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ISIS Video Threatening Russia; Major Offensive Operation Sinjar Underway; Kurds Launch Offensive To Take Back Sinjar; Interview with Gen. John Allen on U.S. ISIS Strategy; Operation Underway to Free Sinjar. Aired 1-1:30p ET

Aired November 12, 2015 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, I'm Wolf Blitzer. It's 1:00 p.m. here in Washington, 8:00 p.m. in Cairo, 9:00 p.m. in Moscow. Wherever you're watching from around the world, thanks very much for joining us.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

BLITZER: And let's get right to the breaking news. A new threat from ISIS, this time against Russia. ISIS has just released a nearly five- minute long video and audio statement saying it would attack Russia, quote, "very soon." The video is titled, soon, very soon the blood will spill like an ocean. that video's release comes at the same time as word that Russia may be planning to retaliate for the crash of its metrojet airliner in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula killing all 224 people on board.

Intelligence agencies have come to believe ISIS' Sinai offshoot planted the bomb on that plane before takeoff.

Our Senior International Correspondent Nima Elbagir is joining us now live from Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt. And our Chief International Correspondent Jim Sciutto is here in Washington. Nima, what more have we learned about this latest threat from ISIS directly to Russia?

NIMA ELBAGIR, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, this only will start to ramp up the concerns that have been expressed by U.S. officials all the way up to the secretary of state for Defense, Ash Carter, that with its involvement in the Syria conflict, that Russia was opening itself up to threats by extremist groups and to extremist groups to carry out and act upon those threats.

What most of those watching that video will have been looking for, though, will have been any specificity regarding the metrojet crash and that didn't seem to be there. We went through the video. A lot of it was very generic material. And it didn't mention any involvement or any evidence of ISIS' broader involvement in the metrojet crash.

But that really plays into what we've been hearing from intelligence officials, both here in Cairo and in the U.S., that this was very much a franchise job. That metrojet, if it is indeed proven to be an act of terror, was one that was carried out by the ISIS Sinai offshoot and not from ISIS leadership in Syria and Iraq -- Wolf. BLITZER: Nima, stand by. Jim, Russia was already planning a move

against ISIS before this new video was just released. What have you learned about Russia's plans? When is it likely to strike? What do we know?

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, U.S. officials, as well as lawmakers here on the Hill, who have been briefed on this believe that Russia is going to have to react if it is determined definitively that it is ISIS and that is the most likely scenario, from the U.S. point of view, that ISIS brought this Russian plane down.

The U.S. is in touch with its Russia counterparts. Russia is not telegraphing exactly what military moves it would take. But I would also echo Nima's point, because you'll hear that from administration officials here, that Russia, through its military activity in Syria, made itself more of a target to groups like this which, of course, to be fair, the U.S., through its military action, has as well.

But the view here is that Russian military response will be coming. And it will be a severe one, in part, because there will be pressure from the Russia public if it's determined and announced that this was an ISIS attack.

BLITZER: Jim, do U.S. officials now believe Russia will be a more helpful partner to the U.S. and the other coalition partners in this war against ISIS?

SCIUTTO: Well, the view from the administration is this, that is, in effect, Russia's decision to make now. Do they get more involved against ISIS? But, to this point, they don't see any fundamental change in Russia's priority in Syria which is defending the regime of Bashar Al Assad. We've seen that based on the majority, the vast majority, of the air strikes that they've carried out in Syria have been, really, on any challenge to Bashar Al Assad and defending his shrinking area of control in the western part of the country.

But they do see an opening through diplomatic channels, the talks that are going on in Vienna, where both sides could get to a place. They see a possibility, I should say, where both sides could get to a place where they agree that there's a political transition. And that if al Assad is not leaving tomorrow or next month or next year, that, at some point, he is out of the picture, when you have elections. While, also, and you'll hear this from administration officials, them conceding that you don't necessarily want them out today because you've seen, in other places, what the collapse of the existing regime has done to stability of Libya, et cetera.

