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Iowa Poll: Sen. Cruz Pulls Ahead of Trump; FBI Recovers Items from San Bernardino Lake; ISIS Makes Billions From Oil Fields, Loot; Leaked Cruz Audio Has Trump Ready to Attakck; Gillibrand on Paycheck Fairness Act. Aired 7-8p ET

Aired December 12, 2015 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[19:00:13] POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Top of the hour, 7:00 p.m. Eastern. So glad you're with us.

Breaking political news right now, just in to CNN -- brand-new numbers from the important early caucus state of Iowa, Donald Trump no longer the front-runner in that state. Trump now trailing by 10 points behind Texas Senator Ted Cruz. This is according to a just-released "Des Moines Register"/Bloomberg News poll.

Cruz at 31 percent of support form voters who say they are likely to vote Republicans in the caucuses, 21 percent for Donald Trump. The state of Iowa is now number two.

Let's bring in CNN politics executive editor Mark Preston. He joins us from Las Vegas, inside the debate hall, where it will all go down on Tuesday.

Mark, talk to me about how big this really is.

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLTICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: It's gigantic and something that we've been looking forward to see if Ted Cruz, the conservative Texas senator, would make his move in Iowa and would it be connecting with those voters.

In fact, it has. What we're seeing across the board now, Poppy, is that Cruz is winning with key constituencies in Iowa. These are constituencies that you need to win the caucus. He's winning social conservatives, conservatives themselves, financial conservatives, just doing well with libertarians.

Now, his state party chairman, Matt Schulz, has been telling me that for months that they have been quietly building their network across the state and at some point, it would pop, and today we've seen it pop, Poppy.

HARLOW: I've spent time in Iowa covering the last presidential election there and what I love about Iowans is it's such an engaged electorate. What you see there is the critical evangelical vote.

And there are a lot of questions about how Trump would do in terms of the evangelicals. I think we have the latest polling we can pull up for you. But what was it about the evangelical vote do you think that helped push Ted Cruz way ahead of Trump?

PRESTON: Well, it's not just the evangelical vote that is helping Ted Cruz, who is an avowed Christian and really talks about his faith on the stump. And not just Ted Cruz, Poppy, but his father, himself, goes out, a preacher, goes out, and really does a lot of stumping and talks to groups across the country, specifically in Iowa as well. But we've seen him at the demise of the fall right now of Dr. Ben Carson who was doing so well.

Ted Cruz has captured part of that Carson vote and really has increased his lead gigantically at this point. So, you see Ted Cruz who's gaining momentum in Iowa. The question is, though, does that momentum hold as we head into the caucuses. The caucuses is February 1st.

I have to tell you right away, though, Donald Trump has already disavowed this poll, saying that it's not something that we should be surprised that it would be something he would say.

HARLOW: OK, right, exactly.

Let's pull the poll up. The 10-point spread now, the lead that Ted Cruz has there.

Mark Preston, you were in the debate hall Tuesday night. It all happens on stage there. What does this mean for Trump in terms of whether he will go after Cruz on that stage?

PRESTON: Well, he certainly has already gone after Ted Cruz and he has said that he realized at some point Ted Cruz was going to be critical of him. We've seen that in the past week. Ted Cruz at a private meeting with donors, came out, was critical of Donald Trump, and question whether Donald Trump should have the judgment to be able to be in control of our nuclear arsenal.

Now, Ted Cruz came out publicly and said that he likes Donald Trump: But Trump said that he will go after Ted Cruz. He had said that about everyone else in that debate stage, and Donald Trump does stick to his word.

He will end up going after Ted Cruz. The question is, though, will we see Ted Cruz engage Donald Trump on the stage Tuesday night here at the Venetian in Las Vegas? In many ways, if Ted Cruz does go after him, Ted Cruz might be baited to the point where he does have to engage with Donald Trump, Poppy.

HARLOW: Engage.

Thank you very much, Mark Preston, live for us from Las Vegas tonight.

I want to go straight to CNN political commentator Ryan Lizza, also the Washington correspondent for "The New Yorker".

Ryan, if you're Donald Trump and you're looking at this number -- I know he said he doesn't believe this poll -- but he's ten points behind in the early state and that state matters for momentum. What policy do you go after Cruz about on Tuesday night in the debate?

RYAN LIZZA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: That's a great question, Poppy.

