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Three American contractors have gone missing in Iraq; Three released American prisoners landed at an air base in Germany; President Obama, this morning, hailing Iran's nuclear deal and compliance; Hillary Clinton leading in the national polls but polls in the crucial early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire; 5-6p ET

Aired January 17, 2016 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN HOST, NEWSROOM: And police in Tennessee are searching for a missing 2-year-old who disappeared Thursday while hiking with his grandmother and sister in the woods just east of Memphis. Our affiliate WMC says he wandered away from his family. Police don't believe foul play is involved.

All right. Thanks so much for being with m today. I'm Fredricka Whitfield. Much more straight ahead right after this.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

[17:00:28] POPPY HARLOW, CNN HOST: Top of the hour. I'm Poppy Harlow in New York. We begin with breaking news.

Three American contractors have gone missing in Iraq. A senior security official in Baghdad tells CNN the contractors went missing two days ago. This was first reported by their companies. Still, though, we know very few details at this hour.

CNN's senior international correspondent Nick Paton Walsh spoke with us last hour. Here's what we know.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (on the phone): Initial reports suggest some of them may hold dual nationalities are the American and perhaps Iraqi as well. They are said to be contractors.

Now, that's a little bit of information that, of course, could mean a variety of potential tasks, anything from security to assisting communications logistics could be the kind of thing that are involved. Now, they were, it seems, went missing and there have been some reports suggesting there could be a detention or a kidnap in a southern neighborhood of Baghdad.

The state department has said they are working with Iraqi officials as much as they can to try and ensure the safety and security and with the full cooperation of the Iraqi authorities to locate and recover those individuals. That's according to state department spokesman John Kirby. Now, we don't knows who might be behind this detention or quite the

nature of how they have gone missing from Iraqi officials. The area in Baghdad in which this would have occurred would most likely and some reports have suggested that perhaps militia in Baghdad be responsible rather than this being something that perhaps ISIS or more extremist militias on the outside of the capital could be involved.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: Nick Paton Walsh for us on this.

Let's talk more about this now. Joining me CNN military analyst lieutenant general Mark Hertling. He serves as the division commander in Iraq.

You know the terrain well, you know the geopolitics involved well. Talk to me about what a search like this entails. Sounds like they got word of them being missing two days ago.

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: This is going to be tough, Poppy. Good afternoon.

First of all, when you're talking contractors, just Nick just said, you don't know what kind of contractors they are. They could be anything from working for a truck driving company, a logistics support or working as interpreters or translators are to forces who are training the Iraqi forces. The fact that it was in southern Baghdad, that doesn't give a whole lot of details either because there are both Shia and Sunni neighborhoods in Baghdad. I spent 15 months in Baghdad. And depending on whether it took place you might have them being kidnapped by ISIS or they could be kidnapped by a Shia popular mobilization front brigade or they could be kidnapped by a local gang. Because there are often times when local gangs just kidnap individuals to try and get ransom from them. And they know that American contractors will bring a great deal of ransom.

HARLOW: Absolutely. All right. General Hertling, thank you very much. Much more from you in a bit.

But I do want to turn to Iraq or to Iran, I should say, and those three released American prisoners savoring right now their first hours of true freedom since leaving an Iranian prison. Their feet are back on friendly soil. They landed at an air base in Germany just a short time ago.

I want to pause for a moment. I want you look hat this photo. It's the first image that we are seeing of "Washington Post" reporter Jason Rezaian since he left Iran. He was held these for 545 days. The photo was snapped on the tarmac in Geneva where the plane stop briefly before it made its way to Germany. Iran convicted Rezaian on espionage last year. They sent him to a prison notorious for cruel treatment.

The other two released prisoners on their way home are marine veteran Amir Hekmati and also Christian pastor Saeed Abedini.

I want to bring in our senior Washington correspondent Joe Johns.

When you look at this, it is just an unbelievable day for their families. No question. Tell us when we're expected to see them back on U.S. soil? And also there is one freed prisoner who decided not to come back to the United States.

JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Right. It is really not clear when they will end up here in the United States. There's obviously a certain degree of medical checkout that goes on there. There's also psychological questions because some of these prisoners, at least one of them, has been held for a very long time. Some doubts as to when those individuals will arrive here.

It is true also, Poppy, that one of the Americans who was released did not return to the United States and is pretty much a mystery as to what happened and why. His name is Nosratollah Khosravi. The administration to comments essentially saying it is decision. It's his discretion and he decided to remain in Iran. So we do know about the Americans who are headed here. Not sure in the timetable when they'll get here.