BLITZER: Right. As bad as Gadhafi was, there are a lot of analysts who believe the situation there is a whole lot worse today.

All right, Jim Sciutto, Nima Elbagir, thanks very much.

Let's get to another major story we're following on a vicious military assault on ISIS. Operation Free Sinjar is aimed at taking back the strategic city. It's a massive offensive. Thousands of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, they are leading the charge right now. Plumes of smoke blacken the skies as the coalition bombs targets from the air. The strategy is to attack the city from three sides.

[13:05:07] Our Senior International Correspondent Nick Paton Walsh is on the ground for us in Iraq. He's very near to this whole Sinjar area closely following what's going on. Nick, describe what you have seen because I understand it is very dramatic.

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, from the early hours of this morning, Wolf, we saw an enormous column of Peshmerga that we actually followed around towards the west of the city. Now, that's key because it seems that that's actually where much of the advance today were made by them.

Their main objective, yes, symbolically, of course, the Peshmerga want to retake Sinjar, want to reverse the brutality inflicted on the Yazidi population that lived there last year when ISIS moved in. But, strategically, they want to take the main road that runs that runs through Sinjar and that is Route 47. It goes from Mosul in Iraq where ISIS have a key city to Raqqah in Syria, which is the capital of their self-declared caliphate.

It seems today, from what we saw, that they now have that road. In fact, we left it there with a series of JCB (ph) bulldozers digging huge trenches across that particular highway, putting in a number of rounds. The aim being to cut it off permanently to prevent ISIS from moving up and down.

And now, an extraordinarily perilous day though because they faced a lot of resistance from ISIS both in the town. They sent a number of car bombs towards the Peshmerga forces. Huge mushroom clouds across the sky. At one point, three at the same time.

But the Peshmerga did seem to have one trick on their side which was a new missile given, it seems to them by the west which enables them to shoot the car bombs before they get too close. And, in fact, we saw how one of those almost melted a car in its tracks.

And also, a lot of coalition air power to hammering ISIS to the far west of that Sinjar town. A lot of damage, it seems, done in that particular direction. But the Peshmerga able to advance, at some speed, to west today. And we also hear to the east as well, largely because of the coalition. Dozens of air strikes we saw overnight lighting up the sky. Dozens in the days beforehand.

The question is, now they seem to have pushed ISIS back to the small urban center of Sinjar to which they have to move in the days ahead, how long a fight will ISIS put up? Are we in for hours, days of brutal urban fighting or might they melt away? An important question because they need that road cleared to be able to ensure they've blocked ISIS from communicating between Mosul and Raqqah -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Any sign, Nick, that the Iraqi military itself -- we know these Kurdish fighters, they are leading the battle. But any sign they're getting any support on the ground from the Iraqi military? This is, after all, Iraq. WALSH: No Iraqi support here that we could see. In fact, this issue is really about what kind of Kurd is doing the fighting? The Peshmerga from the Kurdish regional government up in northern Iraq, very clear they're leading this operation. We saw the occasional sign of all the Kurdish groups, notably the YPG (ph), somewhere in the area. But not any evidence at all, frankly.

This was a Peshmerga operation. It was always thought to be one. The Americans who are clearly in the skies but also, according to them today when you talk to them on the ground, perhaps the other western militaries too, advising this operation. They seem to be comfortable with the Peshmerga because of their sort of sense of organization you get from them, and certainly their ability to deliver on fielding large numbers of troops.

Enormous columns we saw piling down these main roads. Not an unstoppable force but one that's pretty hard to argue with. Clearly, the Americans are comfortable with working alongside them and perhaps this, I think, is aimed to build some sense of momentum to perhaps ensure a quick victory in Sinjar because Raqqah and Mosul, the real targets that the coalition want to go after, are both east and west of there. And this may be the beginning, that they hope, of something larger. But, frankly, that will be months away -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Nick, I want to remind our viewers of some really horrific scenes we saw last year when ISIS attacked that whole Sinjar area. And we saw these children basically being thrown into helicopters, Yazidi children. The Yazidis are really assaulted by these forces. It's been a brutal situation. How important is this town, Sinjar, in and of itself?