You know, he actually -- Donald Trump has started to do it already and it's a big issue in Iowa, ethanol. Trump has come out in support, of course, of corn-based fuel called ethanol, big issue in Iowa. Every Republican and Democratic candidate who goes to Iowa, eventually winds up supporting it, because it's a big deal in the local industry there.

Cruz is against it. Trump is a big supporter of federal subsidies for ethanol. So, I think that's the first issue.

[19:05:02] And, you know, I think he might go -- I think the second issue if he goes after him is on NSA reform. We have seen Marco Rubio and Cruz split on this. Cruz supported the reforms they made to the telephone metadata program. Rubio didn't.

I have not heard where Trump is on that issue. It's an important issue in terms of national security, which Trump has been talking about a lot. So, I think those are two spots to watch.

HARLOW: All right. But let's remember that it was not long ago that Trump signed this pledge not to run as an independent. He did it very publicly.

LIZZA: Yes.

HARLOW: And in recent days, he appears to be leaving certainly at least some wiggle room for that. Here's what he told our Don Lemon this week.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: What do you mean, you say, if they break this pledge, then you'll break the pledge? What do you mean by that?

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, if they don't treat me with a certain amount of decorum and respect, if they don't treat me as the front-runner, by far the front-runner, if the playing field is not level, then certainly all options are open. But that's nothing I want to do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: All right. So does that make an independent -- does this new poll make the independent run a little more likely?

LIZZA: I don't really see what the Republican could actually do that would trigger that event, right? I mean, possibly if there's a contested convention and some of the leadership in the Republican Party puts the thumb on the scales to move the delegates towards someone who is not Donald Trump, maybe he could take his marbles and run as a third-party candidate. It's the sort of threat he's held over the party for months now. I think they should just ignore it. You know, we are a couple months

away. He might lose Iowa and fade and not be a threat anymore. If he doesn't do well in the primaries, his case for being a strong independent candidate is not strong anyway and he may not do it at all.

I think the party should just realize they are not doing anything to rig the election. And so, there's not going to be a real triggering event for him anyway.

If I were Donald Trump, I would be a lot more worried about Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucus than anything that the Republican establishment is about to do.

HARLOW: Yes, we'll see. The poll is not something that he gives much credence to, Ryan.

LIZZA: Poppy, just so you and the viewers know, this poll is considered the gold standard in Iowa.

HARLOW: Exactly.

LIZZA: The pollster is considered the best pollster in Iowa.

HARLOW: Yes, it absolutely is, the gold standard. There you have it, Ted Cruz ahead of Donald Trump by 10 points.

Ryan Lizza, thank you, my friend.

LIZZA: Thanks, Poppy.

HARLOW: The Republican primetime debate just three days away. It is Tuesday night in Las Vegas, remarkable timing to hear from the candidates. It is the last GOP debate of 2015. You will only see it here on CNN.

CNN partnering with the Salem Radio networks on the debate. You can find it on the radio on your area. Go to salemmedia.com.

Coming up to terror. The fight against ISIS and another terror organization.

How can a battle be won? I'll speak with an expert who says it is time to rethink the whole idea of what winning means.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:11:08] HARLOW: New clues surfacing today in one of the deadliest terror attacks ever on U.S. soil. The FBI says divers found several items today in the lake in San Bernardino, that they have been searching now for days. It is just a few miles from the massacre took place, 14 people killed, 22 more wounded. Officials say the shooters were near that lake at some point.

Our Ana Cabrera joins me now live from the location in San Bernardino.

They are being very, very tight-lipped on even what they are looking for specifically, aren't they?

ANA CABRERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: They are only saying they are looking for evidence that may be connected to this investigation. I can tell you, Poppy, they have been here all day and they are just wrapping up their search.

But there is still at least one diver out there in the water, possibly two. I just saw another hook up its head. We've seen up to five divers in the water total today. We're learning a little bit more about how they are conducting this search.

We understand that they are using a grid search. They are using metal detectors and this water that is extremely murky requires special protective gear as well as specialized goggles that allow them to see what is black water. There's not much visibility underneath. So, that's part of the reason why this search is going so slowly.

Now, investigators have said they have found a number of items but they won't specify what those items are and they cannot confirm that they are indeed part of this case. They, of course, will need to do further investigation on some of these items to determine whether or not they are indeed connected to the investigation, but they have told us that Tashfeen Malik and Syed Farook were apparently seen in this park area on the day of that attack, Poppy.

