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EARLY START

Ted Cruz Wins GOP Caucus in Iowa; Virtual Tie Separating Clinton and Sanders; Peace Talks for Syria Formally Under Way; WHO Declares Zika Virus Public Health Emergency; Donald Trump Promises to Soldier On. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired February 2, 2016 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[03:00:24]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Just how we planned it. Welcome to a special it's not over yet edition of EARLY START. I'm John Berman.

POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Poppy Harlow. It is Tuesday, February 2nd. It is bright and early, 3 o'clock on the East Coast. Welcome to our viewers here in the United States and around the world. What a night it has been. Berman eating it up, loving it. We still only have one winner, one winner on the Republican side. But here is why we don't have a winner on the Democratic side. Look at that. Two-tenths of a percentage point separating Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on the night. Martin O'Malley drops out. Ted Cruz, the clear winner here on the Republican side. Literally we've been told by Sunlen Serfaty popping bottles -- champagne bottles to be exact -- on his campaign plane landing in New Hampshire. But Berman, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio just one point apart.

BERMAN: Yeah. One point apart. We put the Democratic race up one more time here. Big, big drama because two-tenth of a percentage separates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. That is with 99 percent of the precincts reporting. There is still a small handful out. We don't exactly know how many ...

HARLOW: Right.

BERMAN: ... precincts we are waiting to hear from, but there are a few out there. The Democratic Party says they're trying to get in touch with the precincts here to find out what's going on. We keep waiting for these numbers to be updated. It could happen any minute. Let's bring in CNN's politics senior digital correspondent, Chris Moody. He is in Des Moines. Chris, explain what's going on here.

CHRIS MOODY, CNN POLITICS SENIOR DIGITAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you said it. It is -- we are still waiting. It's 3 o'clock on the East Coast and we still do not have the results of the Democratic caucus at this point. It's very quiet in Des Moines at this point. A lot of the candidates have already left town heading to New Hampshire, but Democratic caucus watchers are still biting their nails waiting for just those last few precincts. It's a very exciting caucus night for certain. HARLOW: How important for us to know -- and tell me if we do know -- which of the caucus sites of the 1,600 plus haven't reported yet, right? Because if they're in -- if we can pull that map back up. If they're in those college towns that have been so good to Bernie Sanders, for example, or if they're more around Des Moines, Polk county there that has helped Hillary, that will matter a lot. Do we know which ones they are?

MOODY: we don't know at this point. We're still waiting to hear from a number of the precinct captains. But if it is in College Towns, those are places where Bernie Sanders was supposed to do exceptionally well and he certainly has. So it's looking like we're going to have to wait a little bit longer for those results. CNN is certainly not calling it and we're not going to rely on the campaigns either.

HARLOW: Right.

MOODY: It's going to require the Democratic Party to tell us the answer to this question.

HARLOW: Yeah.

BERMAN: To be clear, both campaigns are spinning this, right?

HARLOW: Yeah.

BERMAN: The Bernie Sanders campaign is saying, "Oh, the Democratic Party blew it. They didn't have chairs where they needed them. It's their fault." The Clinton campaign is saying, "We think we won. We think we'll emerge from this with just one, maybe two more delegates in the Bernie Sanders campaign." But they say they are confident, Chris. That it's over. Quickly the Republican side, Ted Cruz, he actually won. We have an actual caucus winner that we're not talking much about and it is Ted Cruz.

MOODY: We don't just have a winner. We have a big winner. Ted Cruz won by a wide margin, especially in a race that people really said would not be -- they would not be able to call earlier today or predict what was going to happen, but Ted Cruz came out way on top. The other news in that race is that Marco Rubio came in third, but he just came in a hair's breath behind Donald Trump and that does not look good for Donald Trump.

HARLOW: Yeah.

MOODY: The people coming out of this race on the Republican side is looking strong, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz going into New Hampshire.

HARLOW: And really important to note aside from Ted Cruz clear winner here, showing the sort of the traditional ground game in Iowa worked for him. He had 12,000 volunteers out yesterday. Let's bring in our panel, our political commentators, Tara Setmayer, Maria Cardona, Sally Kohn, Ben Ferguson, all with us. When you look at the Des Moines register poll that came out at the end of the week, the gold standard of polls had Rubio at 15 percent, OK? He comes in at 23 percent. Donald Trump, let's hear how he addressed this tonight. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I don't know who's going to win between Bernie and Hillary. I don't know what's going to happen with Hillary has got other problems, maybe bigger than the problems she's got in terms of nominations. But we've had so many different indications in polls that we beat her and we beat her easily and we will go on to get the Republican nomination and we will go on to easily beat Hillary or Bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[03:05:10] HARLOW: All right. So that's Trump winning by 1 percentage point. You know what he hasn't done, Ben Ferguson, in 7 hours? Tweeted.

BEN FERGUSON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Tweet. Yeah.

HARLOW: Nothing.

FERGUSON: Yeah. Because I don't think he knows what to do but win and all of a sudden you don't win. It's like, I don't know how to handle this. I mean, remember, this is a guy that tweeted out no one remembers who comes in second place. Everyone will remember this night and coming in second place. But the other thing is, Ted Cruz didn't just win this. Let's go back to 6 o'clock tonight. People were saying that if Donald Trump won this thing, what was going to happen? It was over. If he won, the momentum coming out of here would be huge and there will also be people saying that Donald -- that Ted Cruz's campaign would also be over if he doesn't win. He has to win. Not only did he win tonight, he actually did a really good job of winning by a significant margin.