WALSH: Sinjar, in itself, is that strategic region because it sits on that main route vital for the coalition. They talked today in the Pentagon about the need to cut it off to prevent the flow of fighters, material, but also the black market trade in oil that many say is key to ISIS' financing. But it's also deeply symbolic because of the attention and the brutality against the Yazidis got in the world.

Remember, many of them put in captivity. Women put in slavery, to some degree. Thousands, potentially, still held captive. Tens of thousands living in Mt. Sinjar in the freezing cold now, close as they can be to Sinjar, their hometown. They want to go home and I think there's a feeling, potentially, amongst the Peshmerga and the coalition backing them up. But a swift and decisive victory here could perhaps turn the narrative curve of ISIS beginning to lose territory now and maybe with the loss of that vital supply route.

[13:10:07] And make no mistake, if they don't have that road, it is a severe problem for them. And as of the time we left there today, they didn't have full control of it. Maybe that might actually have a bigger symbolic impact against ISIS itself -- Wolf.

BLITZER: I know you're crazed over there. You're very busy. It's a very dangerous situation. One final question. Any indication that these heroic Kurdish fighters -- the Peshmerga, who are closely supportive of the United States, very close to the United States, any indication they would actually take this battle, assuming they win where they are in Iraq right now, around this area of Sinjar, and actually move into Syria, itself, move towards Raqqah, the so-called ISIS capital of that caliphate?

WALSH: There is no indication they want part of that fight. And I think it would be probably confusing given their at times complex fighting relationship with the other groups, particularly the YPG, the Syrian Kurds who fought for Kobani. They were in evidence in the northeast of Syria. They're the ones really with their process focused on Raqqah for that potential fight ahead. You'd probably see the Peshmerga acting to block any attempt for ISIS to move back into Iraq where they're successful in holding this part of the highway.

But we have to bear in mind, we saw limited retaliation and defense from ISIS. It may be because they're waiting for a better time. It may be because they're weak. It may be because they don't want to actually fight for this particular town. But they could still have a say in whether or not the Peshmerga get to hold that vital Route 47 -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Nick Paton Walsh doing an amazing job for us as he always does. Nick, thanks very much. Please, please be careful over there as this war is continuing.

Elise Labott, our Global Affairs Correspondent, is here with me now. Elise, you just had an exclusive interview with the now former chief U.S. military adviser to the president, retired General John Allen, who's been helping, in terms of this war against ISIS. An exit interview, as we like to call it. What does he say about this war going on, the latest development at Sinjar?

ELISE LABOTT, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's really interesting, Wolf. When we sat down about a year ago, we were talking about the rescue of these Yazidis from Sinjar Mountain. And we talked about how the battle is going back to where it began. But this time, it's the Kurds that are becoming among the most reliable partners in this fight against ISIS. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(on camera): Today, Kurdish forces are retaking Sinjar with --

GEN. JOHN ALLEN, U.S. ENVOY TO ANTI-ISIS COALITION: Right.

LABOTT: -- U.S. air strike assistance. Tell us about that.

ALLEN: Well, this, again, is another one of those moments a year later that's really important to take stock of what's happened. You'll recall, about this time last year, we were all facing the horror of what was happening in the vicinity of Sinjar and to the Yazidi people.

A year later, Kurdish forces, some number of thousands of them, have launched into the attack to push Daish out of that area, to cut Route 47 which is the principal east-west running line of communication between Mosul and Raqqah. And that's a very important development. And it continues to indicate how, with the coalition air power, American advice, coalition advice, partners like the Peshmerga and other elements within those four nations (ph) are able to make real ground.

LABOTT: But it seems as if the Peshmerga, right now, are your most reliable partners right now. Why are we not arming them directly?

