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Hezbollah Attack Kills Two Israeli Soldiers; Jordan Could Swap Terrorist For ISIS Hostage; Posts Claimed Bombs on Several Flights; Deadline Passes for ISIS Hostages; ISIS Hostage Deadline Passes

Aired January 28, 2015 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, I'm Wolf Blitzer. It's 1:00 p.m. here in Washington, 6:00 p.m. in London, 8:00 p.m. in Amman, Jordan and 8:00 p.m. in Jerusalem. Wherever you're watching from around the world, thanks very much for joining us.

Up first, a deadly attack ratcheting up tensions in the Middle East, even more so. Israel says the militant group, Hezbollah, fired on an Israeli military vehicle in the Golan Heights. Two Israeli soldiers were killed. A Spanish peacekeeper was also killed in the fighting. This was Hezbollah's deadliest military attack on Israeli forces since the 2006 war between the two sides. The conflict has much wider implications since Hezbollah is backed by both Iran and the Syrian regime of President Bashar Al Assad.

Our Global Affairs Correspondent Elise Labott is up there. She's near the Israeli border with Lebanon and the Golan Heights up there. Elise, we just got word, moments ago, that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, assembled his security cabinet for an assessment meeting. What does all this mean? What are you hearing, now, about a potential escalation along the border between Israel, Lebanon and Syria?

ELISE LABOTT, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, the Israelis answered that artillery fire and those missile attacks into Israel today with air strikes against Hezbollah targets across the Lebanese border and also with ground artillery into the Lebanese border. Prime Minister Netanyahu saying Israel will not stand for another front, an open front, with Hezbollah, warning Hezbollah, in effect, about what happened to Hamas in Gaza during Operation Protective Edge saying they could have the same fate.

Israeli military sources' analysts are saying that they seem to be kind of satisfied with the Israeli response which was immediate and punishing, they feel. And they are hoping it could escalate -- de- escalate, Wolf. But as you know from covering the Middle East for so long, one wrong move on either side of the border and it could quickly spiral out of control -- Wolf.

BLITZER: It certainly could. That's the great fear right now. And walk us through, Elise, because the tensions along the northern -- Israel's northern border with Syria and Lebanon, they have been escalating dramatically over the past week, right?

LABOTT: Well, that's right. Well, you have that attack last week into Syria against high-level Hezbollah and Iranian targets. Now, Israel never copped to that attack. But certainly the IDF forces were on alert right after because they targeted and killed those high-level Iranian and Hezbollah operatives. Israel deployed the iron dome anti- missile system across the border, on its side of the border. We visited that today.

And everyone is on high alert, Wolf. Yesterday, there were some rocket fire on the Golan Heights from Syria into Israel. Overnight, Israel targeted Syrian positions saying the Syrian regime is responsible for what happens on its side of the border. And then, today, you had that attack on that Israeli military convoy.

So, things have been escalating over the last several days. Hezbollah certainly saying this is punishment for that Israeli attack against Hezbollah and the Iranians. However, it's been quiet for the last few hours. We'll see what happens overnight whether it de-escalates. I don't think anybody really wants a new front, Wolf, an open war between Israel and Hezbollah. But, you know, things could quickly spiral out of control.

BLITZER: It certainly could. Elise, stand by. I want to get back to you. But I want to get more insight, now, on the latest fighting and what it means for the broader Middle East. Joining us is Aaron Miller. He's a distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, a former advisor to six U.S. secretaries of state on the Arab Israeli conflict. What's going on over there?

AARON DAVID MILLER, PUBLIC POLICY SCHOLAR, WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER: You know, the Middle East is full of surprises but this one was predictable. There's no question that Hezbollah responded directly to the January 18th Israeli targeted hit on that convoy.

BLITZER: There was a convoy of Hezbollah vehicles going from Syria into Sour (ph), Lebanon, and it got, sort of, four miles away from Israeli forces were.

