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AT THIS HOUR WITH BERMAN AND MICHAELA

New Video Shows el Chapo Escape; How to Re-Capture Guzman; Obama, Madeleine Albright Defend Iran Nuclear Deal; Trump Number One in Polls. Aired 11-11:30a ET

Aired July 15, 2015 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[11:00:00] JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: The Trump tornado. One poll now has him out in front. Another says his popularity has doubled. And today, a big summit with a key Republican candidate. So has he made the jump from reality host to real candidate?

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: And new video showing the interrogation of an American accused of plotting an ISIS-inspired attack on college campuses. Hear what he says and why his attorney says it doesn't mean he's guilty.

BERMAN: Good morning. I'm John Berman.

BOLDUAN: And I'm Kate Bolduan.

New this morning, the video, the moment showing one of the world's most notorious and dangerous drug criminals breaking out of maximum security prison. The drug kingpin known as el Chapo managed to slip into a hole under his prison shower and into a mile-long tunnel to freedom. Now we see the moment he disappeared.

BERMAN: In this just-released surveillance video, el Chapo ducks into the shower fully clothed, he leans down like he's checking something out. Seconds later, he sits down on the bed, changes his shoes then goes back into the shower. He bends down again and then, poof, he's gone and he's not seen or heard from since. Gone.

Polo Sandoval joins us from outside this prison.

Polo, that's amazing video to see.

POLO SANDOVAL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's truly amazing footage being released by the Mexican government. The release of these images coming -- seems to be the shake-up of prison officials and other government officials continues. We were able to learn from law enforcement sources here on the ground that the head of intelligence for the federal police in Mexico is being stripped of his job. He's the latest high-profile official to be removed from office in light of that truly incredible escape that we continue to follow here from over the week. In fact, the images you just mentioned, released by the Mexican government, very key piece of the puzzle here, too, as it is technically the very last image that was taken of Joaquin Guzman before he busted out of prison and then most importantly it shows the very moment where he just ducks out of the camera's view and into this custom-built tunnel that extended from the prison itself to that building that was under construction only about a mile away. So as search efforts continue, we confirm the head of Mexico's federal police was let go. They're searching the remote areas here, where these villages are located an hour west of Mexico City.

BOLDUAN: Polo on the ground there for us.

Polo, thank you very much.

The big question facing everyone is how do you catch him at this point?

Michael Vigil has a lot of experience tracking down drug lords. He is joining us now. He's a former DEA chief of international operations.

Mr. Vigil, thanks very much for joining us.

When we look at that surveillance video -- hopefully we can show it once again -- that the Mexican prison authorities released, it shows el Chapo walking around. He doesn't look too nervous or flustered -- it almost looks like he knew he was about to get out. What do you make of this surveillance video?

MICHAEL VIGIL, FORMER DEA CHIEF OF INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS: Well, obviously he knew the hole had already been punched into his cell. He walked calmly in there. He knew that he was going to have at least one or two hours' head start. But more appalling is where were the guards that were supposed to be monitoring that closed circuit TV? They should have picked up on that when he went into the shower area fully clothed, comes back, puts on his shoes and then walks back again. They should have been able to reach his cell within minutes and hopefully thwart the escape had they been doing their job.

BERMAN: Where were the guys monitoring the closed circuit TV? Where was the sense of concern that this man with a history of expertise in tunneling -- where was the concern that he might do it again? I think we have new footage, too, of inside these tunnels. There's a motorcycle with motorcycle tracks inside this tunnel which shows clearly a high level of sophistication here. Clearly whoever did this must have had some kind of blueprints or schematic of the prison. So --

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: Go ahead.

VIGIL: They either had the blueprints but quite frankly, my personal opinion is that they had very sophisticated GPS systems. There had to be a lot of coordination between Chapo Guzman, members of the prison guard population and the people that were building the tunnel. This was not strictly from the outside in. The communication had to be intensive during the days of the building of the tunnel. But you're absolutely right. Chapo Guzman has built hundreds of tunnels along the U.S./Mexico border to funnel tons of drugs into the United States. And now he just took that technology and applied it in making his escape from one of the most secure penitentiaries in Mexico. [11:05:27] BOLDUAN: Michael, one of the things in the aftermath that

I've found surprising, seen reporting that the United States, hours after it was announced that he had escaped, they offered up as much assistance as possible, as much assistance as Mexico need. And those offerings have gone without a response from Mexican authorities. Why wouldn't they want the help to track this guy down?