BERMAN: He set the record. He set the record ...

(CROSSTALK)

FERGUSON: He set the record for the most people coming out. And I think this is what you're going to see moving forward is there are a lot of conservatives there saying I do not want Donald Trump and I'm willing to go after and really work for someone like Ted Cruz to make sure that doesn't happen.

BERMAN: Let's -- wait. Before we hear from Sally, let's actually hear from Ted Cruz, the only person to win the Iowa caucus tonight (ph).

(CROSSTALK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: God bless the great state of Iowa.

(APPLAUSE)

Let me first of all say to God be the glory. (APPLAUSE)

Tonight is a victory for the grassroots.

(APPLAUSE)

Tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this great nation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: So that's Ted Cruz there wearing his faith on his sleeve and he did win among the evangelical voters. He did very well among candidates who said he shared their value. Sally, though, he has a little bit of a map problem in the coming weeks. New Hampshire, not a good state for Ted Cruz. Not a big evangelical state at all. South Carolina, maybe better for him there. March 1st though, very good. March 1st, the SEC primer. It's a lot of southern states. You know, he can book end February 1st, March 1st, whole thing going on here where Ted Cruz puts a lot of delegates in the bank.

SALLY KOHN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes. He sure got -- I mean there's -- it's not only that they're not good states in the middle. They're better states for other people. And so, how that plays out is interesting. We do need to remember there's a very small number of voters that turn up in Iowa, period, and how unrepresentative Iowa is of the nation, and I love Iowa. It is really one of my favorite states.

But you know, come on, it is demographically much whiter, much more conservative, much older. These are the kind of voters who are going to help Ted Cruz. And once you get into other states, you're going to see voters who represent more of the country including more moderate Republicans who not only are going to have trouble supporting Cruz but are the kind of voters who would support a candidate who probably would do better in the general election. The other thing that's going to happen is you're going to see the target on the back of Cruz. We're going to start talking about how he is really just Trump like. He's like all the bad policies with a little bit better frosting and you know ...

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN (?): I disagree. I think if anything you've got the target off your back. Ted Cruz was the guy they thought you had to take down for Donald Trump to succeed. You now have Rubio and Rubio is now going to have a target on his back. But the fact is, this plays well if you look at the map, in my opinion, for Ted Cruz because if he can make it through the next couple and be respectable I don't think anybody thinks he's going to win the next two to be honest with you. And you go into the SEC, that is where he can shine. So for him, having Rubio do right now serves him well moving forward. I think Trump now having a problem also serves him well moving forward. And I think if he can make it to the SEC, that is where he shines and it's going to be big.

SETMAYER: But I don't think -- I don't we should see the south and the SEC to Cruz. So, quickly, there are a lot of conservatives in Iowa and a lot of them voted for Marco Rubio. And because Ted Cruz let's not forget did not have a great debate night on Thursday. He was exposed some of the weaknesses in his personality, in his positions on things were exposed on Thursday that may have benefitted Marco Rubio.

So now that Rubio has performed so strongly, that may have other conservatives looking at him as an alternative to the people who don't like Ted Cruz per se because they don't think that he can appeal to a general election. So I don't think we should -- we should write that off. And the fact that we are actually like forcing ourselves to talk about Ted Cruz's win goes to show you -- goes to show you ...

(CROSSTALK)

SETMAYER: I know but that that speaks volumes about what happened with the story line between Rubio and Trump.

HARLOW: Right.

[03:10:02] SETMAYER: The fact it's over shadowing what Ted Cruz actually achieved, which was quite remarkable. But I'll tell you something else that hurts -- that hurts his win a little bit, too. His acceptance speech was a disaster, OK? It went on for 35 minutes. I mean, even Fox News cut away in like the Oscar music get off the stage cut away. They cut away at 32 minutes because he kept going on and on. I mean Ted Cruz thanked his cousins and like first grade teacher. It was all over the place. And that's the part about Ted Cruz that concerns some folks. He's very narrowly focused. You compare Ted Cruz to ...

(CROSSTALK)

FERGUSON: But if you're not going to --

SETMAYER: ... first with Marco Rubio, just a huge contrast.

HARLOW: Let me get Maria in here. Also what matters going forward is the money and the stamina and the fact that you have Ted Cruz who is not liked by the establishment in Washington, you have Donald Trump who if you add them both together you've got over 50 percent of the vote, not liked by them. How much money do you think goes to Marco Rubio after today?

MARIA CARDONA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think that is the big decision that establishment candidates or the establishment part of the Republican Party, the centrist part, if you will, how ever you want to call it, they have to make a decision if they really want to put their power behind somebody like Marco Rubio because if not then, you know, we're sitting here talking about scenarios for Ted Cruz to go on longer, for Marco Rubio to go on longer. I talked about how Donald Trump is leading in every single other poll in every single other state outside of Iowa. That is why those kinds of scenarios if people don't start getting out and getting out fast and consolidating behind one or two candidates other than Trump, I still think Trump can actually Trump everybody else moving forward.

(CROSSTALK

BERMAN: Hang on. We're going to come back and talk about much more in a second. We got to take a quick break here. But you know, who is leading in the polls in Iowa ...

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That's right.

