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LEGAL VIEW WITH ASHLEIGH BANFIELD

New Iowa Polls; Campaign Endorsements; Iowa Caucuses One Week Away. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired January 25, 2016 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[12:00:12] ASHLEIGH BANFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone. I'm Ashleigh Banfield. And welcome to LEGAL VIEW.

Seven days and counting to the first votes for the president in the Iowa caucuses and both of the races look like nail biters. Ahead of tonight's Democratic town hall airing live on CNN, our newest poll of polls shows a virtual dead heat. Bernie Sanders has the backing of 46 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers to Senator Clinton's 44. Nationally, Senator Clinton is still way out in front, though, 53 percent to Sanders' 38.

And on the GOP side of things, Donald Trump is holding on to a very slim lead in Iowa. Our poll of polls shows Trump five points ahead of Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who won "The Des Moines Register" endorsement over the weekend, is in third place. Nationally, Trump has a much wider lead, 16 points ahead of Cruz, and Rubio, again, is in third place.

As Democrats prepare for tonight's town hall, their last chance to reach the Iowa audience, and the national audience as well before the Iowa caucus, one of them is touting experience, and the other is touting change.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Eight years ago Obama was being attacked by everything. He was unrealistic. His ideas were pie in the sky. He did not have the experience that was needed. But you know what, people of Iowa saw through those attacks then, and they're going to see through those attacks again.

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We can't wait. We have urgent business to do in America. And if you give me the chance, I will work my heart out for you and I will continue to learn from you and make sure that we move forward together. Thank you all very much.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: So let's bring in CNN Politics executive editor Mark Preston, and national correspondent Sunlen Serfaty at the site of tonight's town hall, which is Drake University.

Welcome to the both of you. I want to begin with you, Mark. Sanders is surging. Clinton gets the endorsement, however, from a very important source, "The Des Moines Register." O'Malley is almost nonexistent at this point. So what difference did that make for Hillary Rodham Clinton to get that endorsement this weekend?

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Well, not only "The Des Moines Register," but in many ways what we saw this morning from an interview that was published in Politico where the president really was effusive about Hillary Clinton and her ability as a candidate and her knowledge of worldly affairs and what have you. He was not critical of Bernie Sanders, but he also didn't talk about -- talk about him as effusive.

So this comes now as we've seen now "The Des Moines Register" who has endorsed her, which is important in these closing seven days here in Iowa. We've also seen "The Boston Globe" endorse her. And, of course, probably the biggest one, just a few hours ago released by Politico is Barack Obama, while not endorsing her, very effusive about her, Ashleigh.

BANFIELD: And no one will deny that endorsements matter, but performance is really so key. So this town hall tonight, Mark, it's not just on CNN. It's being carried by affiliates all over that state. Talk to me about the reach that these candidates will have, tonight, one week from the caucus.

PRESTON: And this is why it's important. Very imply, if we go back and look at data from 2008, from folks who voted, Democrats who voted in the Iowa caucuses, it shows that 27 percent of those folks were undecided heading into Election Day. On Election Day, Ashleigh, 11 percent made their decision. So tonight when you see Bernie Sanders on stage, when you see Hillary Clinton on stage, and, yes, Martin O'Malley, who is really trying to throw a Hail Mary, they can perhaps persuade voters to come to their side, folks who have been on the fence. They could also very well stumble, which could be critical as we head into February 1st.

So a lot is riding tonight on what's going on. And as we've seen from those two clips, we have seen that -- there's two messages that are resonating right now. We have Hillary Clinton talking about experience, and you have Bernie Sanders talking about a revolution. We'll see which one wins out on February 1st.

BANFIELD: OK, Sunlen, let's go over to the other side of things, the GOP folks. No, they're not in the town hall tonight, but those numbers are very, very close but they have flipped, and they have flipped in favor, if you believe the polls that is, in favor of Donald Trump. Walk me through this critical neck and neck moment and where they think the momentum is at this point. If you look at these numbers, it's just astounding. Fox News Poll showing Trump on top now, 34 to 23. That was not the situation just over -- you know, a week ago, January 4th through 7th it was the opposite.

