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ISIS Captures Coalition Pilot; Obama's Approval Rating Jumps; Bethlehem Nativity Celebrations Tense

Aired December 24, 2014 - 13:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: One of the reasons this is so important is the coalition, U.S. pilots, everybody else, they need to know if ISIS has some type of weapon that can reach their altitudes where they fly, generally well above 15,000 to 20,000 feet. That would be a big concern. They don't look like they're going to have to change operations right now. They want to find out exactly what did bring the plane down and obviously a top priority is whatever they can do to get this man back.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN ANCHOR: And, Bob, if a U.S. pilot was shot down and captured or if the plane just came down and they were captured, what would be a U.S. search-and-rescue mission? What would that look like? Are we talking about Special Ops?

BOB BAER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Suzanne, absolutely. We have Special Forces in the area for this precise mission. They're in Kurdistan and other parts of the area. They would immediately go in to rescue the pilot. Within the moment the plane went down, they would launch. The intelligence would be fairly precise for a while. They'd have to move fast. They've done this enough. They know they could probably get it done.

MALVEAUX: Barbara, could this change how the coalition actually conducts the air strikes?

STARR: Well, again, I think it will depend on what they find as to a cause. If it looks like there's some vulnerability to ISIS and ISIS weapons, that will be a very serious matter and they may have to change the way -- they would have to change the way they fly. If there was a mechanical failure in this F-16, also they want to know exactly what happened and make sure that other aircraft are not subject to that same situation. Again, a real priority to not guilty what exactly happened here.

MALVEAUX: Bob, let's talk about some of the inroads that ISIS has made in Iraq. A few days ago, it was reported they regained control of the city of Baiji. That's home to the country's largest oil refinery. If they gain control of that refinery, is that a game- changer?

BAER: It's not a game changer, Suzanne. But what worries me is Baghdad. They haven't put together a good force to retake cities like Mosul or Baiji or hang onto it. They're still using militias, Iranian-trained militias. They don't have a cohesive army. The Kurds are doing just fine but they have a long tradition of putting troops in the field. And they've taken back Sinjar mostly. So this is going to be a very, very long struggle. I think it's years and years and years. I don't see ISIS leaving Mosul. I don't see it leaving al Anbar Province. We're going to be -- like I said, we're going to be in this for the long haul.

MALVEAUX: Barbara, that sounds pretty dismal, that prediction. Are these air strikes -- do you think that they're really working? Are they slowing the progress at least of ISIS?

STARR: Well, where you stand is where you sit, to use an old perhaps worn-out saying. They work where the bombs land at that moment in time. They will take out an ISIS target. They'll take out an ISIS formation. They'll kill ISIS fighters. But the problem here is essentially the same problem in fighting extremism in this part of the world. If ISIS can recruit now fighters to the cause, you're never going to kill your way out of this situation. You can't kill everybody. This perhaps is the great lesson of years of operating in Iraq and Afghanistan. So it's an ideological fight that is not solved by bombs. And from the beginning, I will tell you, the Pentagon has made that point, don't expect military action to solve the problem with ISIS. They are very clear that they can only have a limited effect. It's a great lesson that the military has learned over the years.

MALVEAUX: Bob, to that point that Barbara is making here, obviously, you have to have the diplomatic, you have to have the ideological tactic and strategy, if you will. But do you see in terms of the military that ultimately you might have to see U.S. boots on the ground?

BAER: I think, first of all, I'd like to say Barbara is absolutely right. You need a diplomatic political situation, which we don't have. The way the Iraqis look at it right now is the country is effectively partitioned into three parts -- the Sunni, the Shia and the Kurds. And if we intend to destroy this movement, I don't think it's a good idea, by the way. We'd have to put boots on the ground. We'd have to put a lot of force in there. And I don't think the American people are ready for that. And, again, that would take years and years to put the pieces back together, reunite Iraq. And do we want to use American troops to do that? Personally, I'd say no.

MALVEAUX: Bob Baer, thank you so much.

Barbara Starr, as well.

We really appreciate your analysis. Happy holidays.

President Obama ending the year actually in an upswing. Hear why more Americans are giving him high marks on his job performance. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MALVEAUX: President Obama wrapping up 2014 on a high note. His approval rating has taken a significant jump. Take a look at the brand-new CNN/ORC poll numbers. 48 percent of Americans now they say approve of the way the president is handling his job. That's the president's best showing since May of 2013 when he had a 53 percent approval rating. There was a major shift just in the last month. You see his approval numbers jumped four points since November.

Joining me now, CNN senior political analyst, Ron Brownstein.

Ron, talk about this bump, if you will. One of the things that I noticed was in the last press conference that he had, and he listed all of his accomplishments, how great the economy was, how things were on the mend. And people have been asking him, his supporters especially, to talk about it. Does this have anything to do with the fact that he's pushing this forward?