[17:05:23] HARLOW: And Joe, what did you make of the fact that we heard from the president making that address in the cabinet room this morning about 10:45 eastern time. He opted not to speak last night. And one would think that is because he was perhaps waiting for wheels to really be up on that plane and those Americans to be headed home?

JOHNS: That's probably true because the fact of the matter is this back and forth between Iran and the United States continues. In fact, there was an issue about testing of ballistic missiles which has been ongoing. And there were a number of individuals who were set for sanctions to get sanctions imposed on them as a result of the ballistic missile testing. But the United States held off on announcing all of that. In fact, until the Americans were safely out of Iran air space.

So that just goes to show you they reached some agreements that the United States government, the president saying engagement was an important part of getting those Americans to come home, but there are a lot of others unresolved issues including human rights, for example, and some sanctions remain in place there. The inspectors who were looking for signs that Iran might try to -- despite the agreement that was launched this week, might actually try to create a new nuclear bomb. They will be watching, the president said today, 365 days, 24 hours a day. So a lot of pieces to this. It is sort of a beginning not an ending, Poppy.

HARLOW: Well put. Joe Johns at the White House. Thank you so much.

I want to go to Fred Pleitgen live for us in Germany this evening.

Fred, you are there at the air base where they're landing in Germany for what could be several days of medical examinations and treatment. Do we know what they'll undergo?

FRED PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Poppy. I mean, there are certainly going to several phases of the medical treatment that all three of these individuals are going to have to go through.

On the one hand, of course, there is all the physical issues that many of them will have had. You will recall that in the case of Jason Rezaian there was a lot of concern about his medical condition. When he was in detention there at the prison, there was concern about his blood pressure, for instance, that perhaps he wasn't getting the right medication. Amir Hekmati, one of the other ones who was detained, he was in there for four years. And we have to keep in mind that Aveen (ph) prison is one of the toughest and most notorious prisons inside Iran. And so, therefore that alone will raise some great concern about the physical state of these three men.

And then, of course, you have the psychological trauma that is induced when you're in detention for that amount of time. Again, Amir Hekmati, four years, Saeed Abedini, three years in detention. You had Jason Rezaian with 'the Washington Post" at some stage said that he was in solitary confinement for a very, very long time.

So all of these things, there are things that mean that they will have to go through physical, medical treatment as well as psychological of course as well. But one of the other things that, of course, is very, very important especially right now as they've just gone to that Landstuhl medical center, is that for the first time in a long time many of them will be seeing many of their loved ones, their friends and family. So certainly at this point they'll be ecstatic to see them after such a long time in detention there in Iran, Poppy.

HARLOW: No question about it.

Fred Pleitgen live for us tonight in Germany. Thank you so much.

President Obama, this morning, hailing Iran's nuclear deal and compliance and saying the prisoner swap is a catalyst for making the world a safer place. The president just began his final year in office. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Under the nuclear deal that we our allies and partners leached with Iran last year, Iran will not get its hands on a nuclear bomb. The region, the United States and the world will be more secure.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Joining me now to discuss CNN senior political analyst David Gergen, former adviser to four presidents, President Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton.

David, thank you for being here.

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Thank you. Good to talk to you again, Poppy. HARLOW: The president of Iran Hassan Rouhani tweeted just a few hours

ago this, in part he said, we extended a hand of friendship and despite the challenges, conspiracies and doubts, managed to open a new chapter in our relations with the world.

So let's talk legacy here, David. Will history remember this president, President Obama, as the deal president?

GERGEN: Absolutely. And Bob Gates, distinguished secretary of defense for both President Bush and President Obama told me some time ago that in his 50 years of public service he had never seen a problem as difficult as this one. How to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon without going to war. And here President Obama and Secretary Kerry deserves a lot of credit, too.

Having negotiated a deal that at least on paper will prevent them from getting a nuclear weapon for 10 to 15 years. Let's be clear about it. There was a lot in this deal for Iran, and that is they got credit of over $100 billion or so. We'll have to wait to see how much that is. So on its face, it looks like a historic deal. The big question, Poppy, is will it last? Will it actually work? And on that one the jury is still very, very much out.