[12:05:01] SUNLEN SERFATY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Ashleigh, this is really a dramatic shift in favor of Donald Trump here in Iowa this week. You have to think that the Cruz campaign has to be worried that an 11 point jump over the last week, so that's significant here when we're talking about votes just a week away. And what we've seen from Ted Cruz to try to recover from some lost momentum, trying to reinject a little energy, he's out on the stump this weekend really sharpening his stump speech against Ted Cruz, really trying to make the argument, don't look at what he says, look at what he's done, where has he been in past battles.

At his first stop just moments ago here in Iowa, he tried to have a little fun and poke a little fun at Donald Trump's 2nd Corinthians flub, opening up with a joke saying, two Corinthians walk into a bar. I won't get into the rest of the joke. But clearly trying to poke a little fun at him, but also making the very clear argument that Donald Trump is a phony conservative and a phony evangelical. That sort of message and argument going into the final stretch here in Iowa, he thinks, could work for him, but certainly has a lot of making up ground to do.

Ashleigh.

BANFIELD: So, Sunlen, look, as we quote these polls, CNN will only use polls that are conducted in a certain way. Meaning, if you can go online and tap return, return, return 100 times, we're not going to use a poll like that. We do the good old-fashioned gum shoe telephoning, OK. It's one thing to pick up a phone and answering a guy asking you questions, and it is another thing on a cold Iowa night to go out to those caucuses and spend an hour or two actually debating and discussing publicly what your choice is in front of all your colleagues and friends and neighbors. Does anybody think in Iowa right now that the ratings that have been through the roof on the Democratic and Republican debates this whole season might actually translate into huge turnout this time?

SERFATY: Well, that's always a question here in Iowa about turnout. This is always the factor that's really echoed within campaigns. It's all about turnout, it's all about turnout, but it certainly does seem to be the case this year.

I should also note, and this is something that Mark just referenced too, the amount of undecideds here in Iowa is striking. When you talk to people in town halls, talk to people that come out for specific events, they're there to hear the candidate, but they have not made up their mind yet. 28 percent on the Republican side still do not have a candidate in this race. That shows that there are a lot of candidate votes on the table for these candidates to college and really why this week here in Iowa is so important for them.

BANFIELD: You never know whether the interest in all the campaigns in your cozy warm living room will make a difference on those freezing cold caucus nights.

OK, Mark Preston, Sunlen Serfaty, thank you to both of you. I'm glad you have inside jobs today, that's for sure, because it is none too warm up there in Iowa.

All right, so back to the news here. Whom will President Obama officially endorse? He says he's staying out of it until a nominee is selected. But as Mark Preston just mentioned, over the weekend, Mr. Obama gave an interview to Politico in which he did not say anything negative about Sanders, but was very complimentary of Clinton. Have a listen to this short clip of that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES (voice-over): Look, I've gotten to know Hillary really well and she is a good, smart, tough person who cares deeply about this country, and she has been in the public eye for a long time and in a culture in which new is always better --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right.

OBAMA: And, you know, you're always looking at the bright shiny object that people don't -- haven't seen before, that's a disadvantage to her.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: This comes as Mrs. Clinton takes home the endorsement of "The Des Moines Register" and also "The Boston Globe," as we mentioned. So how does the Sanders camp respond to this? And how do people respond?

I want to bring in Jonathan Tasini, who's a Bernie Sanders supporter. He's also the author of the book, "The Essential Bernie Sanders and His Vision for America."

Jonathan, thanks so much for being with me today.

Two big endorsements. You can't ignore that that's real, real important, getting those two newspapers, but maybe most important what you just heard the president say. Your response?