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: The swagger at that press conference is striking for a guy whose other party got its best representation in the House since the recession. But there's been a resurgence in activity from the White House since that election, the unilateral action on immigration, the climate deal with China, the normalization with Cuba. But the biggest factor -- clearly, also in your poll -- is you are beginning to see more Americans believe that the economy is improving, not only the decline in gas prices, the improving stock market, but also the job market. We're now at -- under the Obama presidency, the economy has already created now six times as many jobs as it did during the entire two terms under George W. Bush. And you have the possibility that by 2016, Democrats may have a different economic narrative than they did in 2014.

MALVEAUX: 38 percent of all Americans said national economics were very good or somewhat good. That was in October. It jumps now that the majority of Americans have a positive view of the economy. How does that impact where the Republicans, where the GOP Congress goes in the New Year, and how much they're able to get done?

BROWNSTEIN: I think a stronger president is in a stronger position to resist them. But they have an enormous amount of institutional leverage, control of both chambers of Congress and their biggest majority in the House since before the Depression. They are going to be very aggressive on confronting him. This gives him a little more ability to argue against some of the economic alternatives that they want to put forward. But even amidst this, the median income is lower than it was 14 years ago. That's almost unprecedented in American history. Most American families are facing a lot of economic squeeze. Even a short-term improvement in the employment picture does not automatically or rapidly eliminate that.

MALVEAUX: And how does this play out in 2016? Some people will still say, I'm not necessarily feeling it the way I should feel it, this economic recovery. Or you don't see the gap between the very rich and the very poor coming together?

BROWNSTEIN: The history is the attitudes of the outgoing president after two-term president retires has a much bigger impact on the race to succeed him than most people think. Reagan in '88, Clinton in 2000 -- his party's nominee succeeded him in '88 and 2000, exactly 88 percent of the people who disapproved of Reagan and Clinton, voted fro the other party won. And in 2008, two-thirds of the people who disapproved of Bush voted for President Obama. So it is imperative, I think, it is a critical factor for Democrats in 2016 that he be in a stronger position than he was in 2014, when only 44 percent of voters, on Election Day, said they approved of him last November. If that's the number in 2016, it is a big headwind for the next Democrat. If he's where he is today, they are in a much stronger position to contest that race.

MALVEAUX: And just months ago, they never realized they would be in this position.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

MALVEAUX: Ron, thank you so much.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, happy holidays.

MALVEAUX: Happy holidays as well.

Other news we're following, former President George H.W. Bush was taken to a Houston hospital last night after experiencing shortness of breath. His office says it was a precautionary measure. The 90-year- old was hospitalized a couple of years ago with bronchitis.

Just ahead, President Obama jump-starts diplomatic relations with Cuba. It is one of the big global headlines of 2014. We'll count down the other top ten international stories of the year.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MALVEAUX: 2014 was dominated by international headlines. The very latest, the restoration of diplomatic ties between Cuba and the United States. President Obama and Cuban leader, Raul Castro, shocked the world by announcing that they are putting 50-plus years of mutual animosity behind them.

In our series "Top 10 of 2014," Anderson Cooper looks back at the other big international headlines of the year.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN HOST, A.C. 360 (voice-over): Number 10, pro- democracy protests in Hong Kong. Demonstrators occupied the downtown financial district in what became known as the Umbrella Revolution.

(SHOUTING)

COOPER: In late September, police fired teargas and pepper spray to disperse the crowd prompting thousands more to take to the streets.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)

CROWD: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)

COOPER: After more than two months, police clear away the protest sites. The demonstrators vowing, "We will be back."

Number nine, World Cup fever. The eyes of the world on the games in Brazil.

(CHEERING)

COOPER: The host country crashes out in the semifinals. In the final, Germany beats Argentina 1-0 in a dramatic overtime win.

Number eight, freedom for two American citizens held in North Korea, Kenneth Bae and Matthew Todd Miller. Bae had been held for two years.

KENNETH BAE, FORMER NORTH KOREAN HOSTAGE: I just want to say thank you all for supporting me and standing by me during this time.

COOPER: Freedom for Bae and Miller came less than a month after the release of American Jeffrey Fowle. All this follows a bizarre disappearing act by Kim Jong-Un, the reclusive leader not seen in public for more than a month. It turns out, he may have had ankle surgery.

Number seven, tragedy and heartbreak in South Korea. A ferry capsized of the coast, killing more than 300 people, 250 of them high school students on a field trip.

(SHOUTING)

COOPER: Adding to the family's anguish, images of the captain abandoning ship. He's now serving a 36-year prison sentence.

At number six, a mass kidnapping that started a movement.

(CHANTING)

COOPER: More than 200 Nigerian girls snatched in their boarding school by the terror group Boko Haram. The Twitter #bringbackourgirls becomes an international rallying cry.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)

COOPER: But months go by. In November, the leader of Boko Haram said the girls had converted to Islam and have been married off.

Number five, Middle East tensions erupt --

(GUNFIRE)

COOPER: -- hopes for peace fail. Three Israeli teens are kidnapped and killed. A Palestinian boy kidnapped and killed, possibly in retaliation.

