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Democratic Town Hall; New CNN Poll; Falwell Endorsement; Democratic Debate. Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired January 26, 2016 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[14:00:18] BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, everyone. Thanks for being with me today. I'm Brooke Baldwin. You're watching CNN.

It is the final week before the Iowa caucuses. The candidates have just six more days to convince voters to show up and pick them. The three Democratic candidates making a huge push last night in Iowa on CNN on full display, sharp differences, pointed attacks and more personality than really we've seen in the more traditional debate. Here are some of the highlights.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRIS CUOMO, MODERATOR: How you feeling a week out?

MARTIN O'MALLEY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm excited.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My wife told me to button my coat, but I think I'm too fat, so.

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We are all, on the Democratic side, having a spirited debate about the issues we care about.

SANDERS: The most significant vote and issue regarding foreign policy that we have seen in this country in modern history was the vote on the war in Iraq. Hillary Clinton voted for the war in Iraq.

CLINTON: Well, first of all, I have a much longer history than one vote, which I've said was a mistake.

SANDERS: Experience is important, but judgment is also important.

CLINTON: I think the American public has seen me exercising judgment in a lot of other ways.

O'MALLEY: I am the only one of the three of us who has a track record, not of being a divider, but of bringing people together to get meaningful things done.

CLINTON: I have a really long history of taking on all kinds of inequality. And when I went to Beijing in 1995 and said, human rights were women's rights and women's rights were human rights, that was a statement about inequality.

SANDERS: We'll raise taxes, yes, we will. But also let us be clear, Chris, because there's a little bit of disingenuity (ph) out there. We may raise taxes, but we are also going to eliminate private health insurance premiums for individuals and for businesses.

CLINTON: You have to have somebody who is a proven, proven fighter.

SANDERS: If you look at my record in terms of fighting for women's rights, I think there are very few members of Congress who have a stronger record. It's 100 percent lifetime.

O'MALLEY: Well, you know what I believe is the biggest issue that I think you should be concerned about as a young person who has more time on this planet than I do, and that is climate change.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Which of our previous presidents has inspired you most and why?

CLINTON: Sorry, President Obama. Sorry, Bill. Abraham Lincoln.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: All right, plenty to discuss here. Let me bring in Politico's chief political correspondent Glenn Thrush and Margie Omero, Democratic strategist and pollster. Her husband works on the Bernie Sanders campaign but she is unaffiliated.

Welcome to both of you.

GLENN THRUSH, CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, POLITICO: Great to be here.

BALDWIN: Margie, to you first. You know, watching the town hall last night, who and what really stood out for you?

MARGIE OMERO, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I think you saw both - both Clinton and Sanders try to draw real sharp contrasts with the others. I think the format was really - was very warm. I mean it was a way of really talking to voters, very much mirroring the Iowa caucus dynamic itself. I'm not sure, in the end, does it really change a lot of voters, but it is good to have this last final moment where the candidates can really try to highlight some of their real differences.

BALDWIN: I mean how nice was that, to be able to hear from the different candidates by themselves, you know, answering questions directly from the voters. I thought it was - I thought it was awesome and Chris did a great job.

You, Glen, we talked a lot about you yesterday and your fantastic interview with the president. And most definitely, I'm sure as you were listening last night, some lines being echoed almost verbatim by Hillary Clinton on stage. Here's a piece of that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CUOMO: He says also in there you get undue criticism. And he says, and by the way, I have some regrets about my campaign and some of the things we did. Was that surprising? CLINTON: Yes, that was surprising. You know, I really appreciated him

saying that because he said that - he had that great line, which I love. I think he said something like, you know, she had to do - he said, I was like Fred Astaire and she had to do everything I had to do only she was Ginger Rogers doing it backwards in high heels. And I thought that was a really - a very sweet remark.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: I mean that was one of the great lines in your interview with the president. And here you - here you go, boom, on stage from, you know, Hillary Clinton. What did you make of that?

