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Coverage of Iowa Caucus. Aired 3-4p ET

Aired January 31, 2016 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:00:21] JOHN BERMAN, CNN HOST: We are live in Iowa and you can feel it all happening right now. Just a little over 24 hours from now, Iowa voters, they will caucus. They will cast the first actual votes of the 2016 presidential race.

Good afternoon, everyone. I'm John Berman here in Des Moines. The candidates, they are over the state right now hitting every last stop. They want to see every last voter they can trying to convince every last one to go to those caucuses for them. So if you like politics, if you like drama, if you are focused on the nation's future, you are in for a treat for the next hour because speaking here, Bernie Sanders, Jeb Bush, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump is on the stage right now talking.

We have live pictures of Bernie Sanders rally in Waterloo. Take a look at that. He is expected to get on that stage and be near that sign any minute. The sign doesn't move. Bernie Sanders will.

Jeb Bush just finished speaking to voters in Cedar Rapids. He has had his daughter by his side all weekend. Jeb Bush not doing well in the latest poll in this state.

Hillary Clinton will be in Council Bluffs. That's where Donald Trump is right now. She is in a very tight race with Bernie Sanders. You can see Hillary Clinton on stage. That's her daughter Chelsea Clinton on stage with the former secretary of state.

I said polls are close right now. There is a brand-new poll that has sent politicos into a frenzy this afternoon. I'm talking about the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg politics poll. Donald Trump up five points over Ted Cruz. This is the first time the Des Moines Register polls look anything like that.

As to the Democrats, Hillary Clinton is up three points on Bernie Sanders. That is awfully close. And our CNN/ORC poll of polls at the average of the five most recent Iowa polls, it shows roughly the same thing as the register on the Democratic side and roughly the same thing on the Republican side with Donald Trump is now up six points. Some consistency there.

We have coverage all across the state right now. CNN politics correspondent M.J. Lee following Donald Trump. CNN senior Washington correspondent Joe Johns is in Waterloo with Bernie Sanders. Executive editor for CNN politics Mark Preston sitting right next to me as we speak.

And before we get to the live events, the reason Mark is here, is we have breaking news, a big announcement for CNN about something that is going to happen a few days from now.

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: John, the focus right now, of course, is on Iowa and the candidates are crisscrossing the state trying to get out the last votes. But really, it doesn't stop in Iowa. The race is going to move to New Hampshire come Monday evening.

And on Wednesday evening, CNN is going to host a town hall for closing arguments for the three Democratic presidential candidates, John. We saw them do it this past Monday here in Iowa. Really well received. Chris Cuomo doing a masterful job. He is now handing the baton off to Anderson Cooper. We are going to have Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley taking questions directly from New Hampshire voters. You and I both from New England. We understand how hard those questions can be. It will take place in Dairy, New Hampshire.

BERMAN: Yes. No such thing as Iowa nice.

PRESTON: No, no, no.

BERMAN: And the question gets very tough.

Joe Biden might say this is a big, blanking deal, this town meeting Wednesday night because it will become two day after the results here. So someone is going to come out of here with some momentum. Someone is going to come out of here with ground to make up, which could make that moment on the stage crucial.

PRESTON: Absolutely. I mean, look, if they will try to - if you win here in Iowa on Monday night, they will try to use this town hall to send a message to voters all across New Hampshire that they need to win the state. Hillary Clinton has a lot of ground to make up. Right now, as we've seen from they are neck-and-neck. Bernie Sanders would try to seal the deal with New Hampshire voters. It's going to be very, very interesting.

BERMAN: Absolutely. Mark Preston, very good work helping make this happen. Thank you for being with me.

Just to remind people what we just reported, Wednesday night, a Democratic town hall in New Hampshire on CNN, 8:00 p.m. Be there.

All right. There's big news from the Bernie Sanders campaign. Just over a little over an hour ago, the Sanders campaign announced it raised $20 million in January. That's a lot of money. Was it January or the fourth quarter? I don't know if it was January or the fourth quarter, but they have been raising a lot of money. Bernie Sanders campaign raising a lot of money from small donors.

That announcement comes as Democrats begin a whirlwind day around Iowa. The first of four events right now for Bernie Sanders getting under way in Waterloo.

Our Joe Johns is there. Joe, what do you expect to see?

[15:05:01] JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Well, I've got to tell you, this is exactly what you look for on the day before the Iowa caucuses. It's a crowded room here in Waterloo, Iowa. A lot of people are turning out to see Bernie Sanders. A pretty good cross- section of his support, at least according to the polls.

I have talked to a lot of students here, as it characteristic of Bernie Sanders crowds. Many of them are from colleges in and around Iowa but also from some other places. I talked to one group that drove all the way here, about seven hours from Michigan State in Lansing, Michigan, just to volunteer. But of course, the question is, who is going to caucus for Bernie Sanders?