VIGIL: The fact of the matter is I think they feel very frustrated. I know that the Mexican president has given a directive to the federal police and the military forces that he wants Chapo Guzman captured very quickly. So I don't know why he would not -- or they would not want U.S. support because, quite frankly, that's what led to his capture in 2014, had it not been for the United States, they would have never gotten their hands on him.

BERMAN: If he had help from the inside of the prison, does that mean that he has some kind of official level of help perhaps on the outside and would that make him even harder to catch at this point?

VIGIL: Well, he's going to have help on the outside. Keep in mind that Chapo Guzman has been operating in Mexico for at least 20 years. And a cartel the size of his cartel cannot operate without government assistance. In other words, official corruption. There's no way that they can operate. But what I find appalling is that when they found out that he had escaped from his cell, it took three hours at least to generate a response. And by that time, he was on his way probably to his native state.

BERMAN: This guy should never been alone for three hours. Never be alone for 10 minutes based on how dangerous he is.

Michael Vigil, thanks so much for being with us. Appreciate it.

VIGIL: Thank you.

BERMAN: Seven minutes after the hour right now. The Trump thing is now real or at least way more real. One poll has him out in front. Another poll has his popularity doubling. What will the other candidates now do to try to make this go away?

BOLDUAN: Plus, a deal with the devil. A historic mistake, as critics tear into the nuclear deal with Iran. Right now, President Obama is preparing to face questions from reporters to make his case to the American public and to Congress, can he sell it?

And new this morning, search crews spotting what could be the wreckage of the plane crash that a young girl survived. This, as she reveals what kept her alive for two days in the wilderness.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:11:29] BOLDUAN: In just a few moments, President Obama will try to be making his case for the deal struck with Iran over its nuclear program, a deal Republicans and even some Democrats think is a bad one. And they're gearing up to try to stop it. But here, first, is the president taking on those critics. He talked

about this in an interview with Thomas Friedman of "The New York Times."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think that criticism is misguided. Let's see exactly what we obtained. We have cut off every pathway for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. The reason we were able to unify the world community around the most effective sanctions regime we've ever set up, a sanction regime that crippled the Iranian economy and ultimately brought them to the table, was because the world agreed with us that it would be a great danger to the region, to our allies, to the world if Iran possessed a nuclear weapon.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: It's a big deal. It's a complicated deal.

Earlier this morning on CNN, former secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, said people need to look closely at the deal and study it before slamming it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE: I think it's a good and important deal. It is a very complicated one that everybody's going to have to study. I really welcome the discussion about it because to your question I think it is historic. And it changes the relationship between the United States and Iran that has been very bad since the hostage crisis in 1979. For people to just flat-out say this doesn't work or that they're going to derail it in our Congress, I hope people don't mean it because what they need to do is to study what is a really important agreement.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: Joining us now one of the crucial players in this process going forward, Republican Congressman Ed Royce, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Mr. Chairman, thank you so much for being with us.

REP. ED ROYCE (R-CA), CHAIRMAN, HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE: Thank you.

BERMAN: Madeleine Albright says people need to study this before forming an opinion. Do you feel like you have all your questions answered at this point to formulate on opinion?

ROYCE: We still have 180 pages of a document that's coming over from the administration that we need to read. We have heard the concerns from the Department of Defense. The Pentagon last week testified and had a little different take on this. There was an addition to this agreement at the last minute. Iran made the demand, backed by Russia, that the arms embargo on Iran -- and this concerns ICBMs, intercontinental ballistic missiles. You heard Ash Carter, the secretary of defense, say that this "I" stands for "intercontinental." These could be launched from Iran into the United States. And under no conditions should it be added to the agreement, it was said. But it was added. These are things we'll hear from experts at the Pentagon and certainly go through the details of the documents to see what we have.

BOLDUAN: One of the chief criticisms I've also heard -- and you also made the case yesterday in the hearing that you held -- was on the issue of inspections. The fact that the line has been used, anytime anywhere inspections and the fact that folks say that doesn't really exist because there's a 24-day lag time, if you will.

