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Clock Ticking Towards Tomorrow's Midterm Elections; Interview with VP Joe Biden on 2014, 2016; Iowa Fuels Hopes of Senate Takeover

Aired November 3, 2014 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me today. The clock is ticking and the political intrigue building as millions of Americans are now less than 24 hours from going to the polls. At stake in tomorrow's midterm elections, nothing short of the balance of power in Washington. Republican candidates are gaining ground in ten states where Senate seats are up for grabs. That means the GOP could control both houses of Congress and reduce an unpopular president to the lamest, lamest duck leader.

President Obama knows his last two years will be largely defined tomorrow. Will Democrats somehow cling to power, or will Republicans seize majority, stifle his agenda, and set the conversation for bigger prize, the 2016 presidential race?

CNN correspondents, analysts, and guests are here to walk us through tomorrow's races. Let's begin with our chief congressional correspondent Dana Bash.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Political stars came out for the final election day push. For Republicans, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie.

GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE (R), NEW JERSEY: When our Republican party is at its best, we can walk and chew gum at the same time.

BASH: For Democrats, Hillary Clinton hits three states for female Senate candidates.

HILLARY CLINTON, FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE: Who's going to be there for you? Who cares about you? Who works for you?

BASH: Bill Clinton went to Iowa.

BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I can tell you this, you need to go for progress, not protest. You need to think about what you want for the next six years.

BASH: Still Republican and Democratic sources say the GOP looks increasingly likely to seize the Senate majority. And Iowa, where James Taylor playing made it appear more peace rally than pep rally, is a big reason why. Democrats are down about Iowa's crucial Senate race after a weekend poll showed Republican Joni Ernst pulling ahead.

JONI ERNST (R), IOWA SENATE CANDIDATE: It's not just Republicans. It's independents, and it's a lot of Democrats, too, that see the need to change direction.

BASH: Iowa is so critical to the balance of power that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told volunteers in a conference call that if they lose Iowa, it will be very hard for Democrats to keep control of the Senate.

Here's why. Republicans need to flip six Senate streets take control. West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana, which was briefing in flux are now almost sure to be GOP pick-ups. Democrats are bracing for incumbent defeats in Arkansas and Colorado. Early Colorado voting shows Republicans 8 points ahead of Democratic ballots, according to U.S. Elections Project.

Democrats also say losing Alaska is likely him, though they have engaged in an unprecedented voter turnout operation, and polling is unreliable.

Democrats feel better about North Carolina and New Hampshire. But polls show both within the margin of error.

And there are wild cards. The Republican incumbent in Kansas could lose to an independent, who could caucus with either party.

GREG ORMAN (I), KANSAS SENATE CANDIDATE: Both Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid have been far too partisan for far too long.

BASH: Louisiana and Georgia are so close, they'll likely go into December and January runoffs, respectively.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH (on camera): And Democratic sources that I talked to say they do see a path to keeping the Senate but it's narrow and it is unlikely. A senior Democratic source said that, at this point, their best hope is make the margins of a Republican majority in the Senate so narrow that, in the words of this source, Mitch McConnell's time as majority leader would be a footnote to history. Carol.

COSTELLO: Dana Bash reporting live from Washington this morning. Thank you.

Should Democrats survive tomorrow's elections with a 50/50 split in the Senate, Vice President Joe Biden will become the key power broker. He will hold the critical tiebreaking vote in the Senate and grab the spotlight as he explores the idea of his own presidential run in 2016.

CNN chief political analyst Gloria Borger sat down for an exclusive interview with Vice President Biden. Good morning, Gloria.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Carol. Yesterday, we spent the day with Vice President Biden in Florida where he was out campaigning for Charlie Crist. And after a get out the vote rally in Fort Lauderdale, we sat down to talk about the election -- this one and the next one, as in 2016. And, as for tomorrow, he says he is not giving up on Democratic control of the Senate, no matter what the odds.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOE BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: First of all, I don't agree with the odds makers. I predict we're going to -- we're going to keep the Senate.

BORGER: You do?