HARLOW: What about the former neighbor of Farook, the male shooter. I mean, Enrique Marquez, he's gotten so much attention. No charges have been filed though.

CABRERA: That's right now. And it's now been ten days since the shooting itself happened. But we understand he's been voluntarily providing information to investigators. And what he's saying is really quite chilling.

He even told investigators, according to law enforcement sources who have been telling us at CNN, that he helped Farook make some pipe bombs, that two of them were more or less experimenting with whether or not they could make these devices and that was in the past. He's told investigators that he and Farook were planning some kind of attack or terror plot on U.S. soil back in 2012.

We know that this neighbor and friend of Farook's had provided those AR-15s that were used in the shooting. Why he hasn't been arrested at this point, we don't know. But investigators are staying very tight- lipped about what they plan to do moving forward in regards to Mr. Marquez -- Poppy.

HARLOW: Ana, thank you very much live for us in San Bernardino tonight.

Also, as we look at the bigger fight against terror, the United States has 3,500 troops in Iraq. But the fight against ISIS remains largely an air campaign. Experts are saying that the U.S. and other members of the worldwide coalition should be prepared for a war that will last many, many years and be quite protracted. In fact, we might have to redefine what winning this war will look like, so says Aaron David Miller. He joins us now. He is vice president for New Initiatives and distinguished scholar for the Woodrow International Center.

Thank you for being with me, Aaron.

AARON DAVID MILLER, WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER: Pleasure to be here, Poppy.

HARLOW: Let's read part of your "Wall Street Journal" op-ed this week. Quote, "We can no more exclusively win the war against jihadi terror than we can win the war against crimes or drugs."

That is a very frustrating analogy to make for Americans. Make the case.

MILLER: Well, I mean, it is frustrating but we're not in kindergarten. I mean, we can be told by our leaders and particularly by our politicians, all of them running for office is that this, frankly, is not some kind of ten day or even a year slam dunk.

[19:15:07] I mean, the fact is, we've been fighting this war, think about it now, for 14 years since 9/11. Some would argue 20 years before. That's twice the number of years and then some, Poppy, that it took the allies to defeat the axis powers during the Second World War.

And by the looks of things, jihadi terror, frankly, is actually thriving. I mean, attacks against France, the United States, Russia, all within the last six weeks.

So, I'm not suggesting that we're in decline or that we should be defeatists in outlook. I just think that our leaders, the president, the R's that are running for president, and the D's need to level with the American public and I think, frankly, they can handle it.

You've got a broken, angry dysfunctional Middle East that is continuing to spew out all kinds of hatred against the West. You've got broken states in Syria and Iraq, empty spaces, access to guns and now, we hear access to the capacity to produce passports.

HARLOW: Right.

MILLER: So I just think we have to redefine -- America -- look, Americans love Hollywood endings. We love comprehensive, definitive solutions. And frankly, right now, against jihadi terror, I don't think there is one.

HARLOW: So, Aaron, part of this is also how Muslims are treated in this country, right? And there are experts who have said, look, if you discriminate against them, you play right into what ISIS wants.

I want to read you part of what my colleague Fareed Zakaria wrote in his op-ed in "The Washington Post" this week. Quote, "This is the real danger of Trumps rhetoric. It forces people who want to assimilate, who see themselves as having multiple identities into a single box. The effects of his rhetoric have already poisoned the atmosphere. Muslim Americans are more fearful and will isolate themselves more in the broader community, we'll know them less and trust them less. A downward spiral of segregation will set in."

Do you agree? Does the rhetoric from Donald Trump this week about temporarily banning Muslims, does it make it harder to fight ISIS by alienating Muslims here?

MILLER: I don't think there's any question about that. Not only is it impractical and frankly inconsistent with all of our values, however imperfect our efforts have been over the years and however deep some of the existing prejudices may be and how frightened we are of the immigrant stranger.

The fact is, I mean, think about it. I mean, you already have in San Bernardino demonstrated an existing pool of Muslim Americans who are influenced by this jihadi ideology and I think creating stigma, segregating and banning them from entry, I would argue, is only going to make the problem worse.

HARLOW: But that's exactly what a Trump supporter, Aaron, told me earlier in the show. Paula from New Hampshire said, look what happened in California. We have to keep people like that out. She groups them together.

MILLER: Well, there's no question that we have to take a very tough look at our visa waiver policies, particularly in view of the passport issue, which has now come to light. But that doesn't mean that we need to or should or that it's morally or practically relevant or right to discriminate against an entire religion and certainly American citizens.