[17:10:46] HARLOW: So David, I think that's a great point. You say will it work and on paper it can looks good. Let's go back in time. Let's go to 1994. Here's president Bill Clinton touting the North Korean nuclear deal designed to rein in that country's nuclear capabilities.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I would like to say just a word about the framework with North Korea that ambassador Dellucci signed this morning. This is a good deal for the United States. North Korea will freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program. South Korea and our other allies will be better protected. The entire world will be safer as we slow the spread of nuclear weapons.

South Korea with support from Japan and other nations will bear most of the costs of providing North Korea with fuel to make up for the nuclear energy it is losing, and they will pay for an alternative power system for North Korea that will allow them to produce electricity while making it much harder for them to produce nuclear weapons. The United States and international inspectors will carefully monitor North Korea to make sure it keeps its commitments.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: So David, we all remember that, and opponents of this deal would very likely point to that deal and say this one could fall apart, too. Do they have a point?

GERGEN: Absolutely. And Poppy, I'll tell you up front, I was on the Clinton team and working on the national securities issues when that deal with North Korea was signed. And it's always been a big cautionary note for any of us who were there, as you can sign these deals but the other side will continue to find ways to cheat. And you have got to monitor it very carefully. And we are not at all sure that Iran -- I think you can assume that Iran will try to cheat. The question is can we catch them?

Now, for example, there may be some loop holes in here. They shipped a lot of the fuel out of Iran and so to get credit for that. But where did they ship it to? To Russia? Is Russia a friend of ours right now? Can we trust Putin? I mean, on its face that raises all sorts of risks.

But beyond that, at the time this deal was negotiated with Ira, you know, there were stories coming out of the administration, the Obama administration that Iran was now going to become a more constructive player in international affairs. What's happened since then? Well, they have been supporting Assad and Syria. They have gone to Yemen in a big way. They are helping Hezbollah. You know, they are building a big Shia empire.

So there are a lot of ifs about this. I think one has to give credit to the president and John Kerry. They're trying. And I must tell you I have talked to former secretary of state on the Republican side who won't say much in public, but they believe that and say it's a flawed deal but it is better than what we had. And yes, there are a lot of risks.

HARLOW: I think, you also, David, have to think about what is the future of Iran sort of long term. And that was pointed to very directly this morning, I think, from the president when he spoke directly to Iranian youth. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I do want to once again speak directly to the Iranian people. Yours is a great civilization with a vibrant culture that has so much to contribute to the world. In commerce and in science and in arts. For decades your government's threats and actions to destabilize your region have isolated Iran for much of the world. And now our governments are talking about one another. Following the nuclear deal you have the opportunity to begin building new ties with the world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: This, David, is playing directly to the heart of a new generation. Is that effective?

GERGEN: Again, we don't know, Poppy. It is a very good question. At heart this is a gamble by the United States that after 10 or 15 years without building a nuclear weapon the old ayatollah, the ones that in power now, will die off and a new generation will come to power and that generation will want to remain a part of the global economy. They will want sort of western style jeans machine and movies and everything else and they won't want to build a nuclear weapon so they can remain, you know, become a 21st century country. That's the dream, that's the gamble. I must tell you in the last few weeks since this deal was negotiated

the Iranian authorities of today have been cracking down. They have been very conservative. They are very reasserted themselves and they're saying, BS, we're not going to become a westernized country. Stay out of here. America is still evil empire.

[17:15:13] HARLOW: David Gergen, important analysis, thank you so much.

GERGEN: Thank you, Poppy.

HARLOW: Coming up, a lot of news. Three contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination in Charleston tonight. A big night there. It could be a make or break moment in the race for the White House. CNN's David Chalian live with me next with his cheat sheet for what you will want to watch for.

Hillary Clinton leading in the national polls but polls in the crucial early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire might be giving her quite some reason to worry. We'll speak about the supporter of Clinton about whether or not they're worried about that. Stay with me.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:18:28] HARLOW: Updating our top story at this hour, an Iraqi security official with knowledge of the situation of those contractors missing in Iraq tell us at CNN that two of them have dual Iraqi/American citizenship. The third is identified as an American national. The source also tells CNN the men were taken by a group of gunmen from an apartment complex in Baghdad. Of course, we will bring you more on this as we get it.

Now to the democratic presidential race ahead of tonight's debate in Charleston, South Carolina. Just two weeks to go before those critical Iowa caucuses. Let's take a look at the recent polls. Hillary Clinton crushing senator Bernie Sanders on the national stage, up 25 percent in a new NBC News/"Wall Street Journal" poll out today. But in just the states of Iowa and New Hampshire, voters picking Sanders to beat more Republican candidates in the general election than they think Hillary Clinton could.