THRUSH: Well, first of all, I feel like a peacemaker. I haven't felt this way since I mediated disputes between my parents, right?

BALDWIN: Nice work.

THRUSH: No, I was really - look, I was really surprised. You know, I was asking him a set of general questions. I sat down with him to talk about '08. He's extremely nostalgic. You know, he kind of wants to suit up and jump back into the game a little bit. But I was really surprised by sort of the disproportionate amount of praise that he heaped on Hillary Clinton. And he spoke about her as sort of a vanquished competitor in a really sentimental way and expressed some regret about criticizing her. And I was told even before she went on stage last night that she was really personally gratified by this.

[14:05:25] And, remember, we talk a lot about voters. We talk a lot about the advertising and issue climate. The most important climate in one of these races as you come to a close is between the candidate's ears. How they feel about things. And I think you could really see last night on stage that she seemed genuinely buoyed by this and really encouraged. Gave her a little shot of energy at the end here.

BALDWIN: He was definitely not gushing over Bernie Sanders. You asked, you asked again, you followed up and even we just - there's a CNN Politics write that's just been published talking about how even Bernie Sanders himself is saying, yes, there's no way I'm going to hit that same sort of market that President Obama did in Iowa in '08.

On Bernie Sanders, Margie, and to you. You know, once again, on a, you know, big stage, he's, you know, defining Democratic socialism, addressing one of his biggest critiques, you know, how he would pay for his different plans, you know, Medicare for everyone, for example. You heard him there in the town hall saying he will raise taxes. Listen, this is someone who's been on the trail for six months. We are six days away from Iowa. And the fact that he still is out there trying to define what socialism is, is that not a problem?

OMERO: Well, I think that there's a difference between the term, which people have a reaction to, and the ideas. I think a lot of the ideas that he talks about are very popular. If you look at the CNN poll of a recent - the poll you just released I think yesterday or today, it showed that Clinton has the advantage on a huge number of issues over Sanders and Sanders or Clinton are tied on this mention of represents the values of Democrats like you. So I think, you know, a lot of Democrat - and, you know, one poll showed 43 percent of Iowan Democrats say they identify as a socialist. So I think there's, you know, a conversation happening and I think it centers around some of the issues that Sanders raises that frankly both candidates do spend a lot of time talking about, as well as how people feel the two candidates are going to focus on the leadership - their leadership skills and their priority.

BALDWIN: There was, you know, discussion of trust. There was the discussion of judgment versus experience. Bernie Sanders hammered Hillary Clinton on her vote for the Iraq War. Take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SANDERS: The most significant vote and issue regarding foreign policy that we have seen in this country in modern history was the vote on the war in Iraq. OK, that's the fact. I voted against the war in Iraq. Hillary Clinton voted for the war in Iraq.

CLINTON: I have a much longer history than one vote, which I've said was a mistake, because of the way that that was done and how the Bush administration handled it. But I think the American public has seen me exercising judgment in a lot of other ways. And, in fact, when that hard primary campaign was over and I went to work for President Obama and he ended up asking me to be secretary of state, it was because he trusted my judgment.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Glenn, judgment versus experience. What do you think matters more to the voter?

THRUSH: I guess we're going to find out. I think it depends on the specific voters, right? I mean Sanders' strategy - remember, Iowa is a numbers game. That's what it comes down to. Bernie Sanders needs to expand the electorate. The average caucus turnout, 120,000 to 140,000 voters. Obama shot that up to 240,000 in '08, changed the game. Sanders isn't going to come close to that. Everything I'm hearing, we're going to see maybe in the high 100s, right, tops.

BALDWIN: Yes.

THRUSH: What Clinton has to do is to dig her hole deeper. She's got to get older people out and has to get people who vote in other Democratic races but don't vote in the caucuses. So they're really talking to two separate audiences. She's trying to fire up her people. He's trying to expand. So it really is right now a race between which one of those candidates gets their voters to the polls.