JONATHAN TASINI, BERNIE SANDERS SUPPORTER: Well, actually, endorsements don't knock on doors and endorsements don't make phone calls. And by contrast, let me point out that yesterday in a place called Decorah, Iowa, which has a population of 8,000 people, 2,000 people turned out to hear Bernie Sanders enthusiastically. And what I see, actually, is an incredible energy. Your previous polls showed an incredible surge for Bernie Sanders, not just in Iowa, but across the nation. You have to remember that when Bernie started the campaign back in May, which is a relatively short time for a presidential campaign, he was somewhere around 3 percent in the polls. And after we win Iowa and New Hampshire, all those national polls are going to change. The states after that, Nevada, South Carolina, and then Super Tuesday, are all going to feel that energy of the Sanders campaign. Tremendous amount of support. People knocking on doors. If we make the phone calls and if we knock on the doors and the energy for the people, we're going to win in Iowa.

[12:10:07] BANFIELD: OK, let me talk to you a little bit about the demographics that follow your guy. There's no secret that Bernie Sanders, as usual as it is, an older guy, he's inspiring a lot of young people.

TASINI: Hey, we like older guys, come on.

BANFIELD: I do too. I'm one of those older guys. But, you know, the intriguing part of all of this, honestly, is that it looks a lot like what happened with President Obama. He had a lot of young demographics.

TASINI: Yes.

BANFIELD: But what's different about it this time around?

TASINI: Well, I actually think there's some similarities, but what's different is that Bernie's message is about a political revolution, and I have a lot of respect for the president of the United States, but he was not talking about the fundamental change that Bernie's talking about. Breaking up the big banks, making sure that people have free health care, free tuition for all college age kids. You know, it's a very different message, which is what I think has energized not just young people but all -- people all across the country. Many of whom I've met in my travels around the early states involved in politics for the first time. I've met older people, you mentioned older people, who were -- said, I've been a Republican all my life. I won't vote for anybody who's a Republican. I'm for Bernie Sanders, because they sense that this is an opportunity that may not come back in their lifetimes. An opportunity to really change the country in a very deep, fundamental way.

BANFIELD: Did you feel any -- any sort of nervousness over this news that former New York Mayor Bloomberg says if Bernie Sanders is going to go up against Donald Trump, he's jumping in as an independent? Did that send any shock waves through Bernie's folks?

TASINI: Not particularly, although I think Bernie said he couldn't wait to run against two billionaires. I mean that would be a great message, Bernie Sanders, the man of the people, running against two billionaires who are completely out of touch with the average person. You know, Michael Bloomberg, who was --

BANFIELD: I don't know if you can say that. I just have to jump in there.

TASINI: OK.

BANFIELD: I'm not sure you can say out of touch with the average person. If you go to those Donald Trump rallies, there's a lot of average people really stoked about that billionaire.

TASINI: Well -- well, but, remember, he's getting a relatively small percentage of the Republican race. It's something like 30 percent or something, 60 percent in total of Republicans don't support Donald Trump. When you move to a general election, I pray that Donald Trump will be the nominee. Bernie Sanders has polled almost twice as better than Hillary Clinton running against Donald Trump. Not only would Bernie Sanders defeat Donald Trump, but I think he would bring a coattail effect and bring a lot of Democrats into the House of Representatives, probably flip the Senate to Democrats. So Bernie Sanders would be the strongest candidate out there certainly facing Donald Trump and some of the other Republican possibilities.

BANFIELD: Jonathan Tasini, it's nice to see you, and it's nice to see that very lovely weather behind you. Not a -- not a dusting of snow behind you.

TASINI: I'm heading -- I'm heading to Iowa as soon as I'm done here, so it won't be as nice.

BANFIELD: Well, you'll join the party. Sorry for the pun. Thank, Jonathan, nice to have you.

TASINI: OK, Ashleigh.