CNN political director David Chalian joins us from beautiful Charleston, South Carolina. And you say it is because of Iowa and New Hampshire that tonight the gloves are off?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Well, that's right. I mean, Clinton on offense, that's the first thing you should watch for tonight, Poppy. It is exactly because of how close things are in Iowa and New Hampshire. By far Bernie Sanders' two strongest states in his challenge with Hillary Clinton right now. And that is why on the stump in interviews every day and I'm certain on the debate stage tonight, you're going to see Hillary Clinton continue to draw sharp contrasts with Bernie Sanders specifically on the issue of guns and healthcare and overall electability because Hillary Clinton also makes the argument that she believes she is best poised to defeat the Republicans.

[17:20:18] HARLOW: So there is also the argument that if you compare this to 2008 Sanders benefits from those incredibly energized young voters. Perhaps voters a little bit more excited about him than some Clinton supporters are about her. You say Sanders has to build up that base tonight, get it locked in?

CHALIAN: Well, right. So I'm actually looking to see how he makes an appeal to expand beyond that base. You identified it perfectly, Poppy. We saw a Des Moines Register poll out in Iowa last week. He does have the Obama coalition. Young voters, independent voters, first-time caucus goers. They're with him. They're fired up. Now, I'm looking to see how does he reach out the more traditional democratic voter, older voters that seem to be part of Hillary Clinton's base? What, tonight on the debate stage, does he do to expand the reach of where he is right now? Poppy, actually -- sorry.

HARLOW: Go ahead, David.

CHALIAN: Well, I was just going to go - and part of that is especially here in South Carolina about the African-American vote.

HARLOW: Yes.

CHALIAN: So that's the third thing I'm looking to see tonight because African-American-centric issues will no doubt play a big part in this debate tonight. It's being cosponsored by the congressional black caucus. And remember, in the South Carolina Democratic primary, a majority of the voters are African-American. And that has not been a base of support for Bernie Sanders right now.

So watching how the two candidates try to appeal to the African- American vote, I was at a dinner that the South Carolina Democratic Party put on that was clearly a big part of the focus of their stump speeches and I expect we are going to see some play for the African- American vote on the stage.

HARLOW: Well, in the last polling that we have it that FOX poll from December shows Clinton has 82 percent of the African-American vote versus Bernie Sanders, 11 in South Carolina. I mean, can he even hope to get it, David?

CHALIAN: Sure. He can. And by the way, if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire and Hillary Clinton suffers defeat in those first two contests, it's a whole new ball game. She still probably is favored to win the nomination after that, but I would imagine that Bernie Sanders will have so much momentum that he will make a real play here in South Carolina. And like I said that is largely dependent on making an appeal to African-Americans.

HARLOW: It is an exciting race on both sides and pretty fun for you and I and all of us to get to be in the middle of it.

David Chalian, thank you so much. Have fun tonight.

CHALIAN: Thanks, Poppy. HARLOW: You'll not want to miss our post-debate special. Our very

own Wolf Blitzer, our best political team in television talks about the debates, who won, who lost and whether tonight changes the race. 11:00 p.m. eastern only right here.

Coming up next, are we on the cusp of generational change in American politics. The shift is so dramatic, it could give one party a boost in the elections from here on out. We will talk about that and which party benefits, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:25:49] HARLOW: Democrat or Republican? Our next U.S. president is going to be more liberal, so says Peter Beinart, contributing editor of "the Atlantic" and "the National Journal." He argues that is because America's moving left. He writes in the Atlantic this month quote "there's a backlash against the liberalism of the Obama era, but it is louder than it is strong. Instead of turning right, the country as a whole is still moving to the left."

Peter Beinart joins me now. Thank you for being here.

PETER BEINART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: My pleasure.

HARLOW: It is a fascinating piece. And you say just look to young Americans as evidence. Here's part of what you wrote that struck me so much. You wrote. According to pew, a clear majority of young Republicans say immigrant strength in America half say corporate profits are too high and almost half say strict environmental laws are worth the cost.

Why should Republican candidates take notice of that when often, as we've seen election after election, young votes often don't equal as many as the older generations who will get out to the polls more?