We are going to need American Muslims in this fight and the reality is I think we have to understand that and do our own bit of recruiting not to alienate, not to segregate. I mean, look, Poppy, this is a long war to begin with.

You want to increase the possibility of additional attacks? Well, then you hunker down and you stigmatize and you alienate. And, frankly, over time, that's going to get us into a great deal of trouble. I'm simply calling --

HARLOW: All right.

MILLER: -- for more realism in our debates, particularly among our politicians on this issue.

HARLOW: Well, we'll be listening to what they all say on Tuesday night in the GOP debate. Aaron David Miller, thank you very much. You can read his fascinating op-ed in "The Wall Street Journal." Appreciate it.

Coming up next, ISIS -- how does ISIS fund itself? Wait until you hear the extraordinary amount of money ISIS raised this year alone. Experts now finding antiquities on sale online helping ISIS make tens and millions of dollars, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [19:23:05] HARLOW: ISIS remains the single best-funded terrorist group in history with an estimated income of $1 million to $2 million a day. A CNNMoney investigation finds the bulk of that money comes from stealing taxes or forcing bribes from local populations along with oil smuggling.

But the terror group is increasingly turning to an age-old source of cash in the Middle East, the stealing and smuggling of ancient antiquities.

Drew Griffin reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DREW GRIFFIN, CNN SENIOR INVESTIGATIVE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The evidence is already popping up unsolicited on computer screens and cell phones across the world.

Pictures like these, offering ancient antiquities in a fire sale from a land on fire. Roman coins, golden earrings, museum pieces ripped off the walls in Mosul.

The seller, ISIS. The buyer, the highest bidder.

MICHAEL DANTI, AMERICAN SCHOOLS OF ORIENTAL RESEARCH CULTURAL HERITAGE: They loot everything that is not nailed down.

GRIFFIN: Michael Danti is academic director of American School of Oriental Research. He consults for the State Department on what he sees as is' systematic looting as the Middle East's ancient past.

DANTI: They actively promote looting as a way to generate money. They don't make this a secret. It's done very overtly.

GRIFFIN: In February, ISIS destroyed statues at the Mosul museum. In October, it was the 1,800-year-old arch in Palmyra blown up, images that caused worldwide condemnation.

But there is something ISIS isn't showing you, and that's what it's keeping and selling.

This Hercules is a museum piece. This piece of pottery from a repository in Raqqa still bearing its registration number. It is the smaller items that pose the biggest problems. Danti shows us Roman gold coins and ancient glass, even figurines most likely robbed from graves or libraries or private collections -- low-end items that can fetch thousands to tens and thousands of dollars and flow across old smuggling routes without much trouble.

[19:25:12] Yes, you could easily put this inside of a laptop bag.

This collection being sold could literally be walking out of Syria right now if it hasn't already.

DANTI: With antiquities, a single trafficker can walk across the border, slip through a hole in the Turkish border fence, empty their pockets and make $30,000, $40,000 on the antiquities that they have carried across.

GRIFFIN: Last May, U.S. Special Forces raided a Syrian outpost and killed an ISIS leader named Abu Sayyaf. It turns out, he was an ISIS money man in charge of a massive smuggling operation. Evidence found helped coalition forces target refineries, oil pipelines and, finally, started attacking those tanker trucks used to haul oil out.

But the raid also found clues that pointed to a business-like system of looting antiquities, actual permits giving grave robbers, archeological scavengers and thieves, ISIS-issued permits to sell.

BONNIE MAGNESS-GARDINER, FBI ART THEFT DIVISION: You can see from the satellite photographs, for example, that it is industrial-scale looting.

GRIFFIN: Matthew Levitt ISIS financing from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The fact that stolen antiquities are becoming a bigger source of funding shows success in containing other sources of ISIS cash but the terror group, he says, is resilient.

(on camera): As oil revenues drop or get hampered, the hunt for antiquities and smuggling and permit issuing increases.

MATTHEW LEVITT, WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY: Think of it as squeezing a balloon, not hard enough to pop it but hard enough to squeeze it. You squeeze it here, it's going to expand someplace else. We have seen the past and we can expand to see now if they will expand into other directions.

GRIFFIN (voice-over): And what's not being contained or squeezed or even slowed is the ideology of ISIS that continues to spread.

