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CNN SUNDAY MORNING

Schwarzenegger Leads in Recall Polls

Aired October 5, 2003 - 08:09   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KELLI ARENA, CNN ANCHOR: Turning to the political circus in the Golden State under the big tent of the California recall, polls are showing Arnold Schwarzenegger is still the ringleader, while the current governor is a less popular attraction. So who will receive the standing ovation on Tuesday?
For more on the poll forecast we go to our very own Bob Franken -- Bob.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: How many metaphors can we pack into one week?

ARENA: Millions. Give me five more minutes and...

FRANKEN: Well, yes, it's been called a circus, but, of course, the stakes are very high. And it's a very volatile operation right now.

There has been a poll that was taken by Knight-Ridder and NBC News, the only one that covers the area that the number of days where some disclosures had come out that might be damaging to Arnold Schwarzenegger. The disclosures about an alleged quotation he had about Hitler, expressing admiration, that has been somewhat retracted now. But nevertheless, that was out there. And, of course, the continuing litany of charges from women who say that he groped them, made unwelcome sexual advances over a period of decades.

Now, this poll is a Wednesday through Saturday poll, so it covers more than just the area covered by these allegations. Nevertheless, what it shows is that Arnold Schwarzenegger has continued to maintain a lead and that Gray Davis has continued to face the prospect of recall.

Regarding recall, "Would you vote to replace Gray Davis?" Fifty- four percent said they definitely would vote or probably would vote yes. That would mean that he would leave office. Who is going to in fact win if he was put out of office? Arnold Schwarzenegger continues to be the favorite of 37 percent, Mr. Cruz Bustamante 29, and Tom McClintock, the other Republican, 15.

Now, Schwarzenegger has decided to wage a counteroffensive with all of these charges, particularly the ones concerning the women. He and his aides have been charging that it's part of a smear campaign; he calls it "puke politics." He says that even the "Los Angeles Times" has very, very -- has been involved in this, has in fact timed its disclosures to the end of the election when it might have the biggest impact, something that is vehemently denied by the "Los Angeles Times."

We still are waiting to see if the last couple of days are going to show any result of all of this. We can tell you that the "Oakland Tribune," a paper that last Sunday endorsed Arnold Schwarzenegger, came out with an editorial yesterday, saying it was withdrawing the editorial because of all of these charges, saying "We can no longer in good conscience recommend him for governor."

So it is very volatile. We're watching for the internal polls from the various parties to try and get a handle on things. But the biggest handle on things will come, of course, Tuesday, when there's an election -- Kelli.

ARENA: All right, Bob. Well, we're counting on you to keep on top of it for us. Thanks very much.

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