BEINART: Because the size of this millennial generation is vast, you know. In the next couple of elections, they're going to be between 30 and 40 percent of the electorate. They are going to stay that way until closer to the middle of this century. So this is, whether you are able to compete amongst this generation or not is going to be tremendously important. And right now the Republican Party has had a couple of significant big problems.

First of all, those millennials will remember George W. Bush didn't like him very much. They prefer Barack Obama. But also, even those millennials who identify as Republican tend to be more liberal on a series of issues. It is not that the Republican Party could not compete among those people, but the kind of messages coming out of the Republican Party now, no acknowledgment of the human contribution to climate change, hostility.

HARLOW: To paint the whole Republican Party with that brush.

BEINART: No, that's true. I think - but if you look at the presidential candidates, I think Jeb Bush, to his credit, has quietly acknowledged there may be a human contribution. HARLOW: And Lindsey Graham before he dropped out.

BEINART: Right. But you look at, you know, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, the front-runners in this race, they're not talking about climate change at all as a problem. In fact, they tend to mock the Obama administration's concern about climate change. And there is also a hostility to immigration, certainly with Donald Trump, an opposition to the idea that people who are undocumented could become citizens from Ted Cruz and Donald Trump and others.

HARLOW: Let's talk about that in terms of the immigrants and the importance of the minority vote, right. So you write about that and you cite a political consultant for Senator Marco Rubio who noted that even if the Republican, whoever the Republican nominee is, gets 60 percent of the white vote. And in a general, they are going to need almost 30 percent of minority vote.

Look at 2012, Mitt Romney only got 17 percent. That's when the entire GOP had this sort of come to Jesus moment and this whole memo on how we're going to get more of the minority vote.

In the primary, Donald Trump has succeeded on exactly the opposite of that, right, echoing the voice of what someone called the angry middle class white man. What does it mean for a general?

BEINART: I think it's a big problem. You know, it's still possible the Republicans could nominate Marco Rubio who seems to still at least as of a few weeks ago supported the idea of a path to legalization and even citizenship. But what's happened in 2012 to Mitt Romney, where he got pushed into a place on the right on immigration that alienated Latinos in the general election has happened on destroyed steroids in this Trump primary for Republicans. And it has solidified the Latino allegiance to Democratic Party. I don't think it's impossible for Republicans to overturn that over time but it is certainly a lot harder than it was a year ago.

HARLOW: Peter Beinart for us in Washington tonight. Peter, thank you very much. It is a fascinating read in "the Atlantic" saying America is moving left.

BEINART: Thank you.

HARLOW: Thank you.

Coming up next, Bernie Sanders responds to attacks from Hillary Clinton's daughter, Chelsea.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But I was a little disappointed that what Chelsea said was simply not accurate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Could that set the stage for more contentious Democratic debate tonight especially with the Iowa caucuses just two weeks away? That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:33:04] HARLOW: We are just hours away from what could be a make or break moment for Hillary Clinton. The presidential race with her poll numbers slumping in two key states and Bernie Sanders surging in those states. She will face off with him tonight in the fourth Democratic presidential debate. Remember, we are just 15 days away from Iowa, folks. And the most recent Des Moines Register and Bloomberg poll shows Clinton leading Sanders but just by two points in that state. That's well with the margin of error. Also a fraction of the lead she had in December. In New Hampshire Clinton is trailing Sanders by 14 points. In the latest Monmouth University poll.

Let's talk about all of it with Jennifer Granholm, former governor of Michigan, senior advisor to the pro-Hillary super PAC, Correct the Record. Thank you for joining me this evening.

JENNIFER GRANHOLM (D), FORMER MICHIGAN GOVERNOR: Hey, Poppy. Good to see you.

HARLOW: Let's start with a bit of irony. Let's look back in history. Since 1972, only one candidate has lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and still gone on to win the presidency. You know who that is. It is Bill Clinton. But in that case, two different candidates were the winners, one in Iowa, a different one in New Hampshire. Can Hillary Clinton afford to lose those to a single candidate, say, perhaps Bernie Sanders, and still have a chance?

GRANHOLM: Well, I'm not going to buy your assumption because I do think she is going to win especially things are looking good in Iowa. But I also know that, you know, things are really strong for her in the south, and so could she? Yes. Could she lose and go on to win? But I don't think that's going to happen. I think she is going to have a really good turnout in Iowa especially. And of course, New Hampshire, we knew was going to be tough because Bernie Sanders is a next door senator. But she is going to put up and fight all the way down to the very last minute in both states.