Levitt believes the money will continue to flow to ISIS even if it means digging holes into the ground to find it.

Drew Griffin, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: Wow, fascinating report. Drew, thank you for that.

ISIS, though, making a lot of money off a lot more than just antiquities. We're talking oil, extortion, kidnapping and taxes. Yes, taxes funding the terror group war machine, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19L30:11] HARLOW: So how has ISIS become the best funded terrorist organization ever? A CNN Money fascinating investigation takes a look at that revealing how that terror group raked in $2 billion last year alone.

We're talking about taxes, oil being sold, kidnapping, bank looting as their main sources of income. The journalist behind the story, Jose Pagliery joins me now. Also with me, Bob Baer, our CNN intelligence and security analyst, former CIA operative. Jose, to you first. Fascinating reporting. How did you get to the $2 billion number, that they made that much money in 2014?

JOSE PAGLIERY, CNN MONEY CORRESPONDENT: Let's talk about the sourcing here. This is U.S. treasury. Several military scholars, a lot of academics are paying attention to the region that have resources inside ISIS territory. And so let's run, you know, what makes up these numbers.

Some of that is taxes. That's the big bulk of it. We're talking about $500 million - $360 million or more last year. And then, we've got oil, this is oil that ISIS is controlling on the ground, pulling it out of the ground and selling it on the black market. That's another $500 million. And then this was huge, they looted banks all across Iraq, some 90 banks or more and they took $500 million to $1 billion of cash and gold out of these banks. And then on top of that, it's kidnapping and ransom. And so what we're talking about here it's not just some small terrorist organization.

We're talking about something that resembles more like a fully functioning state.

HARLOW: It's kind of amazing to me that you can get to these numbers. This is like auditing a company and yet this stuff can't be stopped. Bob Baer, to you. Now we see how they have rapidly become this incredibly well financially endowed terrorist organization. Who is buying the oil?

ROBERT BAER, CNN INTELLIGENCE & SECURITY ANALYST: The oil is very easy to smuggle out. You just simply drive it across the border into Iraq or up to the Turkish border in trucks, small trucks, big trucks. When you drive these roads, they are slick with oil. It's amazing. I've been up there a lot. This is an old, established commerce and once ISIS took over, the major fields in the east, (INAUDIBLE) the French company, they just started pumping it. They kept a lot of the same engineers and they really have not slowed down at all.

As Jose said, this is a well-funded state that's not going away and you simply can't bomb this state into oblivion.

HARLOW: Sure.

BAER: I think eventually the Islamic state will collapse under its cruelty but in the meantime it's well funded.

HARLOW: But there has been a lot of heat on Turkey for purchasing the oil, right?

BAER: Well, I mean, look, the Syrian oil traders that I know have no - they don't like Turkey but they claim that the president's son Erdogan's son is the major guy running this mafia. I've heard this over and over again, try to prove it, I don't think you can. But that is certainly that commerce has been in there since 1990. And Erdogan has been involved since then.

It wouldn't surprise me if this reports are true. HARLOW: And obviously, Turkey is pushing back against that. Jose, let's talk about taxes.

PAGLIERY: All right.

HARLOW: How on earth does an illegitimate terrorist organization tax some eight million civilians that live under their reign?

PAGLIERY: So let's keep in mind what they're doing here. They've taken over a huge swath of territory.

HARLOW: Sure.

PAGLIERY: And the people who live there, they still need to make a living, right? They still work. They have homes. And so what these soldiers have done is they formed a de-facto state and said, look, we're the bullies here. We're the mafia. If you're on this road, you have to pay a toll. If you make income, we charge you 10 percent. If you have a business, it's 10 percent business tax, two percent sales tax. They have a special tax on Christians called the jizia.

HARLOW: Wow.

PAGLIERY: If you buy pharmaceuticals in Mosul, you pay a huge tax on that, too. And so this is how they are squeezing money out of the people and the population. Which is why if you take this logic one step further, this is why a bombing campaign will only choke off a part of their income. Because as long as they hold land, as long as they can control these people, they can squeeze money out of them.

HARLOW; That's a great point. They are not going to try to hit the civilians and target all of the civilians paying into this. Bob, Jose's story mentioned something really fascinating and that is that ISIS has sort of abandoned the Al Qaeda model of relying on rich donors in the Arabian Gulf. Why a different tactic by ISIS?