BERMAN: ... until last night. So we don't know how all of this will play ...

CARDONA: Not before a week ago. Not before a week ago.

BERMAN: For the last week. We will talk more about this right after the break. We'll also talk about the Democrats because we don't know who won the Iowa caucus and we may not know through the next couple of days until Wednesday night when Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders take the stage in New Hampshire for a CNN town hall event, moderated by Anderson Cooper. What's timing? How important could this be with this race now just locked in a virtual tie? That is Wednesday night, 8:00 p.m. only on CNN.

HARLOW: Also, Ted Cruz takes Iowa. Marco Rubio could be the next story line as you have just heard. What does his success in Iowa do to Trump and do to the others moving forward? Also, Donald Trump's not used to playing second fiddle. We haven't seen him tweet all night, folks. But one of his top Iowa supporters has to say -- what they have to say may surprise you.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[03:15:03] ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN HOST, "NEWSROOM": Hello, everyone. I'm Rosemary Church and this is "CNN News Now." The peace talks for Syria are formally underway, but these are not face-to-face talks yet. Instead, the U.N. envoy is set to meet Tuesday with the government delegation seen here after meeting with opposition representatives for two hours Monday.

Britain's foreign secretary says Russian president Vladimir Putin is undermining international efforts to bring peace to Syria. At a refugee camp in Jordan, Philip Hammond told Reuters, "Russia is mainly bombing Syria's moderate opposition, which is strengthening ISIS on the ground." Russia says it's targeting a variety of militants in Syria but that the focus is on ISIS.

The World Health Organization is declaring the Zika virus a public health emergency of international concern. It can spread rapidly in the Americas including in Brazil which will host the Olympics in august. The illness has been linked to severe birth defects. But Brazilian officials say athletes and tourists who are not pregnant should still attend the games.

And that's your "CNN News Now." Straight ahead, more from Iowa and the results of the voting to choose nominees for the U.S. Presidency. You're with CNN, the world's news leader.

BERMAN: All right. 3:15 in the East. We're still waiting to figure out who won the Democratic race in the Iowa caucuses, but we do know who did not win the Republican race, Donald J. Trump. He is now zero for Iowa. Ted Cruz won, Donald Trump finished second, but he barely beat Marco Rubio.

HARLOW: Sara Murray with the Trump campaign traveling with them. Sara?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: The first voting state dealt Donald Trump a stunning blow of defeat as he lost the Iowa caucuses to Texas senator, Ted Cruz. That's despite the fact that Donald Trump drew the largest crowds in this state and his team felt confident going into the caucuses. Donald Trump promised to soldier on to New Hampshire in a speech to supporters.

TRUMP: We will go on to get the Republican nomination and we will go on to easily beat Hillary or Bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there.

MURRAY: But as Donald Trump moves on to New Hampshire, he'll face challenges not just from Cruz but also from Marco Rubio who had a surprisingly strong showing in Iowa. A couple of Trump's campaign aides tell CNN that this is the story that Marco Rubio surge and Trump will have to fend off Rubio as he moves onto the upcoming states. Donald Trump is heading back to New York where he'll catch a couple of hours of sleep at home, but then he heads straight to New Hampshire where he is holding a campaign rally on Tuesday.

Sara Murray, CNN West Des Moines, Iowa.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Sara with the Trump campaign. Thank you so much, Sara. You know what? Donald Trump I think is sleeping now, Berman, because he hasn't tweeted at all.

BERMAN: Well, he might be, and he has a whole bedroom on his plane.

HARLOW: I know. I think he's sleeping on the plane. I think he's sleeping in Trump Tower. He said in the speech tonight, he said, "I was told when I started the race in Iowa you won't finish in the top ten. And I said, but I got to spend time there. I've got to spend time there." Then we went on to say he was honored. Ben, did you see humility? That's the word I keep hearing over and over. Did you see humility on his speech?

FERGUSON: Yeah. I -- humility or shock. I'm not sure which -- what it is.

HARLOW: What did you see?

FERGUSON: I saw total disbelief and shock because he's never been in this situation forever. When he's been in charge of every situation with the media, reality TV, his branding, he's never had to really accept defeat. And even when it is defeat in business with bankruptcies, it's not my personal bankruptcies. I'm still a billionaire and I'm still an author of "The Art of the Deal." This is new territory for him and I honestly believe that if you look at the demeanor of the Trump campaign, specifically over the last week, they thought they were going to win this.

BERMAN: Absolutely.

FERGUSON: They were arrogant. They were cocky. They were condescending some of his reps on the TV. This was theirs and they thought they owned it and now they ...

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: Not only they skipped the last debate, but they actually thought it was brilliant to skip the last debate. That's why I said they have no idea what they're doing in this campaign because you do not insult Iowa voters. There's not a lot of them, but they pay attention. And they're incredibly engaged and they take their caucusing very seriously. It's not a joke to them. And when he did that and he was disrespectful, he also left the state to go to New Hampshire. If you do that 24 hours before people vote, you're not going to win.

Tara -- go ahead. Tara, do you think -- what do you think this does to Donald Trump in New Hampshire, aside from what everyone was saying, you know, this guy who says he's a winner now he has to deal with losing. Beyond that ...

SETMAYER: Right.

BERMAN: can he pivot? Can he direct his campaign in New Hampshire in a way that can get him a victory there?