BIDEN: I've been in 66, 67 races all told. And I don't get the feeling that the odds makers are giving.

BORGER: But what if that were to be the case?

BIDEN: Well, I don't think it will change anything in terms of what we -- what we're about. We -- we know we have to get done the last two years, and quite frankly, going into 2016 the Republican have to make a decision whether they're in control or not in control, are they going to begin to allow things to happen, or are they going to continue to be obstructionists? And I think they're going to choose to get things done.

BORGER: Will the White House have to change the way that it does business?

BIDEN: No, I don't think we have to change. I think we have to be -- I think we have to be more direct and clear about exactly or what it is we're looking to do. And look, we're ready to compromise. I think they're going to be inclined, because the message of the people, and I'm getting it all over the country, is they're tired of Washington not being able to do anything.

BORGER: So here we are out in Florida. And you were here campaigning for Charlie Crist.

BIDEN: Yes.

BORGER: And the president has stayed mostly back in D.C., largely because Democrats in red states wanted him to stay in D.C. Was that the right strategy, keeping the president off the campaign trail in a large way?

BIDEN: Look, I ran for the Senate sex times. And one of the things I know about Senate races off years and on races, and on years, the same as governor's races, is it's all local. It all gets down to what the specific issues in that -- in that district or that state is. And each senator makes a judgment about whether or not it will be -- he thinks it's helpful or hurtful.

BORGER: Yes, but this is the president of the United States. You've got a lot of Democrats up for reelection. Normally, you'd have a president out there.

BIDEN: Look, we've been seeing this a lot. There are lots of places where first term, second term, George Bush didn't show up, the older Bush, Reagan. I mean, you know, every state is different. And look, here's the deal. If you look at every single major issue in this campaign, the American public agree with our position: from federal support for infrastructure to minimum wage to marriage equality, every single time.

BORGER: Well, wait a minute. But our polls show voters are angry; they're fearful. They're frustrated, not only about domestic policy like a rollout of the president's healthcare reform but also on the handling of Ebola and ISIS. So you know, the question is, how do you fix that? I mean, the public isn't with you on that.

BIDEN: Two issues. What the republic -- the public is concerned and frightened because it's a frightening world. A lot has happened. And what happens, Gloria, is on every one of these crisis, there's all kinds of attention, understandably, from Twitter to major programs like yours.

But what happens is when the follow-up occurs, there's not much follow-up. For example, when -- when the Russians invaded, crossed the border into Ukraine, it was, "My God, it's over, and things are going to" -- you know, "Why'd they do it? To stop an election from occurring. To keep Ukraine from moving west." But all those things happened. We put it under control. Still a problem.

BORGER; So the public shouldn't be anxious about Ebola or ISIS?

BIDEN: No. No, I think the public should not be as anxious as they are, but it's understandable why they are. There is no existential threat to the United States right now. There are fewer than five cases of Ebola in the entire United States of America.

The American public is gaining confidence in the fact -- in the way this is being handled, that science does matter.

You look at what's happening with ISIS. ISIS is not an existential threat to something -- happening to someone in the United States of America. It's a serious problem overseas. But it's confusing and frightening. And it's totally understandable.

We've got to figure out -- we, the president and I, have to figure out how to better communicate exactly what's being done. That's part of the problem. That's part of the dilemma.

BORGER: Let's move to 2016 and you.

BIDEN: OK.

BORGER: I need to ask you, of course, where is your head right now on a -- on a race?

BIDEN: It's my job. There's plenty of time to make that decision.

BORGER: There is?

BIDEN: No, there really is. I mean, look, everybody talks about how, you know, everything is going to be done by the summer. And I don't see that at all. I'm confident and if I decide and I haven't made a decision.

BORGER: What is it, 50-50, 60-40?

BIDEN: It's -- I just haven't focused on -- I haven't made up my mind what I'm going to do.

BORGER: It's not about Hillary?

BIDEN: It really is not. I mean, you know me too well. I mean, if I run, I'm confident I will be able to mount a campaign that can be financed, and it will be credible and it will be serious.

BORGER: Would you run if she runs?