BALDWIN: Iowa, six days away. Glenn Thrush, Margie Omero, thank you two so, so much.

Margie mentioned polls. Let me get this for you now. Just released polls shows numbers Donald Trump has never seen before. We're talking more than 40 percent. But the timing here makes all the difference. Six days, as I just mentioned, to go before the first in the nation Iowa caucuses. Trump is maintaining his monster lead. Across CNN polls, it is the biggest lead yet. Trump there, you see the number at the top of your screen, 41 percent. That is more than double the support of his closest competitor, Senator Ted Cruz. And then when you look among Trump supporters, 70 percent, seven-zero, say they are devoted to him with no chance of switching. In fact, Trump stacks up a ton of firsts in this latest CNN poll. First in handling the economy. First in handling illegal immigration, foreign policy, abortion, same- sex marriage. He is also first among men, women, younger voters, older voters, college graduates and Tea Party supporters.

[14:10:12] But there is one contest Trump fails to lead, making this election one of the most intriguing of modern times. Trump loses in hypothetical matches to Democrat Bernie Sanders. And against Hillary Clinton, he is behind her by one single point.

Let's go now to senior political reporter Manu Raju live in Iowa with the Marco Rubio campaign.

Manu, what's the reaction you're hearing from the Rubio camp on the latest poll numbers, including that ginormous - if that's even a word that I use it all the time - lead that Trump has?

MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: Yes, it's really a big lead, Brooke. I mean the Rubio campaign believes that this race, these national polls are not nearly as important as those early state polls. Now, Donald Trump is still leading in a lot of those early state polls, including here in Iowa and in New Hampshire.

But the belief within the Rubio camp is that as soon as voters start voting, that that's going to change the entire complexion of this race, assuming that Rubio comes in a strong third place finish here. They believe they can mount the case that they are the alternative to Donald Trump. And then you'll see folks like maybe other establishment-backed candidates begin to drop out and see some of that support move towards Marco Rubio.

I believe the hope within some circles of the Rubio camp is that Ted Cruz actually loses here in Iowa and won't win another state for several more weeks, and that would really hurt his momentum. And hopefully, if you're a Rubio supporter, you'll see this race turning into a Rubio versus Trump race and the establishment will start to unite behind Marco Rubio.

Now, this is sort of like a double bank shot, hoping that a lot of things fall in the right place. But this has been such an unpredictable election. Who knows how it ends up here. But, Brooke, clearly the Rubio campaign believes that things are going to change here once Iowa voters start going to the polls on Monday.

BALDWIN: Double bank shot, got to take your chance and hit - take the shot at least. Manu Raju, thank you so much, in Iowa for us on this Tuesday.

Coming up next, Ted Cruz admits that Donald Trump could be unstoppable if he wins Iowa. How realistic is that? We'll talk about it.

Also, Bernie Sanders, moments ago, making an interesting admission about President Obama's 2008 campaign. We'll share that with you.

And a new warning about a virus being called unprecedented. Who the Zika virus threatens and how there is already a case now in the United States.

You're watching CNN. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:16:45] BALDWIN: You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thanks for being with me today.

Back on politics here. Big news for Trump. Evangelical leader Jerry Falwell Jr. is the son of the famed televangelist and president of Liberty University. Got to wonder how Ted Cruz is taking Falwell's endorsement of Donald Trump given than Cruz announced his run for the White House at Liberty. That was back in May.

Let me bring in Barry Bennett. Used to be campaign manager to Ben Carson's campaign and now he is an adviser to Donald Trump. And Jennifer Rubin, who writes the Right Turn Blog for "The Washington Post."

Welcome, welcome to both of you.

JENNIFER RUBIN, WRITER, "RIGHT TURN BLOG" IN "THE WASHINGTON POST": Nice to be here.

BARRY BENNETT, TRUMP ADVISER, FORMERLY MANAGED CARSON CAMPAIGN: Thanks, Brooke.

