROWNSTEIN: And, by the way, the cost of the wall is not the issue. The cost of deporting 12 million people is the issue.

COX: Yes.

BROWNSTEIN: And one thing to think about that is, what are the odds that Paul Ryan, with his view on immigration, would give a president Donald Trump the appropriation he needs to deport 12 million people.

MCENANY: An $8 billion wall is a blip on the radar of a $19 trillion debt.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, but the cost - no, no, the cost - no, the cost of the - the cost of the deportation is vastly, vastly higher.

COX: Yes.

BALDWIN: Just wanted to throw that in there as we marinate.

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

MCENANY: Right.

BROWNSTEIN: OK.

COX: OK.

BALDWIN: The fight for second is also so, so key. We've seen the cluster. We talk about the governors. We talk about the senators here, beyond the Donald Trump assumed, maybe/maybe not win here in New Hampshire. To me it's less about delegates. When you look at the delegates, it doesn't shake out to much here in New Hampshire. It's about momentum.

COX: Right.

BALDWIN: Because whoever is chosen as the dubbed the number two, is that person who is the challenger of Donald Trump down the road in these southern primary states?

BROWNSTEIN: Not necessarily.

BALDWIN: Not necessarily.

BROWNSTEIN: I mean it looked - it looked like that could happen coming out of Iowa. I mean Ted Cruz has a lane. He has support with evangelical Christians. He has a way forward. Donald Trump, probably wins tonight, he has a lane and support particularly with blue collar Republicans. The question has been whether anyone can consolidate the last piece of the party, the kind of mainstream conservatives -

BALDWIN: You don't think that will be out consolidated out of New Hampshire?

BROWNSTEIN: I think it's much less likely than it looked like a week ago, particularly because of the debate.

BALDWIN: Ana Marie, what -

MCENANY: Oh, sorry.

COX: That's OK. I tend to agree. I think that we're seeing history change on a massive scale in this election. I'm not sure we're going to see the traditional like someone out of Iowa is going to get the nomination. I think even Rubio, he's going to have to perform dramatically well. He's not just - I think he'll have to exceed expectations -

BALDWIN: Because of the debate.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

COX: Because of the debate. Which, by the way, I think he might. I think that New Hampshire voters have a different definition of gaffe than media.

BALDWIN: Yes.

COX: But he's going to have to do very well to carry that momentum.

BALDWIN: Let me just stay with you because I'm also really fascinated with Jeb Bush. Jeb Bush has been out. Jeb Bush has been strong. Jeb Bush had a nice night here at the debate.

COX: Right.

BALDWIN: Jeb Bush has been throwing snow balls. Jeb Bush swung by my hotel this morning just to say hello to the hotel staff because he's not staying here. I don't know if I'm supposed to say that, but he did. I mean, listen, that happens.

COX: He set out some chairs at an event.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BALDWIN: I mean, why do you think he feels more comfortable in his own skin? And I'm wondering why.

COX: I wonder if it's the comfort you get when you know you're going to lose. I wonder if it's, there's not much, you know, he's putting everything on the table. This is, you know, go big or go home. I also think he's sort of a New Hampshirer/New Englander at heart. I mean he may be - may have been the governor of Florida, but his family has that kind of New England kind of feel to it. And that I think that he -

BALDWIN: He's more relaxed.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

COX: Identifies with these people. I think he identifies with the voters.

BROWNSTEIN: Is it - is it the Kris Kristofferson theory of politics, freedom is just another word for mothing (INAUDIBLE)?

COX: (INAUDIBLE), yes.

BROWNSTEIN: But, look, no, I think, look, I think he feel as though he is making his case about as well as he can make it now.

COX: Yes.

BROWNSTEIN: he's making it against Donald Trump.

BALDWIN: Yes.

BROWNSTEIN: He's making it against Marco Rubio. And I think they do think, especially after Saturday, that this is not likely to produce that kind of squeezing out that seemed possible a week ago -

BALDWIN: Yes.

BROWNSTEIN: Where Rubio could preempt the three governors. Now at least two of them may be going forward, which is probably good for Trump in the long run. (INAUDIBLE).

BALDWIN: Final word from you.