There are some people here in the room who say they have caucused before on the Democratic side, most of them for Obama the past two cycles. The big question, of course, is how many of these students are going to get out? Because this process is new for them and so many of those people supporting Hillary Clinton, of course, have been to this rodeo before. So, as you said, the big news, of course, $20 million.

Now, the press release that they put out, the statement that they put out a while ago, said, John, that that was for the month of January. Not sure, of course, they could be the quarter but they say it's for the month of January. Small donations, $27 or less, mostly. And that goes to their argument of electability at large for Bernie Sanders, John.

BERMAN: No, it is $20 million in January. That's a lot of money in a short period of time from a lot of small donations. So that is a very big deal.

Joe Johns in Waterloo, Bernie Sanders taking the stage there shortly. We will get back to you when he comes.

In the meantime, I want to go to Council Bluff, Iowa, the western part of the state, CNN's M.J. Lee.

Donald Trump just wrapped up an event with Jerry Falwell Jr. Awfully big to have the evangelical leader with him as he campaigns through Iowa.

M. J. LEE, CNN POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: That's right. Donald Trump has just wrapped up this campaign event here in Council Bluffs, Iowa. On the stage with him, as you mentioned, was Jerry Falwell, Jr. The prominent evangelical religious leader and head of the Liberty University. Falwell interestingly kicked off his remarks by telling a story about how Donald Trump, his limousine once got stuck, broke down, and some people helped him and a while later Donald Trump secretly helped to pay off these people's mortgages. So this was a story that Falwell said demonstrates just what a generous person Donald Trump is. I can also tell you that the full gang is here today. Melania at one

point took the stage which she doesn't do that often. And she called Donald Trump her husband quote "the best master negotiator."

I also want to tell you, of course, this is not surprising, Donald Trump is hitting Ted Cruz very hard in Iowa today. Here's what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It is so dishonest. It is so dishonest. Then he took an ad about me and he said that I'm in favor of Obamacare. My whole campaign is against Obamacare. And the only way I can fight it is I have a much bigger platform than anyone else. It's such a lie. But what he doesn't say is that he filled out a financial disclosure form, a personal financial disclosure form. And on the form, he wants to pretend he is Robin Hood. He is going to protect everybody from Wall Street, big, bad Wall Street, right. He forgot to mention that he has borrowed a lot of money at almost no interest. Anybody in this room would take the interest rate because he pays almost nothing from Goldman Sachs and from Citibank, forgot to put the two banks on that, forgot to mention it and then, of course, his biggest problem is Canada. He was born in Canada and a lot of people say he can't even be running for the election so we will find out about that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEE: Now I can tell you, John, at this point in the race, these political attacks are so important. One voter I spoke to before Trump took the stage told me that he doesn't like Ted Cruz and one of the reasons is because of questions about his Canadian birthplace. So I can tell you voters here in Iowa, they are listening.

BERMAN: Really interesting. Donald Trump clearly also listening, too, and reading the polls, M.J., because the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg politics both pointed out that the issue as to loans to Ted Cruz from Goldman Sachs, that actually is what voters find most distasteful. They care more about that, more about those loans than the whole born in Canada thing. So it was interesting to hear Donald Trump raise that point specifically today.

M.J. Lee in Council Bluffs with the Trump campaign, thank you so much.

As for Senator Cruz, he finds himself behind now in the latest polling. Five points behind in that Des Moines Register/Bloomberg politics poll. Six points behind in the latest CNN polls of poll. Roughly the same thing.

Senator Cruz right now, he is attending a Cruz in the caucus event in Des Moines City. Joined by some special guests. Don't know who that is -- that's his father, Rafael Cruz right there. Rafael is very, very big in the evangelical community, a very powerful campaigner in his own right. So Ted Cruz appearing with his father there. That's something that is interesting to see the last few days. Also with Ted Cruz there, Glenn Beck, radio host. The guy who started

the blaze and one of the Duck dynasty stars, Phil Robertson, he is there as well.

Earlier this morning, I should rode down the elevator with Ted Cruz and his family in our hotel this morning. Before even that Ted Cruz attended church with his family. Ted Cruz said he was praying for all the candidates. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[15:10:29] SEN. TED CRUZ (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It was one of the things that the pastor asked is to pray for any who are your opponents and, indeed, I'm lifting up the prayers for all of the candidates who are running, that God's blessing and peace, lovely promise (ph).

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Great to be here with your family?

CRUZ: It is wonderful to be here with my family.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: All right. I want to talk more about this. Joining us is CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein. He is also the editorial director of "the National Journal." Also joining us again, CNN political analyst John Avlon.

Ron, let me start with you. Praying for politics.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. You know, it is funny because the Cruz campaign yesterday said they are praying for snow actually tomorrow. Look, because I mean, you know, the dynamic is very similar on both sides here. You have in Sanders on the Democratic side and then Trump on the Republican side. Candidates are doing very well with irregular caucus partisans. People not voted before.