[03:19:47] SETMAYER: I mean, I think so. He's pretty far ahead there, but there's -- but it's an eternity. A week is an eternity in politics. We know that old axiom. So we have another debate between now and when people vote in New Hampshire, and the ads that Ted Cruz used against Donald Trump in Iowa, they may be able to use something similar in New Hampshire. When you take his own words, people see him as vulnerable now. They may see him as a hypocrite. There are -- now you see those vulnerabilities. And listen, Donald Trump likes to win. He does not lose well, right? I mean, if they're not first, you're last. Take it from Ricky Bobby. It's like that kind of situation here with Donald Trump, right?

HARLOW: That's your gloating at 3:00 in the morning.

(LAUGHTER)

HARLOW: It's 3:20 in the morning.

SETMAYER: It's 3:00 a.m. but I thought it was apropos (ph). But no -- but seriously, for Donald Trump going into New Hampshire, there are other candidates now that see that vulnerability and Marco Rubio having that momentum. You actually have Kasich that's actually been polling halfway decent in New Hampshire quietly.

FERGUSON: I think -- yeah. He's the guy.

SETMAYER: Yeah.

FERGUSON: I think he is the x factor moving forward.

SETMAYER: That's right.

FERGUSON: And I also think the money issue moving forward is going to be very different. You had Jeb Bush spend more than $2,000 per vote in Iowa. If you think about that -- and no one's talked about that. If you're giving money to him, how do you keep giving him money if it costs $2,000 per vote?

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: I want to stop here. I want to give people breaking news in the Democratic race because there is a race that we haven't called yet.

FERGUSON: Do we have a winner?

BERMAN: No. But ...

FERGUSON: Oh. You said breaking.

BERMAN: ... but -- but we're closer.

FERGUSON: OK.

BERMAN: There's only one outstanding precinct right now. We have 1,680 precincts out of 1,681. Hillary Clinton is up by five in the delegate count. She's up by .4/10 (ph) of a percent with one precinct remaining. It says 100 percent of the precincts reporting. We have been told -- CNN has been told there's still ...

HARLOW: One missing.

BERMAN: ... one precinct outstanding. But, if this holds, unless there's a giant precinct, it could be ...

FERGUSON: What do we know at this point?

BERMAN: That Hillary Clinton will cling to a very, very ...

(CROSSTALK)

FERGUSON: Even Martin O'Malley would be so important.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Barely jumped in.

KOHN: Can I just lobby here as a voting mostly Democrat identified human being which is ...

FERGUSON: Mostly.

KOHN: You know I have my loyalty to the (inaudible) party. But for most part, wouldn't it be nice if out of this is nothing else came some transparency in the part of the Iowa caucus for Democrats because for the votes at home who don't know; whereas, the Republicans Party in Iowa released the actual numbers of voters.

HARLOW: Showed the legal ballot.

KOHN: The Democrats don't show this. And it would actually be nice, especially when it gets this close ...

BERMAN: I agree.

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: Hang on. Hang on.

HARLOW: Just one second. We want to go to Chris Moony who is live for us tonight in Des Moines. Chris, you know what precinct is the missing one, is that right?

MOONY: There's just one more county left to report and that's Polk County right here near Des Moines. Hillary Clinton at this point is still holding on to that small lead but we're still very late and we don't have the final results. We don't have a final winner. We may have one in the next -- in a very short amount of time. We'll keep you updated.

BERMAN: Is the precinct in Polk county -- Polk County us the most populous county in the state. It's where Des Moines is.

HARLOW: Right.

BERMAN: Polk County also, Hillary Clinton has had a steady lead over Bernie Sanders all night ...

HARLOW: Right. So that's absolutely what we're talking about ...

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: ... in Polk County about 7 points, yes.

HARLOW: Exactly what we're talking about earlier. Where is this county? Is it near Cedar Rapids, near all of those colleges that's going to help Sanders? Is it Polk County? Is it Des Moines that could likely help Clinton? That's where it is. Maria Cardona, to you, your thoughts.

CARDONA: I think that what the Clinton campaign was hoping before tonight is that she would squeak out a win. It looks like that's exactly what she will do and regardless of what Ben or Tara say, a win is a win, and they will be thrilled, I guarantee you, if this does holds.

(CROSSTALK)

CARDONA: Math is math and a win is a win, and they will be thrilled if this holds. And I think that, you know, going into New Hampshire, it doesn't give her huge momentum because I think, again, being fair to Bernie Sanders, he had a terrific night as well. He ran a wonderful campaign, but I do think it gives her -- I think it was you, John, who said, bragging rights of the person who won the Iowa caucuses going into New Hampshire and she can continue to push her message. But I think overall, and I think Sally said this, you know, I do think the Democrats won tonight because it is -- they are focused. They're two very strong candidates that are focused on strong messages that frankly appeal to the majority of Americans versus a party that is so divided right now where you have all these lanes that everyone is talking about.

(CROSSTALK)

FERGUSON: This is losing? I'm enjoying losing.

(CROSSTALK)

FERGUSON: I'm enjoying losing.

BERMAN: Ben is enjoying losing.

FERGUSON: I'm enjoying losing.

BERMAN: Ben is enjoying losing.

FERGUSON: I'm enjoying losing. This is really good because I feel really good about this.

(CROSSTALK)

KOHN: The Democratic candidates trounce any of the Republican contenders in any possible ...