MILLER: Exactly. And Israeli intel clearly -- well, whether they knew they were Iranian rev guard -- revolutionary guard commanders in that convoy is unclear. But what they intuited, I suspect, is that Hezbollah and Iran wanted to expand and open a new front on the Golan. And that's one of the implications here.

I think the -- what the Israelis fear is that Iran and, again, Hezbollah is looking for a way to establish a new baseline so that Israeli civilians, military forces can be shelled from the Golan which, as you know, at least on the Syrian side of the border, is very much an open space, free fire zone. So, the Hezbollah response was expected. They could have responded abroad in a terrorist attack. They could've opened up a huge high trajectory of weapons, across border assault. But they didn't. They took advantage of this attack to, basically, establish some measure of deterrence. And this was clearly payback. That attack, by the way, this morning's attack, I'm told, was quite sophisticated. New generation --

BLITZER: The attack on the Israeli vehicle? MILLER: Exactly. New generation of anti-tank missiles, simultaneous

IEDs and mortar fire. And, apparently, that Israeli military vehicle was also under armored (ph). So, you'd have to raise a question about why the Israelis anticipated this was going to happen. Why they weren't better prepared.

BLITZER: Because the fear is this could get out of control. And we all remember 2006 where there was a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israeli-Lebanese border. I remember covering that war. It was awful, the hundreds of thousands of Israelis had to abandon their homes in the north Haifa. A big city was virtually empty. But I drove around Haifa, the dock, the major port there. No ships were there. The Israelis lost billions of dollars in revenue. They certainly don't want that to happen now but it could escalate to that point given the volume of rockets and missiles Hezbollah has received over these past several years.

MILLER: It could. But the three primary parties here, Israel, Iran and Hezbollah, I suspect, don't want a repeat of that. I mean, from the Israeli side, you're facing elections on March 17. I mean, you remember this, Wolf. In 2006, for 33 days, half of the Middle East's most preeminent military power from Haifa to the Lebanese border was essentially closed space. And Hezbollah has rearmed and their high- trajectory weapons are more sophisticated, greater precision, more lethality. I'm not sure the Israelis want to open this up. And Iran already stretched in Syria, supporting Assad, and Hezbollah supporting Assad as well, on the ground with fighters, I suspect, don't want a second (INAUDIBLE.)

BLITZER: Yes, I agree. I'm sure the Israelis don't want this to escalate. I suspect the Iranians don't. But you know what? There could be a miscalculation. As we all know, those --

MILLER: Logic and rationality don't always apply.

BLITZER: Yes. In the Middle East, the pessimism, as they say, pays on these kinds of matters. Stand by for a moment.

Elise, let's talk about that iron dome. You went up to the Golan Heights. The Israelis moved that U.S.-made -- that iron dome system that works relatively very effectively in dealing with incoming rockets and missiles. You were up there. Tell us what it was like. Did you actually get to see that iron dome on the Golan Heights?

LABOTT: We did, Wolf. We saw the batteries. They're not very large. We got a few hundred yards from it. The IDF was pushing us back every time we tried to get closer. Now, it's a very sophisticated radar system. As you know, they can shoot down, lock onto one of those rockets and shoot it down within 15 seconds. And that, you know, is very helpful during operation protective edge. Israelis could live a relatively normal life during a very volatile time.

The problem is it's untested against the kind of rocket fire that Hezbollah is capable of firing, large salvos of missiles. We're talking about how Hezbollah could have about 100,000 missiles. If they start throwing hundreds of rockets at one time, this system is, certainly, untested about that. And it's unclear whether it has the capability to be as successful. It probably does not.

That being said, I think that, as we've been saying, everybody wants to tone this down. It's really unclear, right now, whether you had your tit for tat. Hezbollah answered that Israeli air strike into Syria against Hezbollah and Iranian targets. Hezbollah responded. The Israelis came back and answered it. The Israelis are saying to Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, we will not tolerate another front. We will not let you change the rules of the game.

So, I think, now, everyone's looking to see whether either side is looking to de-escalate (ph). And I think, as you've been saying, that the answer is no here.