The bigger the turnout, the better it is likely to be for both Sanders and for Trump. So the Cruz campaign who is in the Clinton position of relying most of people who have done this before, they said we are gathering all of our pastors to pray for snow on Monday.

BERMAN: Actually, they want a smaller turnout.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, they want a small turnout.

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I don't think a snow dance is really the most practical got and most technique. But you know, what is fascinating also behind this, you saw real congruence between the CNN poll of polls and the Des Moines Register poll that came out yesterday. You know, Cruz is in the strong second, yes. But in early December, he was in the lead. He was up to 40 percent. So that is a significant fall of 15 percent over a pretty short period of time. So those are the real headwinds the Cruz campaign is confronting here in Iowa and you've got to deal with that as well as a hope for a surge. BROWNSTEIN: You know, and one thing that is really important here is

the way Trump has caught Cruz, the arguments he has made and particular the constituencies that he has turned. You know, Iowa historically, the winner of Iowa has been the favor of evangelical Christians. That is what Ted Cruz thought has going to be. He has gone about it the historic way. He (INAUDIBLE) organized in churches. But has happened, John, as I have written about, is Donald Trump's appeal to blue collar Republicans is extending across the religious boundary. And while Cruz is winning among college educated evangelicals, Trump is winning among blue collar evangelicals, not only in Iowa but also in South Carolina in the latest polls. And if he can sustain that strength among blue collar evangelicals, he can threaten not only here but all across the south and the border states, states that Cruz is not counting on.

BERMAN: And we are looking at Donald Trump right there signing autographs right there. The celebrity factor for Donald Trump has always been a big thing. Would you think that he would be campaigning by himself but, no, he's there with Jerry Falwell Jr., John. It's important for him to hit this evangelical thing hard.

AVLON: It absolutely is because well, you know, evangelical voters are not a model. Even here in Iowa, it is still a sizeable chunk, more than 30 percent. And as Ron said, that's the key to victory for Santorum last time and Huckabee before him.

But the latest fairly crowded, right, Ben Carson's support among (INAUDIBLE) has been based on a decade long courtship of evangelicals. So Donald Trump bringing out his Jerry Falwell endorsement on a Sunday morning here in Iowa, really designed to divide and gain as many as they can out of the evangelical cohort. It maybe because it is self- reported bigger than people who are simply devout but it is splendid and Trump is not going to get round any cohort.

BROWNSTEIN: Although I would say that where Donald Trump is making inroads among evangelicals are not among the voters who are most motivated by social issues. And that's part of the problem that Cruz has, his response to Trump's inroads are double down and emphasize social issues. New York values, you can't trust them on abortion. You can't trust them gay marriage. In fact, it's probably not the issues that are allowing him to make those gains. It's more immigration trade, the other issues that are working with non- evangelicals blue collar Republican.

AVLON: And this is an important thing that does not get enough attention. You know, with Iowa, if you look at the number one issues for Iowa voters, likely caucus goers, social issues are not at the top of that ticket. It's the economy, it's anxiety about America and exceptionalism, it's, you know, immigration. Social issues are not top tier issues, even among evangelicals. So that traditional play, the idea that you're going to do a social issue play and necessarily win the evangelical vote, that doesn't seem to be coming true and that is certainly is evident of Trump's support of the state right now.

BERMAN: John Avlon, Ron Brownstein, Donald Trump there is shaking hands at the end of the event her. He goes on to more events later on. Fascinating to see. We have a lot of activity today here in Iowa as the candidates really go out there and almost beg for voters to show up to the caucus.

CNN, the place to be for complete coverage of the Iowa caucuses. We're live all day today. We'll be live virtually all and we're all day and night tomorrow as the people of Iowa cast the first actual votes of the 2016 presidential race.

And don't forget the big news we just announced it right here. Democratic town hall in New Hampshire hosted by CNN. That's Wednesday night. So people here in Iowa, they vote Monday. Wednesday, a town hall in Iowa hosted by Anderson Cooper, 8:00 p.m. That is in the town of Dairy. Don't miss a thing.

We'll be right back.

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[15:18:21] BERMAN: All right, John Berman in Des Moines. Just one day away from the Iowa caucuses. And I am joined by two of the most important people in the state, the first actual voters who have on the set with us today, the people who will decide what happens here. She's a real estate agent, a mother of two, a registered Republican raising a family right now but he's a criminal defense attorney, a father, a Democrat. You can see they don't get along in politics.

Joining me now is Betsy and Nick Sarcone.

Nick, you're a Democrat.

NICK SARCONE, DEMOCRAT VOTER: Correct.

BERMAN: And you're a Republican?

BETSY SARCONE, REPUBLICAN VOTER: Yes, always have been.