Listen here to the energy secretary who was involved in these negotiations on that criticism. He says, anyone who says that doesn't understand the science.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[11:15:00] ERNEST MONIZ, ENERGY SECRETARY: I think that's stated by those who don't have complete insight into our capabilities for understanding what's gone on, in particular activity using nuclear material, we feel very confident we would find if -- or the IAEA would find, if you like, if in fact that was being used at any undeclared location anywhere.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Mr. Chairman, he's not only energy secretary, he's also a nuclear physicist. When he says that, does that make you feel any better about this inspection period?

ROYCE: It makes me as I felt in 1994 during the framework agreement on North Korea. When I heard the same argument, don't worry, we will be able to tell, even if we can't get access to the sights, we will know if North Korea is cheating on this agreement. Let me explain that it turned out we weren't able to properly monitor what they were doing in North Korea. And as a consequence, North Korea ended up with the ability, three nuclear tests, the development of a number of nuclear bombs. And this is not what we want Iran to have the capability to do and play hide-and-seek like North Korea did. And I would also counter that we've had a number of inspectors testify before our committee that say, no, no, no, we do need the ability to get in there into the military sites. And if it takes 24 days instead of 24 hours and if on top of that at that point you're still to the point of adjudicating it, which could take several months, they will be able to game it. So that's one of the other issues we're looking at. And really hope that we can get some better definition on how we're going to be able to get the inspectors in there.

BERMAN: Mr. Chairman, two-part question. The first part is quick. Do you think before yesterday Iran wanted to have a nuclear weapon in the next one year, two years, 10 years?

ROYCE: I think Iran is on a dual track. You've heard the ayatollah say they have to figure out how to mass produce intercontinental ballistic missiles. Russia will be able to transfer in eight years' table, the capacity, what they're interested in selling to Iran, for targeting of ICBMs and, at the same time, they want to build up a nuclear capability. Under the agreement, in as little as 10 years, when it's over -- this is providing they don't cheat in the meantime -- they will have that capability of industrial nuclear weapons capability. That's part of the problem.

BERMAN: It may not be the only reason in your consideration of whether to vote for it or not. But if you think they want a nuclear weapon now or within the next 10 years, do you think this deal makes getting it within those 10 years harder?

ROYCE: Remember, one of the problems is that we had legislation that I and Eliot Engel, my ranking member, passed through the committee, bipartisan legislation that passed the House 400-20, which would have used the devices that the Treasury Department has helped us develop that would have given the ayatollah an actual choice between economic collapse or real compromise on his nuclear program. That was the approach we in Congress were pushing. The sanctions were always opposed by this administration, including the sanctions a couple of years ago that are in place now. But we had additional sanctions for additional leverage. The administration blocked that. We felt the sanctions were helping get them to the table and that we needed a credible, a credible leverage on their economy. And this would have done that. And then I think we could have gotten a better deal.

BOLDUAN: The energy secretary even talked about those sanctions, saying that they might have brought them to the table but those sanctions weren't slowing them down moving to proceed with their nuclear program. This is part of the focus. This is definitely what will be the focus of many of your hearings.

Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.

ROYCE: Thank you.

BOLDUAN: Thank you.

Coming up for us, Donald Trump says America is going to hell. And right now, the billionaire is leading Republicans in a new poll of presidential candidates. What's behind the rise? We'll discuss.

BERMAN: Plus, an actor from "The Cosby Show" breaks his silence on the rape allegations against Bill Cosby. Why this actor now thinks Cosby is guilty. You're about to hear from him and his emotional story.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:23:00] BERMAN: New this morning, Trump on top. A new national poll from Suffolk University and "USA Today" has Donald Trump leading the Republican pack right now. Rather be Donald Trump in this poll than Jeb Bush. A new ABC poll shows the number of Americans with a positive opinion of Trump has doubled, has doubled since he made those very controversial comments about Mexican immigrants. BOLDUAN: But Trump is also leading in the unpopularity department.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans have an unfavorable view of him. That is an improvement, though, from before that unfavorable number. And look at the number when you look at the Hispanic vote. They don't like him very much at all. A whopping 81 percent see him as unfavorable.

Donald Trump talked to Dana Bash about the topic, the idea, the concept of softening his rhetoric. Listen to what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE & CEO, TRUMP GROUP: We're too worried about tone in this country. That's why we're getting beat by everybody. It's about results. You have to get results. They're worried about the tone, it's their voice raised a little bit.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Donald Trump is also meeting today with one of his GOP rivals, Senator Ted Cruz. Wonder what's going to happen in that meeting.