HARLOW: Your colleague at correct the record David Brock has called on Bernie Sanders to release his medical records. That is the move that Sanders --

GRANHOLM: He did not do that. He did not do that. Wait a second. He did not do that. He did not call for Bernie Sanders to release his medical records. That's not accurate. Bernie Sanders will do what he will do, but Brock did not do that. He released a statement saying that he did not do that.

[17:35:12] HARLOW: And Hillary Clinton responded to that this morning on the "STATE OF THE UNION" saying, look, a lot of people asked me to release my medical records. I want to tell you what the Sanders campaign said in response to how they interpreted it. They called it one of quote "the most desperate and vile attacks a man (INAUDIBLE). This was in a fundraising email to supported saying they are insinuating Bernie is too old and unhealthy to be the next president. Your response?

GRANHOLM: No. That's totally ridiculous. One, he did not do that. Two, he put out a statement saying he did not do that. Nobody is asking for that to happen. Obviously, candidates put out their medical -- you know, their medical records all the time. It's not a surprise. But it is interesting and I'm sure they're getting a lot of, you know, a lot good donations as a result of that, but he did not do that.

HARLOW: Right. Chelsea Clinton on the trail this week in New Hampshire. She went after senator Sanders especially on his health care plan suggesting that that single payer plan would take away health care, people's health care, Politifact went through that, said it's mostly false. I want you to hear how Sanders reacted this morning on "STATE OF THE UNION."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SANDERS: Chelsea Clinton is a very, very smart and capable young woman. I'm sure she loved her mother and she's trying to do everything she can to make sure her mom wins. That's pretty natural. I have got four kids, seven grandchildren who are rooting for me. But I was a little disappointed that what Chelsea said was simply not accurate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: And just to be clear for what Chelsea Clinton said in part. Senator Sanders wants to dismantle Obamacare, dismantle the chip program, dismantle Medicare and dismantle private insurance. Going on to say it would empower Republican governors to take away Medicaid. What is your response to Sanders saying this one is where he was disappointed?

GRANHOLM: Well, you know, I mean, the thing is if you look at what Bernie Sanders has introduced in multiple times, it's the single payer system. And it does take away these other programs in order to fund that system. So it's not inaccurate to say.

Now, what Hillary Clinton is saying is that, while she has obviously been a longtime supporter of universal healthcare, now we have the affordable care act in place and we don't want to take away, like the Republicans have been doing, you know, the president's -- one of the president's signature domestic achievements. And so, she is going to stand with him and improve on the affordable care act.

But they are very similar in the fact that they both believe in -- that in the richest country in the planet, our citizens should have access to affordable health care. And on that they agree.

HARLOW: It has been estimated widely by many that what Bernie Sanders is proposing would cost $15 trillion. Your team says that would involve raising taxes on the middle class nine percent. A surrogate for Sanders told me last night that is not the case at all. Where do you fall on that? You say they are very similar in a sense. Where do you fall on that? GRANHOLM: Yes. I mean, in the plan that he introduced, he had

something like a six plus percent tax on employers and a two-plus percent on employees to pay for it. You know, we don't know exactly what he is proposing because he hasn't put out a price tag or how he will pay for it. He says that's coming. And hopefully that comes before the Iowa caucuses. So you can only sort of infer that it's based upon the same kind of formula that you used before. But maybe it is not. We will have to wait and see. It is one of the reasons why I think it's fair to ask him to explain how he would pay for that. And my guess is, Poppy, that's going to be one of the subjects tonight that the moderators or the candidates raise.

HARLOW: You think? I think it might come up.

GRANHOLM: I think so.

HARLOW: Bernie Sanders camp has said they are going to release how they will pay for it before Iowa. So they have two weeks to do that.

Finally, I just want to get your take on these Iowa poll numbers that I think are fascinating, showing that Sanders, just like President Obama back in 2008, is leading Clinton among three key groups. First time caucus goers, independents and voters under 45. Are you worried this could be 2008 all over again when you talk about that energized young base?

GRANHOLM: Yes, I mean, of course, you always run like you're ten points behind any great candidate does that. And so she's going to continue to put the pedal to the metal. But notice that she leads in older voters. She leads in women. She, you know, she leads in people who self-identify, believe it or not, as liberal. One of the interesting things out of the poll that was recently released is that her highest favorability ratings are among people who earned $40,000 a year or less. And his highest favorability ratings are among those who earn $100,000 a year or more. So that's going to counterintuitive, I would think. But you just don't know what's going to happen until there's actually voting that occurs.