BERMAN: You are supporting?

B. SARCONE: I'm supporting Marco Rubio.

BERMAN: And you are supporting?

N. SARCONE: Hillary Clinton.

BERMAN: How many times have you been called by the Marco Rubio campaign?

B. SARCONE: Probably five or six now. I became decided about two weeks ago when he went to one of his events. So I have had all of the campaigns call me as well.

BERMAN: So how many calls have you say you received in total?

B. SARCONE: Probably 15 to 20. It's more -- it's been really heavy on the emails and the direct mail this year. More so than phone calls for me. BERMAN: So you say two weeks ago, Marco Rubio. When did you decided

Hillary Clinton?

N. SARCONE: I have been Hillary Clinton supporting since April.

BERMAN: Since April. And how long have you been contacted by the Clinton campaign?

N. SARCONE: Actually, so I haven't been contacted in a robo call but we have a great field organizer. His name is (INAUDIBLE), the south side organizer. So he has been in contact with me probably weekly since it started.

BERMAN: That's real organization.

N. SARCONE: Real organization, yes.

BERMAN: So, you know, outsiders come in to Iowa and they look at the whole caucus system and it looks like this big, giant, complicated puzzle. Take me inside, first, the Republican caucus because that's easier.

B. SARCONE: Yes. You go in and I mean, you just write down on the ballot who you want, count the ballots. It's pretty simple.

[15:20:00] BERMAN: Have you ever seen people change their mind from the last minute inside there?

B. SARCONE: Not that I know of. It's less vocal than on the Democratic.

BERMAN: All right. The Democratic side, it's a mess.

N. SARCONE: Yes. I mean, it is a little more difficult. I wouldn't say it's a mess, we go in. And initially, we have to do some party business. And then when the party business has taken care of, there are speeches that are made to persuade the caucus goers at who to vote for and then we break off into usually quarters of the room for who we are supporting. Then there is a count to determine who is viable. You have to meet 15 percent of the people at the caucus to be viable. Those people that are not viable can go to the undecided and there's another round of making the pitch for who, you know, come to our side, you know, support our candidate. We break off again and we continue to do that until all candidates, the left, are viable.

BERMAN: You ever convinced anyone? Have you ever twisted an arm yourself to make?

N. SARCONE: Yes. In 2004, I caucused for John Kerry and we had -- there were a lot of democratic candidates that year. And so, we had a fair amount of people that were not viable and so we were able to go around and talk one on one and convince a lot of people.

BERMAN: You are going to twist some arms tomorrow night?

N. SARCONE: If I need to. BERMAN: Ever try to twist that arm right there?

B. SARCONE: He tries. It doesn't work.

N. SARCONE: All the time.

BERMAN: How does that work, the whole split family thing, Republican first the Democrat?

B. SARCONE: Yes. You know, we both grew up in politically active families. And I knew what I was getting myself into. I think he knew as well. What do you think?

N. SARCONE: I mean, we follow politics. We like politics. We watch the debates together. And I think now, more than anything, we try and find some common ground just so that we can get along during the campaign season.

BERMAN: Just last question on Marco Rubio because you are a supporter right now. There is this idea that maybe he is getting some momentum. Is that something you are seeing?

B. SARCONE: Absolutely. I felt like he is -- for me was, you know, I'm not as extreme as some of the other viewpoints and I appreciate that. You know, he is just a light bulb candidate. He is an everyday guy. And I'm so - I do. Now that I'm vocal about my support of him, I hear a lot of people coming out of the woodwork saying, we're Marco, too. We are Marco, too.

BERMAN: Typically you say you got 15 to 20 phone calls. Like you know, right behind my mother that much. That's a lot of communication right there.

B. SARCONE: Yes.

N. SARCONE: Feeling the love. Trump called me this morning.

BERMAN: All right. Betsy and Nick Sarcone, thank you so much.

I want to go I think to Waterloo, Iowa right now. Bernie Sanders, someone that neither of you are supporting. He is holding an event there and he is talking about his remarkable fundraising hall in January, $20 million. Let's listen.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And your GQ outfit will certainly win you millions of votes, but how are you going to raise money to compete effectively and that is a very legitimate question. While we thought about it for about one-tenth of a second and we decided that we were for the going to have a super PAC.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

SANDERS: And the reason for that is not complicated. We do not represent the interests of Wall Street, corporate America, the drug companies, millionaires and billionaires. We don't represent their interests. We don't want their money. So we were going to do it, we decided to do it without a super PAC.

Now yesterday, my opponent announced that she had raised some $45 million for her super PAC. We made the announcement, of course, that we had raised zero dollars from our super PAC. And here's what we have also announced and it is something that I think I never would have believed possible when we began this campaign. And we said we were not going to have a super Pac, but we needed to raise money, we just reached out to middle class working families and we said, if you want real change in this country, if you want to be part of a political revolution, we need your help. And this is what has happened in the last nine months, which honest to God is beyond my wildest imagination. And in the last nine months we have received $3.2 million individual contributions.