BIDEN: Absolutely. That's not the reason not to run or to run. The question is, am I -- am I convinced I am best positioned of anyone else to lead the country the next four years?

BORGER: Are you?

BIDEN: That's a decision I have to make.

BORGER: Everybody is talking about Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. Doesn't that kind of annoy you to a degree?

BIDEN: Not at all. I mean, it really -- I know you know me well. It really doesn't bother me at all. What I am focused on, for real -- I know I sound, more than I say. It doesn't sound real.

BORGER: Right.

BIDEN: That no, but I honest to God have not made up my mind. It's just that basic, that simple.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BORGER (on camera): So the vice president really not letting us know whether -- what his plans are there for 2016. And also clearly, Carol, not conceding control of the Senate to the Republicans at this point, but also saying, you know what, I think we have to open the door to compromise.

COSTELLO: Well, why did he say that, "open the door to compromise"? I would probably venture to guess not many voters feel that that's possible anymore.

BORGER: Well, you know, I think clearly it's a strategy they have to take because they have no other choice. They have to kind of say, OK, we're grown-ups. There are few things we can do with you, like, say, corporate tax reform, fixing roads and bridges in this country. Maybe we can agree to do that. But then he said, look, we're willing to compromise. But the onus

there is on the Republicans, to see whether they can get their act together. And of course he's right on both fronts. Because the Republicans, if they do end up controlling the Congress, I think, will have a certain amount of responsibility to prove that, in fact, they can govern.

COSTELLO: They can govern, get things done, and not have all their bills vetoed by President Obama, right?

BORGER: Well, that's right. That's right.

COSTELLO: Gloria Borger, many thanks to you. I appreciate it.

Let's talk about this some more with CNN political commentator and Democratic strategist, Donna Brazile, CNN political analyst and editor in chief of "The Daily Beast", John Avlon, CNN political commentator and Republican strategist, Ana Navarro. Welcome to all of you.

ANA NAVARRO, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Good morning.

COSTELLO: Good morning. So, Donna, is Joe Biden going to run in 2016?

DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, we'll know soon after the 2014 election. Look, I think Joe Biden has cause to run if he decides to. He's an incredible leader, champion for the middle class; he's a great vice president. But clearly there are other candidates who are thinking about running as well.

COSTELLO: Yes, there are. So, Ana, can -- if Biden does decide to run, we know he said some -- well, he's one for the gaffes, right? Can he get over that and successfully run?

NAVARRO: Look, I don't think it's going to be the gaffes that stop Joe Biden; I think it's going to be Hillary Clinton that stops Joe Biden. He's saying what he has to say right now, and the right thing to say, which is my decision is not going to be based on what Hillary Clinton does. But come on, we all know his decision is going to be based on what Hillary Clinton does. Because frankly they both come are from the Democratic establishment; they both eat from the same slice of pie. If he were positioned like, let's say, Elizabeth Warren, to the left of Hillary Clinton, he could think about challenging her. But at this point, I think it's going to be very, very difficult for him if she does decide to run.

And I think that's going to be the biggest obstacle, not the gaffes, which frankly I think everybody is used to and makes him, in a weird way, kind of endearing and very genuine.

COSTELLO: Oh, interesting. Although, John, he does serve under a very unpopular president, right? And much of this election is very much about President Obama. In fact, remember back when Tip O'Neill famously said all politics is local? As in, voters care about local issues, not big, intangible ideas. Well, turns out, that is so 1982 thanks to President Obama. Example, what I'm talking about, this is a campaign ad for the Georgia

Senate.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NARRATOR: The issue is trust. Do you trust President Obama and the Washington politicians to deal with the problems we face? Too much debt, not enough jobs, terrorism and Ebola coming at us from overseas.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: So John, Georgia has among the highest unemployment rates in the entire country. Is fear now the winning strategy?

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. Well, couple things. First of all, reality check. In midterms, the opposition party always tries to hang local candidates on the incumbent president because they're usually unpopular right now. Happened to George W. Bush in 2006, when Democrats were running, God knows. And how many times have Republicans tried to tie Democrats to Bill Clinton, particularly in the South?