[17:40:15] HARLOW: And that's why we'll all have a job. So you can pontificate and opine on all of it.

GRANHOLM: Exactly. Blather. Blather.

HARLOW: Enjoy the debate tonight. Thank you for your time.

GRANHOLM: Thanks a lot, Poppy. Appreciate it.

HARLOW: Up next, President Obama definitely pleased with the Iran nuclear deal and the prisoner swap that took place yesterday. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: Inspectors will monitor Iran's key nuclear facilities 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.

(END VIDEO CLIP) HARLOW: We will look at what the deal could mean for the entire region now that Iran is no longer the target of those economic sanctions. What's ahead, next.

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[17:44:02] HARLOW: International economic sanctions now lifted and the world powers agree that Iran is playing by the rules agreed to last year in the nuclear agreement. As of this weekend, Iran is again re-engaging with the global community. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry calls the world a safer place as a result. But big question now is what does it mean for the rest of the region, the rest of the Middle East? What does it do for the balance of power?

Let's talk to Bob Baer about that, CNN intelligence and security analyst and a former CIA operatives.

When you look at this, Bob, for decades, you had Iran held at arm's length by pretty much the entire global community. Does this change the reality in the region given how dicey it all is, to say the least, right now? What kind of shift in power does this create?

BOB BAER, CNN INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY ANALYST: Poppy, absolutely. I can tell you for one, the Saudis are panicking. They are afraid it's going to be a full-on detente between the United States and Iran. The Saudis are probably afraid that we are going to come to some sort of accommodation on the side of Iraq without them. Iraq, we are essentially on this side of (INAUDIBLE) government and Baghdad. This is a huge change in the balance of power in the gulf. And you can look at the gulf, Arabs are going to react very badly to this. And they are truly panicking.

[17:45:21] HARLOW: But what do you do to the Saudi/U.S. relationship?

BAER: The Saudi/U.S. relationship is on the rocks.

HARLOW: Right.

BAER: You have the de facto king is Mohammed Bin Salma, young man, 30 years old. He is pursuing a war in Yemen which we don't believe that he can win. And a lot of Saudis are very upset about this. And there is instability in the royal family as well. And he is going to look at this as an existential threat to Saudi Arabia, that this, we're going to go back to the days of the shah and we are going to wind --.

HARLOW: So you got two key allies, Saudi and Israel who hate this?

BAER: Absolutely hate it. And let's not forget the Republicans. They hate this nuclear agreement. I can't understand why. It's a pretty good agreement. Ninety-eight percent of the uranium rich is being sent to Russia.

HARLOW: But to Russia, not to a friend - you know, to Russia, from more of a friend to Iran than the U.S.

BAER: It doesn't matter because the Iranians can't built any sort of nuclear capacity at this point. And with the monitoring, it's a good agreement. You know, for 10 to 15 years. I can't tell you what will happen after that. But, I just - for me, this is an enormous shift. When I was in 1983, 1984, 1985, the Iranians were killing us. They were killing us as late as 2007. And now all of a sudden we wander into their waters, two of our ships and they give them right back. I mean, this -- Poppy, this is huge.

HARLOW: I want you to listen to the president. Part of what President Obama said this morning.

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OBAMA: Today international inspectors are on the ground and Iran is being subjected to the most comprehensive intrusive inspection regime ever negotiated to monitor a nuclear program. Inspectors will monitor Iran's key nuclear facilities 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. For decades to come, inspectors will have access to Iran's entire nuclear supply chain. In other words, if Iran tries to cheat, if they try to build a bomb covertly, we will catch them.

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HARLOW: You were in the CIA, Bob, obviously not in the near-term but in the long-term, say three to five year, does anything change in terms of how the United States monitors Iran? Is there any sense that they can put more of their focus elsewhere at some point than on Iran?

BAER: Well, I think that, you know, eventually we are going to open an embassy there, four or five year, I can't tell you. It's a country we are going to understand better. The Iranians have moved on in their revolutionary phase which is very good for us. It's a country of 70 million people. And right now we're effectively allied with the Iranians in Iraq and I would even say Syria because we are serving as the Iranian air force by bombing Islamic state which is Iran's main enemy. Whether this comes out well or not, you know, it's the Middle East, who can predict?

HARLOW: That's a very good point.