(APPLAUSE)

SANDERS: That is more individual contributions than any candidate in the history of the United States up until this point in a campaign. And while some candidates boast about super PAC events, let me tell you what I am boasting about and what I am very proud of. Our average contribution is $27.

(APPLAUSE)

[15:25:13] SANDERS: In other words, to paraphrase Abraham Lincoln, this is a campaign of the people, by the people and for the people

(APPLAUSE)

SANDERS: And what makes this campaign different than other campaigns? It's not just our progressive agenda, the most progressive agenda, obviously out there. But more significantly I think is what I am telling you and telling everybody in America. And that is that no president, not Bernie Sanders or anybody else can do it alone. That, in fact, if we are to bring about the changes that most of us want, if we are ought to rebuild a disappearing middle class --

BERMAN: All right. You're listening to Bernie Sanders in Waterloo, Iowa. One of his events around the state today, just announcing to the crowd there a remarkable fundraising haul for the month of January. $20 million and not just that, he said the average contribution is $27. That is low the reason that is so important is that it means he can raise more money from those very same people. They have a lot more room before they hit the contribution limit. Who would have thought that Bernie Sanders, one of the most prolific fund- raisers in this campaign year.

We are going to be hearing a lot more from Senator Bernie Sanders and a lot more from Hillary Clinton this week. We just got the news, CNN is hosting a town hall in New Hampshire, Wednesday night, just two nights after the voting here in Iowa. This town hall in Dairy, New Hampshire moderated by Anderson Cooper. A big deal. Someone is going to come out of Iowa with momentum. Someone is going to come out of Iowa with ground to make up and they will all be on the stage with Anderson at 8:00 p.m. on Wednesday.

We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:30:46] BERMAN: One day away from actual voting in the state of Iowa. John Berman here in Des Moines.

The candidates, they are everywhere this afternoon. We are going to take a live look right now at an event for Ted Cruz in Iowa City, radio star Glenn Beck up on the stage right now voicing his support from Ted Cruz. A poll just out. Has Ted Cruz trailing. He has fallen behind Donald Trump, in a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg politics poll, down five points. This is a poll that he led for over a month.

The trend line, not what the Cruz campaign wants to see but does he have an advantage when it comes to getting voters to the polls?

Let's bring in Mark Preston, CNN's executive editor of politics and Republican strategist Margaret Hoover, a CNN contributor to discuss all of what is going on right now.

And Margaret, let me start with you because the Cruz campaign has sworn to all of us for so long that they have the best organization. And they say, you know what, it's not just them. Every campaign tells that the Cruz campaign has the strongest organization here.

MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: They do. There's no doubt that. And what we also know is the level of intensity that they have for their candidate that is also incredibly high. They are devoted and they are committed to Ted Cruz. And they are going to turn out. Nobody doubt Ted Cruz's supporters are going to turn out.

What we don't know is, are all the Trump people is going to turn out. And they also have a significant ground game here. I mean, the guy who is running the Trump campaign ran Santorum on the ground four years ago. So there is expertise on the grassroots level for both of those campaigns. So, you know, it's a matter of how many people turn out and if it's that 135 number or higher, you think it's a Trump night. If it's 135 or lower - and by the way, that's 135,000 Republican caucus goers. Then it looks like it will be Cruz night.

BERMAN: They are fighting a top trend, the Cruz campaign is right now, Mark. How do you that? How do you battle this notion that is out there lingering that they peaked too early?

PRESTON: Well, listen. I mean, we have never been in a campaign like this where a Donald Trump type of candidate has sucked every bit of oxygen out of the room, not only on the Republican side but the Democratic side. Really, I mean, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton having their own troubles themselves on the campaign trail trying to get their message out. I think the Ted Cruz folks are frustrated by the Donald Trump phenomenon. But, in many ways, they are kind of lucky. And here is the reason why.

Is that there's nobody else in that conservative lane that has been able to rise up to where Ted Cruz is right now. So he is sitting in that lane by himself. And even if he does lose here in Iowa, if we are to believe that Trump gets over 135,000 folks that come out, which means there will be enough Trump supporters, Cruz still does well here and that could push him into New Hampshire doing OK. But his play is to go down south, John.

BERMAN: If we can, I want to throw the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg politics poll back up on the screen because there is a number here that I want to take note of right now which is equally remarkable to everything else we have been talking about. Jeb Bush, two percent.

HOOVER: You know, that's an extraordinary number as well in that Iowa poll? If you look at who people didn't like, unfavorability, Jeb Bush's unfavorability, that number was higher than Donald Trump. And Donald Trump, by the way, has people who love him and people who hate him. But Jeb Bush's numbers were upside down even more than Donald Trump's were. So this is a candidacy that never took off and is never going to take off.