MCENANY: I - I don't - you know, I don't think, you know, Jeb Bush's efforts are enough. We've seen his mom come in, which I think has really kind of lifted his spirits and his brother's commercial come in. But one thing I really want to point out tonight, as for second place, we talk a lot about Kasich's ground game.

BALDWIN: Yes.

MCENANY: We talk a lot about media blitz surge. But Cruz possibly picking up Rand Paul voter because he is very libertarian, wants to, you know, shut down the IRS, it's very anti-NSA, he could pick up some of that libertarian vote, which drove Ron Paul to second place here in New Hampshire. So don't discount him. He's just three points behind Rubio in the latest CNN poll.

BALDWIN: Kayleigh McEnany, Ron Brownstein, Ana Marie Cox, thank you all so much. Love the differing opinions.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BALDWIN: It's what we need, healthy debate here on primary day.

Speaking of John Kasich, by the way, John Kasich says that Jeb Bush is going down the low road as the Ohio governor tests how well a positive campaign can do. You will hear directly from Governor Kasich and his wife coming up next with our own Dana Bash.

Also, who is better qualified to serve as president? Would it be a governor, an executive of a state, or a senator? We'll talk to presidential historian Douglas Brinkley, who will weigh in on that.

And we alluded to this a moment ago. Disturbing new revelations straight from America's top intelligence official. Not only does James Clapper say ISIS will attack in the U.S. this year, but reveals what the terrorists are doing specifically with refugees.

I'm Brooke Baldwin. Do not miss a beat of this. You're watching CNN's special live coverage, live from Manchester, New Hampshire.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:18:41] BALDWIN: You're watching CNN on this primary day here in Manchester. New Hampshire is known for its wildly different electorate. Voters are overwhelmingly independent. And this time they are choosing from quite the diverse field of candidates. Ohio Governor John Kasich, for one, is one of those contenders hoping to cash in on the voter's list of choices. And CNN's chief political correspondent, Dana Bash, talked to the Ohio governor and his wife at their campaign headquarters just a short time ago.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: How you feeling? You've been out at the polling places this morning?

GOV. JOHN KASICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know, I - I mean, I feel great. I mean I think people are responding to the positive message despite all the negative attacks. I'm kind of hoping that they're, you know, in this - at least at this point, that they're just bouncing off of me rather than penetrating. Very optimistic. And, look, when you win Dixville Notch, what can you say? I think, you know, you've kind of got it locked.

BASH: How about you, Mrs. Kasich?

KAREN KASICH, GOV. JOHN KASICH'S WIFE: I feel great. The people of New Hampshire have been wonderful. We've had a great few days out here. And now we're just ready to run through the tape at the finish line.

BASH: Now, just want to ask you, just for you kind of reflections, because you've been here for a while now. You spent a lot of time with people of New Hampshire. Today it's finally here. How are you feeling about that? Are you emotional about it?

J. KASICH: Yes, yes, well, I mean, I have been. Today, I'm just sort of going - you know, finishing up strong. But I've learned a lot about my life. [14:20:02] BASH: Like what?

J. KASICH: I - I've always try to take care of people as governor, you know, the ones who are - who are beleaguered. But now I - I've come to realize that even in my personal life, my dealings, wherever I go, to the coffee shop or back home in Columbus or the gym or wherever I am, you've got to look people in the eye and you've got to listen to them because there are many people who just don't feel that anybody listens to them, cares about them, is willing to celebrate with them or even to commiserate with them when they've got tragedy. And so for me personally, it's going to kind of change the way in which I slow down and interact with people. Yes, it had been an incredible experience. I don't have a negative thing to think. And I've got a couple - I mean one really great thing, I have beaten everybody on my team in basketball. I mean nobody can take me down.

BASH: I call a reality check, is that true?

J. KASICH: Yes.

K. KASICH: It must be, he said so.

BASH: How about you? You know, you have - you hear your husband talking about how he's changed. Do you see that?

K. KASICH: Well, I think after you do 106 town halls in the state and you meet with people in small groups like that, 200, 300 people, sometimes 50 people, they come and some of them bear their souls. I mean they tell you very personal stories about what's bothering them. And you take - he takes that to heart. So, yes, I've seen him become very reflective and thoughtful about what it is people are really dealing with.

