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THE LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER

U.S.-led Airstrikes Brought Almost No Change to ISIS's Success in Iraq and Syria; Interview with Ret. Brig. General Mark Kimmitt about Fighting ISIS; No End In Sight For Hong Kong Protests; Mark Kelly Calls For Tougher Gun Laws

Aired September 30, 2014 - 16:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


TAPPER: Welcome back to "THE LEAD." Now, for our world lead ISIS continuing to attack Iraq as it moves across that country and Syria despite airstrikes aimed at stopping the terrorist group. So where is ISIS headed next? Our Tom Foreman is at the magic wall. Tom.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The worst skeptics out there, they are going to say, ISIS is headed wherever it wants to head because of what we've seen. We've seen so much coverage of these airstrikes against ISIS since early August, missiles dropped and bombs on command and control structures, training facilities, troops, convoys and oil production sites. But now let's consider this battlefield from ISIS's point of view and look at all of the places they can claim to have launched successful strikes during that same period of time, seizing towns and strategically important places, overrunning Iraqi military bases, wiping out convoys and positioning themselves for even more games, among other things, clearly trying to go forward with the plan to encircle Baghdad.

Now, some fighters with ISIS have suggested, they prepared for weeks ahead of these airstrikes dispersing their forces, hiding the weapons and preparing on the fight. And if you look at the ground, once again, held by ISIS before the air strikes began in July and you look at the change between July and now, watch closely, almost no change at all. Very little difference and absolutely, Jake, there's no indication that for all of this firepower that ISIS is on the run.

TAPPER: And that would suggest two things. One, that the Pentagon meant it when they said this isn't going to be a matter of weeks. This could even be a matter of years. And two, the military argument that airstrikes alone are not going to do this, they need ground trips of some sort. Beyond just Iraq, that might be a cogent point as well.

FOREMAN: The airstrikes are undoubtedly hurting ISIS in some fashion, but they have adapted - it's very clear they have and, again, look at that strike pattern there. They are striking with almost the same frequency that the coalition is striking. They are clearly not cowed. They are clearly not just going into hiding.

TAPPER: It's, of course, early, as the military keeps pointing out. Tom Foreman, thank you, so much.

I appreciate it. When we come back, Hong Kong bracing for thousands, maybe even a million protesters in the streets. As a national holiday brings a day off for workers. Now, one Chinese leader is promising China is not going to back down. But as daybreak comes to Hong Kong, are police ready?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Welcome back to "THE LEAD," I'm Jake Tapper returning to our world lead, the fight against ISIS. So far the United States has been limiting itself to attacking from the air, but that, of course allows ISIS to move people and equipment out of the way. Are the air strikes working?

Joining me to discuss the strategy, is Retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, a former deputy director for plans and strategy at CENTCOME. I believe you had a focus on the Middle East, if I'm not mistaken. General, I want to ask you, the Daily Biz is reporting that American forces almost attacked Free Syrian Army facilities, the Free Syrian Army that, of course, is the moderate Syrians that we are supporting - they almost - so perhaps because of poor communications with the Free Syrian Army, was that what the FSA says. Shouldn't the coalition be doing a better job of coordinating its attacks with the FSA?

BRIG. GEN. MARK KIMMITT, (RET.), FORMER ASST. SECY. OF STATE AND POLITICAL MILITARY AFFAIRS: Well, I think they are doing their best, but if we have the limitation, the self-imposed limitation of not putting people on the ground to work with the Free Syrian Army to direct those strikes, these are the kinds of things that can happen in warfare.

TAPPER: I want to ask you about comments made by an Air Force Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff Major General Jeffrey Harrigian. He said to reporters at a briefing on Monday, quote, about ISIS, they are now dispersing themselves to allow themselves and their situations to be more survivable, if you will, which requires us to work harder to locate them. In other words, ISIS is adapting to the U.S. coalition strategy. I guess that's to be expected but does that mean the U.S. and the coalition need to change the strategy at all?