PRESTON: And what's amazing about that is that George W. Bush, who was not liked necessarily by Democrats or independents, was still beloved by Republicans and had George W. Bush perhaps played a bigger role maybe here in Iowa to tout his brother's candidacy, things could have been different. But I so think that Donald Trump's attacks on Jeb Bush of having low energy and not a fighter were very, very effective.

BERMAN: Anyone, Margaret, last question in that group, you know, the 10 percent and lower group that will have an impact in this race as it goes forward?

HOOVER: Look. Rand Paul has his supporters and they will continue to be his supports. And they will come in. He may have a fourth place finish here. It will be interesting to see who gets fourth place. It looks like it is Chris Christie or Rand Paul, although Carson is there. But Carson supporters again are Carson supporters. They are not going anywhere else. They are in Carson's lane. But I don't think Carson having a long term experience in the Republican field going forward. Rand Paul will because he had such - he is the libertarian candidate on the Republican side and he will continue to be so.

[15:35:02] BERMAN: All right, Margaret Hoover and Mark Preston, great to have you here with us. So fascinating, just one day away right now.

We were talking about Jeb Bush with two percent of the polls. He is speaking at an event right now in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Let's listen in for one second.

He just wrapped up. He is shaking hands right there. He is out there on the campaign trail. He is working very, very hard and he hopes to have some kind of shot in New Hampshire. We'll see how far that goes.

More coming up. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [15:38:41] BERMAN: Welcome back. John Berman in Des Moines.

You are looking at live pictures here of an event for Hillary Clinton in Council Bluffs, Iowa. She will be speaking to voters there within the next half hour. CNN just learned by the way, she will be picking up an endorsement from a key state representative in Iowa right there. He will be joining Hillary Clinton on stage. That event kicks off in just a few minutes.

Meanwhile, here the Clintons are taking some incoming on the issue of her emails from vice president Dick Cheney right now. With an interview exclusively with CNN, Dick Cheney said that the emails raise very serious questions about Hillary Clinton's judgment and as her ability to be president, he says, of the United States.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DICK CHENEY, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think it's very serious. I have never understood why she had the separate server she did in the garage or wherever it was. Why would you want to do that? Why not use the regular system that is set up there and established for everybody. And certainly senior officials of the state department and defense department, the White House and so forth that ran in to all of these requirements when you get your clearances. We used to have, when we were there, it wasn't quite as up to date as it is today in terms of technology, but we had a basket outside the door to the situation room, or any electronic gear had to go in that basket, you know, cell phone, a pager, whatever it might be. You didn't take it into the room because it could conceivably be reversed engineered or in some fashion threaten the security about we are talking about around the table, this constantly something that you are aware of all the time. And I don't know why she ever started in the first place to have a separate account for all of her emails. It's never been explained, as far as I can tell. So I think there's a very serious problem here and it does raise questions about her suitability to be commander in-chief.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[15:40:47] BERMAN: We will talk more about this.

Joining me now, CNN political commentator, former Hillary Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle. Also here, CNN political commentator, for South Carolina house representative Bakari Sellers.

Bakari, you know, we were joking yesterday that nothing can hurt John Kasich, you know, in a Republican caucus primary more than the "New York Times" endorsement. You can say the opposite from harsh words from Dick Cheney and it actually could help her in a Democratic primary.

BAKARI SELLERS, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: You know, I was just thinking. I think most Democrats and most Americans question Dick Cheney's judgment. I mean, we got into wars because of Dick Cheney's judgment. And so, I think this actually will give her a boost. What this shows is that there are more people piling on Hillary

Clinton and that is the narrative. All of these people are piling on me. They are piling on me. They are throwing these punches because they are afraid that I'm going to be the next president of the United States.

BERMAN: Well, that's Dick Cheney. Someone else said something about the emails today in a way he hasn't said it before and that was Bernie Sanders, you know. There was a Democratic debate where Bernie Sanders got off in the stage and said, you know, America is sick and tired of hearing about the damn emails. Today, he didn't say that. Today what he said is he said he thinks it is a serious issue and he wants to let the legal thing play out. But he is talking about it, Patti, in a very different way. How much of an impact will that have?

PATTI SOLIS DOYLE, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: You know, I think Bernie Sanders is inching closer and closer every day to a regular politician. He has based his candidacy so far as this not politics as usual, as this ideological, you know, candidate and as the race gets tightened, he is getting closer and closer to an everyday politician and I think that's not good for him. So clearly, he is feeling the heat as close in Iowa and he thinks he can do better if he attacks Hillary Clinton. And that's, you know, politics as usual.

SELLERS: This isn't new, though.

DOYLE: Right.