SETMAYER: No, they do not. They do not trounce Marco Rubio.

KOHN: And excuse me, let's be clear. When we listen to what Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are doing, they're competing with each other to see who can have more compassion and do more to help the American people. Whereas, the Republicans want to do more ...

(CROSSTALK)

[03:25:09] BERMAN: Do you know what? Do you know what we're going to bring up this discussion? Right after a quick break, when maybe -- maybe the missing mystery precinct from Polk County will call us and tell us who won. Stay with us.

HARLOW: We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: All right. Breaking news in the Iowa caucuses. The Democratic side, we just learned there is one single solitary precinct that has yet to report.

HARLOW: Just one. BERMAN: It is in Polk County, which has been leaning towards Hillary

Clinton all night. But you can see the results as they stand right now, 49.9 percent for Hillary Clinton, 49.5 percent for Bernie Sanders, separated by 4/10 of a percent. Our screen says 100 percent of the precincts reporting. That is not true because there is one precinct still lost (ph).

HARLOW: Right.

BERMAN: It was 99.9999999 percent reporting.

HARLOW: We only have 1,680 not 1681.

BERMAN: Exactly. Exactly.

HARLOW: But that matters because it matters where it is and it could tip the balance in favor of perhaps Hillary Clinton. She has shown strength there. The dark blue runs Des Moines. It is Polk County that is where the missing precinct is right now, still waiting for that number. It could come at any moment. As we wait for it, let's talk about this dead heat. Our CNN senior Washington correspondent, Jeff Zeleny has more. Jeff?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[03:30:08] JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: The Iowa caucuses were good to Bernie Sanders. He may not have won an outright victory, but he declared a moral victory, an ideological victory. He heads to New Hampshire with the wind at his back and possibly a lot of money. He's known for his online fund raising. He's aides believe he will raise millions of dollars off of this, the bitterly close race with Hillary Clinton. Now, both candidates will be in New Hampshire as the results are likely still being counted in Iowa. There are some precincts still remaining.

Senator Sanders did not dwell on that. He said that Iowa simply responded to his call for a revolution. Now, this was a test of political organization. The Clinton campaign campaigned for months and months trying to build a brick and water structure. Senator Sanders used modern techniques, the modern tools through social media, got out younger voters. So this contest is now a split race for delegates. That's what the Iowa caucuses are all about here. With both candidates moving forward, the race is now down to two with Martin O'Malley out of the race, both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will appear in a CNN town hall on Wednesday to begin defining and sharpening what they both view as a very different vision of the Democratic Party.

Jeff Zeleny, CNN, Des Moines.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Jeff, thank you very much. Let's talk about it with our panel. We also have Chris Moody in Des Moines. This is a guy, Bernie Sanders, who has run 20 times for office, has won 14 times, and who some way, somehow at 74 years old is resonating in a way that has shocked all of us with young voters. Case in point, the donations, he said tonight 3.5 million donations. The average donation amount?

BERMAN: $27.

HARLOW: $27.

BERMAN: Which means among other things that a lot of donors can give a lot more money. So Bernie Sanders will not run out of money. Maria Cardona, so how is the Clinton campaign going to pivot and take him on in New Hampshire or is ...

HARLOW: And beyond.

BERMAN: ... or is the Clinton campaign going to pivot? Tell me. We have a town hall tomorrow night, Maria. We have a town hall Wednesday night in Derry, New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton walks on the stage and says what?

CARDONA: She says she hopes she will earn every vote in New Hampshire and she's going to focus on the message that she has focused on up until now, which is how she is the one who is going to be best prepared and will fight the hardest for middle class voters, for those who have been left out and that she is the one who has the best experience and knows how to do the job from day one. And, look, New Hampshire has always been a challenge for her.

HARLOW: That's nothing new, Maria, than what she has been seeing that has brought us to statistical tie.

CARDONA: Well, but so far it has been helping her in the states where she is ahead, which is the majority of them and it has helped her nationally, which she is still ahead by quite a large margin. Will that still be the case, you know, after tonight? We'll see. But I think what I was talking about earlier is that -- again, she is at her best when she is competing hard for this. And not only is she at her best when she's competing hard for this, it is better for the Democratic Party when there are two competitors out there with their messages -- with their messages that are resonating. And yes, her message is resonating out there because I think people are responding to the fact that she wants to get things done and she wants to find real solutions.

(CROSSTALK)

CARDONA: Bernie Sanders is definitely catching fire but let's remember that she is still -- she is still ahead in most places.

(CROSSTALK)

HARLOW: Hey, guys, let's talk about the fact that, you know, Bernie Sanders is quote/unquote, "catching fire," in very white states that aren't representative of the country, Iowa and New Hampshire. When you look at South Carolina, you look at this so-called fire wall for Hillary Clinton, the black vote, something that Sanders has been courting so hard across South Carolina and across the south. I just wonder, Ben Ferguson, can he do it when you have so many critical minority votes across the country? FERGUSON: Well, there's one thing that is a big thing to his advantage and that is there is now doubt around Hillary Clinton. And you have to look at the doubt for what it actually is. There are people that are doubting her. There are things that are issues now for her, whether she wants to admit it or not, not with Republicans, with Democrats. That's what Bernie Sanders has been able to do is say, "Hey, I'm the next alternative. I am a guy that's not going to be controlled. I'm not the establishment."