KIMMITT: No. I think it means we've got to change tactics. Look, nobody should be surprised that they are adapting to the airstrikes. That's exactly what you'd expect the enemy to do on the ground. My question is, what's - how are we going to adapt to the point where the enemy is now focused on how we're operating. This warfare is a matter of adapting and readapting to what the enemy is doing. That's certainly what they are doing to us. I question whether we're doing that to them.

TAPPER: Do you think the airstrikes are working? Do you think that they are folly (ph) without U.S. ground troops?

KIMMITT: Well, I think that the strategy of relying on air alone, without it being directed by perhaps U.S. Special Forces, perhaps by Special Forces JTACs, has put us to the limit now where the enemy is adapting to what we're doing. But I think there's the larger issue, and the larger issue is, this notion that we've taken any type of U.S. support on the ground off the table. That means our -- probably the long pole in our tent in our strategy, if not the fatal flaw, is reliance on foreign rebels to be winning this war for us. And I think that's going to come to haunt us.

TAPPER: One last question, general. There was a policy or is a policy for U.S. drone strikes that the White House set up and announced last year that they would not act unless there was "near certainty that there wouldn't be any civilian casualties." The White House told them, Mike Isikoff of Yahoo News today that this policy of near certainty that there won't be civilian casualties does not apply to Syria and Iraq. There are, of course, reported civilian casualties in Syria. Do you think that that's the right decision?

KIMMITT: Well, I do. But I think this notion of near certainty may be presenting a false expectation to the American people. Every time we do these types of strikes, there's a collateral damage estimation done. There are parameters put on the probability of collateral damage coming about. If it doesn't meet those parameters, we don't do the strike. But to suggest that we can do a clean war with near certainty that we won't have civilian casualties I think simply is misleading the American people. We haven't done that in the history of warfare and I don't think that history has changed.

TAPPER: Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt in Cairo, Egypt, thank you so much for your time. Appreciate it.

Also in the world lead, another massive protest brewing in Hong Kong. Tens of thousands of protesters have been braving powerful rain storms and an onslaught of tear gas and pepper spray as they enter day four of demonstrations in a movement primarily led by students in Hong Kong, calling for a true democracy without interference from Beijing. That's something that was promised by the Chinese years ago. Even more people are expected to turn out today as the country celebrates China's National Day, that's the holiday. Let's go straight to the ground where CNN senior international correspondent Ivan Watson is reporting live. Ivan?

IVAN WATSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Jake, it's just before 5:00 a.m. here. It's raining and, as you can see, these demonstrators are not going home. It's the third straight night now that they have been occupying this highway right next to the government headquarters in Hong Kong as well as other locations around Hong Kong and they are not leaving, despite the rain, despite a warning coming from Hong Kong's top official on Tuesday who said that this is illegal and that the people should go home immediately and adding that China would not compromise with demonstrators. Now, the opposition leaders who have helped ...

(NO SOUND)

TAPPER: We're obviously ...

WATSON: To organize some of this, they have come out and ratcheted up their demands. Not - the system for projected elections (INAUDIBLE) more the top official here in Hong Kong to resign. So, b0oth sides digging in, Jake. TAPPER: And obviously protesters are anticipating they are going to

be more protesters than usual today because it's a holiday. China's National Day. Does it look like there will be a bigger crowd than normal? And how nervous are people about the threat of violence from the Hong Kong and ultimately the Chinese authorities?

WATSON: I think it's fair to say that there is a bigger crowd at this hour of the morning. You know, the pattern we've seen is that the crowds like ballooned before midnight and 11:00 and 10:00 p.m. at night. And they tend to go down towards the morning hours, but, yes, Wednesday being a national holiday, many more people can afford to skip work. They are not going to be working. So they can come out here. So the numbers and especially there have been these kinds of flash torrential downpours. So -- and people stayed through them. They held up their umbrellas which have become a symbol of this uprising, of this civil disobedience movement. The umbrellas that were used to protect demonstrators over the weekend against pepper spray and tear gas coming from the riot police, now have been used to protect against the elements. One of the concerns is what will the security forces do? What will the police do? Well, their more heavy- handed tactics over the weekend only backfired, Jake.