BLITZER: Yes, I suspect you're right and Aaron's right as well. Quickly, Aaron, where does the Syrian regime of President Bashar Al Assad fit into all of this? They're getting support, obviously, from Iran, from Hezbollah. What do they want?

MILLER: I mean, I think Assad has reached the conclusion that there's going to be no western intervention. The Israelis have intervened, as you know, half a dozen time through air strikes destroying probably missiles from Iran to Hezbollah (INAUDIBLE.) The Israelis don't want a mess in this war. Assad, frankly, has created a manageable status quo for himself which is one of the reasons, I suspect, neither Iran nor Hezbollah wants to open up this second front.

Remember, the Iranians spent a lot of money helping Hezbollah repair Lebanon in the wake of the 2006 war. Price of oil going down, stretched in Syria, Iran is simply not flush and I don't think wants it this time around.

BLITZER: All right. Aaron Miller, thanks very much. Elise, we're going to get back to you later as well. Elise Labott on the border between Israel and Lebanon.

Coming up, a potential deal in the works to swap a Jordanian prisoner, a Jordanian air force pilot for two ISIS hostages. We have details, new information coming in.

And a string of bomb threats targeting several flights here in the United States. Why investigators may have a hard time tracking down the culprit.

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BLITZER: There's another developing story we're watching right now. The latest on the hostage demands by ISIS for a Japanese journalist and a Jordanian fighter pilot. The ISIS dictated deadline is now passed for a prisoner exchange. Jordan agreed to release an Iraqi female terrorist in exchange for the pair.

Joining us, now, with the latest is this story, Will Ripley. He's covering all of this from Tokyo. And our Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr. She's over at the Pentagon. So, Will, what is the very latest you're hearing on this very potentially deadly wait-and- see game? WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the last update, publicly, that

we got from the Japanese government was around midnight local time. So, three hours ago. That was one hour after the apparent ISIS execution deadline. And the update was that there was no developments to report. We can guarantee you, Wolf, that if there had been a safe exchange or if there is a safe exchange, we will hear about it once it is believed that all parties involved are safe.

So, the fact that we're now into the overnight, early morning hours here, and there is no news, unfortunately, the fears are -- hope is fading here that -- and the fears are increasing that this is not going to end well for a Japanese hostage, Kenji Goto. The reason being is simple. The ISIS propaganda video, in which Goto is holding the photo of the Jordanian pilot, Moaz Kassasbeh, he is only offering, you know, through ISIS, his life in exchange for Sajida al-Rishawi, the terrorist that ISIS is trying to get back in the fold (ph). She has ties to the founders of ISIS. She's a big name in ISIS.

But ISIS was never offering up the release of this Jordanian pilot. They were saying it was the journalist for the prisoner. And the fact that the king of Jordan, apparently, is not willing to deliver on that kind of a deal, because he would receive so much intense criticism from his own people for turning over a high-level captive in exchange for a foreign citizen. There would be an uproar in Jordan. And so, that appears to be the real -- the real sticking point, that Japanese officials had very little that they can do. They've been on the ground in Amman with their special envoy for a long time, Wolf, but it's a very difficult, unpredictable situation. You're dealing with a brutal terror group, ISIS, not known for diplomacy or willing - willingness to make compromises. They were very clear, the king of Jordan is very clear, which means that these two men, we don't know what their status is right now. But many are fearing that it's not going to be good as the sun comes up here in Tokyo.

BLITZER: Yes. All right, stand by for a moment, Will. Barbara's over at the Pentagon.

Barbara, the Jordanians are making it clear they will release this woman, this suicide bomber, who was part of a plot to kill, what, some 60 people at a hotel -- several hotel weddings that were going on in Amman, Jordan, I think back in 2005. Her suicide bomb did not go off. She's been a prisoner ever since. There you see her right now. I think the Jordanians are making it clear they're ready to release her but they want their Jordanian air force fighter pilot released and they'd like that Japanese journalist to be released at the same time. What are you hearing over at the Pentagon?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, we've been talking to a number of sources who have some direct knowledge of the debate going on across all of these governments right now. For Jordan, Will is absolutely right, the top priority for King Abdullah of Jordan is to get the Jordanian pilot back. That is something that we see in so many countries, even in this country, leaders do what they must to get their military personnel back. President Obama releasing Gitmo detainees to get Bowe Bergdahl back. The Israelis released their Palestinian prisoners to get Israeli soldiers back. This is something that is done during a state of war, if you will.