BALDWIN: All right, so, let me say it again, six days away from Iowa. You have the Falwell endorsement today. Jennifer, you know, Trump has taken one of the most prominent evangelical leaders in the nation at this time. All of this, you know, you've seen the poll numbers. Is this enough, you think, to tip the scales for him in Iowa?

RUBIN: I think it may have been before this that he had tipped the scales for himself. I think this is probably the cherry on the top of the ice cream sundae. I know his folks don't want to raise expectations, but it really is a bit of a master stroke. I have to hand it to Donald Trump. And no one would ever accuse me of being an apologist for Donald Trump. He basically took the argument entirely away from Cruz that he is a guy with, quote, New York values, that he's somehow not worthy of the Christian vote in Iowa and he just basically eviscerated that.

BALDWIN: I - Barry, I want to ask you about the - the Cruz comment about being unstoppable in Iowa. But you agree, cherry on top?

BENNETT: Yes. I mean I think it was a brilliant move. I mean I think Donald Trump is a much smarter politician than most people think he is.

BALDWIN: Ted Cruz. So Ted Cruz says Donald Trump would be unstoppable if he wins Iowa. Listen. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If Donald wins Iowa, he right now has a substantial lead in New Hampshire. If he went on to win New Hampshire as well, there's a very good chance he could be unstoppable and be our nominee.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Unstoppable. Barry, what do you think ultimately could get him the win?

BENNETT: Well, I think that we've witnessed the polls in the last 10 days have moved significantly to Trump's favor in Iowa. The Sarah Palin thing, you know, people in Washington snicker, but people in Iowa, they love Sarah Palin. And, you know, conservatives and Christians in Iowa love Jerry Falwell. So he's doing a lot of things very right. I'm not going to be surprised if he wins Iowa and, you know, we heard a lot about Rubio's three, two, one strategy. You know, I think this might be a one-one-one strategy.

BALDWIN: If you are running for president and you're not Donald Trump, you should probably be reading Jennifer Rubin's piece in "The Post." Headline, "how to eviscerate Trump." I want you to walk through some of the specifics, what these candidates should be doing if it's not already too late for them.

RUBIN: Well, the title is a little bit to get some eyeballs, I'll admit that. But, listen, Trump is playing a different game than everybody else is playing. That's why nobody is landing any punches. He does not bother negotiating with or quibbling with them over policy nuances. He doesn't even go back and try to make hay out of their past record. He goes right for the jugular. He figures out what is their own personal weakness. Jeb bush has low energy. Marco Rubio is supposedly a lightweight. Chris Christie has an ethical cloud hanging over him from Bridgegate. And he pounds that. He figures out what the public already believes they think they know about these guys and he pounds that relentlessly. That puts them on the defensive and it puts him in a power position, vis-a-vis his opponents. He basically is saying, I'm the biggest dog in any room in any debate and then he goes out and shows it.

[14:20:28] So rather than trying to pin him down on policy or say this won't work or that won't work, they've got to give back as good as they are receiving. And that means going after his personal weaknesses. Whether it's the fact that he has exaggerated his wealth over the years, whether it's that his vocabulary is that of about a fourth grader, they have to find these personal weaknesses and respond so that they appear to be as strong, as in comment as he does. As long as they're playing this game of defining who is a conservative and who voted on what bill in 1999, they are not going to beat him.

BALDWIN: Barry, you want to respond to that?

BENNETT: Yes, I mean I think that's - well, one, we're five days out, I think that's pretty late analysis for the other candidates. But, you know, I think that's kind of absurd. I mean I think what Donald Trump has figured out is what people want. And everybody else is running a campaign that's four, eight or 12 years old. They want to talk about their accomplishments, what I did in the Senate. No one cares, right? No one believes the government can really help them.

BALDWIN: Is it what people want or is what people want to hear?