It propelled more people to come out into the streets. So the security forces, the government authorities here at a bit of an impasse. If they use more force, they threaten to bring more support to the side of these demonstrators -- Jake.

TAPPER: Ivan Watson, thank you. Stay safe.

Joining us now from Hong Kong is Edward Tsoi. He is a protester who has been in the streets with the Occupy Central Organization. Edward, thanks for joining us.

Do you think that the government in Beijing, the Chinese government, will eventually give you and your fellow protesters what you are asking for, a democratic elections?

EDWARD TSOI, HONG KONG DEMOCRACY PROTESTER: To be honest, I have no idea. We can only hope for the best and that's the only way that we can fight for genuine real democracy right now. It's the only options.

We have tried different means and we have tried -- our legislative councilor have tried to talk to the central government, it didn't work. We have tried peaceful demonstration just for one day. It didn't work so we have to do this movement to try to force the government to hear what we are really talking about.

TAPPER: Tell us what it's like out there in the street. What does it feel like? Is it exciting? Are you scared? Obviously the memory of Tiananmen Square is not that far behind. What's the emotion out there?

TSOI: For today it's exciting for sure because we are tens and thousands of people from all across Hong Kong. It's exciting and it's a bit (inaudible). But for the last two days, it's a bit terrifying I could say.

Because according to my memory, it's the first time for the Hong Kong police to actually launch tear gas on its own people after the hand- over. So we are terrifying. We don't know what the government will do next. And it's a peaceful demonstration.

We only have umbrellas and face masks that you use for surgical. So we don't have any weapons. We are highly disciplined. We only recycle our own trash and rubbish. That's insane that they still launched tear gas on us. So that's ridiculous.

TAPPER: I would think that would be scary especially because the Chinese government not this particular one but in general back in 1989, it showed a willingness to actually kill protesters, to stop the peaceful demonstrations that were going on in Tiananmen Square. How much do you guys think about Tiananmen Square while you're out there?

TSOI: I hope they won't do the same because the whole world is watching and more people that come out so we want more Hong Kong citizens to join us. We now have tens of thousands of people. I don't think they can kill that many people.

TAPPER: Now, as you know, the Hong Kong -- China's handpicked leader of Hong Kong, executive Hong Kong, has accused protesters of letting things get out of control and they say you need to go home now. What would it take for the protesters to go home? Do you have any -- is there any suggestion at all that anybody would heed what they are saying?

TSOI: We are more than happy to go home. We are Hong Kong people. We don't belong on the street. We work in the office and then we go home and hang out. We don't protest unless it's necessary. So for the government to resolve this situation, the only way is to respond to our request.

We want genuine democracy for universal suffrage. Not just casting our votes on some crazy candidates. We want to have our rights to hand-pick out own leader.

TAPPER: What do you expect to happen in the coming days?

TSOI: I hope the government is going to respond to its own people. Otherwise, we will still be here and we can do this for next week again.

TAPPER: All right, Edward Tsoi, a protester, Occupy Hong Kong. Best of luck with your demonstration, best of luck trying to get the basic Democratic rights that all people in the world should have. Thank you.

Coming up on THE LEAD, some breaking news, the first case of Ebola diagnosed in the United States. We're just getting details on this breaking story. We'll have that for you coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) TAPPER: Welcome back to THE LEAD. We are following some breaking news now. We have just learned that the Centers for Disease Control is confirming the very first Ebola case in the United States diagnosed. The outbreak, of course, has crippled several countries in West Africa where there have been more than 6,000 reported cases and more than 3,000 deaths.

In about 30 minutes, the CDC will give us the new details on this first reported U.S. case. We know that a patient in Dallas was put in isolation recently after showing Ebola-like symptoms.

Of course, an American doctor who was exposed to the virus is now being treated with an experimental vaccine in Bethesda, Maryland as well. We're going to keep an eye on the story and bring you all of the information about it as soon as it comes to us.

Now to other national news, authorities in Louisville have just apprehended the teenage suspect they believed open fire at Fern Creek High School injuring one student. That attack sadly was the second school shooting of the day.