This cycle, the 2014 race, is being conducted primarily in red states to purple states where President Obama is not that popular. So there's nothing that surprising about that strategy. What is significant are local factors like the economy, which in Georgia has been struggling. Now whether -- how much of that is on the Republican governor, I think we'll see in terms of turnout.

Final reality check here, Carol. I mean, yes, President Obama has got a floor around 40 and he's been hovering there. But this really is -- Democrats have ceded this ground in part by refusing to make a national case, by saying essentially hands off to a series of local races. Well, it's tough to beat something with nothing. And you are seeing a little bit of the impact on the vacuum of that strategic decision. And it may have real impact on turnout tomorrow.

COSTELLO: Ana, you heard Joe Biden. He said people shouldn't be as anxious as they are. Democrats need to figure out a better way to communicate. You could say that's the understatement of the year, yes?

NAVARRO: Yes. I mean, look, I think people are anxious there. He admitted it and said it's a frightening world out there. There's a lot of things happen. They get on TV, these frightening things.

They're on social media. They become big things, and everybody is following them. And there's much more awareness of frightening things happening in the world. There's also been a lot of lack of trust on our government agencies to be able to handle crisis. I think a that's one of the key issues right now. Management ability, crisis management, which a lot of Americans right now feel has been a failed approach by this administration.

COSTELLO: Yes, President Obama is to blame in many voters minds. I mean, Donna, it's difficult to cite another president who is so

toxic to his own party. Kentucky Democrat Alison Grimes would not even say whether or not she voted for him. Bill Clinton is telling people Obama is a lame duck.

Is there something that Mr. Obama could have done better to quiet the critics?

BRAZILE: Well, first of all, Carol, in 40 of 43 midterm elections we've had since 1840, presidents who were in the White House lost seats in Congress. So, history is a guide. We know Democrats will lose seats, especially because in six of these so-called red states, President Obama lost in 2012. Mitt Romney captured seven.

So, if we get away from the math of it, I think what we need to focus on is people are frustrated with Washington D.C., and because he is president, they're frustrated with the president no matter what political party he's in.

So, I wouldn't blame it all on President Obama because toxins are all around Washington D.C. They must be coming from Potomac.

Here's what Democrats should do in closing hours of the campaign. They should tell voter what is they stand for. They want to raise the minimum wage, they want to help middle class, they want to make sure students are able to negotiate loans.

These are issues that are popular. And, of course, we want equal pay for women.

COSTELLO: But --

BRAZILE: So, they need to talk about those and leave Washington, D.C. out of the equation.

COSTELLO: But, John, didn't they do that in these elections?

BRAZILE: Not really.

AVLON: Yes. I mean, I look, again, you can't beat something with nothing. So, Democrats should be playing off. Both parties should put forward positive agenda. What we've seen instead is both party secretly hoping the other screws up. That's how they sneak to victory. That is not a confident strategy for re-election or democracy.

If voters are angry as I think they are at dysfunction and division in Washington, you know, it's fascinating to see Mitch McConnell make a closing argument based on if you elect him in Washington you'll end gridiron. That's sort of like, you know, an arsonist run for the fire department.

There are a lot of themes here. Voters ultimately get the final say. Polls are polls. Election Day is what matters and whether the turnout exceed certain margins in certain states, particularly Latino voters in some of these states could skew off all the results we're seeing. But that's going to be a tough night for Democrats just because of the nature of this cycle. That's the reality of it.

COSTELLO: All right. We'll leave it there. John Avlon, Donna Brazile, Ana, thanks to all of you.

I'm back in a minute.

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COSTELLO: The state of Iowa fuelling Republicans hope that they will take over the Senate on Election Day. Here's why. This new "Des Moines Register" poll shows Republican candidate Joni Ernst surging ahead of Democrat Bruce Braley by seven points. If Ernst can pull off a victory tomorrow, she is set to make history.

Here's CNN's Wolf Blitzer.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): If Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst wins, she'll be the first woman ever to survive Iowa in Congress. Ernst was relatively unknown until she spent $9,000 to run her first TV ad about -- and get this -- castrating hogs.