The Jordanians very sensitive to any allegation that they are negotiating with terrorists. They say this is something that goes on. Their top priority right now is to get their pilot back. And I have to tell you, I have traveled with the Jordanian military. It is a relatively small organization. King Abdullah knows the top leaders of the Jordanian military personally. The Jordanian pilot comes from a very prominent family in Jordan. Jordan is a small neighborhood. They are under threat from ISIS, from al Qaeda, from extremism. And they've taken a number of steps to try and deal with it. So their sensitives right now really are resonating.

Whether this deal can actually come to fruition, I think Will is right, it's looking very difficult as the hours pass because the Jordanian government, again, wanting its pilot back, but not willing to give this woman up for simply the single act of getting the Japanese journalist back. In the Jordanian minds, it's a little bit of two separate cases.

Wolf.

BLITZER: Yes. All right. So we're going to stay on top of this story and see what happens. And you make a good point, Barbara, the U.S. did give up five Taliban prisoners who were being held at Guantanamo Bay in exchange for Bowe Bergdahl. That was a deal that was negotiated through Qatar and, obviously, the United States was willing to do so at that time. The Jordanians clearly willing to give up this woman terrorist in exchange for that captured Jordanian pilot. We'll see if that deal works out and if they can get that Japanese journalist out at the same time. Thanks to both of you very much. We'll stay on top of this story.

So why did ISIS suddenly demand an exchange? What's behind the change of tactics? We're going to discuss this and more right after a quick break.

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BLITZER: Let's get some - let's get back to the hostage demands by ISIS right now, demanding the release of that jailed female terrorist in Jordan in exchange for a Japanese journalist and a Jordanian fighter pilot. Joining us now is Bob Baer, our CNN security and intelligence analyst, a former CIA operative. Here with me in Washington, our CNN analyst Josh Rogin, he's a columnist for "Bloomberg View."

Bob, let me start with you. This is a change for ISIS. They're demanding, what, a prisoner exchange. They want this woman terrorist released from the Jordanians. The Jordanians clearly ready to release her, but they want that Jordanian pilot. They'd also like that Japanese journalist to be released. Is this three-way swap going to happen? What do you think?

BOB BAER, CNN SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: Wolf, I think there's a good chance it will. And you have to look at it from the Islamic State's perspective. And they are -- this is something of an outreach to the Jordanian tribes. The pilot is from a prominent family from Carac (ph). The king of Jordan, as you know, depends on tribal support. In this war in Syria and Iraq, the Jordanian participation is not popular among the Jordanian tribes. So they are trying -- the Islamic State, I would imagine, this is speculation, but is trying to drive a wedge into Jordanian politics and they apparently have succeeded.

Now, as for the would-be suicide bomber, Sajida Rishawi, you know, she's an iconic figure for the Islamic State. She was prepared to commit martyrdom. I could see why they want her back. So this would be a win-win for the Islamic State if this comes off.

BLITZER: Yes, I remember that suicide attack back - I think it was back in 2005 in Amman, Jordan. It killed about 60 people, injured a whole lot more.

What are you hearing about what's going on, Josh?

JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Wolf, today on Twitter and social media sites, some major ISIS propaganda organs have already declared success. What they're saying is they've secured the release of the sister. Of course, this was denied by the Jordanian foreign minister who is asking for a proof of life before the deal goes through.