BANFIELD: I want you to tune in tonight if you've got some time and you're still snowed in, this is a great thing even if you're not. 9:00 Eastern Time only on CNN, the Democratic presidential town hall live from Des Moines, Iowa. My colleague Chris Cuomo is going to be moderating tonight, 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time. It's live, folks. It's real people. Anything can happen.

BANFIELD: Turning now to the East Coast digging out from that massive snowstorm. Thousands of travelers are still stranded at airports all across this country. As many as 1,500 more flights, you guessed it, canceled. And that's today. The snow stopped falling and the flights are still being canceled.

In the meantime, our nation's capital is slowly trying to recover. State and federal government offices in D.C. still closed. So are the schools in that area. And the sun's been out for 24 hours. As for New York City, it's a little different. Really rebounding here in this city very quickly despite snow totals that almost broke a record and were, quite frankly, very unexpected. The city got a lot more than it was bargaining for and yet streets are open, schools are open, government's open, taxis are going. How did this happen? We're going to update you and a whole bunch more on that.

Meantime, for a few months every year, every four years rather, the state of Iowa is the center of the political universe. And my next guest calls it the happy hour of presidential politics. When we come back, an insider's view of campaigning, the caucusing, and the carnival atmosphere that keeps us coming back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:18:37] BANFIELD: Tonight is the big night. The last time democrats will be able to make a national pitch before the Iowa caucuses, which are just seven days away. I want to get the view from the ground there right now. Kyle Munson with "The Des Moines Register." He's a columnist. He's with me live.

Thank you so much for -- for being with me. I appreciate this.

Question for you, Kyle. I got the actual forecast, believe it or not, a week out and it doesn't look bad for Monday night. It's going to be about 32 degrees as a low. There's a 40 percent chance that they'll get some snow activity at night. But you know what, given the typical temperatures, that's kind of a nice temperature and a nice condition for caucus goers to venture out. and that is important in Iowa, isn't it?

KYLE MUNSON, COLUMNIST, "DES MOINES REGISTER": Yes, that is if you want that turnout, if you want to drive that turnout, especially in this race where people are wondering, you know, the millennials for Bernie or whomever -- whatever block we're talking about, the temperatures -- those temperatures, it's like summer in terms of January in Iowa. So that is good news, I think, for candidates across the board.

BANFIELD: I like that you call that summer. I would consider it summer as well. Tropical summer being from Winnipeg, Canada.

MUNSON: It's all relative.

BANFIELD: It is all relative, isn't it?

MUNSON: Yes.

BANFIELD: I also want to talk to you a little bit about this final week because most people are looking at the numbers that are in the polls. You know, Donald Trump has been able to turn around what wasn't looking good for him. he's now leading in Iowa. And a lot of people are saying, I'll bet you this is where it's going to stand. We're only seven days out. It can't change much.

[12:20:04] And then you look at 2012, and you look at the GOP, and you look at their numbers, and one week out, Mitt Romney was leading those polls with 24 percent of the vote, and one week later Mitt Romney did not win that state. In fact, it was Rick Santorum who only had 15 percent of the vote one week out. Is this typical, a flip like this? I've got the numbers on the board so everybody can see. I'm not lying here, folks. Romney, 24, Paul, 22, Santorum 15, and Santorum walked away with that one. Does that really happen one week out typically?

MUNSON: Yes, I mean the nail biter -- the nail biter results are typical here in Iowa. People are used to that. In fact you mentioned Romney. He was declared the winner if you remember on the night of the caucuses. And then only afterward was Santorum determined to have won by a slim margin. So people make up their minds late in January. Still a lot of undecided caucus goers out there. And, you know, the dynamics of this election, with the whole outsider mystique and, you know, the rise of Trump and Sanders in some ways, people are expecting this to come out -- come down to the wire. And we will have another final Iowa poll coming out this next weekend to kind of have that final pulse taken on the race.