[19:35:05]

BAER: Well, as Jose said, they have a country - I mean, they can oppose taxes. There is Islamic tax that goes back to the Koran, five percent. That's a lot of money on eight million people. And we still don't know, by the way, how much money is coming out of the gulf. I mean, I have my suspicions but a lot of people in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the gulf believe that the Islamic state is holding back this Shia menace in Damascus and Baghdad.

So they do have sympathizers. I mean, we really have to look at the symptoms, what has created the Islamic state and not just leave it as a terrorist organization.

HARLOW: That's a great point. Jose, thank you. Fascinating reporting. I would push you all to cnnmoney.com and read Jose's piece. Bob Baer, thanks for the insight, as always.

Coming up, should the government be the one to dictate how much companies pay their workers? And what about this big battle over the $15 minimum wage fight? In this week's American opportunity, I sit down with the CEO of Sam's Club, one of the biggest retailers in America who talk minimum wage for people and their paychecks.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROSALIND BREWER, PRESIDENT AND CEO, SAM'S CLUB: We pride ourselves that 75 percent of our leadership started off as cashiers and cart pushers. We won't change that. So we've got to develop folks and we also have to make sure that they are paid effectively.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: In this week's American opportunity, you hear it from politicians all the time, the middle class is shrinking. It's true. A new Pew research study this week shows middle class Americans now make up less than half of the nation's population. It also shows more Americans moving into the higher ranges of the upper class and lower ranges of the lower class.

So a bigger gap between rich and poor.

Why does it matter? One word. Growth. There is research that shows that increase in income and equality can stunt overall economic growth. This week, I sat down with the woman at the helm of one of America's biggest retailers, Sam's Club, it's a part of Walmart.

[19:40:00]

We spoke about a lot, including the conversation over minimum wage and diversity in the upper echelons of corporate America.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW (on camera): I'm interested in what you've seen in terms of the impact of states and cities raising the minimum wage. Some of them vary significantly from the federal minimum wage. Walmart has referenced higher employee costs as they raise wages across the board. What have you seen?

BREWER: We think it's important, first and foremost, to invest in our associates. We said that we're going to do that. We're committed to it. We think it's the right thing to do. So we've done that this year.

We'll take another increase next year in our wages. There are states that are escalating. I think the next phase of it, though, Poppy, is to make sure that we're getting the workforce developed because the wages are increasing and we want that talent to move up along with it.

HARLOW: So what does that take?

BREWER: First of all, it takes two things. One, we would love for k- 12 programs deliver a better product. That has to happen. We can't replace that. But then we are looking for what we can do for career pathways and what does it mean when you join a company like Walmart. Can we develop and train you into our leadership? We pride ourselves that 75 percent of our leadership started off as cashiers and cart pushers. We won't change that. So we've got to develop folks and we also have to make sure that they are paid effectively.

HARLOW: You said that you're going to see another increase next year. To what? Do we know those numbers yet?

BREWER: No, we don't know exactly. We've made some commitments and we're going to stick to those. We'll tell you that just retail math is important for us to develop in our associates, helping them to understand the automation that is happening inside our buildings. Our cash registers are getting a lot more technical. The use of devices. If your members and customers are using devices, your workforce has to use that as well.

So any training and development we can do to help them bridge what they are not getting outside of our company, we'd like to do that.

HARLOW: So there are many different numbers being thrown out there. The president has called for $10.10 as a minimum. In the fast food face, there's the fight for 15. As you sit there in the corner office and this is a big part of obviously your - I know it is - of how you're thinking about your business, where do you fall on that? What's the right number?

BREWER: Yes, so we haven't put our finger on a number. I'll be real honest with you. We haven't put our finger on a number but what we have said is that we're going to keep looking at this thing. We're going to evaluate to make sure that we got fair pay for the work that our associates are doing for us.

So we didn't actually put number on it but we're looking at that. We will constantly look at fair and equitable pay for our associates.

When you look at paid family leave, I just did an interview with Senator Kristen Gillibrand and she's been a huge advocate of this.

BREWER: She has been.

HARLOW: She wants the government to do it through a payroll tax that everyone pays into. Carly Fiorina, a former chief executive at HP and now running for the presidency as a Republican, says it should be up to companies, not to the government. I'm interested in Sam's Clubs's policy on that and where you fall.