ERNST: Let's make them squeal.

BLITZER: It went viral and helped Ernst win a tough Republican primary. Now, she's in dead heat to win the general election.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: But Ernst has to beat Bruce Braley first, the candidate who's made his share of gaffes. The first lady did not help. She infamously mispronounced his name many times.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHELLE OBAMA, FIRST LADY OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm beyond thrilled to be here to support your next Iowa from Iowa, our friend Bruce Bailey. We need to elect leaders like Bruce Bailey. Could swing for Bruce Bailey to vote.brucebailey.com. That's vote.brucebailey.com. Or even better, you can --

(CROSSTALK)

OBAMA: Braley, what did I say?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Oh, wait, it's Braley.

I'm joined now by Jennifer Jacobs. She's chief politics reporter for the "Des Moines Register".

Welcome, Jennifer.

JENNIFER JACOBS, DES MOINEST REGISTER: Hi. COSTELLO: OK. So before we dive in, we have to dive into something

else, because some new video posted by "BuzzFeed" shows Iowa's retiring Democratic Senator Tom Harkin making some comments about Ernst. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TOM HARKIN (D), IOWA: There's sort of this sense that, you know, Joni Ernst, she is really attractive. She sounds nice. I got to thinking about that. I don't care if she's as good looking as Taylor Swift or nice as Mr. Rogers, but if she votes like Michelle Bachmann, she's wrong for the state of Iowa.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: OK. So, here's how Ernst responded on "FOX and Friends" this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JONI ERNST (R), IOWA SENATE CANDIDATE: I was very offended that Senator Harkin would say that. I think it's unfortunate that he and many of their party believe you can't be a real woman if you're conservative and you're female. If my name had been John Ernst attached to my resume, Senator Harkin would not have said those things.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: And she's right. This is not something you say when describing a woman candidate because it sounds sexist. It's sexist.

How will Iowans take this do you think Jennifer?

JACOBS: Well, I know Republicans are saying it was offensive, but Democrats have been very frustrated all along. And Tom Harkin was just voicing something they had been thinking, which is that independence had been going to Joni Ernst based on her personality instead of the issues. They applaud Senator Harkin for pointing out, listen, don't just vote on someone because they're attractive or they seem nice. Make sure you pay attention to how they are on issues.

COSTELLO: So, you think this might energize Democrats?

JACOBS: If he had made this comment -- if this had been released a month ago, it would have had more of an effect on this race. I think it's too late to have much of an effect.

COSTELLO: Because it's not like Joni Ernst -- I mean, she's a lieutenant colonel in the National Guard. She served in the state Senate. She's no lightweight.

JACOBS: No, not at all. In fact, our poll this past weekend showed almost as many Iowa voters think she has as much depth on issues as Braley. There's a number of different characteristics and issues that she's strongest on, including they think she's best on national security and foreign conflict issues. They think she's best on national debt and some other really important topics.

COSTELLO: And let's just face it. Bruce Braley hasn't made the best campaign. He's made a few series gaffes of his own, right?

JACOBS: Right. There was a day back in March when Republicans released the video of him seemingly saying a farmer from Iowa couldn't be qualified to chair the judiciary committee. That has really stuck in voter's minds. And our pollster pointed out that he never had a good response or that he never batted it down, and he let the damage sink in, and that was also the day that Joni Ernst released the squeal ad, about hog castration and cutting spending.

And our pollster pointed out, you know, he never had a valid comeback for that either. That was the advertisement that launched her to popularity. She's just been growing in popularity in Iowa since then.

COSTELLO: So, if Iowans elect a Republican senator, what does that mean for 2016?

JACOBS: As far, we would have two Republican senators working here in Iowa. It could have influence here for sure. We're going to probably going to have a Republican governor again. Looks like Terri Branstad is going to sail to a win. So, this could be, you know, we are a purple state but we could be leaning red in 2016.

COSTELLO: All right. Jennifer, she's the chief political reporter with "Des Moines Register". Thank you so much for your insight, I appreciate it.

I'll be back in a minute.

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