BANFIELD: You know, as we get closer to the caucuses and the primaries, there's this -- there's this phrase that becomes part of our common parlance. It's ground game. Ground game, ground game, ground game. We keep hearing that. How critical it is. And I've read what you have said about the ground game there versus celebrity. Ted -- or, you know, Senator Cruz has phenomenal ground game. And Donald Trump has incredible celebrity. Both of them are very powerful. And I want to get your take on how powerful celebrity can be when it comes to elections.

MUNSON: You know, it's questionable. I think it's certainly rallies thousands of people to an event. Whether you're talking about a Trump rally in different corners of the state or you're talking about Demi Lovato or Katy Perry or other celebrities who have come here on behalf of Hillary Clinton. Susan Sarandon is going to be here for Bernie this week. So even some of the candidates, you know, with, you know, ground game, like, you know, Bernie among millennials or Cruz among evangelicals, celebrity is used routinely here and it has been for -- you know, for decades in Iowa. But the staying power I think is really in the -- in the ground game in, you know, getting reliable caucus goers out there. So when you think about -- you're talking about things like weather or --

BANFIELD: What's your feeling though? I mean, listen, Kyle -- Kyle, honestly, there's such a difference between the celebrity endorsement versus the celebrity candidate. I mean Donald Trump has been on television for years pushing people around and telling them they're fired. He's had ratings through the roof for that program. And I'm just wondering, your folks in Iowa, do they see the difference between the celebrity endorsement versus the celebrity candidate versus an incredible ground game and people who will show on your behalf?

MUNSON: Yes, no, I mean, Iowa voters are discerning. So I -- I think in -- they really do know the difference. I mean one of my favorite tweets in recent weeks was one that observed, you know, when Sarah Palin was endorsing Trump, we have the politician turned reality TV star endorsing the reality TV star turned politician. You know that -- that nicely sums up the kind of the mental puzzle here.

The real question is whether I think the average voter, caucus goers, who sees themselves as disenfranchised, will, in the end, buy into the whole Trump argument.

BANFIELD: Yes.

MUNSON: You know, the billionaire fighting for the common person. I think they can discern differences, but I think it's, who will they reward in this -- this anger about, you know, against government and this whole notion of the outsider as the solution to our problems, which is different on the ground here this cycle than it has been, you know, four, eight, you know, 12 years ago.

BANFIELD: Well, I'm going to repeat your words because I think they're important, mental puzzle. There's been a lot of that in this last several months. Thank you. I appreciate it. It's good to read your words too.

MUNSON: Thank you so much.

BANFIELD: Kyle Munson, thanks for being with us.

Two days after the first monster snowstorm of the season, the city that expected to get the worst of it but did not is still more or less at a standstill, while the city that was pummeled beyond expectation and wasn't expecting snow is pretty much back to normal. We are going to take you live to Washington, take you live to New York City, do a little compare and contrast right after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:28:52] BANFIELD: Some breaking news. I want to give you some pictures that are coming into us via our affiliate WJLA in Silver Spring, Maryland. What you are looking at is the sad result of a lot of snow on the roof of a church in Silver Spring. Sadly, that roof was not able to with stand the weight of that snowfall, and it collapsed inward. I can tell you the good news is no one was injured despite the fact yesterday was Sunday. We have no injuries. Just a real mess. That's going to be a tough one for Silver Spring. That's in Montgomery County, Maryland, where they reported up to 13 inches. We are told that the totals in Silver Spring were closer to four inches, but you know how drifting can be. Low-lying areas can be. There can be really big changes from, you know, geographic area to geographic area in terms of the amount of snow -- snowfall. But certainly a very sad story for this church in Silver Spring, Maryland. And our thank you so WJLA for those aerial shots they're providing for us.

[12:29:55] It's really been a tale of two cities, though, if you look at the big weather picture with this massive blizzard. New York really bouncing back quickly. Not the same story in Washington, D.C. Our nation's capital is still paralyzed. The schools remain closed. The federal buildings are still shut tight.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)