BREWER: So our policy, we do have all of the paid leave processes that most companies have. I would tell you that in all of our discussions with our associates, our paid practices, their time off, you know, we do a fine job of that. I mean, there's vacation paid leave. So we're looking at how do we align with the associates and we actually haven't put a strong thinking around that but will tell you that we think about that as we think about what is the next phase, what is it going to cost for us to employ the next phase of associates.

HARLOW: Because more and more companies are saying - some of the tech companies, four months.

BREWER: Yes.

HARLOW: Parental leave.

BREWER: We'll consistently look at it. Right now, I will tell you that that is not something that our associates give us feedback on that they are not - feel like we are not in the right competitive space there.

HARLOW: I guess also what I'm very interested in, is it the government's role? Do you want to government to come in and say this is what you got to do or do you think it's incumbent upon companies to figure it out?

BREWER: You know, I do think it's incumbent upon companies to figure it out. I'm not quite sure it works well when the government steps in. Because they don't live it every day like we do. We are the closest representation for our associates. We should know, take the action and we should set the policy.

HARLOW: You are a rarity in the corner office in America and it's something that so many people want to see changed. Not only are you a female CEO, you're a minority CEO. Where do you fall on who has to make the change and how it is going to happen so that there are more women like you represented in the top echelons of corporate America?

BREWER: Right. So I totally agree with you. But it starts with the top of many companies. It has to start with top leadership. I can tell you that even with myself, I have to live it also.

[19:45:00]

My executive team is very diverse and I make that a priority. I demand it of my team and within the structure and then every now and then you have to nudge your partners and you have to speak up and speak out and I try to use my platform for that to remind people, I try to set an example. I mentor many women inside my company and outside the company because I think it's important.

HARLOW: And in hiring, do you demand it when you're hiring for the top spots?

BREWER: Absolutely. And not only that, I talked to my suppliers about it. Just today we met with the supplier and the entire other side of the table was all Caucasian male. That was interesting.

HARLOW: What did you say?

BREWER: Well, I decided not to talk about it directly with his folks in the room because there were actually no female like levels down. I'm going to have to place a call to him.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: You got to call it like you see it. Rosalind Brewer, thank you for that.

We just heard from a CEO who has to weigh the cost of raising employee pay against the company's bottom line and ultimately jobs. What about Washington's fight over raising the federal minimum wage? Up next, I sit down with New York Senator Kristen Gillibrand.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We have to stop this notion that we want someone to work 40 hours a week and still live in poverty. That is not the American dream. That is not who we are as Americans.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: The fight over minimum wage. The fight for $15 an hour. We have seen protesters take to the streets in cities across America demanding a $15 minimum wage but is that really sustainable without significant job losses?

I sat down this week with New York Senator Kristen Gillibrand. I asked her about that and the impact of the growing income gap.

[19:50:01]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW (on camera): The minimum wage debate is on-going across the country. It's huge right now, very big in this city, New York state, the fight for 15 among fast food workers.

Look, I talked to a lot of economists about this. I talked to Warren Buffett about this who told me as much as I would like the see everyone make as much as $20 an hour, it's not feasible without millions of job losses. I'm interested in where you fall on that fight.

SEN. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D), NEW YORK: Well, I think $15 an hour should be the minimum. We have to stop the notion that we want someone to work 40 hours a week and still live in poverty. That is not the American dream. That's not who we are as Americans. So you need to have a living wage. And $15 an hour gets you above the poverty line if you have two kids and that makes a difference. Because a lot of these low-wage workers are women - women with children. Two-thirds of minimum wage workers are women. And it is fundamentally related to this paid leave issue.

HARLOW: How do the numbers work, right? When you just come down to the nuts and bolts and the economics of it all, does it mean I'm paying more for my hamburger? Does it mean the company that makes that hamburger, is their shareholders are getting less? Where does it fall?

GILLBRAND: So every company makes their own judgment. They made decide their CEO doesn't need more than $10 million each year as compensation. They may decide I'm not paying dividends to my shareholders every year. They may decide I'm going to have a happier, healthier and more productive workforce and retain them longer so I'm going to save my money on not have to retrain new workers because I lose them all the time. So every business can make their own judgment.

HARLOW: What happens to this country if the income gap keeps growing?

GILLIBRAND: It's a missed opportunity. And if you don't see the middle class growing and the middle class rising, if someone is working 40 hours a week and can't find their way to the middle class because they are not earning a living wage, it's a huge problem, and what it means is it is a drag on the economy, it's a drag on productivity, it's a drag on entrepreneurialism and success. Our country is less strong. It could easily result in that, but more importantly we are not as important otherwise. We are not thriving like we could be.