Let's discuss with our political director, David Chalian; and politics reporter, M.J. Lee.

David, David, David, you look at this polls, Trump is leading. What is he tapping into? Clearly the idea of "tone it down" is not something that voters want, it seems.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: I think he's tapping into several things. Tomorrow marks a month since Donald Trump got in this race, Kate. And I think a lot of observers think he would have faded by now. I think he's here to stay for a little bit. He's still on this upward trajectory and he's tapping into a notion among Republicans specifically in the polls but among voters overall who are tired of their typical politician, who are so packaged by their consultants and afraid to say the wrong thing. He speaks his mind. That's an attractive quality. And you have to look at the news environment since he's announced. It's played into his wheelhouse. The Obama trade deal, something Donald Trump knows a lot about from his business background. And his crusades against immigration, you have the el Chapo story, the Kate Steinle situation in San Francisco. These are the issues that Donald Trump was able to play up in his first month on the trail.

[11:25:30] BERMAN: David, it's interesting, you talk about this swing. Among Republicans, there's been a wild swing in his favor on the issue of favorability now. 57 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable. That's way ahead of what it was in May. More than double.

And you mention that some Republican voters like the idea of an outsider rocking the establishment. I was in Iowa talking to voters last week who say they are considering Donald Trump. And what they like about him is not the typical politician thing. Listen to what one voter told me.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: Would anyone at this table vote for Donald Trump?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

BERMAN: Why?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's a very shrewd businessman. I think he would be able to at least guide Congress in a little bit better way to maybe perhaps pay down the $18 trillion debt that we're incurring.

BERMAN: You've met him.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, I have. I've met several of the candidates. And I'm holding all judgment on all of them because it's way too early.

BERMAN: You're listening to what he says?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Of course. I listen to all of them. I think I would be very closed-minded not to listen to every single one on both sides.

BERMAN: You don't want to listen anymore. You're shaking your head.

(LAUGHTER)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People need to be responsible for their comments and their actions. And we cannot say, you can say whatever you want in a free country and say nothing is going to happen to you.

BERMAN: There's repercussions.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's repercussions. I think the problem with Trump, he has credibility in the world that he's putting himself the way he did.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: You heard the Republicans there saying they're listening to Donald Trump right now and like the idea that he's an outsider. Any sense that this campaign -- he's number one in the polls -- that he's building a campaign structure, doing the things you need to sustain over the months ahead.

M.J. LEE, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: What's clear is that Donald Trump is an atypical politician. I don't know that he has a script when he takes a podium. He says whatever he wants. When they read the poll numbers, I think they are aware when six in 10 Republican voters say they either don't like him or they never would vote for him, that is a problem and that is an obstacle that is really difficult for someone like Trump to get over. It means that he has a definite cap. There's a pool of voters that he can try to win over. And then there's the majority of the Republican voting base that says, we've already decided we do not want to vote for him. Getting past that is going to be a really big challenge for him.

BOLDUAN: One thing we see -- David, pipe in on this -- Donald Trump doesn't care about an unfavorable rating. He doesn't seem concerned when you see the whopping 81 percent of Hispanic voters in that poll have an unfavorable view about him. He doesn't care.

CHALIAN: Well, right. Eventually, I think he would care about that. I think that we have to look at this in two phases. Donald Trump is running in a field of 16 candidates for the Republican Party nomination. So while I totally agree with M.J., he does have a cap. That cap is enough to have him in the lead right now and potentially if the field remains this large in the lead for some time to come. The point you're making, Kate, about the unfavorables with Hispanics, you're right, he's under 63 points, if my math is correct, maybe 68- point negative rating when you combine the favorable and unfavorable. That's compared to Jeb Bush's positive net 15 percent favorable among Hispanics and we all know after the 2012 campaign that the Republican committee looked at itself and said, what do we need to do differently? And one of the things Reince Priebus said is, we must do better with Hispanic voters. When you talk about Donald Trump in the context of a general election, he becomes a much more problematic candidate for the party.

BOLDUAN: Especially when you see the hypothetical match-ups with Hillary Clinton right now, he fares the worst.

David Chalian, M.J. Lee, great to see you guys. Thank you.

CHALIAN: Thank you.

BOLDUAN: Coming up for us next, alone and lost, covered in blood and bruises, the sole survivor of a plane crash telling her story, as crews possibly spot the wreckage of her plane. That's ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)