ALLEN: Well, they're -- they are being armed.

LABOTT: Not directly by the U.S.

ALLEN: Well, they're being -- they're -- they have been armed. Fourteen nations have been providing support to them. And one of the reasons we came to Iraq, one of the reasons we committed ourselves, was to restore the territorial integrity of Iraq and the sovereignty of the Iraqi government over all of Iraq.

And so, while we may not be directly providing them assistance, the idea that the assistance flows through Baghdad where it goes through a very quick customs check and moves very quickly to the KRG (ph) is something that has both provided for the support to the Kurds but also has reinforced the sovereignty of the Iraqi government. That's inherently the reason that we're operating this way.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Elise, what it did he tell you about a no-fly zone? Because there have been conflicting views. So far, the president, President Obama, has opposed a U.S.-led no-fly zone even over parts of Syria. The Democratic presidential frontrunner, his former secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, supports a no-fly zone. How does General Allen feel about that?

LABOTT (live): Well, and all -- and all -- really, a lot of the Republicans candidates as well. So, we did talk about that. And it's clear that they have been looking into it, the administration. But it doesn't seem that it's in the cards right now. Take a listen to General Allen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALLEN: We should consider all the measures that are at our --

LABOTT: Including (INAUDIBLE)?

ALLEN: Well, we should consider them. Now, whether we would ultimately adopt them or not -- and it's not just a no-fly zone, you know, place or a no-fly zone in -- whether it's on the air or on the ground, it's also a matter of timing as well.

[13:15:03] And -- but I have to tell you, because we have looked at this, that the intricacies and the complexities and the cost, frankly, in terms of resources, additional resources of a no-fly zone or a safe zone, are not insignificant.

And the question then becomes, what do we want to accomplish with them? And if the conditionings are not suitable right now for what we might want to accomplish, then now is not the time to seriously consider it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LABOTT: We also talked about the train and equip program, Wolf, this now defunct program that has been canceled. I asked him why it failed. And he said one of the main reasons is because the U.S. was looking to the Syrian opposition to fight ISIS but didn't want them to go after Assad. And that presented a lot of challenges. We also talked about how ISIS has really morphed into a global terror group with obviously concerns about what happened in the Sinai. Now we'll be talking about that much more today on "The Situation Room."

BLITZER: It's no longer the JV team, as they say.

LABOTT: No.

BLITZER: We're going to have a lot more of this interview coming up later in "The Situation Room." Elise, thanks very much.

Up next, more on the battle for Sinjar. Even if Kurdish troops win this battle, ISIS fighters will keep fighting for this strategically important town. We'll take a closer look at the challenges. Our panel of experts standing by live.

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[13:20:24] BLITZER: Let's get back to our top story right now, the operation underway right now to try to free the critically important town of Sinjar in Iraq. Right now, thousands of Kurdish forces, they're trying to retake that strategic city from ISIS. The major objective is to try to completely cut off the strategic highway there. It's called highway 47. It's a vital artery which passes through Sinjar, links the militants two biggest strongholds in Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in northern Iraq. Both controlled by ISIS.

Let's bring in our global affairs analyst Kim Dozier, and our CNN military analyst, Retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling.

Kim, how quickly do you -- based on what you're hearing, can this military offensive, led by the Kurds, backed up by U.S. air strikes, how quickly can it be wrapped up?

KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: It will probably take a few weeks unless ISIS decides just to disappear, melt away, as it's done before. But it's the actual recapturing of the town, figuring out what parts of the town are safe for civilians to return to. That's the part that's going to be a painstaking and several weeks long process. You look at other towns that Iraqi forces have retaken from ISIS, like Tikrit. That took several weeks to clear it out. Then it took six months to a year before they got all the services turned back on. So while this might be a military victory and you might see some civilians return, I really think that this is going to stay a contested military base of sorts and a point on the map where they can build from to go to Mosul and push towards the Syrian border. BLITZER: This is a critically important supply route, general, as you

well know. Mosul is the second largest city in Iraq, a city of nearly 2 million people. Almost two years now it's been under control of ISIS. The Iraqi military abandoned that city. It was an awful situation. Raqqa in Syria is the so-called capital of the Islamic State caliphate, if you will. If they take over this strategic area, potentially that could disrupt traffic between Raqqa and Mosul and that would be very significant, right?