Bob Baer, thank you very much. Stay with me. Much more with Bob in just a moment on those three contractors who have been what appears to be kidnapped in Iraq. We will have that in a moment.

But coming up next, shifting gears, a sneak peek at a fascinating CNN film that will literally take your breath away. We talk to the director of "Sunshine Superman," the film about the man behind the highs and lows of that, base jumping next.

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[17:51:41] HARLOW: Tonight, CNN films brings you "Sunshine Superman." It is a thrilling and intimate film about the extreme sport of BASE jumping. Through the lens of the Carl Boenish, father of the sport, watch as adrenaline seekers jump with nothing but a single parachute and develop an entirely new sport. Here's a look.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Carl's main focus was to share the wealth, share the feeling. To share that with people who didn't understand it. That thought we were absolutely crazy to do something like this. But once you see it, and you see the beauty of it, people tend to understand the motivate.

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HARLOW: The director of "Sunshine Superman," Marah Strauch, joins me now. Thank you so much for being with me. Congratulations on the film.

MARAH STRAUCH, DIRECTOR: Thank you so much.

HARLOW: This is the story, and I watched it. It was really compelling of a husband and wife team basically who essentially developed base jumping. But I'm interested for you. You're not a base jumper, right. Why did you want to make this film?

STRAUCH: My uncle was a base jumper. And he actually died in a car accident. But I saw - I found the footage, and I thought this is really beautiful. And I really hasn't seen anything like it. The footage was all in 16 millimeter. And as a filmmaker, I think I really responded to the fact that Carl was a filmmaker as well. And I loved the footage itself. I think that that's what really interested me. And then when I got to know Jean Boenish, I was really interested also in the love story of Carl and Jean Boenish.

HARLOW: How did you stumble across this historic footage? Because that's what I think make so much of the film is it so much of it is told through footage that he, himself, Carl Boenish, shot.

STRAUCH: Yes. I mean, in kind of uncovering my uncle's story, I came across and met Jean Boenish and, you know, she showed me all these amazing 16 millimeter footage that Carl had shot. And also, you know, the audio in the film was a large discovery, because you know, Carl is no longer with us, so to discover also that I could really tell the story not only through his footage, but also through his voice was really exciting to me.

HARLOW: So what's the takeaway? Because the sense that I got from this, Marah, is that this is a lot more than a movie about sort of the thrill and perils, frankly, of base jumping. What's the takeaway you want people to have?

STRAUCH: Well, you know, I think each person will have their own takeaway. I think that in getting to know Carl, you know, my takeaway was that, you know, is this isn't about base jumping. It's about in your own life, figuring out what could push you beyond your own limitations and really inspire you to kind of go beyond your comfort level in life, to do things that, you know, might push the limits a little bit. So I don't think it's really a film just for base jumpers. I think it's a film for anybody that's, you know, willing to kind of explore in life. HARLOW: We know that base jumping as we're seeing it here in one of

the many national parks, base jumping is illegal under federal law, in almost all national parks. There have been 275 base jumping fatalities since 1981. You take issue, though, Marah, with people focusing on the danger of the sport. Why is that?

STRAUCH: I don't really take issue. I just think that - I think that there's a lot more to it. And I think that a lot of sports are really dangerous. I mean, one of the things that is interesting thing about the danger in national parks specifically is because it's, you know, quote "illegal," which actually it's not illegal because it's not sanctioned by the national parks, it actually is more dangerous, because base jumpers are often jumping at night. They are often jumping at times that are not the best time to base jumps.

So I do think there are safer ways to BASE jump. And I think that, you know, I think it's more of a topic of understanding the sport itself and that making it as safe as possible. I think that making it illegal, which it's actually not, or making it not sanctioned, actually creates an environment where base jumpers are under more hazardous conditions.

So I think there, you know, skydiving is not the safest sport, nor is, you know, there are certain kinds of skiing. I just think it's about looking at it logically and not a knee jerk reaction.

HARLOW: It is fascinating and I encourage people to watch it here on CNN. I really enjoyed it. I knew nothing about the sports. And don't think it has gotten me to agree to BASE jump, but it is certainly gotten me intrigued with it.

Marah, thank you very much. And congratulations.

STRAUCH: Thank you so much, Poppy.

HARLOW: You are not going to want to miss this heart-raising films, "Sunshine Superman," airs tonight, 9:00 eastern, only right here on CNN. We'll be right back.

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