BENNETT: Well, is there a difference? I mean, they've given up hope that Washington can make their lives better. Washington has failed and failed and failed and we're now, you know, closing in on $19 trillion worth of debt, the interest rates can ruin us at any time. It's absurd. Of course they want to burn down Washington. And no one else seems to get it. But Donald Trump does.

BALDWIN: Ted Cruz may say ultimately he could be unstoppable. He being Donald Trump. But before then, I want to play just this anti-Trump ad from Ted Cruz's perspective, using Trump's own words against him. Here it was.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I mean, hey, I lived in New York City, in Manhattan all my life, OK. So, you know, my views are a little bit different than if I lived in Iowa.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (voice-over): They are different, like on abortion.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Would President Trump ban partial birth abortion?

TRUMP: Well, look, I am pro-choice in every respect.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And what does Trump think about Iowa?

TRUMP: How stupid are the people of Iowa?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Donald Trump, New York values, not ours.

TRUMP: You know, my views are a little bit different than if I lived in Iowa.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: True, yes. You know, he said these things, Barry. Final question to you, you think it just brush it off his shoulder and roll on?

BENNETT: Yes. I think it makes Ted Cruz look like a really bad politician. I mean 20-year-old clips. I mean I - you know, no one cares, right? We're living in the world of now. And right now it's a disaster and we need someone to clean it up.

BALDWIN: Barry Bennett, Jennifer Rubin, thank you both.

Coming up next, to debate or not to debate here. Donald Trump putting the question to his supporters on social media. Why the Republican frontrunner is apparently having second thoughts about showing up at that final debate before the Iowa caucuses.

Also, embracing Obama's legacy. Hillary Clinton going all in on her support for the president. But is that a risky strategy, especially in the year of the so-called outsider candidate? We'll discuss, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:27:47] BALDWIN: New fallout today after the Democrats, who would like to be president of the United States here, took on one another last night during CNN's town hall in Iowa. Hillary Clinton defending her experience. Bernie sanders making big admissions about what he would do if he were elected. And Martin O'Malley there making some closing arguments as well. Joining me now, John Avlon, editor and chief of "The Daily Beast," and Brian Stelter, senior media correspondent joining us in just a hot second as well.

But, John Avlon, first to you. You watched. Unique format. Really gave these different candidates an opportunity to speak, answer questions directly from their - from voters. Who stood out? What stood out to you?

JOHN AVLON, EDITOR AND CHIEF, "THE DAILY BEAST": You know, I think Bernie was able to be at his best at the outset of the night. I mean he's authentic, he's affable, even if you deeply disagree with him, and he knows what he believes. And even getting tough questions about, you know, how do you define socialism, he deflected it and answered things forthrightly.

O'Malley's had a hell of a time getting traction in this race, as you well know.

BALDWIN: Yes.

AVLON: But I thought he was very strong in this format, much so than a typical debate. And Hillary Clinton I think showed some real fire and passion, particularly getting asked, you know, whether she could be believed. But I think each of them really had different strengths that were on display last night. It was informative.

BALDWIN: As we mentioned, different people were able to stand up, ask questions of the different candidates. There was someone who stood up, a Bernie Sanders supporter, asked this of Hillary Clinton.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I've been around a long time. People have thrown all kinds of things at me. And, you know, I can't keep up with it. I just keep going forward. They fall by the wayside. They come up with these outlandish things. They make these charges. I just keep going forward because there's nothing to it. They throw all this stuff at me and I'm still standing. But if you're new to politics, if it's the first time you've really paid attention, you go, oh, my gosh, look at all of this. And you have to say to yourself, why are they throwing all of that? Well, I'll tell you why. Because I've been on the front lines of change and progress since I was your age. (END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: The question was, essentially, you know, there's this lack of enthusiasm for you. My friends say you're dishonest. That was her response. How do you think she handled that?

[14:30:02] AVLON: Look, I think she was fired up. I think she tried to put it in context. There's a risk of condescension when you start saying about, well, you're probably too young to remember some of the fights I've been through. But I think it - it really accentuated one of her great