I think national polls honestly in this two-man race right now really don't matter. It's about momentum moving forward. And I think momentum here is pretty solid that if you're leaving, if you had to pick which train to be on, you would be on Bernie Sanders tonight. They're excited. They're more enthusiastic. They have a lot of young people willing to work with them. And that's something Hillary Clinton is going to have to overcome. I don't know if she can do it just to the town hall.

KOHN: Well, I thought ...

[03:35:01] BERMAN: Sally, there is one -- there is one thing here that sort of gets what Ben is talking about. In the entrance poll, we asked the voters who do they think is more honest and trustworthy. Bernie Sanders was at 83 percent. Hillary Clinton was 10 percent.

FERGUSON: They don't trust her.

BERMAN: That is -- that is not a gap. I mean that's like a chazzan (ph).

KOHN: Yes. I mean, look -- and it also -- again, it speaks to her deficits as much as it speaks to his strengths. I mean he is sort of this -- look, I'm telling it like I see it. I just show up. I didn't even comb my hair kind of candidate. And I have to be honest here, look, you know, Hillary's not a great candidate. I think she's a great leader. I think she has great ideas. I don't agree with her on all of her policies.

I think Bernie is making her better on her policy by making her more accountable and responsive to where our nation -- our nation as a whole, not just Democrats, are in terms of populous economic issues in the middle class, but she's not a great candidate. And it's ironic that it's taking such a really bad candidate in Bernie Sanders to show that. I mean here is a guy who is literally the swab (ph) who got to show her the political scene.

(CROSSTALK)

HARLOW: We're going ...

SETMAYER: Can I get a word in here?

BERMAN: Right after the break -- right after the break when we come back with Tara Setmayer, unplugged, unrestrained all you. First, let me plug the town hall. Anderson Cooper, Wednesday night, 8:00 p.m., Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on stage with Anderson in Derry, New Hampshire. It's a town hall event. Voters will get to ask questions. This is a big, big moment in this campaign with the -- you know, with Hillary Clinton maybe squeaking out a victory, maybe not. Still too close to call. We should know by Wednesday night. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[03:40:18] BERMAN: All right. We have breaking news. We're inching closer to an outcome ...

HARLOW: To an answer.

BERMAN: ... in the Iowa caucuses group.

HARLOW: At almost 4:00 in the morning.

BERMAN: We just got a statement from the Iowa Democratic Party chair, Dr. Andy McGuire, who writes -- we're going to split up this dramatic reading because I'm going to lose my voice. The results tonight are the closest in Iowa Democratic history. Hillary Clinton has been awarded 699.57 state delegate equivalents. Bernie Sanders has been awarded 695.49 state equivalents. Martin O'Malley has been awarded 7.68 state delegate equivalents. Uncommitted is 0.436. But listen to this, Poppy.

HARLOW: So here's what's key. The outstanding precinct that we've been telling you about all night, that one precinct in Polk County, it goes on to say, we still have outstanding results in one precinct that is Des Moines's 42nd precinct. That is worth 2.28 state delegate equivalents. So you need to do the math. You need to add it up.

FERGUSON: I have.

HARLOW: Here it is.

BERMAN: This is just in right now.

HARLOW: Can you see that?

BERMAN: If you can see this map, 699.57 for Hillary Clinton, 699.49 (ph) for Bernie Sanders. There is a difference of 4.08 state delegate equivalents.

HARLOW: So even if Sanders were to take that precinct ...

BERMAN: Every part of it, which is, you know, unlikely because they would probably split it about evenly ...

HARLOW: Right. And where it is.

BERMAN: And where it is. But even if they split -- you know, even if he took all of it, he would not get more state delegate equivalents than Hillary Clinton.

HARLOW: We should note they are not calling a winner.

BERMAN: They didn't declare a winner.

HARLOW: They are putting out the numbers. And again, there you have it. The one precinct that is missing is worth 2.28 state delegates. You have a spread right now. They're saying a delegate spread of 4.

BERMAN: It's insanely close. Maria Cardona, I mean, it's insanely close, 4.08 state delegate equivalents is not even worth getting into what a state delegate equivalent because it's just too hard to understand. But the point is Hillary Clinton has more than what you want.

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: She has more than what she wanted than Bernie Sanders has. And make Bernie Sanders says, "Oh, man, oh, man. It's so close."

HARLOW: Yes.

BERMAN: So at 3:40, we learned this.

HARLOW: Yes.

BERMAN: Your reaction?

CARDONA: I'm thrilled as I'm sure Hillary Clinton and her campaign. They expected this tonight. So it is a sigh of relief and a feeling of being thrilled at the same time. Because I do think that this -- again, she is able to go into New Hampshire sort of secure that she was able to win the first contest. New Hampshire is, like I've been saying all night, a challenge for her.

But then going into South Carolina, going into Nevada she has pretty substantial leads. These are states that look much more like the demographic of today's country, of today's United States that represent more what this country looks like. She has a large lead with African-Americans, a huge lead with Latinos. I think Bernie Sanders has done a terrific job of trying to reach out to both of those demographics, but he just doesn't have the history that Hillary Clinton has with them. And I think those southern states and then you go into Super Tuesday can start somewhat of a fire wall.

FERGUSON: I just don't know if you -- do you really use the word huge votes tonight for Hillary Clinton in lead category?

(CROSSTALK)

CARDONA: Yes.