SELLERS: I mean, you know, the Democrats back in L.A., we were at each other's throats. I know Patti and I were on different sides. So this type of politics isn't new by any stretch. But yes, this is rare territory for Bernie Sanders.

BERMAN: It's interesting to see because both candidates have been very careful. They have been dancing around each other for a long time. And yes, there have been moments where it gets, you know, nasty here and there but brutally negative. And one of the reasons is, is that both candidates have very high favorability ratings among Democratic voters. So they have to be careful. So Bernie Sanders you say is getting closer to being a regular politician but Hillary Clinton, too. They have been careful. Bill Clinton, very careful about how hard he wants to hit Bernie Sanders.

SELLERS: Well, I think there were some missteps in 2008 with the way they attacked Barack Obama and help galvanized more support for Barack Obama. And I think that lessoned have been learned. I mean, this is not the same campaign by any stretch.

DOYLE: And we are also in Iowans. There is a thing called Iowanize. Iowans don't like, you know, negative attack. They don't like, you know, mean tactics. They like to be nice. So, you know, I think you may see it change once we get into Super Tuesday.

SELLERS: We're coming up on South Carolina as you know.

DOYLE: South Carolina is --. All bets are off. SELLERS: All bets are off on both sides. A Republican primary and

Democratic primary. It's a full contact sport.

BERMAN: It gets a lot less nice in a hurry. But I was at a Bernie Sanders event last night. You know, 3800 people. A lot of young people. And you see passion there. So you can see why the Clintons have to be very careful because you can't -- if Hillary Clinton manages to pull through and win this, she cat upset those who actually have passion and energy in this campaign. And Bernie Sanders right now is the one where that passion and energy is going, maybe not the most votes but the most passion.

DOYLE: I agree. You know, Bernie Sanders' candidacy has really brought a lot of excitement and enthusiasm no this race and that's a good thing.

BERMAN: And a lot of money. My god.

(CROSSTALK)

SELLERS: I mean, his fund-raiser has been the most surprising thing. I know people talk about, you know, mobilizing all of these voters and all of this and that in the third. But his fundraising paralysis is something that I don't think anybody expected this. That was an awesome call.

DOYLE: And you know what that mean is, he is not going anywhere anytime soon. He has got the money to compete not only in Super Tuesday but beyond. And he is going to do it.

SELLERS: Very, very good for Democrats. Very good for Democrats.

BERMAN: Buy a warm jacket and stock up on food because you're going to be watching this race for a long, long time.

Patti Solis Doyle and Bakari Sellers, thank you so much for being with us.

Next, reaction from the Clinton campaign to these comments by Bernie Sanders, maybe even the comments from Dick Cheney. Hillary Clinton senior's spokesperson joins us live, next.

And do not forget, in just four days, a democratic town hall in New Hampshire. So we will be out Iowa barely like a minute and then we have town hall in New Hampshire with the Democratic candidates, Martin O'Malley, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on the same stage with Anderson Cooper 8:00 p.m. Wednesday night here on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:48:56] BERMAN: All right. John Berman in Des Moines just one day to go before the Iowa caucuses.

Senator Bernie Sanders, he has an event right now in Waterloo, Iowa. We have pictures of the senator on stage. That campaign just announced he raised $20 million in the month of January. Hillary Clinton, she is in Council Bluffs, Iowa. We saw her on stage with Chelsea Clinton just moments ago. All of the candidates out working very hard.

Joining me now from New York, Karen Finney, Senior spokesperson for the Clinton campaign.

Karen, thank you so much for being with us. First, let me just ask you about the Bernie Sanders fundraising haul, $20 million in the month of January. Do you know how much you raised in January yet?

KAREN FINNEY, SENIOR SPOKESPERSON FOR THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN: We haven't actually put our numbers out yet so I don't want to spoil the surprise. But, look, we always said this was going to be a competitive race and clearly, you know, Senator Sanders has, you know, had fundraising totals before. But look, what it comes down to, at the end of the day -- and I know you've been talking about this at this hour. Tomorrow it is all about getting out your caucus goers, making sure they know where they are going, take a few friends with them in the car and caucus. I mean, that's really what it comes down to at the end of the day, is can you get your people out.

[15:50:12] BERMAN: You said you didn't want to spoil the surprise. But do you think it's going to be more than $20 million you January?

FINNEY: You know what, John, I'm just going to leave it at that. And like I said I don't want to spoil a surprise.

BERMAN: It'll be a surprise one way or the other, I suppose. Maybe it'll be a surprise for you this morning the language that Bernie Sanders chose to use on the issues surrounding Secretary Clinton's emails. You'll remember at the first Democratic debate, Bernie Sanders famously said he was sick and tired of hearing about Hillary Clinton's emails, you know. They had a moment there. He seemed to be putting the issue aside. This morning on TV, Bernie Sanders called the emails a very serious issue. Your take on that change of tone?