(GUNFIRE)

COOPER: In July, Israel launches Operation Protective edge in response to Hamas rocket attacks. After weeks of clashes and the deaths of more than 2,100 Palestinians and about 70 Israelis, a cease- fire. But the bloodshed didn't end there. On November 18th, two Palestinians with butcher knives and a gun attack a Jerusalem synagogue, killing four rabbis and a police officer. Number four, Cold War animosities heat up. Russian President Vladimir

Putin stuns the West by annexing Ukraine's Crimea region. Moscow is also accused of sending troops and equipment to help pro-Russian separatists.

And then tragedy in the skies. Malaysia Airlines flight 17 shot down over eastern Ukraine, all 298 people on board killed. The West and the Ukrainian government blame pro-Russian fighters.

Number three, Ebola ravages West Africa. The CDC announces the first cases in late March in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. By July, officials are calling it the deadliest Ebola outbreak in history. The World Health Organization says more than 6,000 people have died. Liberian national, Thomas Eric Duncan, became the first person diagnosed with Ebola in the United States. 10 cases have been treated in the U.S. with two deaths, including Duncan.

At number two, without a trace, the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370. The plane, with 239 people on board, was heading from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing when it vanished. Planes and ships scoured the initial search area but there's no sign of the missing plane. Then new satellite data takes the search in a different direction.

ABDUL RAZAK, MALAYSIA PRIME MINISTER: According to this new data, flight MH370 ended in the Southern Indian Ocean.

COOPER: Pings believed to be from the plane's black box raise hopes but don't pan out. Underwater searches come up empty and the effort to solve commercial aviation's biggest mystery goes on.

And our number one international story of 2014 --

(SHOUTING)

COOPER: -- the rise of ISIS, which started as a Qaeda splinter group emerges as a major threat.

(EXPLOSION)

COOPER: ISIS launches a brutal campaign to create an Islamic state across Iraq and Syria.

(GUNFIRE)

COOPER: Militants take control of key Iraqi cities. In August, U.S. fighter jets start bombing ISIS positions in Iraq, part of targeted air strikes authorized by President Obama.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We intend to stay vigilant and take action if these terror forces threaten our personnel or facilities anywhere in Iraq.

COOPER: The strikes also aimed at protecting minority groups, like the Yazidi refugees who ere left stranded and starving on a mountain top.

(SHOUTING)

COOPER: The extent of the barbarism by ISIS becomes more apparent. The group posts a YouTube video showing the beheading of American James Foley and another video shows the decapitation of Stephen Sotloff, then British aide workers, David Haines and Allen Henning (ph), an American, Peter Kasik (ph). America's top general has not ruled out the return of ground troops to Iraq three years after the last troops pulled out.

Anderson Cooper, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX: On a light note, we're tracking another international news story, right now, Santa on radar provided by NORAD as he begins his big journey around the world. Rudolph at the lead, you see there. He's off and just off the coast of east Africa over the Indian Ocean now. He was over the Middle East a moment ago. And thanks to our friends at NORAD, we can track his moments where he's dropping off his gifts, we understand 2.5 million this year, that is if you are nice, not naughty.

(LAUGHTER)

Coming up, Christmas Eve celebrations in Bethlehem. We'll take you there live.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

(SHOUTING)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: Christmas Eve services in Bethlehem turned tense. Scuffles break out between security and a marching band in Manager Square in the West Bank town. Thousands of pilgrims gathered at Jesus' birth place for the annual celebration, but violence is up and attendance is down after a year of war and tension in the region.

Our Ian Lee joins us live from Bethlehem.

Give us a sense of the security situation and what are they seeing on the ground now?

IAN LEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Suzanne, security is tight every year when we have these celebrations because we have delegates from around the world who come here for Midnight Mass, including Palestinian President Abbas.

The Christian community here isn't just another minority, but an integral part of the Palestinian society. I was down in the square just talking to people. Many of them very excited to be here, but a lot of thoughts on the situation of Christians not just here but also around the Middle East. Here in the Palestinian territories, the number is dwindling.

Officials say that's because of the ongoing conflict as you talked about as well as the occupation of the Palestinian territories. But we also have Iraq and Syria where ISIS is telling Christians to leave, convert or die. So for a lot of people, a lot of Christians around the region, this isn't such a joyous night. But here, down in Manger Square, they think about that as well during their celebrations -- Suzanne?

MALVEAUX: Ian, tell us more about the other celebrations, events that are planned for tonight.

LEE: There's a lot going on tonight. If you're not lucky enough to get one of the coveted Midnight Mass tickets, you'll be down here in the square. But don't worry. They have live music to entertain them. We saw earlier today marching bands. We had people singing Christmas carols as well as some clowns and Santa to entertain the people.

I got a fun factoid that I learned today for you. Manger Square, when you think of the nativity where Jesus was born, you think of a wooden barn of sorts. But I was told that where it is was actually a large cave, is what I was told, so it dispels what we traditionally think.

MALVEAUX: Nice little nugget there, Ian.

Have a good holiday and a merry Christmas to you.

That is it for me. Thank you for watching.

For our international viewers, "Amanpour" is next.

For our viewers in North America, "Newsroom" with Brooke Baldwin starts right after this quick break.

Happy holidays.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Here we go. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you so much for being here with me.

We want to begin with this, the threats from North Korean hackers --