SETMAYER: OK. I'm jumping in here.

BERMAN: Tara, you're turn. We promised you unfettered access to the airways (ph).

SETMAYER: A few things. First of all, I think it's interesting that the Clinton talking point here is that she fights best for -- you know, she's at her best when she's fighting from behind and, you know, that's where she really -- you know, how do we know that? Last time that she was from behind she lost to Barack Obama in spectacular fashion so that's not true at all. I guess you are assuming ...

(CROSSTALK)

CARDONA: It was not in spectacular fashion actually.

SETMAYER: It was spectacular fashion.

CARDONA: She got more gross (ph) than him.

SETMAYER: It doesn't matter. She lost to a relative newcomer when she was the favorite. She was the anointed one and she lost to a relative newcomer. She lost in spectacular fashion.

CARDONA: Don't rewrite history, Tara.

SETMAYER: No. I'm not rewriting history. She lost.

CARDONA: I think you are.

SETMAYER: What are you talking about, Maria? She lost.

(CROSSTALK)

SETMAYER: Listen. Listen. I'd like to spank you. You guys have been talking. Let me talk. The fact that you guys are even arguing that she -- you know, she lost kind of, sort of in 2008 goes to show you how desperate the Clinton campaign is to make sure that she doesn't come out of this looking like a loser again which she is because of how small the margin is of her victory. She is a -- she is a juggernaut. She's got $60 million in the bank or something like crazy number like that. And yet, she's only beating Bernie Sanders, a socialist, by half a percentage point in Iowa.

CARDONA: Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

[03:45:03] SETMAYER: Number two. No. Let me -- I'm going to finish. Number two. You guys are talking about how wonderful this is for Democrats and how wonderful this is for the country. We're talking about two individuals who want to add trillions of dollars to an already $19 trillion debt in this country by giving away the farm and not talking about how they're going to pay for it. That's not good for America and I welcome that in a general election debate.

CARDONA: Bring it on.

BERMAN: All right. Sally, ...

(CROSSTALK)

KOHN: Look. Wait a second. What I love is that you're somehow trying to say Hillary is -- and I'm no Hillary defender, but you're saying she spectacularly lost ...

SETMAYER: Yeah, she did. CARDONA: No.

KOHN: ... in a way spectacularly. But now you're somehow saying she is loser even though it looks like she won right in Iowa.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I mean come on. That's high for her.

(CROSSTALK)

KOHN: Yeah. But now you're redefining winning and losing to fit your own terms.

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: All right. Everyone, we got to talk one at a time else this would end early. We don't want that because they're still counting ...

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: Sally, finish your thoughts.

KOHN: Just there is like a math issue here, right? And again, when Hillary was behind in 2008, she did win more votes. It doesn't matter. The point is here, look, she won. I agree. This is not the victory they wanted. She was supposed to be the, you know, unfettered, you know, inevitable candidate. She's not. The momentum out of this comes from Bernie. But like let's hand it to the Hillary camp, a win's a win.

(CROSSTALK)

KOHN: If she won. I'm sorry. I'm not calling it.

(CROSSTALK)

HARLOW: Hillary Clinton's camp has just come out with a statement again. Again, CNN is not declaring a winner at this point in. Look how close it is. We want to wait to get that final precinct in. Hillary Clinton's camp just e-mailing out a statement saying, quote, "Hillary Clinton has won the Iowa caucus." Goes on to say, "After thorough reporting and analysis of the results, there is no uncertainty that Secretary Clinton has clearly won the most national and state delegates." That is what Clinton's camp is saying. No word from Sanders camp in response. CNN waiting to call this. We will let you know when we have more. Ben, this all happens in a state where 43 percent of Democratic caucus goers describe themselves as socialists. Let's not forget that.

FERGUSON: No. And I do think it's important. But I do think there's one thing that we have to look at tonight. There has been a big debate about trustworthiness with Hillary Clinton. There has been. Most people have been saying with just Republicans that are bringing this up. It's just Republicans that are making Benghazi and the e-mail and the server, everything an issue. The fact is Democrats walked in in these entrance polls and said, "We do not trust Hillary Clinton."

HARLOW: So who pulled that up?

(CROSSTALK)

FERGUSON: You can't -- and the thing is that you can't say that this is now just a Republican and Democrat, you know, talking point or fight. There are truly Democrats now and the majority of them in Iowa and I think moving forward this may be her biggest vulnerability is they don't trust her.

HARLOW: But you also can't say they voted on that.

FERGUSON: Well, no.

(CROSSTALK)

HARLOW: You also can't say they voted on that.

FERGUSON: It is a doubt that is actually growing and not getting smaller. She is not going to be able to control the press issue.

(CROSSTALK)

HARLOW: Can we pull up that entrance poll, guys, just to show what we're talking about.

(CROSSTALK)

FERGUSON: She hasn't been able to stop the concern that's there.

KOHN: We're going to talk about comparisons for the country as a whole. By the way, a majority of Americans have asked, a majority including Republicans would choose an economy that looks less like the United States and more like Sweden. Whatever you call it, people don't like the way our economics system is to be set up right now across the board.

(CROSSTALK)

HARLOW: That's because they don't know what we look like.

KOHN: Number two, to the point of Iowa voters as representative, a majority of Iowa votes, a Republican Iowa voters still aren't sure that Barack Obama was born in the United States. So, again, we're going to point fingers.