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Not potentially, Wolf, that is exactly the aim of this operation. There has been some contention about the retaking of Sinjar. It is a Kurdish town. It is in the Kurdish regional government area. And there have been some back and forth between which Kurdish Peshmerga force should take the town over the last six months or so. So this operation going after it from three -- three sides critically important but the cutting of Highway 47, and I've been on that road all the way from Mosul to the Syrian border several times in my last tour there, is critically important to stop the supplies from Raqqa to Mosul. The point of this -- of this operation is to choke off Mosul in several areas and all the points between Raqqa and Mosul. If they can do that, it definitely advances the operational aim.

BLITZER: Kim, we heard Nick Paton Walsh, who's there on the scene, he's been with those Peshmerga Kurdish fighters watching what's going on. He makes a couple of interesting points. The Peshmerga have no interest in actually leaving Iraq and going, taking this fight towards Raqqa in Syria, but he also says he sees no evidence that the Iraqi military is at all involved in helping the Peshmerga, even though these Kurds, they're fighting inside Iraq. Why is the Iraqi military still missing in action?

DOZIER: Well, the Iraqi military is really tied up around the Ramadi area, the Baiji (ph) area. They are splitting the territory within Iraq as per their greatest concentration of forces. They're trying to build greater cooperation and coordination. The Iraqi ambassador here says that they're going to set up a point man, a military chief who would be talking to the coalition and representing the Iraqi army, the Kurds, and the Sunni fighting forces. But we haven't seen that yet. So it's a forcing function. This fight for territory that's going to make them cooperate, but so far they haven't demonstrated real coordinated cooperation in an effective way on the battlefield.

BLITZER: And that's so frustrating, general, as you know, to U.S. officials because when the U.S. left Iraq, they supposedly left an Iraqi military, security forces of about 300,000 troops. So many of them have simply abandoned their positions. And right now there's making no -- there's no signs I see -- maybe you can update us if you have better information -- that they're gearing up to retake the second largest city in their country, Mosul.

[13:24:59] HERTLING: No, I think they are, actually, Wolf. And you have to look at it from two directions. If you draw a straight line between Raqqa and Mosul, that's one line of operations and it goes through many of the Kurdish regions. The reason you don't see the Iraqi army in Sinjar is because that's part of the Iraqi -- I'm sorry, part of the Kurdish regional government.

Let's draw another line from Baghdad to Mosul, from south to north. There are a lot of Iraqi security forces fighting in Ramadi, in Baiji. Mr. al Abadi was just in Baiji a few months -- a few weeks ago and they are having extreme difficulty in those towns. They also have to capture the town of Hawija (ph) and Sharkat (ph) in that south to north area. So they are choking ISIS from several different directions to attempt to get back to Mosul.

But this is, as we've said many times, this is going to be a long slog. And what Kimberly said earlier about the fight for Sinjar, I think it's actually going to take longer. They may -- it's going to be like Kobani was, a lot of bombardment. ISIS will not give this town up easily. And even if they are destroyed, when the Kurdish forces get into the town, they're going to find a lot of booby trapped buildings, a lot of house-born IEDs. They're going to continue to attack with vehicle-born IEDs. This is going to be a tough fight. They cannot lose this route to Mosul.

BLITZER: General Hertling, thanks very much. Kim Dozier, thanks to you as well. We'll continue to watch the breaking news. Much more on that coming up.

We're following the breaking news also out of Beirut, Lebanon, right now, where dozens of people have just been killed, nearly 200 people have been injured in a suicide bomb attack. We're getting new information. We'll have the details when we come back.

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