BASH: You talked a little bit about the negativity. Of course you seem to be doing well and threatening some of your competitors, so that's what happens in politics. What will it say if you end up finishing well? And also what do you consider well?

J. KASICH: Well, it will - you know, close to the top is what we would consider, and that will be something our team will look at when the returns come in. I mean I, you know, I think we're going to have a strong finish here. And it may say to the - to the public, maybe it's not so much to the public but the political analysts, is maybe we ought to spend more time trying to figure out how to sell who we are rather than trashing somebody else. And wouldn't that be a great change, that - that maybe we can show that politics really is changing in America. People want authenticity. They want to know what's in your head but also what's in your heart. And when you spend all your time trying to drag somebody else down, maybe people have had enough of it. We're going to see and this is going to be a great test case for the American political situation.

BASH: How much are you relying on independent voters who can vote in the Republican primary?

J. KASICH: We're relying on every voter. I mean these people call everybody. What I've relied on is the ground game. The best ground game, Gordon Humphrey, the former senator, says he's seen in 40 years. The insurance policy here are the people. I mean, they've come from Seattle, Virginia, Tennessee, Ohio. One guy flew in from London. And, you know, as one told me just today, when I said the other day that life is but a breath and go for it with great zest, he said it - like it took me back to philosophy class in college and made me feel young again. These are the kind of things that are just amazing. And, you know, I'll tell you what it is. I - I am so free in what I say, and I am - I am - I'm not only free in what I say, but I'm free in what I feel. And I'm very comfortable sharing it with people. And it's - it's so cool to just be able to share some of your deep feelings with people, even when they can be a little emotional. It's great.

BASH: One last question going forward. You said that you obviously want to finish - would like to finish first, but you said you hoped to finish close to the top. What does that mean? Does that mean third? Does that mean second? Does that mean fourth?

J. KASICH: I - you know, I can't get into that now because all I do is - look, Dana, I'm on the 17th green. I'm going to 18. I don't look at the - at the scoreboard. I go into the clubhouse. And when I play my best golf, particularly in politics, I usually win.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BALDWIN: The golf analogies. Hello, friend.

BASH: Hello.

BALDWIN: So, I mean, he was so candid with you and I love how - I mean 106 town halls. It's not nothing, as they say.

BASH: No.

BALDWIN: And the fact that he said to you, you know, he's learned to become nicer and really, truly look people in the eye. Almost this like tone and tenor change on the trail.

BASH: Absolutely. Two things. One is, he has known to have a little bit of a temper.

BALDWIN: Yes.

BASH: Maybe be moody is probably the better way to put it.

BALDWIN: OK.

BASH: And he, I think, reading what he was saying, he was clearly saying like he's learned to try to cut that out and really look people in the eye and be nicer, even when he's tired or cranky or like we all get.

But the other interesting thing that I learned there, just standing there and talking to some of the volunteers on the phone, is their strategy, even today, because so many voters are undecided. That one volunteer who made 500 calls just today alone just in a few hours - [14:25:01] BALDWIN: Wow!

BASH: What he was saying to people who were independents, who can vote in either primary. You know what, don't - somebody said, I might vote for Bernie. Don't go vote for Bernie. He's going to win on the Democratic side. Don't you want to beat Donald Trump? Come vote for John Kasich. So much strategic getting out the vote. It's not just, you know, come on, go vote for John Kasich, it's making those arguments because voters, we cannot underscore this enough, voters here in New Hampshire are so sophisticated, they get that kind thing.

BALDWIN: What a pitch inside the Kasich camp.

BASH: Yes.

BALDWIN: And how that could ultimately shake out and help Hillary Clinton as well.

BASH: Yes, it could.

BALDWIN: Dana Bash, thank you very much for that.

BASH: Thanks, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Just ahead here, one "Sports Illustrated" swimsuit model is now supporting Bernie Sanders. Hear why - hear her explain actually why gender has nothing to do with her choice of who she wants to be president.

Plus, #robotrubio, the Christie attack. We're following the candidate outside a polling place in New Hampshire. We will check in with the senator's campaign, which is hoping for a big, big rebound tonight.

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