But the point here is that for ISIS, even getting the Jordanians to go this far is being used to try to achieve a propaganda victory. And as far as the Japanese go, this has totally thrown the Japanese public into a quandary about whether or not to continue support for the international mission against ISIS. So even if this deal doesn't come off, ISIS will try to spin this as a success. For the Jordanians and the Japanese, the result is quite the opposite. If the deal doesn't happen, it will be undoubtedly a blow to both of those governments' popularity.

BLITZER: Because you've heard, Bob Baer, you know, some analysts suggesting for ISIS it could be a win-win if they get this woman back, this woman terrorist, that's a win for them. If they don't get her back and they behead the Jordanian pilot and/or the Japanese journalist, from the propaganda point of view, they put that out there on social media, that video, they, for sick reasons, they see that as a win as well, right?

BAER: Well, they - I mean, you know, capturing the pilot was a win. I mean why didn't -- why wasn't he rescued? He was wandering around the desert for a couple of hours. It was a failure on the part of the coalition. And, you know, they need a victory. They lost Kobani in Syria. And this - and I wouldn't call this a charm offensive, but I think the Islamic State is starting to understand that simply cutting the heads off of hostages isn't getting them anything. And by doing a trade, they are - I wouldn't say legitimate, but getting a little bit closer to it.

BLITZER: Well, but they're still beheading people. They beheaded that other Japanese hostage just the other day apparently. BAER: Well, like I said, they've got a long way to go. I mean they're

never going to make it, but, you know, the fact that they could actually carry out a deal with the Jordanians would make them a bit - and I say a bit, more legitimate.

BLITZER: Let's talk about something else. ISIS is now claiming responsibility, as you know, Josh, for the attack in the Libyan capital of Tripoli, which is, for all practical purposes, a failed state right now. An American contractor among the victims dead. What's going on over there right now?

ROGIN: There are two competing governments in Libya, one in Tripoli and one in the eastern city of Tobrok (ph). I spoke with the prime minister of the Tripoli government yesterday after the attack. He lives in the hotel. He was there during the attack. He blamed the other government. Now, that information may or may not be true. He has a vested interest in blaming them. But the bottom line here is that both governments are calling for the United States to become more involved in the crisis in Libya. The United States has stayed on the sidelines and both governments are saying that if you do not become more involved in a solution to the crisis in Libya, then these terrorists, including ISIS, including al Qaeda, will continue to gain ground and will continue -- the threat from them will continue to grow.

BLITZER: Well, Bob Baer, I don't see the U.S. getting involved. The U.S. tried to get involved. They got rid of Gadhafi in Libya. We remember those tomahawk cruise missiles coming in, hundreds of them, costing U.S. taxpayers a couple billion dollars. And look what it's got. The U.S. embassy in Tripoli is now shut down, completely evacuated and terrorists are swimming in the pool of the ambassador there in a propaganda video. So I don't see the U.S. getting involved, do you?

BAER: We can't. There's -- it's not - it's more than just two parties there. You've got, in Durna (ph), you have the -- a group that's sworn allegiance to the Islamic state. I mean they are -- they are setting up trading grounds. I mean as far as I'm concerned, it's a basket case, Libya. We're not going to send troops in. We have a couple tier one, you know, units in there to do what they can to tampen this down. But, you know, a couple dozen people just isn't going to do it and I just don't see the United States putting ground forces in Libya when we don't have a partner. There is no government there that has any sort of real, true backing. It's just a basket case, Wolf.

BLITZER: Yes, it's a basket case. It's a failed state. But North Africa is strategically important. Very quickly.

ROGIN: Yes, no one's proposing putting U.S. ground troops in Libya. The question is, as these two sides struggle, will the U.S. play a role in bringing them together to come to a solution where everyone can live together under a new government. So far that's being left to the U.N. The U.N. is not likely to succeed. Either the U.S. is going to be a part of the solution or it's going to have to deal with an increasing problem.

BLITZER: All right, Josh, thanks very much. Bob Baer, our thanks to you as well.

Just ahead, airlines here in the United States receiving more bomb threats. Say they're coming from Twitter users. Why investigators are taking them seriously and what they're doing to stop them. Stand by.

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