The other was near Charlotte, North Carolina. Fortunately, in neither case does it appear anyone was seriously injured. Certainly no one killed as of now that we know of. But ending this seemingly endless stream of shootings in schools and campuses and public places across America.

That is the goal of my next guest, former astronaut, Mark Kelly and his wife, former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords have been working on gun control and other way to stop this epidemic of gun violence since she was shot during a campaign event in 2011 in Tucson, Arizona, when she was a congresswoman.

In his new book "Enough," Kelly writes that he supports the second amendment, the right to bear arms, but he proposes restrictions that he says should appeal to gun lovers.

Mark, thanks so much for joining us. Your passion for this is obvious. What can be done to be prevent the sort of shooting we saw today and obviously we don't know the details of these case. So let me broaden it out. When you hear about school shootings or other mass shootings in public, what law can actually stop them?

MARK KELLY, "ENOUGH OUR FIGHT TO KEEP AMERICA SAFE FROM GUN VIOLENCE": Well, you're never going to stop all of them. I mean, that's clear. We've got 33 or so murders every single day from gun violence in this country. But we can impact a lot of them by doing some common sense things that do not affect responsible gun owners.

So those things are having an expanded background check system to make it difficult for criminals and dangerously mentally ill to get their hands on a gun. Right now, there's a great option for them is to go to a gun show or over the internet.

There are laws that we could do to improve and combat gun trafficking, which is a big problem in this country. How about mental illness? Often you see with mass shootings, there will be some component of mental illness.

The mental health system of our country has been dismantled over the last 20 years and I will certainly agree with the NRA on that point is that mental illness is a serious issue. So there is actually a lot we can. We are not going to affect every one of these cases, but we can put a big dent in them.

TAPPER: I think one of the criticisms of the gun control movement and its ability to get anything passed is, at least in the wake of your wife's tragedy in Tucson in which others were killed -- I should note, and then, of course, there was the movie theater shooting in Aurora, and then in Newtown.

None of the measures that I heard proposed in any serious way on Capitol Hill actually would have done anything to have stopped those horrific tragedies.

It seemed that Democratic lawmakers put down what they thought would pass and tried to pass that even though there wasn't a direct cause and effect. Do you think maybe trying to find legislation that would have affected Tucson, Aurora, Newtown, that might be more successful?

KELLY: Well, I think it depends on how much detail you look into each individual case. What happened with Gabby and her constituents in Tucson, Arizona. Here was a guy that was clearly mentally ill. The community college knew, his parents knew.

He didn't get any treatment. He didn't get adjudicated mentally ill. If those things had happened and he went to a federally licensed firearms' dealer and the federal government knew he was mentally ill, he wouldn't have been able to buy a gun there, but what is to stop him from going down the street?

Yes, it does get complex when you are looking at each specific case, but clearly in the cases of the mass shootings, mental health is an aspect of that. But it makes common sense, right now 60 percent of all gun sales occur with a background check.

Why do we allow the other 40 percent to happen? We know that people fail a background check in a gun store. Why do we give them an option of going somewhere else? We shouldn't.

TAPPER: I want to talk about the political organization that you and your wife have recently ran and took down this television ad in Arizona. Let's run that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: My daughter was just 19 when she told her boyfriend their relationship was over and he got a gun and he shot her and my husband. He had threatened her before. I knew. I just knew.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: "Politico" said of that ad, Gabby Giffords gets mean. What did you think of that headline? KELLY: Well, I didn't think the headline was really all that fair. We agree it was a tough ad, but the ad was to point out that policies affect people's lives.

And we have people in this country every single day, every single day that die because there are not sufficient laws that protect them. And it's important that the voter knows a candidate's position on these laws. So that's what that ad did.

TAPPER: Right.

KELLY: Everything in the ad was accurate and it pointed out this candidate's position and when the candidate changed their position --

TAPPER: They took it down.

KELLY: Before the ad was supposed to come down, we took it down.

TAPPER: Mark Kelly, thank you so much. Say hi to your wife for us, please. That's it for THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper. I now turn you over to Wolf Blitzer in "THE SITUATION ROOM."