FINNEY: Well, it was sure disappointing. I mean, particularly given that Senator Sanders has, you know, said from the beginning, he wasn't going to run a negative ad. And he, you know, broke his word on that and has run a negative ad. He, you know, that he is making this more personal. I mean, this is, you know, not the kind of campaign that I thought he said he was going to run and we're certainly trying to stay focused on talking about the issues that are important to Iowans and talking about there are real differences and I think is absolutely something where, you know, there should be a conversation when we are talking about, you know, plans whether it is healthcare or Wall Street or equal pay. I mean, you name it. But I think this kind of personalization, I mean, look, it is coming down to the wire. It's going to be a close race. So, I mean, as your previous guests were saying, I guess, you know, that's politics. And I think that's what we're seeing here as things get a little bit tighter on senator Sanders. You know, he has had to, in recent days, walk back a number of different statements. I mean the more scrutiny, there's more scrutiny on his health care plans. There are some who say the math is just not adding up there.

BERMAN: Karen?

FINNEY: Yes?

BERMAN: Hillary Clinton herself has said she wished she did the email thing differently. There is an investigation going on right now. There's a process to turn them over. He just said it's a serious issue in the legal process should play out. So how is that personal?

FINNEY: Well, I think we're talking about two different things here. I mean, one, as you pointed out, he said people are sick of your damn emails, during a debate, which sort of sent a signal that he wasn't really going to talk about it or didn't really think it was relevant and then kind of, as you pointed out, changed his tone a bit today. So that's sort of on one set.

And on the other hand, you know, absolutely, mean Secretary Clinton, I mean, she said it, reiterated it this morning, there is a review process ongoing by the justice department. You know, we certainly talked about those 22 emails that were discussed on Friday as being held back by the state department. We very quickly put out a statement to make it clear that we think those emails should be released, even in a highly redacted form. Because again as secretary believes that in transparency and releasing those emails and letting people have a view into her tenure as secretary of state, is a good thing to do.

BERMAN: Karen, you accused the Sanders campaign of now being more negative than they promised they would be. They say the same thing about you guys. They talk bed about that the fact that you say that he made statements against the Planned Parenthood, for instance. I'm hearing a lot about that from inside the Clinton world. And the Sanders people say, hey wait a minute here, you know, he has one of the strongest abortion rights voting records in the Senate.

FINNEY: You know what, John, I would say to that though, it is not just - I mean, he actually said, I mean, he was on a different cable network that I won't mention, and actually did attack, and it was said in the form of an attack around the human rights campaign, and the planned parent action fund, this is just after they had endorsed Hillary Clinton. I certainly understand if he was disappointed not to receive these endorsements. You know, the voting record, that's great. And no one is suggesting that he hasn't had a strong --

BERMAN: How is that an attack, he said they were an establishment.

FINNEY: They called them the establishment. Well, these are people though - you know, here is the thing, I think the way it was said, the inference was certainly felt like an attack. And you know, John, the other thing I would point to is that a lot of folks felt like it was attack, not just folks from Planned Parenthood action fund and human rights campaign and (INAUDIBLE), pro-choice America. But a lot of folks at grass roots were really offended by those comments.

So I just -- I want to point out that, you know, again, it's not just me saying it, it's what he says and it's what the folks inside these organizations have said. And then you did see him kind of walk those comments back.

And look, I want it make this point because I think it is really important. It is great he has a strong voting record. But at end of the day when Planned Parenthood action said, who is the person who is going to be a leader, they chose Hillary Clinton. In part, I mean, let's remember here, she also has been very vocal about the need to go after the height amendment. That's very important for those of us who are strongly pro-choice and care about these issues.

We had not heard that kind of argument from senator Sanders. We actually, in his health care plan, women were not initially included. I mean, he said everybody. But again when we were talking about women's health care, as a woman, I can tell you, I want to hear the specifics from the person that I'm going to trust to protect my rights as a woman and on my health care.

BERMAN: Karen?

FINNEY: Yes.

BERMAN: Karen Finney who is in New York. Thanks so much for talking with us. Been out on the trail, seeing both Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton, making the closing arguments over these last few days. Just one more day to go until actual voting here. Thanks so much, Karen.

FINNEY: Thanks, John.

BERMAN: We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:59:32] BERMAN: Iowa is the place to be. It is all happening right here. Just a little bit more than 24 now, the first actual votes of the 2016 presidential race.

Good afternoon, everyone. I'm John Berman here in Des Moines.

And if you like politics, if you like drama, if you like political theater, you are going to get a lot of it. You are in for a treat because speak live this hour, Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton. We have some live pictures and event with Hillary Clinton. She is just about to speak to voters in Council Bluffs Iowa. Chelsea Clinton is up there talking a short time ago. Hillary Clinton in the latest poll, the tiny little lead over Bernie Sanders.