When our economy thrives, it's when the middle class is thriving. It's when entrepreneurism, innovation is part of every kid when they graduate from college, when they say, I'm going to build something, I'm going to invent something. That's the American story. That's the American dream.

HARLOW: You have proposed a Paycheck Fairness Act. And it's still the case, as you and I sit here today, overall women still make 78 cents on the dollar to men, according to the Bureau of Labor and statistics. You proposed the Paycheck Fairness Act. I'm interested in sort of how we get there. Do you think there should be public disclosure that companies over x amounts of employees have to publicly disclose what they pay men and women in the same position?

GILIBRAND; Yes, our Paycheck Fairness Act is really a disclosure bill. It does a couple of things, it says if you talk to your male colleague about how much you make, how much you (INAUDIBLE), you can't be fired for that. There are companies today if employees are discussing how much they make, they could be fired.

So it creates protection and it also creates incentives for a company to actually post, how much does my cameraman and women earn? How much does my assistant earn? And just check so that you're actually looking at creating transparency to say, is it really fair?

HARLOW: So incentives for that. Mandated, would you mandate it?

GILLIBRAND: It is not mandated. It's all about rewarding good behavior.

HARLOW: Should we mandate it?

GILLIBRAND: Disclosure. Yes. I think it's an excellent idea to mandate disclose of title, salary and then so the companies can then begin to discuss, are we fair with both female and male employees doing the same job. So I think that's a good idea that we could totally talk about.

The Paycheck Fairness Act doesn't go that far, it just incentivizes this kind of disclosure and transparency but makes it illegal to fire someone if they're talking about it.

HARLOW: Do you think we're at a tipping point.

GILLIBRAND: In this discussion there's something called the tipping point when there is at least three women on a corporate board when you get to 30 percent. We call 30 percent the tipping point. What happens on the corporate board, there's 10 people and you have three women, the women are listened to more. They are less talked over. They are less discounted. And so we're not at the tipping point yet in Congress. So my goal is to get us there. And one of the things I do in my free time is to support women candidates across the country, to ask them to come off the sidelines.

HARLOW: We have yet to see a woman hold the Oval Office. Would you like to be president one day?

GILLIBRAND: Well, I would like to Hillary Clinton to be president one day.

HARLOW: I know. But I'm asking if would you like to be president?

GILLIBRAND: I don't aspire to it.

HARLOW: Really?

GILLIBRAND: Yes. I feel really grateful that I get to serve where I serve. The Senate is a place where I can start a national debate on any topic, whether it's campus sexual violence, whether it's military sexual assault, whether it's paid leave, it's a place where I can have this debate and talk about it across the state with my constituents but also across the nation.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: My thanks to Senator Kristen Gillibrand.

[19:55:02]

Just ahead, more on the breaking political news tonight, out of Iowa. There's a new front-runner in the Republican nomination process in that state.

Also ahead, the number you will want to keep in mind when you hear who pushed Donald Trump out of the top spot. And don't forget the last Republican debate of the year is only three days away. It is Tuesday night in Las Vegas, only on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: Tonight a brand new poll out from the important early caucus state of Iowa. Donald Trump no longer the front-runner in that state. According to just-released "Des Moines Register/Bloomberg News" poll numbers, Ted Cruz, Senator Ted Cruz holds 31 percent of support from likely Republican voters. 21 percent for Donald Trump.

The ten-point divide now and that brings us to tonight's number which is 50. That is how many days are left before the critical Iowa caucuses. In less than two months, all eyes will be on Iowa as the Republican presidential candidates vie for delegates.

But before the Ted Cruz campaign celebrates too much and pops the bubbly, remember at this point going into the 2012 caucuses, Newt Gingrich was ahead in the polls. Just 50 days to go.

Don't miss Donald Trump tomorrow morning with our very own Jake Tapper on CNN's "STATE OF THE UNION" 9:00 a.m. Eastern , only right here. But first, ahead right now, a CNN all-star tribute, a star-studded television event hosted by our own Anderson Cooper.

An amazing group of men and women honored for their remarkable acts of giving. You will also tonight meet the 2015 hero of the year.

Thank you so much for being with me this evening. I will see you back here tomorrow night. "CNN HEROES: AN ALL STAR TRIBUTE" begins right now.