BERMAN: All right. That ends here. I don't know -- and on the wide margin of 2.28 state delegate equivalents. We're going to take a quick break. We're going to see if we can figure out what's going on, what's the margin here in this race. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[03:50:23] CHURCH: Hello, everyone. I'm Rosemary Church and this is "CNN News Now."

The Brazilian government says pregnant women should not travel to Brazil for the upcoming Olympics because of the risk posts by the Zika virus outbreak. The illness is suspected of causing brain damage in infants born to women infected with the virus. But Brazilian officials say athletes and tourists who are not pregnant should still come to the games in August.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (TRANSLATED): Athletes who comes here obviously they could get fever and not be able to compete. But if they aren't a pregnant woman, there is a zero risk. What I mean zero, zero in the sense of something worse.

Formal Syrian peace talks are underway in Geneva, but the two sides are not meeting directly. A U.N. Envoy is shuttling between the delegations. He is scheduled to meet with the government delegation Tuesday for a two-hour meeting with opposition delegates on Monday.

Britain's foreign secretary says Russian president Vladimir Putin is fanning (ph) Syrian civil war while visiting a refugee camp Jordan. Philip Hammond told Reuters news agency that Russia is bombing Syria's moderate opposition most of the time strengthening ISIS on the ground. Russia claims it is targeting multiple militant groups but focusing on ISIS.

To Nigeria now where the death toll from a grisly massacre has risen sharply. One official said Saturday's attack left as many as 85 people dead. Boko Haram militants torched an entire village burning people alive in their own homes.

And that is your "CNN News Now." Let's head back to CNN special coverage of the results from the Iowa caucuses.

HARLOW: All right. Welcome back. It is 3:52 a.m. here on the East Coast. And you know what, it's good we stayed up and you stayed up because we're getting some answers. We may be getting closer, closer, closing in to closing in on an answer because Berman is doing the math over here in what has been statistical dead heat on the Democratic side in Iowa. Those are the numbers we have thus far, but we want to walk you through what Dr. Andy McGuire, the head of Iowa's Democratic Party, the chair, is saying tonight, OK? Technical but very important. Quote, "The results tonight are the closest in Iowa's Democratic caucus history. Hillary Clinton has been awarded 699.57 state delegate equivalents. Bernie Sanders has been awarded 695.49 state delegate equivalents." Berman?

BERMAN: We still have outstanding results in one precinct. There's one precinct still out in Polk County. It's worth 2.28 state delegate equivalents. So here's some math, ladies and gentlemen and we'll let you reach your own conclusion. Hillary Clinton gets 699.57 state delegate equivalents, Bernie Sanders 695.49. That is a difference of 4.08 state delegate equivalents.

HARLOW: So what that means is even if Bernie Sanders were to take all of the outstanding precincts in Polk County and get 2.28 delegates, you still have a spread there that leaves Hillary Clinton in the lead. This has not been officially, officially called yet, but Hillary Clinton's camp says it is.

BERMAN: Yes. Yes. CNN is not officially calling the race because people want to check my math I think more than anything. Let me tell you something else. That's OK. You can all be ...

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: You can all be pleased. You should all be pleased with that. The bottom line here is it does look like we could be getting close to a call. The Clinton campaign, do we have that statement from the Clinton campaign?

HARLOW: We do. So let me read to you what Hillary Clinton's campaign just sent out in full. Hillary Clinton has won the Iowa caucuses after thorough reporting and analysis of results. There is no uncertainty. And Secretary Clinton has clearly won the most national and state delegates. Statistically, there is no outstanding information that could change the results and no way that Senator Sanders can overcome Secretary Clinton's advantage. That coming from Clinton's camp.

BERMAN: The only thing that's in fact (ph) that true is the word clearly in here because there's nothing clear ...

HARLOW: Yeah. Nothing clear about this.

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: But it does look like -- it does look like maybe she will emerge with a teeny, tiny victory. We don't have tons of time left. Sally, I'm going to give you last word right here. Going into New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton will get off the plane in a little bit. I suppose it's better to have a .4 percent lead ...

(CROSSTALK)

[03:55:05] KOHN: I mean, look. This is really interesting because I think this Iowa caucus is going to go down in history for two things. One is for redefining the meaning of winning and losing. No question. Donald Trump lost. I mean, he can't say he won but this is a guy who made everything about winning and he lost. On the other hand, it's hard to argue that Bernie Sanders lost because the expectations were so low that it looks like he won. So really the loser in this is the English language, which I think we've turned inside out.

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: The winner -- the winner is -- the winner is ...

HARLOW; The winner is Berman's math.

BERMAN: And democracy. Guys, thanks so much. Thanks so much. Again, stay with us because we could get the official call in the Democratic caucuses. Finally more right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: All right. Good morning. Welcome to EARLY START, everyone. I'm John Berman.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Christine Romans. It is Tuesday, February ...

MAX FOSTER, CNN HOST, "NEWSROOM": Meanwhile, the Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders campaigns are in a virtual tie, the race too close to call for either candidate.

Meanwhile, the WHO declares an international public health emergency over the Zika virus as it spreads explosion civilly in the Americas.

Thanks for joining us. I'm Max Foster in London. This is "CNN NEWSROOM."

Well, a very exciting night in the U.S. State of Iowa as voters made the nation's first pick for nominees in the 2016 presidential race.